Ray Ray Davis pick receiving praise

[PBF81]

17 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'm not necessarily prognosticating just saying IF Davis supplants Cook as the main back, I have no qualms with it. 

I see where you're coming from with the seeming lack of a plan and the seeming trial and erros. If Cook remains the number one and Davis is most the third and shorts and goaline back we could still have a "fast" offense. But who knows. I don't think McD is an offensive guru so let's see what Brady does. 

 

A 4th round pick for a short yardage back though?  

 

 

[Rampant Buffalo]

12 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks for the civil discourse!!  

 

Interesting quote although it's obviously not surprising.  

 

I couldn't agree more on your first statement, in fact, you may have seen me post about how if he did that efficiently, then we'd be a record-breaking offense, and I mean not merely Bills, but NFL.  I thought that we were headed there after our first few games last season.  

 

I do not agree on the better at it under Brady.  From what I've seen and studied, which is relatively extensive, the entire reason why his metrics/stats got worse under Brady was entirely because he was put into that situation, which again, is not his forte.  I believe he could get much better at it but I do not believe that he has the proper offensive coaching staff in place to get that out of him, particularly as it's guided by a defensive mindset.  

 

For example, here are his pre & post Brady metrics: 

 

Pre-Brady (Dorsey)

260 passing yards/game

70.3% compl. %

1.9 TDs/game

1.1 INTs/game 

1.3 Sacks/game 

96.6 Rating 

7.4 YPA 

Hurried on 8.6% of attempts 

Hit on 8.0% of attempts 

1st-Down% 33.7% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs)  

Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 8.4 Yards out

______________________________

 

Under Brady

244 passing yards/game 

60.7% compl. %

1.4 TDs/game

1.0 INTs/game 

1.6 Sacks/game 

85.5 Rating 

7.5 YPA 

Hurried on 9.2% of attempts 

Hit on 10.0% of attempts 

1st-Down% 32.8% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs)  

Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 9.1 Yards out 

 

So if we analyze that data against the narrative that he improved under Brady, and that the passing game turned shorter, but that's obviously not the case.  The depth of target alone tells us clearly that that's false.  Also, if his game was truly shorter under Brady, it would be much closer to that high-percentage (aka short) passing game, which should also be indicative of getting the ball out much more quickly, but then why the additional increase on QB Hurries and Hits.  

 

As to efficiency metrics, Allen obviously got notably worse in Brady's system;  down 10% in compl. %, 25% reduction in TD passes/game, and a large reduction in Rating of 11.1.  In fact, let's assume that Allen's metrics in Brady's system held for an entire 17-game season, and since they are an average of Brady's 7 regular season games as such.  Allen would finish with the following on the season with rankings by this past season in parentheses:  

 

4,148 Yards (8th) 

24 TDs  (tied for 11th)  

60.7% Compl. %  (30th) 

13th in 1st-Down %

85.5 Rating (23rd) 

 

Those numbers are only marginally better than his 2019 numbers of 20 TDs and 9 INTS (half), yet a mere 4 more TDs on an additional 1,000+ passing yards.  58.8% compl. %.   His Rating the same as in 2019.  People dismiss his average play with all kinds of narrative laden nonsense, but those are the numbers under Brady's system.  Sure, he'll tweak it, but also sure, he'll also have McDefense breathing down his neck to stick to his complimentary football approach of running the ball and running the passing game who knows how, and now without a single player on the team that's proven to command double-coverage downfield, and with half of Allen's TD and yardage recipients now gone from the team, and remarkably with us replacing Davis with someone absurdly similar.  

 

Keep in mind how narratives form.  They form by casual viewing and superficial results.  i.e., we went 6-1 down the stretch and salvaged our playoffs, so Brady gets the credit despite the fact that we averaged a pathetic 19.5 PPG offensively in our last three games, and against horrible defenses for that matter, and needed ST/D TDs in two of those games to win them.  Yet, it's attributed to Brady's being OC.  etc.  

 

I'm in the process of breaking down Coleman's every pass attempt video, and parsing it into segments.  But I've catalogued the data.  A third (32%) of Coleman's caught passes were behind the line-of-scrimmage.  A third.  This doesn't dissuade, or shouldn't, any criticisms of Coleman whatsoever.  

 

Coleman caught passes at FSU last season only 9 times beyond 14 yards in-the-air, aka air-distance.  

He had 23 more uncaught beyond 14 yards, and from what is clearly shown in the video, I have 12 of those being balls that he should have caught.  

 

Anyway, I'm digressing here.  More (video) breakdown on that to come.  

