Rampant Buffalo Posted May 12 Posted May 12 4 minutes ago, PBF81 said: I hear ya. As you likely know, I'm of the mindset that Diggs was more a product of Brady's use of him than of anything else. We're expected to believe that from the Cincy game on 11/5 to the Jets game on 11/19, a mere two weeks, that Diggs "lost a step" to the extent that his production was halved. My sensibilities don't allow for such drastically unprecedented drop in performance barring some major injury. No WR can control the number of targets he gets. But he can control his catch %, at least up to a point. I suspect Diggs may have experienced a decrease in his catch % as the season progressed. What I do know for sure is that in the playoff loss, Diggs had 3 catches on 8 targets, for 21 yards. Clearly, the reason for the low production in that game was the low catch %, rather than any lack of targets. Quote Also, as I've pointed out to others, it's Brady's use of Diggs. A great example is the nfl.com highlight reel for the week 18 @ Fins game. In that game Diggs had his man beaten twice, once badly with Allen overthrowing him in a big way on a deep fly. That would have been a TD and his stats would have reflected that. There was another deep throw that he caught, but it was underthrown, and had Allen not underthrown it, it would have been a TD too. While Allen is a great QB, he sometimes overthrows or underthrows deep passes. But that weakness of Allen's is not new, and shouldn't cause a change in Diggs' stats. Quote On a bunch of other plays you can see Diggs running shorter routes near, or even behind, the LoS, while numerous other WRs run the deeper stuff. So it's not like he even has a chance on those plays. That's a fair point, and is a legitimate knock against Brady. Quote There's complete agreement there, but consider, the fact that we're even talking about it like that is troubling. What, professional football coaches can't figure that out? It's common sense. Hell, even the announcers reference it sometimes. Ergo, questions need to start being asked. Agreed. It is frustrating, when coaches don't appear to see things that are glaringly obvious. Quote I would also question whether we actually have more reliable pass catchers. Coleman's the big add there and I'm simply not seeing it in his "every pass" video that I'm in the process of editing down for both the good and the bad. I don't think that any honest person watching that video would disagree. Same for Samuel whose career Catch% is 65.4%, which is well below average, particularly for a WR whose career YPR is 10.7 and very much in the target area for the high-percentage shorter passing game. His Success% is also below average, and so is Coleman's last season at FSU. It sounds like your analysis of Coleman was far more in-depth than what I've done. Your more pessimistic view of him could well be correct. My guy was Ladd McConkey, and I was sad when the Bills didn't take him at 33. One thing I will say in Samuel's defense. He didn't exactly have All World QB play, so that's going to push down his completion % through no fault of his own. Quote
NewEra Posted May 12 Posted May 12 1 hour ago, PBF81 said: Moss was the same, with superior collegiate accolades in both, and we see how much and how they used him. Will it be a repeat? If it is, why would anyone assume that a similar RB with a lesser draft profile, and quite frankly with largely uncoachable weaknesses, would excel in such a role? To my eye, Davis was a better RB than Moss in college. Much better lateral mobility, better burst and hands. I think moss may have brought slightly more power, but I hated that pick when we made it. Surprised that we went RB in rd 4 (was hoping rd 5), but I like the player that we drafted and I think he’ll be our starter going into his 3rd year 2 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted May 13 Posted May 13 1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said: No WR can control the number of targets he gets. But he can control his catch %, at least up to a point. I suspect Diggs may have experienced a decrease in his catch % as the season progressed. What I do know for sure is that in the playoff loss, Diggs had 3 catches on 8 targets, for 21 yards. Clearly, the reason for the low production in that game was the low catch %, rather than any lack of targets. Well yeah, but also where they were playing him. I just watched the KC playoff game and there were times when he was lined up in the backfield and even ran a sweep. I mean really? Most of the time he appeared to be a decoy, but I only saw a few deep routes. Either way, if you're interested in his game-by-game catch %, they're all in his game logs. 1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said: While Allen is a great QB, he sometimes overthrows or underthrows deep passes. But that weakness of Allen's is not new, and shouldn't cause a change in Diggs' stats. Well, at least one of the passes (aka targets) wasn't anywhere near catchable. The others weren't all on the highlight video. 1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said: It sounds like your analysis of Coleman was far more in-depth than what I've done. Your more pessimistic view of him could well be correct. My guy was Ladd McConkey, and I was sad when the Bills didn't take him at 33. Thanks, and I'd be incredibly interested in your take after watching the video. Here it is if you've got 22 minutes. If you do watch it, take note as to how many passes he touches that you consider to be catchable, particularly given the narrative that he's hands in traffic, aka "contested catches." I was simply hoping that we'd draft a WR capable of flying, if for no other reason than to give us a dimension to our passing game that it now appears we do not have. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOA_jjDOCr4&t=11s I also read this piece which counters the narrative and is well supported and supports the points that I've made. In fact it was one of my sources of info. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect 1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said: One thing I will say in Samuel's defense. He didn't exactly have All World QB play, so that's going to push down his completion % through no fault of his own. Well no, but he did have QBs the last couple of seasons that weren't bad at the high-percentage stuff that he's suited to. He had more targets this and last season than everyone on our team except for Diggs in '23 and Diggs and Davis in '22. Remember, the areas where Samuel runs routes are not Allen's strong suit. Allen's pretty average if even that in that high-percentage short-medium game. That means a lot of QBs are better than he is there. Again, would love to get your opinion on that Coleman every pass video. 1 Quote
