Ray Ray Davis pick receiving praise

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I just looked quickly and the Bills were 4th in YPG last year.  Is it possible you’re overreacting?

 

If you're not going to read my posts that explain all that, then there's zero sense in us communicating in this manner.  I'm getting tired of shagging your foul balls.  

 

So for that reason I'll simply give you a thumbs up in the future and ignore you.  

 

I understand if you don't want to read the longer posts of mine, which is fine, but then don't comment asking questions, "challenging assumptions," or otherwise responding when what you ask for is provided in them.  Granted, they're not for everybody.  I spend a LOT of time researching and cataloging data and info.  To ignore it is insulting.  

 

 

Edited May 12 by PBF81

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If you're not going to read my posts that explain all that, then there's zero sense in us communicating in this manner.  I'm getting tired of shagging your foul balls.  

 

So for that reason I'll simply give you a thumbs up in the future and ignore you.  

 

I understand if you don't want to read the longer posts of mine, which is fine, but then don't comment asking questions, "challenging assumptions," or otherwise responding when what you ask for is provided in them.  Granted, they're not for everybody.  I spend a LOT of time researching and cataloging data and info.  To ignore it is insulting.  

 

 

I skim your posts because they seem to provide confirmation bias.

[ColoradoBills]

I'm going to do something crazy and wait at least until training camp to see what Davis can bring and what his draft worth may or may not be.

Crazy! 

[PBF81]

16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I skim your posts because they seem to provide confirmation bias.

 

Thanks for your candor.  

 

That's fine, but then don't ask me to repeat info purely at your personal behest when it's already been provided with much supporting evidence.  Imagine if you wrote a post explaining your position with all sorts of detail and supporting documentation, I only skimmed it, but then commented, "challenged assumptions," and otherwise argued your points which were fully contained and outlined in your post?  How would that sit with you?  ... or if I commented on one of your posts during an interaction between you and someone else, while taking something entirely out of context to "argue" your position?  

 

We all do that once in a while, but you do it as a rule, at least with me.  

 

Otherwise, it's also quite a bit hypocritical to challenge the well annotated and well reasoned out arguments of others, while providing little if any actual info much less factual data yourself to the contrary and to arguments that you stand by.  

 

And again, I've offered several times now to go through game video in detail to illustrate for you, upon your not only challenging but also arguing points, to validate them one way or the other and investigate further, and you've refused every time.  Even just one game to give you a glimpse.  That's also a bit hypocritical.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

47 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks for your candor.  

 

That's fine, but then don't ask me to repeat info purely at your personal behest when it's already been provided with much supporting evidence.  Imagine if you wrote a post explaining your position with all sorts of detail and supporting documentation, I only skimmed it, but then commented, "challenged assumptions," and otherwise argued your points which were fully contained and outlined in your post?  How would that sit with you?  ... or if I commented on one of your posts during an interaction between you and someone else, while taking something entirely out of context to "argue" your position?  

 

We all do that once in a while, but you do it as a rule, at least with me.  

 

Otherwise, it's also quite a bit hypocritical to challenge the well annotated and well reasoned out arguments of others, while providing little if any actual info much less factual data yourself to the contrary and to arguments that you stand by.  

 

And again, I've offered several times now to go through game video in detail to illustrate for you, upon your not only challenging but also arguing points, to validate them one way or the other and investigate further, and you've refused every time.  Even just one game to give you a glimpse.  That's also a bit hypocritical.  

 

 

We clearly just don’t mesh in opinion.  I have a stats background but I don’t spend a ton of time trying to get into the weeds of things because the Bills are entertainment to me.  So I’ll just refrain from comment now.  If you don’t see that a blanket statement suggesting the team has no plan on offense is silly then there’s no sense attempting to converse.

 

Go Bills!

[JerseyBills]

11 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

 

One way I look at the performance of a defense is by the number of stops it generates over the course of a game. (With a stop defined as a punt or a turnover.)