 

Either way, this narrative that Allen improved under Brady is simply false.  Nor did the offense improve.  There was obviously a McDefense-driven shift to running the ball more, but the passes clearly did not get shorter, and even if that were true there should have been a significant improvement in Allen's efficiency metrics, particularly his completion-% which dropped by a massive 10%, given that it would have been a high-percentage passing game.  

 

Diggs ran shorter routes, screens, short OTMs, a few backfield patterns, etc.  They obviously didn't send him long very often, barely even medium depth.  Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy there that he lost a step, which feeds into my unspoken theory that they were attempting to drive him out, perhaps hoping that there would have been a more cap-friendly solution.  That's another topic altogether.  

 

What Brady does to correct it remains to be seen, but does he have the authority and ability to push Allen back into his forte`?  Agreeing with you, if Allen ever were to master that shorter high-percentage passing game, this offense would be unstoppable.  But we were far from seeing that last season under Brady.   But if they're trying to turn Allen into more of what Purdy, Burrow, Hurts, other QBs and even Mahomes does, then it's questionable as to whether or not they get the results that they want.  

 

 

 

 

One way I look at the performance of a defense is by the number of stops it generates over the course of a game. (With a stop defined as a punt or a turnover.)

 

Look at what happened during the year of 13 seconds. The Chiefs' first playoff game was against the Steelers. The Steelers defense forced six defensive stops. Their next game was against the Bills. The Bills defense forced two stops: one in the first half, the other in the second. Their third playoff game was against the Bengals. The Bengals defense forced six stops, including a stop in overtime. (The Bills defense was also given a chance to generate a stop in overtime, but we all know how that went.) All this happened when the Chiefs still had Tyreek Hill.

 

Joe Burrow and the Bengals were barely good enough to get the win against the Chiefs, with those six defensive stops. Josh Allen's defense gave him only two stops--one third of what Burrow received. With those two stops, Allen took his team to within 13 seconds of winning.

 

Under McDermott, the Bills defense has never generated more than two defensive stops, in a playoff game against the Chiefs or the Bengals. In the most recent Super Bowl, the 49ers defense forced seven stops against the Chiefs. That's 3.5 times better than McDermott's best.

 

After the McDermott/Frazier soft zone/prevent defense inevitably collapses against the Chiefs in the playoffs, do you know what we hear? We hear a song and dance about how Allen will never win a postseason game against Mahomes. We hear that Mahomes is better, which is why he always wins. Nothing at all is said about the fact that Josh Allen's defense is only 1/3 as effective as the other postseason defenses Mahomes often faces.

 

 

Edited May 12 by Rampant Buffalo

[Billy Claude]

17 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Either way, this narrative that Allen improved under Brady is simply false.  Nor did the offense improve.  There was obviously a McDefense-driven shift to running the ball more, but the passes clearly did not get shorter, and even if that were true there should have been a significant improvement in Allen's efficiency metrics, particularly his completion-% which dropped by a massive 10%, given that it would have been a high-percentage passing game.  

 

 

 

 

I am impressed with the effort you made in your analysis and I am also concerned that about how well Allen's skillset and mindset fits the short game spread the ball around philosophy.

 

To address a slightly different but related question, I think that the reason why people feel that "eye-test" shows that the offense improved with Brady is that they are not comparing  Brady with Dorsey's entire 10 games 2023 season but just with Dorsey's last six games.  They are also looking the the performance of the whole team, not just the offense.  If we just look at a few team metrics:

 

Dorsey (first 4 games only):  391.0 yards per game, 34:18 time of possesion, 34.75 points per game (overtime data removed)

Dorsey (last 6 games only):  344.8 YPG, 26:50 TOP, 20.5 PPG

Dorsey(all 10 games): 363.3 YPG, 29:49 TOP, 26.2 YPG

 

Brady (7 games):  373.1 YPG 34:30 TOP, 26.6 PPG (overtime data removed)

 

You can see the teams metrics were significantly better under Brady compared to the last six games of Dorsey's tenure.  Is this a fair way to make the comparison?  Maybe not;  Allen was fighting thru an injury during some of Dorsey's last games and there is often an unsustainable bump when a new coach comes in.  Also the metrics used here are not completely offense and Dorsey's TOP numbers are strongly affected by the defense having just lost Milano and White.  However, they are the stats (besides W-L) that leave the strongest impression with viewers.

 

As often is the case with a small data set, one can support different narratives using reasonable arguments to exclude or include different parts of the data.  However, basically the same thing happened in 2022 where the offense looked unstoppable at the beginning of the season and then very out of joint at the end of the season.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 12 by Billy Claude

[oldmanfan]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

A 4th round pick for a short yardage back though?  

