Ray Ray Davis pick receiving praise

[Warriorspikes51]

calling it now....he will steal RB1.  60-40  split in favor of Davis 

On 5/9/2024 at 10:31 AM, Logic said:

It seems to me like they took the guy most well suited to be a starting running back in the NFL. The most well rounded skillset.

Whereas Jaylen Wright or Isaac Guerendo may have offered more explosiveness, Will Shipley or Dylan Laube may have offered more in the passing game, Braelon Allen or Audric Estime may have offered more power, etc....Davis seemed to have the best blend of vision, speed, quicks, power, receiving ability, etc. 

I realize the Bills don't actually need a starting running back, but Davis seems to have the ability to be one.

On top of all that, I think his leadership, maturity, and the edge he plays with were all big selling points for Beane. He mentions specifically in the Embedded video that they were looking to add "leadership and dogs with edge", something like that. That's Ray Davis.

I think he'll be a good 1B to Cook's 1A. And if he winds up being a better pass blocker than Cook (a low bar to clear)....look out.

 

Great post!!!  

[PBF81]

47 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I think the idea is Davis and Johnson take some of the carries off Cook.  I expect similar amount of touches but more in space and out of the backfield.  Cook should be a primary player for the offense and used in a manner similar to Kamara.  

 

Well, we'll certainly see.  What they say when they draft and sign these guys is often diametrically opposed.  Jones is a great example.  

 

Seems likely that we're either going to have a very explosive season offensively, or that Allen's going to have a relatively down year statistically.   One or the other.  

 

 

24 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

That's not good but I think we used him under 5 min w the lead a ton and were content getting 5-7 yards combined on 1st and 2nd down when the D knew we were running, in order to burn clock  and skewed his average. 

Idk, overall Cook is a really good back imo and feel with Brady having a full off season , Cook will put up much better #s

 

He's also never gotten anywhere near as many carries & touches that he got last season, either in the NFL or in college.  

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, we'll certainly see.  What they say when they draft and sign these guys is often diametrically opposed.  Jones is a great example.  

 

Seems likely that we're either going to have a very explosive season offensively, or that Allen's going to have a relatively down year statistically.   One or the other.  

 

 

 

He's also never gotten anywhere near as many carries & touches that he got last season, either in the NFL or in college.  

 

 

 

Mahomes had a down year and they still won the SB

[QLBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You do realize Ty Johnson only rushed a total of 30 times for 130 yards on the season?   Total.   It's not like he's some young diamond in the rough,  it was the least productive season of his 5 year career and he was released by the Jets last summer.    He's JAG.   That's fine for a lightly used rotational RB but they didn't draft Ray Davis in the 4th round to be 3rd in the rotation to a street free agent type like Ty.  

 

They over-used the light-duty James Cook last year and he slowed noticeably down the stretch........so I suspect they are hoping to get 100+ carries from a workhorse back like Davis this year.   *Maybe* Ty Johnson can do that but his career high is 63 carries back in 2019.    Johnson is a journeyman 3rd RB and special teamer but as a veteran he is entitled to a higher base pay than a rookie like Gore so it's quite conceivable that they could cut Johnson.   The possibility also includes cutting him before camp breaks and bringing him back after week 1 when his salary is no longer guaranteed and he can be paid week to week.......which would be much more palatable for a 3rd RB.      

I think Davis will get far more snaps I agree. But I do think TJ has a role. We shall see. You certainly could be right on the $$$ aspect of roster decisions. 

[NewEra]

22 hours ago, dorquemada said:

 

Yeah i watched him a few times, and watch a lot of SEC Network (roll tide!) and I will tell you that Davis brings a great combination of tough running, slippery enough to make people miss, and dangerous out of the backfield.  I dont care that he's 24 or whatever. He's going to contribute immediately, and will be great later in the season when we need to wear out the other team by jamming the ball down their throats in inclement weather.

It’s funny when people talk about his age as if it matters.  He’ll be on the team for 4 years and then will leave unless he’s willing to play for less to stay.  

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

I think Davis will get far more snaps I agree. But I do think TJ has a role. We shall see. You certainly could be right on the $$$ aspect of roster decisions. 

 

 

Either way I just hope that whoever is out there produces in a big way.   I'd like to see them back to averaging 5.4 yards per carry and leading the AFC in rushing efficiency.   Not sure they've done enough in the passing game to open up that space but I think they have plenty of talent in the backfield.    My guess would be that if Cook and Davis are healthy they'd reserve all the carries for them.    Especially with Davis being a physical, between the tackles runner they may think they need to get him all of the carries Cook doesn't get to try to get him in the flow of the game.   I like Ty Johnson though.......he seems well suited to the task of special teams plus an occasional few touches on offense.