 

Look at what happened during the year of 13 seconds. The Chiefs' first playoff game was against the Steelers. The Steelers defense forced six defensive stops. Their next game was against the Bills. The Bills defense forced two stops: one in the first half, the other in the second. Their third playoff game was against the Bengals. The Bengals defense forced six stops, including a stop in overtime. (The Bills defense was also given a chance to generate a stop in overtime, but we all know how that went.) All this happened when the Chiefs still had Tyreek Hill.

 

Joe Burrow and the Bengals were barely good enough to get the win against the Chiefs, with those six defensive stops. Josh Allen's defense gave him only two stops--one third of what Burrow received. With those two stops, Allen took his team to within 13 seconds of winning.

 

Under McDermott, the Bills defense has never generated more than two defensive stops, in a playoff game against the Chiefs or the Bengals. In the most recent Super Bowl, the 49ers defense forced seven stops against the Chiefs. That's 3.5 times better than McDermott's best.

 

After the McDermott/Frazier soft zone/prevent defense inevitably collapses against the Chiefs in the playoffs, do you know what we hear? We hear a song and dance about how Allen will never win a postseason game against Mahomes. We hear that Mahomes is better, which is why he always wins. Nothing at all is said about the fact that Josh Allen's defense is only 1/3 as effective as the other postseason defenses Mahomes often faces.

 

 

Great points.  

I will say before the barrage of injuries the defense looked Way more aggressive than in everey previous years and should see more aggressiveness with the boys coming back healthy and improvements at S.

 

I mean I see improvements at every position but DE, with Floyd loss but Von looked his best in the playoffs(which isn't saying much) but he could be the X factor of the D.

 

As for S, Rapp got double what Poyer got, Edwards a million more, so the market clearly showed they were more valuable and upgrades, drafted a potential stud, Hyde was a step off late in year. 

 

I mean in the KC game we had no Milano , 2 S that lost a step or 2 and our CB1, CB2 , DT2 (who was having an all pro year before injury), MLB all recently coming back from injury, I'd bet majority weren't 100%. 

 

Injuries will be key!!!

 

I guarantee the other teams mentioned were way healthier playing against the top QB and a topc5 QB. 

If they stay relatively healthy, they'll play the aggressive style we saw early on and the stops should go way up....

 

You also left out our WC victories and the Baltimore W, I'm assuming they had plenty of stops in those. And I mean we're talking about the best QB and a top 5 QB in the game. 

 

[Nephilim17]

12 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

A 4th round pick for a short yardage back though?  

 

 

I never said if that's all Davis is that that is good value. I just said we could still be "fast" with Cook as the primary guy.

Cook is in year three. if it's a 60/40 split (either way) and Davis is the feature back in 3 years, I'm good with that. If he's just a role player, then no, a 4th for just a short yardage back is not good value.

LIsten, I'm not saying it was a great draft. I hope it is. I hope Coleman becomes a number one but if he is a good number 2 that's acceptable. If he's less than a good number 2, it's a failure. I don't think we've done enough for Josh over the years and I hope this team takes a big step forward — beating good teams in the playoffs and challenging for a Super Bowl — and if not I'm in favor of a new regime. I don't want this regime to go another 4 years without challenging seriously for a Super Bowl. For me, one to two more years, tops.

[Rampant Buffalo]

14 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Great points.  

I will say before the barrage of injuries the defense looked Way more aggressive than in everey previous years and should see more aggressiveness with the boys coming back healthy and improvements at S.

 

I mean I see improvements at every position but DE, with Floyd loss but Von looked his best in the playoffs(which isn't saying much) but he could be the X factor of the D.

 

As for S, Rapp got double what Poyer got, Edwards a million more, so the market clearly showed they were more valuable and upgrades, drafted a potential stud, Hyde was a step off late in year. 

 

I mean in the KC game we had no Milano , 2 S that lost a step or 2 and our CB1, CB2 , DT2 (who was having an all pro year before injury), MLB all recently coming back from injury, I'd bet majority weren't 100%. 