 

 

Who can also catch.  Who can also pass protect.  And so on.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 5/9/2024 at 8:31 AM, JerseyBills said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-ray-davis-impact

 

Always thought Fowler provided good if not great coverage and insight on a variety of nfl subjects,  so I was happy to see this write up on our 4th round RB. 

Also had no clue he was only the 3rd 4th round pick Beane has made here, with the 2 others being Taron and Gabe, some great value for the 4th round. Will Ray Ray continue the trend? 

 

So Beane tends to pick Davis's in the 4th round.  And if not a Davis at least a common name like Johnson.  No Ulofoshio's in the 4th, ever!

[NeverOutNick]

6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

 

One way I look at the performance of a defense is by the number of stops it generates over the course of a game. (With a stop defined as a punt or a turnover.)

 

Look at what happened during the year of 13 seconds. The Chiefs' first playoff game was against the Steelers. The Steelers defense forced six defensive stops. Their next game was against the Bills. The Bills defense forced two stops: one in the first half, the other in the second. Their third playoff game was against the Bengals. The Bengals defense forced six stops, including a stop in overtime. (The Bills defense was also given a chance to generate a stop in overtime, but we all know how that went.) All this happened when the Chiefs still had Tyreek Hill.

 

Joe Burrow and the Bengals were barely good enough to get the win against the Chiefs, with those six defensive stops. Josh Allen's defense gave him only two stops--one third of what Burrow received. With those two stops, Allen took his team to within 13 seconds of winning.

 

Under McDermott, the Bills defense has never generated more than two defensive stops, in a playoff game against the Chiefs or the Bengals. In the most recent Super Bowl, the 49ers defense forced seven stops against the Chiefs. That's 3.5 times better than McDermott's best.

 

After the McDermott/Frazier soft zone/prevent defense inevitably collapses against the Chiefs in the playoffs, do you know what we hear? We hear a song and dance about how Allen will never win a postseason game against Mahomes. We hear that Mahomes is better, which is why he always wins. Nothing at all is said about the fact that Josh Allen's defense is only 1/3 as effective as the other postseason defenses Mahomes often faces.

 

 

This is great research and another reason McD needs to be replaced by an offensive mind that will stay with Allen throughout his career like Reid and Mahomes. McD doesn’t bring any value and in most cases restricts Allen from his overall dominance. He’s the coach you bring in for a shift in culture, not to start a dynasty. I’m sure my take will get its share of dislikes and disagrees as per usual but it’s the truth

Edited May 12 by NeverOutNick

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

 

One way I look at the performance of a defense is by the number of stops it generates over the course of a game. (With a stop defined as a punt or a turnover.)

 

Look at what happened during the year of 13 seconds. The Chiefs' first playoff game was against the Steelers. The Steelers defense forced six defensive stops. Their next game was against the Bills. The Bills defense forced two stops: one in the first half, the other in the second. Their third playoff game was against the Bengals. The Bengals defense forced six stops, including a stop in overtime. (The Bills defense was also given a chance to generate a stop in overtime, but we all know how that went.) All this happened when the Chiefs still had Tyreek Hill.

 

Joe Burrow and the Bengals were barely good enough to get the win against the Chiefs, with those six defensive stops. Josh Allen's defense gave him only two stops--one third of what Burrow received. With those two stops, Allen took his team to within 13 seconds of winning.

 

Under McDermott, the Bills defense has never generated more than two defensive stops, in a playoff game against the Chiefs or the Bengals. In the most recent Super Bowl, the 49ers defense forced seven stops against the Chiefs. That's 3.5 times better than McDermott's best.

 

After the McDermott/Frazier soft zone/prevent defense inevitably collapses against the Chiefs in the playoffs, do you know what we hear? We hear a song and dance about how Allen will never win a postseason game against Mahomes. We hear that Mahomes is better, which is why he always wins. Nothing at all is said about the fact that Josh Allen's defense is only 1/3 as effective as the other postseason defenses Mahomes often faces.

 

 

Great stuff there!!   Thanks for taking the time! 

 

Completely agree, and Allen's the only player on our entire team that has routinely showed up come playoff time.  So we can factor that on as well.  

 

I've always said that an offense can't be blamed if it put up yards, drives, and 36 points for example.  

 

To bring this around to the discussion point, now we're dumbing down and showing down the strength of our offense and trying to turn it into something that's never been a strength.  

 

It's frustrating watching these Allen prime years being friends away like this.  

 

 

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Who can also catch.  Who can also pass protect.  And so on.