EasternOHBillsFan Posted May 13 Posted May 13 5 hours ago, 3rdand12 said: I can see Davis becoming the 2nd back up , and change of pace guy. Between the tackles a bit more perhaps than we would like Cook to run ? Ty will be the 3rd up. I like TY plenty , btw. But I am leaning in that Davis is going to become very good and quickly. Different back than Cook. So complimentary I guess Go Bills I love the cuts and jukes that Johnson provided last season, essentially sending Murray down the depth chart. Adding ADDITIONAL talented and cheap depth at RB is ideal. 1 Quote
Rampant Buffalo Posted May 13 Posted May 13 3 hours ago, PBF81 said: Well yeah, but also where they were playing him. I just watched the KC playoff game and there were times when he was lined up in the backfield and even ran a sweep. I mean really? Most of the time he appeared to be a decoy, but I only saw a few deep routes. Either way, if you're interested in his game-by-game catch %, they're all in his game logs. Well, at least one of the passes (aka targets) wasn't anywhere near catchable. The others weren't all on the highlight video. Thanks, and I'd be incredibly interested in your take after watching the video. Here it is if you've got 22 minutes. If you do watch it, take note as to how many passes he touches that you consider to be catchable, particularly given the narrative that he's hands in traffic, aka "contested catches." I was simply hoping that we'd draft a WR capable of flying, if for no other reason than to give us a dimension to our passing game that it now appears we do not have. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOA_jjDOCr4&t=11s I also read this piece which counters the narrative and is well supported and supports the points that I've made. In fact it was one of my sources of info. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect Well no, but he did have QBs the last couple of seasons that weren't bad at the high-percentage stuff that he's suited to. He had more targets this and last season than everyone on our team except for Diggs in '23 and Diggs and Davis in '22. Remember, the areas where Samuel runs routes are not Allen's strong suit. Allen's pretty average if even that in that high-percentage short-medium game. That means a lot of QBs are better than he is there. Again, would love to get your opinion on that Coleman every pass video. Okay, that was depressing. I just finished watching the video and reading the article. First, the numbers. I counted 94 targets for Coleman, with 58 catches. A 62% catch rate. Also four drops, and one fumble after the catch. Coleman's non-catches were usually because of a defender being right there, breaking up the pass. Also Coleman's QB, Travis, threw a decent share of inaccurate passes. If a pass was far from Coleman, I didn't count it against his targets. From the article: "[Coleman] caught only 22.7% of his contested targets in 2023." That was consistent with my subjective impression. There were times when Coleman made impressive contested catches. But far more often, when a defender was right there with Coleman, that defender was able to use his athleticism to break up the pass. After watching a player, you get a subjective feel for him. This is purely my opinion, but my feel for Coleman was that there was nothing special there. Let's say you're using a scale from 1 - 10. If a guy is special as a college player, you label him a 9 or a 10. If he's a JAG, maybe you label him a 3. On a scale like that, I'd put Coleman at about a 5. A step up from a JAG, to where you'd say he was better than average for a college WR. But just watching him, it's not as though I ever thought, this guy's star shines so brightly, he's clearly got a great career waiting for him at the next level. By no means am I writing Coleman off. If he improves, particularly with his route running, he could be a solid player for the Bills. That being said . . . if we had to do that draft over again, and if I was the one making the call, I'd take Ladd McConkey. Quote Well yeah, but also where they were playing him. I just watched the KC playoff game and there were times when he was lined up in the backfield and even ran a sweep. I mean really? Most of the time he appeared to be a decoy, but I only saw a few deep routes. 3 catches on 8 targets, for 21 yards, means someone messed up. That's 2.6 yards per pass attempt: a truly abysmal result. If you see a number like that, sometimes the culprit is the QB, for throwing inaccurate passes. Other times it's the WR, for not catching passes he should have caught. But I don't know how the culprit could be the offensive coordinator. If Diggs is lined up in the backfield or running sweeps, that shouldn't push his catch percentage below 50%, right? You reach a point where the QB throws the ball, and the WR catches it. Or doesn't catch it, in the particular case of Diggs. Quote