 

Injuries will be key!!!

 

I guarantee the other teams mentioned were way healthier playing against the top QB and a topc5 QB. 

If they stay relatively healthy, they'll play the aggressive style we saw early on and the stops should go way up....

 

You also left out our WC victories and the Baltimore W, I'm assuming they had plenty of stops in those. And I mean we're talking about the best QB and a top 5 QB in the game. 

 

 

This past season, the Bills had two defensive coordinators. The really good defensive coordinator was named Sean McDermott. The terrible defensive coordinator was also named Sean McDermott.

 

The really good defensive coordinator called the plays for the first half of the Eagles game. He did a great job, and the Eagles had only scored 3 points going into halftime. But in the third quarter, the terrible defensive coordinator took over. He knew exactly what he needed to do. Soft zone defense. He had the brilliant idea of simply allowing the Eagles to complete 8 - 12 yard passes. Easy throws, easy catches. The defense simply allowed that, passively. After the game, one of the Eagles players said that when he saw how the Bills defenders were lined up, he knew his team would score a touchdown.

 

I was hoping that after Frazier took his year off, the soft zone/prevent defense would die a much needed death. But no. In the first half of the Eagles game, we saw the defensive coordinator that Andy Reid had hoped he was hiring. In the second half, we saw the defensive coordinator Andy Reid fired.

 

In the playoff game against the Ravens, the Bills got the good version of their own defensive coaching staff. In the playoff games against the Chiefs and Bengals, they've generally gotten the terrible version. The terrible version generates two stops per game max. That's one third the effectiveness of defenses of the Steelers, Bengals, or 49ers in their postseason games against the Chiefs. If the Bills defense is only doing one third or less of what others are doing, that isn't much of a chance for the team to win. 

 

[billrooter]

On 5/9/2024 at 4:04 PM, BigAl2526 said:

I think Davis is a solid addition. I'm not sure how the running back room fits together.  Davis is a do everything back, but he's the slowest RB in the running back room, including Darrynton Evans.  I don't see Davis ever taking over as the #1 back as some do.  Though Cook is light, he's shown he can run between the tackles.  My guess is that Cook continues to start and the three top RBs are all going to get their touches.  If one of them gets hot, maybe Brady will let the offense ride him for a while.  The Bills may give Davis a shot at proving what he can do in short yardage situations.  Until proven other wise, Josh Allen is the best short yardage back.  I think the Bills would like to find a reliable alternative.  That wouldn't be Davis' only role, of course, but if he can do it, it would give the Bills something they could really use.

I don't think it matters if he's the slowest running back, he is the best pure runner has great instincts and vision. I think he's going to end up at some point being our every down guy, he's a natural runner I don't know think Cook is.

Edited May 12 by billrooter

[PBF81]

35 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

We clearly just don’t mesh in opinion.  I have a stats background but I don’t spend a ton of time trying to get into the weeds of things because the Bills are entertainment to me.  So I’ll just refrain from comment now.  If you don’t see that a blanket statement suggesting the team has no plan on offense is silly then there’s no sense attempting to converse.

 

Go Bills!

 

LOL, yes, clearly, but for different reasons.  

 

They're entertainment to me as well, but so are stats, so they're of equal entertainment to me.  

 

Otherwise, yes, probably best for neither of us to debate on these topics with each other.   

 

Go Bills!!  

 

 

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I never said if that's all Davis is that that is good value. I just said we could still be "fast" with Cook as the primary guy.

Cook is in year three. if it's a 60/40 split (either way) and Davis is the feature back in 3 years, I'm good with that. If he's just a role player, then no, a 4th for just a short yardage back is not good value.

LIsten, I'm not saying it was a great draft. I hope it is. I hope Coleman becomes a number one but if he is a good number 2 that's acceptable. If he's less than a good number 2, it's a failure. I don't think we've done enough for Josh over the years and I hope this team takes a big step forward — beating good teams in the playoffs and challenging for a Super Bowl — and if not I'm in favor of a new regime. I don't want this regime to go another 4 years without challenging seriously for a Super Bowl. For me, one to two more years, tops.