 

Try and follow along with the context.  🙂

 

 

[Augie]

38 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

This is great research and another reason McD needs to be replaced by an offensive mind that will stay with Allen throughout his career like Reid and Mahomes. McD doesn’t bring any value and in most cases restricts Allen from his overall dominance. He’s the coach you bring in for a shift in culture, not to start a dynasty. I’m sure my take will get its share of dislikes and disagrees as per usual but it’s the truth

 

It’s nice to know for sure who decides the truth. It must be a heavy burden. 

[PBF81]

7 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'm not necessarily prognosticating just saying IF Davis supplants Cook as the main back, I have no qualms with it.

I see where you're coming from with the seeming lack of a plan and the seeming trial and erros. If Cook remains the number one and Davis is most the third and shorts and goaline back we could still have a "fast" offense. But who knows. I don't think McD is an offensive guru so let's see what Brady does. 

 

I'd have qualms if Davis supplants Cook and ends up playing like Moss did here.  LOL  

 

What the team says can't be trusted or relied on.  

 

What every fan should have qualms over is the blatant lack of a year over year MO on offense.  

 

As to McDefense, he's already admitted that he doesn't know about offense.  No help there.  As to Brady, all we can do is wait and see what Brady does as we're merely helpless observers, and hope that he has enough room to change things as he sees fit.  But his body of work is detailed in that post, it's obvious that he's taking direction from McD, and due to both the lack of a year over year perceptible plan offensively, from both a draft as well as tactical approach, coupled with the type of skill-position talent we now have on offense, it seems pretty clear that whatever comes out of that door come September, it's not going to be what we've had up to now, much less playing to Allen's strengths.  Right?

 

Here's another quasi conundrum.  On one hand the false narrative is that our offense improved under Brady for to the changes that he made.  But once the evidence is presented that demonstrates that false conclusion, then the same arguers will say that Brady really didn't make any significant changes as he has to work with Dorsey's offense generally speaking.  LOL. 

 

 

[Augie]

40 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I'd have qualms if Davis supplants Cook and ends up playing like Moss did here.  LOL  

What the team says can't be trusted or relied on.  

What every fan should have qualms over is the blatant lack of a year over year MO on offense.  

 

As to McDefense, he's already admitted that he doesn't know about offense.  No help there.  As to Brady, all we can do is wait and see what Brady does as we're merely helpless observers, and hope that he has enough room to change things as he sees fit.  But his body of work is detailed in that post, it's obvious that he's taking direction from McD, and due to both the lack of a year over year perceptible plan offensively, from both a draft as well as tactical approach, coupled with the type of skill-position talent we now have on offense, it seems pretty clear that whatever comes out of that door come September, it's not going to be what we've had up to now, much less playing to Allen's strengths.  Right?

 

Here's another quasi conundrum.  On one hand the false narrative is that our offense improved under Brady for to the changes that he made.  But once the evidence is presented that demonstrates that false conclusion, then the same arguers will say that Brady really didn't make any significant changes as he has to work with Dorsey's offense generally speaking.  LOL. 

 

 

 

As to the bold, do you have a quote or a link or something? 

 

 

.

Edited May 12 by Augie

[oldmanfan]

On 5/9/2024 at 11:42 PM, PBF81 said:

 

Cook petered out late in the season.  He averaged a pathetic 3.6 yards-per-carry in his last five games.  Not sure whether that was how he was used or simply being unused to that many touches.  

 

How this season plays out will be incredibly interesting.  We had an even higher rated RB in Moss, very similar in style to Davis, and far more accomplished in college, and we didn't seem to know how to use him and didn't do much with him.  

 

There certainly isn't any clear plan in view.  

 

 

This is silly.  No clear plan in view?  You have no idea what Brady wants him to do yet.  There’s some context for you.

[SoMAn]

On 5/9/2024 at 8:48 AM, RiotAct said:

I’m going to call him Ray-Ray McDavis!

Don’t. Just don’t. 

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

It’s nice to know for sure who decides the truth. It must be a heavy burden. 

Lol It’s not that much of a burden when the expectations have been minimized by everyone involved. 

[LarryMadman]

With all that Cook brings to the table, maybe the powers that be got a little irritated with his would be TD dropsies, there were way too many. Also Davis should be an inside the 10 yard line back so Josh doesn't have to as Cook isnt that kind of back.

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I am impressed with the effort you made in your analysis and I am also concerned that about how well Allen's skillset and mindset fits the short game spread the ball around philosophy.

 

To address a slightly different but related question, I think that the reason why people feel that "eye-test" shows that the offense improved with Brady is that they are not comparing  Brady with Dorsey's entire 10 games 2023 season but just with Dorsey's last six games.  They are also looking the the performance of the whole team, not just the offense.  If we just look at a few team metrics:

 

Thanks!  And yes, I would agree with you there.  Otherwise you really said a mouthful, perhaps without intending to.  We could discuss this for pages as there are numerous complexities beyond high-level stats and "eye tests."  