Billy Claude Posted May 13 Posted May 13 (edited) 19 hours ago, PBF81 said: That's a good topic for discussion. Is it a fair way to make the comparison? (BTW, I get 25.0 PPG, not 26.6. Did you remove the STs and D TDs in the NE & Miami games?) I did not remove the special team and defensive touchdowns. 19 hours ago, PBF81 said: If it is a fair way to make the comparison, then here's what I noticed about that. You broke it down by the first 4 games and the last 6 games. But our first game, season opener, on the road, was far more like one of Brady's late season games than much else. I'd say games 2-4, then games 5-10, then games 11-14, and if we're going to apply the same standard, per your "unsustainable bump" comment above, and in fairness to the trend/pattern under Dorsey that began after four games, games 15-17. That's to start, but let's create an order for discussion here. My feeling is with such a limited data set, removing too much would make it hard to draw any relevant conclusions. Also, I feel that the offense was actually doing fairly well in the Jets game until all the interceptions happen. In any case, if you pick and choose what to remove, you can come to any conclusion one wants. The only reason why I split Dorsey's games into 4/6 is because I felt that those 6 games were what people are comparing to when they say Brady was much better than Dorsey. 19 hours ago, PBF81 said: We as a team have a history of "unsustainable bumps" in our season-long performances. We're typically very strong at the home-opener, and in the case of some games, typically at home, that are huge games. The Dallas game fell into that category last season. After our defensive collapse vs. the Eagles in allowing them their 2nd best offensive game on the season, a pall was cast over all things Bills. But then next week, if for no other motivation, we beat our nemesis the Chiefs, which offered a renewed albeit slim hope for making the playoffs much less winning the division. So we got up bigly (LOL) for the Dallas game and dusted them. But then things kinda fell apart from a performance perspective despite the fact that we won the next three games, entirely unimpressively it can be added. Take the Chargers game. We barely beat the Chargers and managed only 24 offensive points, while allowing 22 points to them. First, this was a team fielding Easton Stick at QB, and to make matters less impressive, Ekeler at RB, and with two rookies, Derius Davis and Quentin Johnston at WR, perrenial 3/4 WR Palmer, journeyman Alex Erickson, and roster-bubble WR Jalen Guyton as their WR corp and with no TE of any significant consequence. That's an offensive skill position roster that makes our WR cadre look like an All-Pro team. So was the defense holding that unit to 22 points and 273 yards, with Easton going a very efficient 23 of 33 for 215 passing yards, and another 25 rushing yards and a TD there, impressive? Consider as well, that we allowed more points to that Herbert-less Chargers team than any of the other four teams that played them. Additionally, five other teams held them to fewer points, a lot fewer in most cases, against the team when it had Herbert and Keenan Allen. 20, 17, 17, 10, and 6 there. So was that defensive performance really impressive? ... or something to be regarded as something other than underachieving for a 4th ranked D? I agree. The offense was still up and down even with Brady as OC. I was expecting the Bills to roll over the Chargers and Patriots in must win games and that obviously didn't happen. The defense was also inconsistent, they should have ate up the Chargers and Patriots backups QBs. 19 hours ago, PBF81 said: I won't go into the same detail, which also has mitigating circumstances per the above, like Zappe playing QB for NE, or the fact that the TD pass to Sherfield in the Miami game involved a lot of luck for that batted pass to end up where it did with Sherfield making a phenominal play after doing absolutely nothing significant all season. But let's break it down by those last three games however using the same metrics that you used above. Brady Last Three Games: 363 YPG 32:46 ToP 19.3 PPG What sticks out there? Similar YPG. Marginally but relatively insignificant reduction in ToP. But what, a near TD/game drop in production. So here's how I look at that and see more cause for concern than I do for hope. With an average advantage in those three games of 82 YPG, 5:32 in ToP, 3.7 more 1st Downs, not to mention Allen v. Schtick & Zappe in two of those games, yet only a .3 PPG advantage? That's attributable to the offense. In short, ball movement was similar, but our ability to put points on the board diminished significantly, very significantly in fact. 19.3 PPG would have been good for 26th in the league that's how poor it was. And, at a time when every game was needed to simply make the playoffs. Moreover, it's not as if any of those defenses were any good. The Chargers ranked 24th, NE 15th, and Miami 22nd. So getting back to the question, is how you presented it a fair way to make a comparison? Is it comprehensive? Obviously not. I attribute it to the second bolded part, an unsustainable bump for a new coach, and, the meddling of a defensive-minded head coach who seemed to believe that the rushing from Cook in the Dallas game was sustainable over the long haul when there's absolutely nothing historically in his dossier that even remotely suggests that could even reasonably be the case. Right? In fact, they talked about Allen running too much, then increased Allen's rushing load under Brady, going from 4.8 carries/game and 24.6 rushing yards, nearly doubling to 9.0 carries and 39.7 rushing yards. Is that really where this team with Allen needs to go as he ages? I agree. A lot of the improvement in the offense came about because Allen was running so much more under Brady than Dorsey. I don't know if want to have Allen running so much except in must win games. One thing I liked about Brady is that he did seem to be more willing to adjust game to game than Dorsey was. Another cause for confidence is that the offense was very effective in the playoffs against the Chiefs. The Miami game, the Bills dominated. I have no criticism of how they played against the Dolphins. Sometimes you are just unlucky. Crap happens. 