 

Oh yeah, not arguing anything like that, again, more discussing the team's stated approach over the past couple of seasons and the inconsistencies therein.  

 

Nothing disagreeable there generally speaking.  I simply don't see that if they didn't use Singletary or Moss in that regard, or even properly per their skillsets, why Davis would fit the bill when his strengths coming out in the draft aren't even what theirs were.  

 

nfl.com has Davis penciled in for a backup RB w/ a chance of becoming a starter.  That doesn't really seem to help us given our pattern of underutilizing or mis-utilizing the talents of players on offense as it is.  PFF has him possibly being a starter for a downhill rushing team.  That's not our identity, or hasn't been as of yet.  LOL  If we make that our identity, LOL, then I'm pretty sure that the fans and media will be asking tons of questions.  

 

As to Davis the prospect, one of the first things I've always looked for in trying to determine future value, is to what extent a player's weaknesses can be coached into that player.  Davis' weaknesses don't appear to be of that nature, generally speaking.  

 

But you're right, maybe this draft for us turns out to be the best for any team since 2000.  Who knows.  But the equal if not better odds exist that it'll more mimic our drafts from '18 thru '21.  Who cannot easily envision Coleman doing a combination James Hardy/Watkins, Bishop developing into an above-average starter, Carter becoming a good but not great much less elite DT, and Davis going the way of Sing/Moss.  If that happens, what good would it have done for Allen and the offense.  

 

It would be good for the team to claim an identity however and stick to that.  Why that identity isn't surrounding Allen and therefore doing everything reasonably possible to facilitate that is to the frustration of quite a few people.  Instead, going into this season it's D, rushing, and the associated "complimentary football" all while shifting from, presumably given the evidence, from a speed to a power rushing team.   A lot of people don't think that makes much sense, or for sure not the most sense.  

 

 

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

This is silly.  No clear plan in view?  You have no idea what Brady wants him to do yet.  There’s some context for you.

He knows.  Everything.  If ya don’t know, know ya knowwww

[Rampant Buffalo]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

In our 11 other games we averaged 20.5 PPG, which on a season would be good for 20th on the season. 

 

I think there's plenty of blame to go around for that. I start with Diggs. He played well in September and October, but his play significantly declined as the season progressed. That's something largely outside of Joe Brady's control, which is going to make him look bad through no fault of his own. Also, Brady was using someone else's playbook.

 

That said . . . I think there was an opportunity for Brady to do a better job than what we saw. If your #1 WR is no longer catching the ball, then maybe focus more on the guys who were catching it, such as Kincaid and Shakir. But that wasn't what happened.

 

You look at the Dallas game. The Cowboys defense was selling out against the pass, while daring the Bills to beat them with the run. You run it all day long against a defense like that. Which is what Brady did. Fine. He did the right thing. But then in subsequent games, he went run heavy when there was no particular reason to do so. It's one thing to run the ball all day when your running game is lighting it up, as it did against Dallas. It's another thing to run the ball all day when your running game looks like James Cook up the middle for a 2 yard gain.

 

I'm not writing Brady off, but I'm not sold on him either. With an offseason to prepare, with more reliable pass catchers for our WR corps, and with the chance to create his own playbook, hopefully we see a little more creativity from him this season.

[3rdand12]

On 5/9/2024 at 9:59 AM, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Johnson already provides a nice complement to Cook, and this pick just bolsters our depth. I hope it works out!

I can see Davis becoming the 2nd back up , and change of pace guy.

Between the tackles a bit more perhaps than we would like Cook to run ?
Ty will be the 3rd up. I like TY plenty , btw.

But I am leaning in that Davis is going  to become very good and  quickly. Different back than Cook. So complimentary I guess

Go Bills

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I can see Davis becoming the 2nd back up , and change of pace guy.