 

 

4 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Dorsey (first 4 games only):  391.0 yards per game, 34:18 time of possesion, 34.75 points per game (overtime data removed)

Dorsey (last 6 games only):  344.8 YPG, 26:50 TOP, 20.5 PPG

Dorsey(all 10 games): 363.3 YPG, 29:49 TOP, 26.2 YPG

 

Brady (7 games):  373.1 YPG 34:30 TOP, 26.6 PPG (overtime data removed)

 

You can see the teams metrics were significantly better under Brady compared to the last six games of Dorsey's tenure.  Is this a fair way to make the comparison?  Maybe not;  Allen was fighting thru an injury during some of Dorsey's last games and there is often an unsustainable bump when a new coach comes in.  Also the metrics used here are not completely offense and Dorsey's TOP numbers are strongly affected by the defense having just lost Milano and White.  However, they are the stats (besides W-L) that leave the strongest impression with viewers.

 

That's a good topic for discussion.  Is it a fair way to make the comparison?   (BTW, I get 25.0 PPG, not 26.6.  Did you remove the STs and D TDs in the NE & Miami games?)  

 

If it is a fair way to make the comparison, then here's what I noticed about that.  You broke it down by the first 4 games and the last 6 games.  But our first game, season opener, on the road, was far more like one of Brady's late season games than much else.  I'd say games 2-4, then games 5-10, then games 11-14, and if we're going to apply the same standard, per your "unsustainable bump" comment above, and in fairness to the trend/pattern under Dorsey that began after four games, games 15-17.  That's to start, but let's create an order for discussion here.  

 

We as a team have a history of "unsustainable bumps" in our season-long performances.  We're typically very strong at the home-opener, and in the case of some games, typically at home, that are huge games.  The Dallas game fell into that category last season.  After our defensive collapse vs. the Eagles in allowing them their 2nd best offensive game on the season, a pall was cast over all things Bills.  But then next week, if for no other motivation, we beat our nemesis the Chiefs, which offered a renewed albeit slim hope for making the playoffs much less winning the division.  So we got up bigly (LOL) for the Dallas game and dusted them.  But then things kinda fell apart from a performance perspective despite the fact that we won the next three games, entirely unimpressively it can be added.  

 

Take the Chargers game.  We barely beat the Chargers and managed only 24 offensive points, while allowing 22 points to them.  First, this was a team fielding Easton Stick at QB, and to make matters less impressive, Ekeler at RB, and with two rookies, Derius Davis and Quentin Johnston at WR, perrenial 3/4 WR Palmer, journeyman Alex Erickson, and roster-bubble WR Jalen Guyton as their WR corp and with no TE of any significant consequence.  That's an offensive skill position roster that makes our WR cadre look like an All-Pro team.  

 

So was the defense holding that unit to 22 points and 273 yards, with Easton going a very efficient 23 of 33 for 215 passing yards, and another 25 rushing yards and a TD there, impressive?   Consider as well, that we allowed more points to that Herbert-less Chargers team than any of the other four teams that played them.  Additionally, five other teams held them to fewer points, a lot fewer in most cases, against the team when it had Herbert and Keenan Allen.  20, 17, 17, 10, and 6 there.  

 

So was that defensive performance really impressive?  ... or something to be regarded as something other than underachieving for a 4th ranked D?  

 

I won't go into the same detail, which also has mitigating circumstances per the above, like Zappe playing QB for NE, or the fact that the TD pass to Sherfield in the Miami game involved a lot of luck for that batted pass to end up where it did with Sherfield making a phenominal play after doing absolutely nothing significant all season.  But let's break it down by those last three games however using the same metrics that you used above.  

 

Brady Last Three Games:  

363 YPG

32:46 ToP

19.3 PPG 

 

What sticks out there?  

 

Similar YPG.  Marginally but relatively insignificant reduction in ToP.  But what, a near TD/game drop in production.  

 

So here's how I look at that and see more cause for concern than I do for hope.  With an average advantage in those three games of 82 YPG, 5:32 in ToP, 3.7 more 1st Downs, not to mention Allen v. Schtick & Zappe in two of those games, yet only a .3 PPG advantage?  

 

That's attributable to the offense.  In short, ball movement was similar, but our ability to put points on the board diminished significantly, very significantly in fact.  19.3 PPG would have been good for 26th in the league that's how poor it was.  And, at a time when every game was needed to simply make the playoffs.  Moreover, it's not as if any of those defenses were any good.  The Chargers ranked 24th, NE 15th, and Miami 22nd.  