19 hours ago, PBF81 said: Cook under Brady, apart from that single outlier Dallas game, saw his YPC avg. plummet to 3.6 YPC with not a TD to be found. Is that sustainable? One might say that's why we drafted Davis. Well, OK, but that also involves an entirely different offensive mindset than pitched by McD a year ago and after ditching Moss, who once again, had a notably more prolific career both rushing and receiving than Davis did in college. Moss' draft profiles are greater than Davis' as well. So we'll see there, but honestly, why the hope there? True, which is why I prefer as much info as possible. I would say that the offense looked fantastic in games 2-4 and in games 11, 12, and 14 under Brady and similar to Dorsey's fast start, as both seemed to settle into, not even mediocrity, but well below-average production otherwise and considering that we have Allen. In our 11 other games we averaged 20.5 PPG, which on a season would be good for 20th on the season. So while it's nice that we can dust poor teams like the Raiders, the Skins with their league worst D, a hapless Jets team by the time we played them, a very overrated Eagles team, and even Dallas who came off of an emotionally draining huge Sunday night game the week before, and of course Miami, who all but literally cannot beat us since we've had Allen, it's the steady-stated that matters. As to the two playoff games, our staff being out of answers on how to maximize our offensive roster, once again just stepped out of the way allowing Allen to do everything including running the ball, which they wisely said they wanted to get away from a year earlier thereby confusing matters even more, to the tune of over 40% of the rushing plays and all three rushing TDs. That unsustainable seems to apply here as well. Lastly, as to your statement where the offense looked unstoppable at the beginning of the season and then very out of joint at the end of the season. Why do you think that is? Do the other teams that win their divisional round games suffer from the same, year in and year out? Thoughts? Almost every team goes through lulls. The Bills seem to last longer but maybe it only feels that way because we are more personally invested. In any case, I agree that we don't know how Brady is going to do this coming season. I am pretty neutral. When Daboll left, most people expressed a lot of confidence in Dorsey and many thought he was going to be an upgrade. 19 hours ago, PBF81 said: Neither do you. What we do know is what they say is not what they do. Acquire Hines as a prolific pass catcher out of the backfield, then don't even remotely use him in that capacity. All's well with Diggs when they've known or a while that it isn't. Need a faster offense with a Cook type RB. Now we're going in the complete opposite direction. There is some disconnect between Beane and the OC (or perhaps its Allen) about pass catching running backs. Beane has been signing pass catching RBs since he got here, from TJ Yeldon onwards. However, the Bills offense has steadfastly refused to use them. 19 hours ago, PBF81 said: Draft Davis, someone with a worse draft profile (nfl.com and pff et al.) than Moss, with Moss having been more prolific at everything with similar build and style. There's more, but to start. Otherwise, what is their plan? Is it evident? Otherwise feel free to quit stalking me. Come on now, McD openly stated in a press conference that he has zero answers as to solutions for our offense midseason last year. Definitely not happy that the success of the Bills offense might need to have four receivers (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir and Coleman) exceeding their production in any previous season. In Coleman's case, this might mean exceeding his college production. There was a few posts from last off-season saying that the Bills receiving corp would be the best ever because Sherfleld, and Hardy were going to have career years since they would be working with Allen and Dorsey would have more experience. Seems deja vu. Edited May 13 by Billy Claude 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted May 13 Posted May 13 6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said: Okay, that was depressing. I just finished watching the video and reading the article. First, the numbers. I counted 94 targets for Coleman, with 58 catches. A 62% catch rate. Also four drops, and one fumble after the catch. Coleman's non-catches were usually because of a defender being right there, breaking up the pass. Also Coleman's QB, Travis, threw a decent share of inaccurate passes. If a pass was far from Coleman, I didn't count it against his targets. From the article: "[Coleman] caught only 22.7% of his contested targets in 2023." That was consistent with my subjective impression. There were times when Coleman made impressive contested catches. But far more often, when a defender was right there with Coleman, that defender was able to use his athleticism to break up the pass. I counted 52 catches on 92 targets. I watched every one at least twice and annotated the particulars of the play. Where he was when he caught the ball or when it was thrown to him, how many yards the play (and YAC by formula) he got, etc. The officials on him are 50 catches, so I'll have to go back game by game to see where I was off. But the point was not to depress you. LOL The point is to try to close the gap between reality and fantasy, the latter of which is quite often if not typically disguised as a narrative. But your observations line up with mine. But the narrative is what, it's that he's tough in traffic, can catch contested balls, great hands, etc. I didn't see that and from your post it doesn't sound as if you did either. That article I read almost immediately after the Draft, and while it's someone else's research, sites like PFF