[chris heff]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

It's just Ray. His actual name is Re’Mahn

Thanks for clarifying, never saw Ray Davis called “Ray Ray” anywhere.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Mahomes had a down year and they still won the SB

 

No argument here.  But again, we get into the why of it all.  

 

One argument is that they finally had a top defense (2nd ranked), but it didn't fold in the playoffs.  They allowed 7, 24, 10, and 22 points, for an average of 16 PPG in the playoffs, and against teams ranked 2nd, 6th, 4th, and 3rd in scoring.  

 

Contrast that with our Ds over the past three seasons.  

 

2021:  

We had the 1st ranked D and allowed 17 and 36 in regulation to the 6th ranked (NE) and 4th ranked offenses.  

 

2022:  

We had the 2nd ranked D and allowed 24 (Skylar Thompson) and 27 points to the 11th and 7th ranked offenses.  Keep in mind that Miami was nowhere near 11th with Thompson at the helm.  In fact, of his three starts, his best game was vs. us, in Buffalo.  Minnesota and their 28th ranked D held him to notably worse.  

 

2023:  

We had the 4th ranked D and allowed 17 and 27 to the 28th and 15th ranked offenses.  Also here, the Steelers (28th) were playing a backup QB.  

 

In 2021 the Chiefs only scored more points all season against the Raiders' 26th ranked D twice, the Eagles' 18th ranked D, and the Steelers' 20th ranked D.  

 

In 2022 the Fins only scored more points against the Texans' 27th ranked D, the Lions' 28th ranked D, the Bears' 32nd (DFL) ranked D, the Browns' 20th ranked D, and the Ravens' 3rd ranked D.  The Bengals only scored more points vs. the 9th ranked Saints, the 13th ranked Bucs, the 23rd ranked Falcons, the 10th ranked Steelers, and the 19th ranked Panthers.  

 

In 2023 the Chiefs only scored more points against the 9th ranked Raiders' D, the 24th ranked Chargers' D, and the 20th ranked Bears' D.  

 

Whether or not that's impressive is apparently in the eyes of the beholder, but mathematically it's underachieving when weighing our defensive ranking contrasted with our defensive performances in contrast to all the teams ranked worse than us, which in 2020 were all 31 other teams, in 2021 were 30 teams, and 2022 were 28 teams.  

 

 

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

That's not good but I think we used him under 5 min w the lead a ton and were content getting 5-7 yards combined on 1st and 2nd down when the D knew we were running, in order to burn clock  and skewed his average. 

 

 

After some thought, that was actually the case prior to the last five games.  He only had four 3rd-down carries all season.  

 

We were never up by any significant amount in any of the last five games.  We lost one of those games and nearly lost the others with the D/STs bailing is out twice.  

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You do realize Ty Johnson only rushed a total of 30 times for 130 yards on the season?   Total.   It's not like he's some young diamond in the rough,  it was the least productive season of his 5 year career and he was released by the Jets last summer.    He's JAG.   That's fine for a lightly used rotational RB but they didn't draft Ray Davis in the 4th round to be 3rd in the rotation to a street free agent type like Ty.  

 

They over-used the light-duty James Cook last year and he slowed noticeably down the stretch........so I suspect they are hoping to get 100+ carries from a workhorse back like Davis this year.   *Maybe* Ty Johnson can do that but his career high is 63 carries back in 2019.    Johnson is a journeyman 3rd RB and special teamer but as a veteran he is entitled to a higher base pay than a rookie like Gore so it's quite conceivable that they could cut Johnson.   The possibility also includes cutting him before camp breaks and bringing him back after week 1 when his salary is no longer guaranteed and he can be paid week to week.......which would be much more palatable for a 3rd RB.      

 

Johnson signed a $1.15M contract with $667k guaranteed.  Cutting him and keeping Gore would cost more than just keeping Ty.

I see it's Johnson's job to lose the RB3 role.  I see Ty on the team this year and Gore to the PS if he is looking ok.

Gore has to show something on special teams if he wants a job this or next year.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

That's not good but I think we used him under 5 min w the lead a ton and were content getting 5-7 yards combined on 1st and 2nd down when the D knew we were running, in order to burn clock  and skewed his average. 

Idk, overall Cook is a really good back imo and feel with Brady having a full off season , Cook will put up much better #s

 

BTW, I just looked out of morbid curiosity.  