Between the tackles a bit more perhaps than we would like Cook to run ?
Ty will be the 3rd up. I like TY plenty , btw.

But I am leaning in that Davis is going  to become very good and  quickly. Different back than Cook. So complimentary I guess

Go Bills

 

I saw one set of highlights I really liked of Davis. They showed the long runs, of course. But what I really liked was they showed him to be effective in the passing game, including a bunch of plays where he was very active and willing in protection. There was a lot to love about Thurman back in the day, but him picking up a blitz was a thing of pure beauty. 

[3rdand12]

14 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

A 4th round pick for a short yardage back though?  

 

 

I think he's more than that. Can also catch and block i heard somewhere

9 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Who can also catch.  Who can also pass protect.  And so on.

beat me to it.

Perhaps I should read ahead properly before i write lol

But yes , I agree

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I think he's more than that. Can also catch and block i heard somewhere

 

He may be small, but he’s slow!   😋

 

I like him from what little I’ve seen. He’s not going to run away from anyone in the NFL like those long college runs, but I think he can be effective. I can’t wait to see!!!  

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

I'm going to do something crazy and wait at least until training camp to see what Davis can bring and what his draft worth may or may not be.

Crazy! 

Are any of your Family aware of your condition ?

 Sensible is certainly reason for concern these days.

As always. Depends on how they use him. Bills seem to struggle getting the best work out of their backs. Dorsey ?
 I expect Brady will have had enough time to design his future state of His Offense , knowing what types and skill sets his players might best be implemented from game to game.

 

But yea.

Crazy !

13 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

He may be small, but he’s slow!   😋

 

I like him from what little I’ve seen. He’s not going to run away from anyone in the NFL like those long college runs, but I think he can be effective. I can’t wait to see!!!  

This is a draft pick I really am looking forward watch develop too 👍

[PBF81]

19 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

I think there's plenty of blame to go around for that. I start with Diggs. He played well in September and October, but his play significantly declined as the season progressed. That's something largely outside of Joe Brady's control, which is going to make him look bad through no fault of his own. Also, Brady was using someone else's playbook.

 

That said . . . I think there was an opportunity for Brady to do a better job than what we saw. If your #1 WR is no longer catching the ball, then maybe focus more on the guys who were catching it, such as Kincaid and Shakir. But that wasn't what happened.

 

I hear ya.  As you likely know, I'm of the mindset that Diggs was more a product of Brady's use of him than of anything else.  We're expected to believe that from the Cincy game on 11/5 to the Jets game on 11/19, a mere two weeks, that Diggs "lost a step" to the extent that his production was halved.  My sensibilities don't allow for such drastically unprecedented drop in performance barring some major injury.  

 

Also, as I've pointed out to others, it's Brady's use of Diggs.  A great example is the nfl.com highlight reel for the week 18 @ Fins game.  In that game Diggs had his man beaten twice, once badly with Allen overthrowing him in a big way on a deep fly.  That would have been a TD and his stats would have reflected that.  There was another deep throw that he caught, but it was underthrown, and had Allen not underthrown it, it would have been a TD too.  

 

On a bunch of other plays you can see Diggs running shorter routes near, or even behind, the LoS, while numerous other WRs run the deeper stuff.  So it's not like he even has a chance on those plays.  

 

But the point is that if he truly lost a step, then it should have been and would have been most evident as more time passes, namely the last game of the season.  But it was obviously not the case in that game.  So that kind of stuff is suspect as well.  

 

 

19 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

You look at the Dallas game. The Cowboys defense was selling out against the pass, while daring the Bills to beat them with the run. You run it all day long against a defense like that. Which is what Brady did. Fine. He did the right thing. But then in subsequent games, he went run heavy when there was no particular reason to do so. It's one thing to run the ball all day when your running game is lighting it up, as it did against Dallas. It's another thing to run the ball all day when your running game looks like James Cook up the middle for a 2 yard gain.