typically do at least a halfway decent job on theirs. I originally watched the video and thought to myself, 'wow, that's a lot of bubble screens and other screens and gadget plays that don't typically line up with a draft pick at the round 1/2 break. (aka late round 1, first in round 2) So I decided to catalog every play. Upon doing so it added, not detracted, to my concerns. As you say, there were a few times where Coleman made "Wow!" plays, I count three of those, and several others where he made a good, albeit not particularly unusual catch in coverage. (aka traffic) But I saw absolutely nothing on the plus side of average there, to the contrary in fact. 6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said: After watching a player, you get a subjective feel for him. This is purely my opinion, but my feel for Coleman was that there was nothing special there. Let's say you're using a scale from 1 - 10. If a guy is special as a college player, you label him a 9 or a 10. If he's a JAG, maybe you label him a 3. On a scale like that, I'd put Coleman at about a 5. A step up from a JAG, to where you'd say he was better than average for a college WR. But just watching him, it's not as though I ever thought, this guy's star shines so brightly, he's clearly got a great career waiting for him at the next level. By no means am I writing Coleman off. If he improves, particularly with his route running, he could be a solid player for the Bills. That being said . . . if we had to do that draft over again, and if I was the one making the call, I'd take Ladd McConkey. As you realize, I agree with you on that assessment in your first para. I suppose that he could be the next Andre Johnson in fact, but I suspect that he'll be closer to the late James Hardy whom we drafted at 41st in '08. We will see. No amount of discussion here will alter that outcome. But where I'm largely thrown is that if your a team interested in him, particularly in reaching for him before almost all of the draft profiles on him had him going later than that, then wouldn't you have watched, at mimimum, the content in that video? Yet, we're expected to believe that they did and that he was their guy. Well OK, but consider, about half of those 50 plays on which he caught balls, simply don't work well in the NFL for a player of his stature. Of the otehr half his completion percentage is so low that it begs criticism. And of the single biggest asset they claimed about him upon drafting him, was his ability to catch contested balls. But as you essentially corroborated, he was problematic in tight coverage, aka "contested passes," that from the "eye test" from watching every pass reception of his. PFF does a fantastic job of putting the math behind it in contrast with the other drafted WRs. And while I may have not traded down with Carolina and gone with Legette, both Legette and McConkey add a dimension to our offense that presently is not there. What does Coleman add? Nothing that we do not already have. 6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said: 3 catches on 8 targets, for 21 yards, means someone messed up. That's 2.6 yards per pass attempt: a truly abysmal result. If you see a number like that, sometimes the culprit is the QB, for throwing inaccurate passes. Other times it's the WR, for not catching passes he should have caught. But I don't know how the culprit could be the offensive coordinator. If Diggs is lined up in the backfield or running sweeps, that shouldn't push his catch percentage below 50%, right? You reach a point where the QB throws the ball, and the WR catches it. Or doesn't catch it, in the particular case of Diggs. It's a lot of things, but all targets are not catchable balls. But the point was look at where they were playing Diggs. It's far from where he's been playing throughout his career, under Brady that is. The question is why? OK, so let's suppose that it's true, the narrative that is, that he's lost a step, what, that means that he plays in the backfield or close to it most of the time? Wouldn't he be relying on his "step" for YAC in those situations. It's a rhetorical question, but the whole thing stinks, and given how the team has lied to us repeatedly, it raises more questions than it answers. 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted May 13 Posted May 13 13 minutes ago, Billy Claude said: I did not remove the special team and defensive touchdowns. My feeling is with such a limited data set, removing too much would make it hard to draw any relevant conclusions. Also, I feel that the offense was actually doing fairly well in the Jets game until all the interceptions happen. In any case, if you pick and choose what to remove, you can come to any conclusion one wants. The only reason why I split Dorsey's games into 4/6 is because I felt that those 6 games were what people are comparing to when they say Brady was much better than Dorsey. I agree. The offense was still up and down even with Brady as OC. I was expecting the Bills to roll over the Chargers and Patriots in must win games and that obviously didn't happen. The defense was also inconsistent, they should have ate up the Chargers and Patriots backups QBs. I agree. A lot of the improvement in the offense came about because Allen was running so much more under Brady than Dorsey. One thing I liked about Brady is that he did seem to be more willing to adjust game to game than Dorsey was. The Miami game, the Bills dominated. I have no criticism of how they played against the Dolphins. Sometimes you are just unlucky. Crap happens. Almost every team goes through lulls. The Bills seem to last longer but maybe it only feels that way because we are more personally invested. In any case, I agree that we don't know how Brady is going to do this coming season. I am pretty neutral. When Daboll left, most people expressed a lot of confidence in Dorsey and many thought he was going to be an upgrade. There is some disconnect