 

Cook's splits are that he averaged 5.3 ypc while leading, 3.7 while tied, 4.5 while trailing.  FWIW  

 

In the last five games, keeping in mind that except for late in the Steelers playoff game we were never up comfortably enough to run the clock if we were even up at all, here are his carries in the 4th quarters of those games:  

 

Chargers:  

While leading, 5, 6, 5 yards

While trailing, 3, 2, 4, 2, -3 

 

NE:  

While leading only  2, 1, 0 

 

Miami:  

While tied:  3, -2 

 

Steelers (playoffs):  

While leading by a TD:  9, 3, 1  

 

KC:  

While trailing by 3:  -3, -4, 0, 1

 

So that theory doesn't really hold any water.  

 

 

[dorquemada]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

It’s funny when people talk about his age as if it matters.  He’ll be on the team for 4 years and then will leave unless he’s willing to play for less to stay.  

 

Yeah I know my point is ppl acting like a 24 year old is counting the minutes until they can get social security.  Most of them were the same people who were mad when we didn't bring frank gore back at age 54

[JerseyBills]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

BTW, I just looked out of morbid curiosity.  

 

Cook's splits are that he averaged 5.3 ypc while leading, 3.7 while tied, 4.5 while trailing.  FWIW  

 

In the last five games, keeping in mind that except for late in the Steelers playoff game we were never up comfortably enough to run the clock if we were even up at all, here are his carries in the 4th quarters of those games:  

 

Chargers:  

While leading, 5, 6, 5 yards

While trailing, 3, 2, 4, 2, -3 

 

NE:  

While leading only  2, 1, 0 

 

Miami:  

While tied:  3, -2 

 

Steelers (playoffs):  

While leading by a TD:  9, 3, 1  

 

KC:  

While trailing by 3:  -3, -4, 0, 1

 

So that theory doesn't really hold any water.  

 

 

Thank you for the research.  

I did zero research with my comment, just from what I recall and it was mainly meant to say when we had a lead late, Brady was comfortable and in favor of running clock, knowing they'll likely get limited yards. 

Not trailing or tied, just with a lead. 

But nonetheless it's concerning to see the negative and only 1-4 yard runs while trailing or tied, that's unacceptable imo, you'd think we'd have an advantage on the ground in those situations. 

 

But hopefully Brady gets more creative and not so predictable in those situations.  When he went 6 OL with Edwards and Davis at WR, you knew it was a run majority of time, they still had success w that personnel and I like it but would just like to see more passing/PA to keep Ds honest, it could really become a dangerous dimension and Coleman likely takes the Davis role there, so maybe we'll see more variety

Edited May 11 by JerseyBills

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, dorquemada said:

Yeah I know my point is ppl acting like a 24 year old is counting the minutes until they can get social security.  Most of them were the same people who were mad when we didn't bring frank gore back at age 54

 

Gore was 44, not 54.

 

At age 34 Ray Davis is definitely older than the average rookie. By comparison Tremaine Edmunds is going into his 7th season and he's only 21... but every athlete is different so in that regard, age is just a number.

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

Thank you for the research.  

I did zero research with my comment, just from what I recall and it was mainly meant to say when we had a lead late, Brady was comfortable and in favor of running clock, knowing they'll likely get limited yards. 

Not trailing or tied, just with a lead. 

But nonetheless it's concerning to see the negative and only 1-4 yard runs while trailing or tied, that's unacceptable imo, you'd think we'd have an advantage on the ground in those situations. 

 

But hopefully Brady gets more creative and not so predictable in those situations.  When he went 6 OL with Edwards and Davis at WR, you knew it was a run majority of time, they still had success w that personnel and I like it but would just like to see more passing/PA to keep Ds honest, it could really become a dangerous dimension and Coleman likely takes the Davis role there, so maybe we'll see more variety

 

Sure, always welcome.  I love doing that kind of stuff, I do it for fun.  

 

Brady was a master in the high-percentage passing game.  Allen needs to focus on it, it doesn't come naturally for him.  

 

As to the creativity, we'll definitely need some with this caste.  

 

 

[JerseyBills]

51 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Sure, always welcome.  I love doing that kind of stuff, I do it for fun.  

 

Brady was a master in the high-percentage passing game.  Allen needs to focus on it, it doesn't come naturally for him.  

 

As to the creativity, we'll definitely need some with this caste.  

 

 

Much appreciated 

 

Ya I've been saying since 2019 , if Allen takes the check down when needed, he'd be literally unstoppable. 

 

He seemed to get much better at it under Brady.