 

There's complete agreement there, but consider, the fact that we're even talking about it like that is troubling.  What, professional football coaches can't figure that out?  It's common sense.  Hell, even the announcers reference it sometimes.  Ergo, questions need to start being asked.  Was that Brady's inability to see through that, or was he being forced/coerced into that?  Those on the critical side of the fence have our suspicions, those on the other can't possibly fathom the notion.  There's some other reason, right.  

 

 

19 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

I'm not writing Brady off, but I'm not sold on him either. With an offseason to prepare, with more reliable pass catchers for our WR corps, and with the chance to create his own playbook, hopefully we see a little more creativity from him this season.

 

Well, to start, it doesn't really matter what we think anyway, we simply discuss.   

 

I'm not entirely writing Brady off either, but at the same time my sensibilities, rooted in reality, cannot allow me to insist that things improved with him over Dorsey, for the reasons stated in our exchange prior to this.  The numbers don't lie, try as some may to get them to.  LOL  It's also pretty evident that McDefense has his MO, but it's hardly building around Allen, which then necessarily questions an OC that is under McD's thumb.  

 

As a result, and given that Brady was a familiarity hire and at best is an OJT OC, it doesn't bode well for him, particularly now with Diggs and Davis gone.  And BTW, it was Davis that caught a 57-yard TD in the Chargers game w/o which we would have lost.  

 

What you said about him being creative is going to be the key to the offense this season.  We don't have A+ talent at the skill positions.  He'll have to find a way to have the sum-of-the-parts end up being more than the whole.  I'd be surprised if he with his limited experience can do that.  Pleasantly, nonetheless.  

 

I would also question whether we actually have more reliable pass catchers.  Coleman's the big add there and I'm simply not seeing it in his "every pass" video that I'm in the process of editing down for both the good and the bad.  I don't think that any honest person watching that video would disagree.  Same for Samuel whose career Catch% is 65.4%, which is well below average, particularly for a WR whose career YPR is 10.7 and very much in the target area for the high-percentage shorter passing game.  His Success% is also below average, and so is Coleman's last season at FSU.  There's far too much hype over him as well.  But the contrary narrative has formed, so now we're in the 8th time's the charm mode with him.  As an analyst I have no choice but to go with the odds there.  I also can't get too excited over Hollins, a WR that's averaged slightly over 1 catch/game and 17.8 receiving yards/game with 10 total TDs in a 7 year career.  Not to mention that he's on his fourth team in as many years.  Harty's profile in terms of production was similar although they're two different type of WRs, we saw how big of a factor he was.  

 

Anyway, we'll have to disagree on reliability.  Who knows if we've lost much, but objectively there's not much there to suggest greater reliability.  

 

I know it's easy to get all whooped up this time of year, during Camp and in preseason, but realities are realities.  In order for all of this improvement to play out, McD has to back off of breathing down Brady's neck;  if that were to happen, we'd need Brady, a first time OC, to figure out how to be creative enough to overcome the better coached defensive teams in the league;  we'd need Samuel to make a pretty sizeable leap in production and reliability, one that heretofore in seven seasons to date;  and Coleman will have to do what he didn't do at FSU and in circumstances other than what he was primarily involved in while there.  

 

Believing that all of that will come together for the positive is a pretty substantial and blind leap of faith.  

 

 

27 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I think he's more than that. Can also catch and block i heard somewhere

beat me to it.

 

Yes, I realize that.  But the context was in his primary use as a short-yardage back in terms of another suggesting his optimal use.  

 

Moss was the same, with superior collegiate accolades in both, and we see how much and how they used him.  Will it be a repeat?  

 

If it is, why would anyone assume that a similar RB with a lesser draft profile, and quite frankly with largely uncoachable weaknesses, would excel in such a role?  

 

 

[kkim0904]

I saw few Kentucky games on TV this year because they had good season and high profile games.  Ray was beast and he is all Kentucky got.