between Beane and the OC (or perhaps its Allen) about pass catching running backs. Beane has been signing pass catching RBs since he got here, from TJ Yeldon onwards. However, the Bills offense has steadfastly refused to use them. Definitely not happy that the success of the Bills offense might need to have four receivers (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir and Coleman) exceeding their production in any previous season. There was a few posts from last off-season saying that the Bills receiving corp would be the best ever because Sherfleld, and Hardy were going to have career years since they would be working with Allen and Dorsey would have more experience. Thanks, and where I disagree is in that first bolded part, at least somewhat. After our Dallas game, he kept running Cook, 20, then 16, then 13 times/game, when Cook's average was beyond pedestrian, it was pathetic. It's nothing surprising that Cook's not a season-long 20 carry/game type, but we kept running him despite the lack of production. The team took a lot of heat for it right here even. Same in the playoffs where his production was low-end from a ypc perspective. But now we're crossing over into the decision to "become faster" while ditching Sing/Moss and make Cook the focus, without any inkling as to whether or not he would be up for the rigors of a full season like that. Obviously he wasn't. So now apparently they're abandoning that track and going to more of a power-running game then? Which gets us to your second bolded part. Yes, there is obviously a disconnect between our drafts and the use of our drafted players, at least somewhat and on offense in particular. There are also some disconnects in how to properly utilize Allen, which is obvious as this point. But the one thing that isn't right is simply throwing everything on Allen's shoulders come playoff time because we have no one capable of orchestrating optimal utilization of the players that we do have on offense. Quote
Rampant Buffalo Posted May 13 Posted May 13 5 hours ago, PBF81 said: I counted 52 catches on 92 targets. I watched every one at least twice and annotated the particulars of the play. Where he was when he caught the ball or when it was thrown to him, how many yards the play (and YAC by formula) he got, etc. The officials on him are 50 catches, so I'll have to go back game by game to see where I was off. I only watched it once, and it sounds like my numbers were a little bit off. Like you, I noticed a lot of completions on short passes. Passes which would be very easy for a normal person to catch. I noticed those passes more later in the video than I did early on. Sometimes, if an OC is having trouble generating production for a particular WR through the normal method, he can resort to stuff like that as a way of getting the ball in the WR's hands. I'm not saying that's what happened here, but it is a possibility. The primary effect of me watching that video was to significantly lower my expectations of Coleman. Is that a good thing? If Coleman goes on to become a quality starter for the Bills, we'll all be happy. Sometimes, the check in the mailbox that you weren't expecting makes you happier than the check you knew was coming. If on the other hand Coleman is destined to be the next James Hardy, perhaps it's best to get my disappointment out of the way now instead of later. The counterargument to that is: life is short. If, for a time, you can make it just a bit more pleasant with high hopes for Coleman, why take that away? I don't know if Coleman will be good or bad, and I don't know if it makes sense to have high expectations of him or low. All I know is I was unimpressed with what I saw in the video. 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted May 14 Posted May 14 7 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said: I only watched it once, and it sounds like my numbers were a little bit off. Like you, I noticed a lot of completions on short passes. Passes which would be very easy for a normal person to catch. I noticed those passes more later in the video than I did early on. Sometimes, if an OC is having trouble generating production for a particular WR through the normal method, he can resort to stuff like that as a way of getting the ball in the WR's hands. I'm not saying that's what happened here, but it is a possibility. The primary effect of me watching that video was to significantly lower my expectations of Coleman. Is that a good thing? If Coleman goes on to become a quality starter for the Bills, we'll all be happy. Sometimes, the check in the mailbox that you weren't expecting makes you happier than the check you knew was coming. If on the other hand Coleman is destined to be the next James Hardy, perhaps it's best to get my disappointment out of the way now instead of later. The counterargument to that is: life is short. If, for a time, you can make it just a bit more pleasant with high hopes for Coleman, why take that away? I don't know if Coleman will be good or bad, and I don't know if it makes sense to have high expectations of him or low. All I know is I was unimpressed with what I saw in the video. I guess I don't take "reality" as hard as some do. Your statements were insightful in that way. For me the analysis is just as much fun. Consider however, you said that life is short, but Allen's career is even shorter. Quote