 

My concern was confirmed recently when the NE defender , forget who, maybe a media guy now, said they were told to completely ignore defending check downs while playing Allen.  That's wild! And he still dominated 

Edited May 11 by JerseyBills

[PBF81]

15 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Much appreciated 

 

Ya I've been saying since 2019 , if Allen takes the check down when needed, he'd be literally unstoppable. 

 

He seemed to get much better at it under Brady.

 

My concern was confirmed recently when the NE defender , forget who, maybe a media guy now, said they were told to completely ignore defending check downs while playing Allen.  That's wild! And he still dominated 

 

Thanks for the civil discourse!!  

 

Interesting quote although it's obviously not surprising.  

 

I couldn't agree more on your first statement, in fact, you may have seen me post about how if he did that efficiently, then we'd be a record-breaking offense, and I mean not merely Bills, but NFL.  I thought that we were headed there after our first few games last season.  

 

I do not agree on the better at it under Brady.  From what I've seen and studied, which is relatively extensive, the entire reason why his metrics/stats got worse under Brady was entirely because he was put into that situation, which again, is not his forte.  I believe he could get much better at it but I do not believe that he has the proper offensive coaching staff in place to get that out of him, particularly as it's guided by a defensive mindset.  

 

For example, here are his pre & post Brady metrics: 

 

Pre-Brady (Dorsey)

260 passing yards/game

70.3% compl. %

1.9 TDs/game

1.1 INTs/game 

1.3 Sacks/game 

96.6 Rating 

7.4 YPA 

Hurried on 8.6% of attempts 

Hit on 8.0% of attempts 

1st-Down% 33.7% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs)  

Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 8.4 Yards out

______________________________

 

Under Brady

244 passing yards/game 

60.7% compl. %

1.4 TDs/game

1.0 INTs/game 

1.6 Sacks/game 

85.5 Rating 

7.5 YPA 

Hurried on 9.2% of attempts 

Hit on 10.0% of attempts 

1st-Down% 32.8% (includes TDs & 1st-Downs)  

Average Depth of Target/Attempt - 9.1 Yards out 

 

So if we analyze that data against the narrative that he improved under Brady, and that the passing game turned shorter, but that's obviously not the case.  The depth of target alone tells us clearly that that's false.  Also, if his game was truly shorter under Brady, it would be much closer to that high-percentage (aka short) passing game, which should also be indicative of getting the ball out much more quickly, but then why the additional increase on QB Hurries and Hits.  

 

As to efficiency metrics, Allen obviously got notably worse in Brady's system;  down 10% in compl. %, 25% reduction in TD passes/game, and a large reduction in Rating of 11.1.  In fact, let's assume that Allen's metrics in Brady's system held for an entire 17-game season, and since they are an average of Brady's 7 regular season games as such.  Allen would finish with the following on the season with rankings by this past season in parentheses:  

 

4,148 Yards (8th) 

24 TDs  (tied for 11th)  

60.7% Compl. %  (30th) 

13th in 1st-Down %

85.5 Rating (23rd) 

 

Those numbers are only marginally better than his 2019 numbers of 20 TDs and 9 INTS (half), yet a mere 4 more TDs on an additional 1,000+ passing yards.  58.8% compl. %.   His Rating the same as in 2019.  People dismiss his average play with all kinds of narrative laden nonsense, but those are the numbers under Brady's system.  Sure, he'll tweak it, but also sure, he'll also have McDefense breathing down his neck to stick to his complimentary football approach of running the ball and running the passing game who knows how, and now without a single player on the team that's proven to command double-coverage downfield, and with half of Allen's TD and yardage recipients now gone from the team, and remarkably with us replacing Davis with someone absurdly similar.  

 

Keep in mind how narratives form.  They form by casual viewing and superficial results.  i.e., we went 6-1 down the stretch and salvaged our playoffs, so Brady gets the credit despite the fact that we averaged a pathetic 19.5 PPG offensively in our last three games, and against horrible defenses for that matter, and needed ST/D TDs in two of those games to win them.  Yet, it's attributed to Brady's being OC.  etc.  

 

I'm in the process of breaking down Coleman's every pass attempt video, and parsing it into segments.  But I've catalogued the data.  A third (32%) of Coleman's caught passes were behind the line-of-scrimmage.  A third.  This doesn't dissuade, or shouldn't, any criticisms of Coleman whatsoever.  

 

Coleman caught passes at FSU last season only 9 times beyond 14 yards in-the-air, aka air-distance.  