 

So getting back to the question, is how you presented it a fair way to make a comparison?   Is it comprehensive?  Obviously not.  

 

I attribute it to the second bolded part, an unsustainable bump for a new coach, and, the meddling of a defensive-minded head coach who seemed to believe that the rushing from Cook in the Dallas game was sustainable over the long haul when there's absolutely nothing historically in his dossier that even remotely suggests that could even reasonably be the case.  Right?   

 

In fact, they talked about Allen running too much, then increased Allen's rushing load under Brady, going from 4.8 carries/game and 24.6 rushing yards, nearly doubling to 9.0 carries and 39.7 rushing yards.  Is that really where this team with Allen needs to go as he ages?  

 

Cook under Brady, apart from that single outlier Dallas game, saw his YPC avg. plummet to 3.6 YPC with not a TD to be found.  Is that sustainable?  One might say that's why we drafted Davis.  Well, OK, but that also involves an entirely different offensive mindset than pitched by McD a year ago and after ditching Moss, who once again, had a notably more prolific career both rushing and receiving than Davis did in college.  Moss' draft profiles are greater than Davis' as well.  So we'll see there, but honestly, why the hope there?  

 

 

4 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

As often is the case with a small data set, one can support different narratives using reasonable arguments to exclude or include different parts of the data.  However, basically the same thing happened in 2022 where the offense looked unstoppable at the beginning of the season and then very out of joint at the end of the season.

 

True, which is why I prefer as much info as possible.  

 

I would say that the offense looked fantastic in games 2-4 and in games 11, 12, and 14 under Brady and similar to Dorsey's fast start, as both seemed to settle into, not even mediocrity, but well below-average production otherwise and considering that we have Allen.  In our 11 other games we averaged 20.5 PPG, which on a season would be good for 20th on the season.  So while it's nice that we can dust poor teams like the Raiders, the Skins with their league worst D, a hapless Jets team by the time we played them, a very overrated Eagles team, and even Dallas who came off of an emotionally draining huge Sunday night game the week before, and of course Miami, who all but literally cannot beat us since we've had Allen, it's the steady-stated that matters.  

 

As to the two playoff games, our staff being out of answers on how to maximize our offensive roster, once again just stepped out of the way allowing Allen to do everything including running the ball, which they wisely said they wanted to get away from a year earlier thereby confusing matters even more, to the tune of over 40% of the rushing plays and all three rushing TDs.  

 

That unsustainable seems to apply here as well.  

 

Lastly, as to your statement where the offense looked unstoppable at the beginning of the season and then very out of joint at the end of the season.

 

Why do you think that is?  Do the other teams that win their divisional round games suffer from the same, year in and year out?  

 

Thoughts?  

 

 

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

This is silly.  No clear plan in view?  You have no idea what Brady wants him to do yet.  There’s some context for you.

 

Neither do you.  What we do know is what they say is not what they do.  

 

Acquire Hines as a prolific pass catcher out of the backfield, then don't even remotely use him in that capacity.  

 

All's well with Diggs when they've known or a while that it isn't.  

 

Need a faster offense with a Cook type RB.  Now we're going in the complete opposite direction.  

 

Draft Davis, someone with a worse draft profile (nfl.com and pff et al.) than Moss, with Moss having been more prolific at everything with similar build and style.  

 

There's more, but to start.  

 

Otherwise, what is their plan?  Is it evident?  

 

Otherwise feel free to quit stalking me.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

As to the bold, do you have a quote or a link or something? 

 

 

Come on now, McD openly stated in a press conference that he has zero answers as to solutions for our offense midseason last year.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks!  And yes, I would agree with you there.  Otherwise you really said a mouthful, perhaps without intending to.  We could discuss this for pages as there are numerous complexities beyond high-level stats and "eye tests."  

 

 

 

That's a good topic for discussion.  Is it a fair way to make the comparison?   (BTW, I get 25.0 PPG, not 26.6.  Did you remove the STs and D TDs in the NE & Miami games?)  

 

If it is a fair way to make the comparison, then here's what I noticed about that.  You broke it down by the first 4 games and the last 6 games.  But our first game, season opener, on the road, was far more like one of Brady's late season games than much else.  I'd say games 2-4, then games 5-10, then games 11-14, and if we're going to apply the same standard, per your "unsustainable bump" comment above, and in fairness to the trend/pattern under Dorsey that began after four games, games 15-17.  That's to start, but let's create an order for discussion here.  