Rampant Buffalo Posted May 14 Posted May 14 3 hours ago, PBF81 said: I guess I don't take "reality" as hard as some do. Your statements were insightful in that way. For me the analysis is just as much fun. Consider however, you said that life is short, but Allen's career is even shorter. If someone is overly negative in their take of the team, there can be pushback. Sometimes that pushback involves strong feelings or personal attacks. Why is this? My personal theory is that the following is true. 1) A lot of people here have a strong emotional investment in this team. No newsflash there. 2) There is a logical fallacy which it's surprisingly easy to fall into. That fallacy is as follows. If the vast majority of people here agree on something, it's likely to be true. If someone came into this board believing something, and learned that just about everyone here believed the opposite, it's likely that person would change his or her belief. More simply: what people on this board think = reality, or at least that's how things can sometimes seem. So when you have a person posting a pessimistic perspective, sometimes it can feel as though this person is actually creating a negative reality. It's irrational when you put it into words like that, but on a gut level that's how a lot of people are going to feel. If someone starts feeling emotional about something posted about the team, I would suggest remembering the following examples. The first is Mike Williams, an OT the Bills drafted fourth overall. The vast majority of people here were excited about the pick. Williams turned out to be a bust. The other example is also a lineman named Williams. Kyle Williams, DT. When the Bills drafted him in the 5th round, few here were excited about him. He went on to become the best draft pick of the playoff drought, and his career was almost good enough to deserve Hall of Fame induction. The consensus of this board didn't create a positive reality for Mike Williams. Nor did it create a negative reality for Kyle Williams. Quote
Billy Claude Posted May 14 Posted May 14 (edited) 20 hours ago, PBF81 said: Thanks, and where I disagree is in that first bolded part, at least somewhat. After our Dallas game, he kept running Cook, 20, then 16, then 13 times/game, when Cook's average was beyond pedestrian, it was pathetic. It's nothing surprising that Cook's not a season-long 20 carry/game type, but we kept running him despite the lack of production. The team took a lot of heat for it right here even. Same in the playoffs where his production was low-end from a ypc perspective. Thanks for the very thoughtful discussion. I see your point on Cook but 13 rush attempts is not much but he did seem to run the same play a lot. In contrast, Allen's pass attempt numbers serve as evidence that Brady did adapt game to game though of course game situation matters: NYJ 32, PHI 51, KC 42, DAL 15, SD 21, NE 30, MIA 38, PIT 30, KC 39 He clearly adapted the game plan for the Dallas defense and then tried the same thing against the Chargers but it didn't work. Defintiely not sold on Brady yet but at least he finished strong with a coherent game plan against the Chiefs. Edited May 14 by Billy Claude 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted May 14 Posted May 14 6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said: If the vast majority of people here agree on something, it's likely to be true. I couldn't possibly disagree more with that. 🙂 But yes, your very much into onto something re: the emotions vs. reality angle. 3 hours ago, Billy Claude said: Thanks for the very thoughtful discussion. I see your point on Cook but 13 rush attempts is not much but he did seem to run the same play a lot. In contrast, Allen's pass attempt numbers serve as evidence that Brady did adapt game to game though of course game situation matters: NYJ 32, PHI 51, KC 42, DAL 15, SD 21, NE 30, MIA 38, PIT 30, KC 39 He clearly adapted the game plan for the Dallas defense and then tried the same thing against the Chargers but it didn't work. Defintiely not sold on Brady yet but at least he finished strong with a coherent game plan against the Chiefs. We do tend to get up for big games. Consider however that we lost to some real crap teams and played several others nearly losing. Quote
Rampant Buffalo Posted May 14 Posted May 14 5 hours ago, PBF81 said: I couldn't possibly disagree more with that. 🙂 In fairness . . . I was in the middle of describing a logical fallacy when I made that statement. 🙂 1 Quote
MasterStrategist Posted May 14 Posted May 14 On 5/12/2024 at 12:33 PM, PBF81 said: If you're not going to read my posts that explain all that, then there's zero sense in us communicating in this manner. I'm getting tired of shagging your foul balls. So for that reason I'll simply give you a thumbs up in the future and ignore you. I understand if you don't want to read the longer posts of mine, which is fine, but then don't comment asking questions, "challenging assumptions," or otherwise responding when what you ask for is provided in them. Granted, they're not for everybody. I spend a LOT of time researching and cataloging data and info. To ignore it is insulting. Your data is biased and a judgment in many occasions. I've brought this up when you were talking about Keons "drops" in another thread. You don't consider his QB was wildly inaccurate at times and often very slow to anticipate throws (waited far too long and the defender got there to break it up). Those were drops in your book. Again, like another poster mentioned, you spend time finding stats that support your "opinion", and at various times spin those to confirm your point. That's called confirmation bias, for any statistical nerds on here. I'm a big stat guy, majored in advanced statistics/actuarial science, also have coaching background and know what I'm looking at. Not to say you're incapable. But you seem incapable of looking at things from a "fair" standpoint/zero bias. You make your opinion and find stats to prove why you're right. Back to actual football talk, here's cliff notes for you: 1. Brady (or Brady vs Dorsey): no install LY, full offseason to put his scheme in play = no judgment to make yet (although he did call solid games against Cowboys, Philly, KC to name a few). Can't compare to anyone else until he installs his system 2. Coleman: no pro experience. His college "drops"/tape aren't near as bad as you've portrayed them. I'm not listing stats, because this will turn into a debate on what you "define as catchable", which I strongly disagree with you on. 3. McD/Beane plan at WR and skill positions: plan is clear as day to me. Find more reliable/higher catch rate options. Better with YAC. More versatile slot/outside. Better in intermediate passing game. Bigger targets/improved 50-50 pass options. Improve our backup RB position- if you watch Davis "all touches" film, he is a better prospect than Moss IMO. Quicker feet, great vision/agility. Pass game he is very similar to Moss, again more elusive IMO. 4. Others I could discuss, if you want You come across as pessimistic on some key offseason decisions from the front office/lacking confidence in McD and Beane in general. Again, just letting your feelings get in the way (past <> future/2024 results). 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted May 15 Posted May 15 7 hours ago, MasterStrategist said: Your data is biased and a judgment in many occasions. I've brought this up when you were talking about Keons "drops" in another thread. You don't consider his QB was wildly inaccurate at times and often very slow to anticipate throws (waited far too long and the defender got there to break it up). Those were drops in your book. Again, like another poster mentioned, you spend time finding stats that support your "opinion", and at various times spin those to confirm your point. That's called confirmation bias, for any statistical nerds on here. I'm a big stat guy, majored in advanced statistics/actuarial science, also have coaching background and know what I'm looking at. Not to say you're incapable. But you seem incapable of looking at things from a "fair" standpoint/zero bias. You make your opinion and find stats to prove why you're right. Back to actual football talk, here's cliff notes for you: 1. Brady (or Brady vs Dorsey): no install LY, full offseason to put his scheme in play = no judgment to make yet (although he did call solid games against Cowboys, Philly, KC to name a few). Can't compare to anyone else until he installs his system 2. Coleman: no pro experience. His college "drops"/tape aren't near as bad as you've portrayed them. I'm not listing stats, because this will turn into a debate on what you "define as catchable", which I strongly disagree with you on. 3. McD/Beane plan at WR and skill positions: plan is clear as day to me. Find more reliable/higher catch rate options. Better with YAC. More versatile slot/outside. Better in intermediate passing game. Bigger targets/improved 50-50 pass options. Improve our backup RB position- if you watch Davis "all touches" film, he is a better prospect than Moss IMO. Quicker feet, great vision/agility. Pass game he is very similar to Moss, again more elusive IMO. 4. Others I could discuss, if you want You come across as pessimistic on some key offseason decisions from the front office/lacking confidence in McD and Beane in general. Again, just letting your feelings get in the way (past <> future/2024 results). This might have some meaning if you didn't disagree with so much of what's in my posts, often simply facts. Quote
MasterStrategist Posted May 15 Posted May 15 6 minutes ago, PBF81 said: This might have some meaning if you didn't disagree with so much of what's in my posts, often simply facts. You call dropped passes simple facts? Again you use stats, but adjust to fit your agenda. Not always, but on some key topics. It's hard to take you seriously when you write 8 paragraphs, some of it is real good data/analysis, but one third to half is biased. Then you use that to prove overall points about what direction this team is going. So yeah, in the end, you're using biased data to form your overall conclusion. Quote
Milanos Milano Posted May 15 Posted May 15 On 5/9/2024 at 10:26 AM, Coach Tuesday said: I thought Davis was the best back in the draft. If he stays healthy and focused he can be a Travis Henry-type player on the field. He reminds me so much of Darren Sproles. Even runs like him. Quote
Rampant Buffalo Posted May 15 Posted May 15 4 hours ago, MasterStrategist said: It's hard to take you seriously when you write 8 paragraphs, some of it is real good data/analysis, but one third to half is biased. Your post just before the one I'm quoting was 11 paragraphs long. 😉 As far as what you posted, I'd categorize it as, accusations too vague to refute. For example, you've accused PBF81 of being biased, and of allowing that bias to influence his interpretation of stats. Maybe he's guilty of that, maybe he's not. If he is, perhaps you could provide one or two examples in which the data led in one direction, and PBF81's analysis led in a different direction due to bias. Something like that would do more to move the discussion forward, than would taking him down a notch type posts when you're not providing data with which to validate your conclusion. This is a pet peeve of mine, but the word data is always plural. The singular of data is datum. At the end of the day, I suggest you watch the 22 minute video PBF81 posted earlier: the one showing each of Coleman's targets for the 2023 season. At least for me, what my eyes told me as I watched that video was far more convincing than a typical statistical analysis would have been. Why am I not convinced by the usual type of statistical analysis? Coleman's QB threw an above-average share of passes which were inaccurate but still "catchable." That's going to make his WRs look worse, statistically, than would have been the case if they'd had Joe Montana throwing to them. A very good statistical analysis would prevent WRs from looking better or worse than they should, based on the merits or demerits of their QBs. But a more typical statistical analysis would give WRs credit or blame for factors outside their control, such as the quality of QB play. You obviously feel PB81's statistical analyses are lacking, which is all the more reason for you to do your own eyeball test of Coleman's play. Quote
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