 

We as a team have a history of "unsustainable bumps" in our season-long performances.  We're typically very strong at the home-opener, and in the case of some games, typically at home, that are huge games.  The Dallas game fell into that category last season.  After our defensive collapse vs. the Eagles in allowing them their 2nd best offensive game on the season, a pall was cast over all things Bills.  But then next week, if for no other motivation, we beat our nemesis the Chiefs, which offered a renewed albeit slim hope for making the playoffs much less winning the division.  So we got up bigly (LOL) for the Dallas game and dusted them.  But then things kinda fell apart from a performance perspective despite the fact that we won the next three games, entirely unimpressively it can be added.  

 

Take the Chargers game.  We barely beat the Chargers and managed only 24 offensive points, while allowing 22 points to them.  First, this was a team fielding Easton Stick at QB, and to make matters less impressive, Ekeler at RB, and with two rookies, Derius Davis and Quentin Johnston at WR, perrenial 3/4 WR Palmer, journeyman Alex Erickson, and roster-bubble WR Jalen Guyton as their WR corp and with no TE of any significant consequence.  That's an offensive skill position roster that makes our WR cadre look like an All-Pro team.  

 

So was the defense holding that unit to 22 points and 273 yards, with Easton going a very efficient 23 of 33 for 215 passing yards, and another 25 rushing yards and a TD there, impressive?   Consider as well, that we allowed more points to that Herbert-less Chargers team than any of the other four teams that played them.  Additionally, five other teams held them to fewer points, a lot fewer in most cases, against the team when it had Herbert and Keenan Allen.  20, 17, 17, 10, and 6 there.  

 

So was that defensive performance really impressive?  ... or something to be regarded as something other than underachieving for a 4th ranked D?  

 

I won't go into the same detail, which also has mitigating circumstances per the above, like Zappe playing QB for NE, or the fact that the TD pass to Sherfield in the Miami game involved a lot of luck for that batted pass to end up where it did with Sherfield making a phenominal play after doing absolutely nothing significant all season.  But let's break it down by those last three games however using the same metrics that you used above.  

 

Brady Last Three Games:  

363 YPG

32:46 ToP

19.3 PPG 

 

What sticks out there?  

 

Similar YPG.  Marginally but relatively insignificant reduction in ToP.  But what, a near TD/game drop in production.  

 

So here's how I look at that and see more cause for concern than I do for hope.  With an average advantage in those three games of 82 YPG, 5:32 in ToP, 3.7 more 1st Downs, not to mention Allen v. Schtick & Zappe in two of those games, yet only a .3 PPG advantage?  

 

That's attributable to the offense.  In short, ball movement was similar, but our ability to put points on the board diminished significantly, very significantly in fact.  19.3 PPG would have been good for 26th in the league that's how poor it was.  And, at a time when every game was needed to simply make the playoffs.  Moreover, it's not as if any of those defenses were any good.  The Chargers ranked 24th, NE 15th, and Miami 22nd.  

 

So getting back to the question, is how you presented it a fair way to make a comparison?   Is it comprehensive?  Obviously not.  

 

I attribute it to the second bolded part, an unsustainable bump for a new coach, and, the meddling of a defensive-minded head coach who seemed to believe that the rushing from Cook in the Dallas game was sustainable over the long haul when there's absolutely nothing historically in his dossier that even remotely suggests that could even reasonably be the case.  Right?   

 

In fact, they talked about Allen running too much, then increased Allen's rushing load under Brady, going from 4.8 carries/game and 24.6 rushing yards, nearly doubling to 9.0 carries and 39.7 rushing yards.  Is that really where this team with Allen needs to go as he ages?  

 

Cook under Brady, apart from that single outlier Dallas game, saw his YPC avg. plummet to 3.6 YPC with not a TD to be found.  Is that sustainable?  One might say that's why we drafted Davis.  Well, OK, but that also involves an entirely different offensive mindset than pitched by McD a year ago and after ditching Moss, who once again, had a notably more prolific career both rushing and receiving than Davis did in college.  Moss' draft profiles are greater than Davis' as well.  So we'll see there, but honestly, why the hope there?  

 

 

 

True, which is why I prefer as much info as possible.  

 

I would say that the offense looked fantastic in games 2-4 and in games 11, 12, and 14 under Brady and similar to Dorsey's fast start, as both seemed to settle into, not even mediocrity, but well below-average production otherwise and considering that we have Allen.  In our 11 other games we averaged 20.5 PPG, which on a season would be good for 20th on the season.  So while it's nice that we can dust poor teams like the Raiders, the Skins with their league worst D, a hapless Jets team by the time we played them, a very overrated Eagles team, and even Dallas who came off of an emotionally draining huge Sunday night game the week before, and of course Miami, who all but literally cannot beat us since we've had Allen, it's the steady-stated that matters.  

 

As to the two playoff games, our staff being out of answers on how to maximize our offensive roster, once again just stepped out of the way allowing Allen to do everything including running the ball, which they wisely said they wanted to get away from a year earlier thereby confusing matters even more, to the tune of over 40% of the rushing plays and all three rushing TDs.  

 

That unsustainable seems to apply here as well.  

 

Lastly, as to your statement where the offense looked unstoppable at the beginning of the season and then very out of joint at the end of the season.

 

Why do you think that is?  Do the other teams that win their divisional round games suffer from the same, year in and year out?  

 

Thoughts?  

 

 

 

Neither do you.  What we do know is what they say is not what they do.  

 

Acquire Hines as a prolific pass catcher out of the backfield, then don't even remotely use him in that capacity.  

 

All's well with Diggs when they've known or a while that it isn't.  

 

Need a faster offense with a Cook type RB.  Now we're going in the complete opposite direction.  

 

Draft Davis, someone with a worse draft profile (nfl.com and pff et al.) than Moss, with Moss having been more prolific at everything with similar build and style.  

 

There's more, but to start.  

 

Otherwise, what is their plan?  Is it evident?  

 

Otherwise feel free to quit stalking me.  

 

 

 

Come on now, McD openly stated in a press conference that he has zero answers as to solutions for our offense midseason last year.  

 

 

Challenging your assumptions is not stalking.  To presume there is no offensive plan is silly.

[<bills4life>]

4 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

This is great research and another reason McD needs to be replaced by an offensive mind that will stay with Allen throughout his career like Reid and Mahomes. McD doesn’t bring any value and in most cases restricts Allen from his overall dominance. He’s the coach you bring in for a shift in culture, not to start a dynasty. I’m sure my take will get its share of dislikes and disagrees as per usual but it’s the truth

You sir are spot on.

[Augie]

13 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Come on now, McD openly stated in a press conference that he has zero answers as to solutions for our offense midseason last year.  

 

 

 

Come on now, that is very different from McD “doesn’t know about offense.”  That’s quite a stretch, but I’m not at all surprised. And I’d still like to see the exact quote in context. 

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Challenging your assumptions is not stalking.  To presume there is no offensive plan is silly.

 

Constantly disagreeing with me while offering little if any substance to the contrary is not challenigng assumptions, it's stalking.  

 

I've asked you several times now what that offensive plan is, you've said/provided nothing.  

 

I've offered, based upon your "challenging of assumptions" if we can legitimately call it that, to go through a single game highlight reel, or more, and provide the answers to your challenges, but you refused and defaulted to the let's just wait and see "argument."  

 

Otherwise, when I engage with another poster that claims that the plan may be to use Davis as a short-yardage RB, per your quoting of me two of your posts above, and you leapfrog that entirely and inject narrative nonsense, yeah, I'd say that's stalking.  

 

I've offered quite a bit of my time in answering your questions, going through video, etc., but you constantly shut that down.  Other times you've challenged facts, not assumptions, then went on as if they didn't exist.   So again, yeah, at this point I consider it to be stalking.  

 

 

6 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Come on now, that is very different from McD “doesn’t know about offense.”  That’s quite a stretch, but I’m not at all surprised. And I’d still like to see the exact quote in context. 

 

The context was the offense.  

 

There were a slew of statements back then.  Read into them as you wish, but it was clear that he was referring to the offense.  

 

It's also not as if it's a big secret.  But hey, if you believe that McD has solutions on offense, who am I to argue.  And I'm sure he does, just not effective or knowledgeable ones, and the continued underachieving of our offense spells something out, a something that presumably could be argued.  

 

McD is also an expert at scapegoating reasons for our failures.  Reading here I think we're the only team in the league whose ultimate performance does not rely upon its head coach.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Constantly disagreeing with me while offering little if any substance to the contrary is not challenigng assumptions, it's stalking.  

 

I've asked you several times now what that offensive plan is, you've said/provided nothing.  

 

I've offered, based upon your "challenging of assumptions" if we can legitimately call it that, to go through a single game highlight reel, or more, and provide the answers to your challenges, but you refused and defaulted to the let's just wait and see "argument."  

 

Otherwise, when I engage with another poster that claims that the plan may be to use Davis as a short-yardage RB, per your quoting of me two of your posts above, and you leapfrog that entirely and inject narrative nonsense, yeah, I'd say that's stalking.  

 

I've offered quite a bit of my time in answering your questions, going through video, etc., but you constantly shut that down.  Other times you've challenged facts, not assumptions, then went on as if they didn't exist.   So again, yeah, at this point I consider it to be stalking.  

 

 

I just looked quickly and the Bills were 4th in YPG last year.  Is it possible you’re overreacting?