He had 23 more uncaught beyond 14 yards, and from what is clearly shown in the video, I have 12 of those being balls that he should have caught.  

 

Anyway, I'm digressing here.  More (video) breakdown on that to come.  

 

Either way, this narrative that Allen improved under Brady is simply false.  Nor did the offense improve.  There was obviously a McDefense-driven shift to running the ball more, but the passes clearly did not get shorter, and even if that were true there should have been a significant improvement in Allen's efficiency metrics, particularly his completion-% which dropped by a massive 10%, given that it would have been a high-percentage passing game.  

 

Diggs ran shorter routes, screens, short OTMs, a few backfield patterns, etc.  They obviously didn't send him long very often, barely even medium depth.  Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy there that he lost a step, which feeds into my unspoken theory that they were attempting to drive him out, perhaps hoping that there would have been a more cap-friendly solution.  That's another topic altogether.  

 

What Brady does to correct it remains to be seen, but does he have the authority and ability to push Allen back into his forte`?  Agreeing with you, if Allen ever were to master that shorter high-percentage passing game, this offense would be unstoppable.  But we were far from seeing that last season under Brady.   But if they're trying to turn Allen into more of what Purdy, Burrow, Hurts, other QBs and even Mahomes does, then it's questionable as to whether or not they get the results that they want.  

 

 

Edited May 11 by PBF81

[Nephilim17]

On 5/10/2024 at 11:21 AM, Warriorspikes51 said:

calling it now....he will steal RB1.  60-40  split in favor of Davis 

On 5/9/2024 at 10:31 AM, Logic said:

I thought Cook had a good year but in a Joe Marino podcast I believe the day we traded Steph (so that Cook podcast was overlooked by many) Joe was fairly critical of Cook and not as high on him as many. I vaguely remember Joe saying the line actually opened a lot of holes for Cook and while he was good in certain respects, he was limited and not a true feature back.

So if Davis picks up more carries and is a better blocker and inside runner and good in the short-yardage TD situations, I don't mind. Cook is in his third year; I don't want to extend him for substantial money given the position. Let's do what smart teams do and not pay running backs, just draft them and let them go and replace with cheap drafted labor.
 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

I thought Cook had a good year but in a Joe Marino podcast I believe the day we traded Steph (so that Cook podcast was overlooked by many) Joe was fairly critical of Cook and not as high on him as many. I vaguely remember Joe saying the line actually opened a lot of holes for Cook and while he was good in certain respects, he was limited and not a true feature back.

So if Davis picks up more carries and is a better blocker and inside runner and good in the short-yardage TD situations, I don't mind. Cook is in his third year; I don't want to extend him for substantial money given the position. Let's do what smart teams do and not pay running backs, just draft them and let them go and replace with cheap drafted labor.
 

 

I wouldn't disagree with your prognostication here.  Cook also isn't used on 3rd-downs because he's not a classic 3-down RB, he's far from the guy that will get you the short, tough yards.  He also wore down over the last fourth of the season with his average production and efficiency metrics dropping severely.  His per-touch average was pathetic over his last five games and five of the nine under Brady.  That's a chicken/egg thing though.  This is the most curious and will be the most interesting season in McD's career to date.  

 

Moss had a far more notable collegiate career and production than Davis, so I'm curious about this.  But perhaps most curious is that just last offseason McD said that he wanted to go to a faster, quicker offense, which they did with Cook.  Now, what, they seem to be slowing it down again.  

 

Once again, the team seems to jump all over the place on offensive MO and there's almost no plan that's perceptible much less consistent.  It's almost like on the offensive side it's been trial and error for seven seasons now.  

 

 

Edited May 11 by PBF81

[Nephilim17]

8 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I wouldn't disagree with your prognostication here.  Cook also isn't used on 3rd-downs because he's not a classic 3-down RB, he's far from the guy that will get you the short, tough yards.  He also wore down over the last fourth of the season with his average production and efficiency metrics dropping severely.  His per-touch average was pathetic over his last five games and five of the nine under Brady.  That's a chicken/egg thing though.  This is the most curious and will be the most interesting season in McD's career to date.  

 

Moss had a far more notable collegiate career and production than Davis, so I'm curious about this.  But perhaps most curious is that just last offseason McD said that he wanted to go to a faster, quicker offense, which they did with Cook.  Now, what, they seem to be slowing it down again.  

 

Once again, the team seems to jump all over the place on offensive MO and there's almost no plan that's perceptible much less consistent.  It's almost like on the offensive side it's been trial and error for seven seasons now.  

 

 

I'm not necessarily prognosticating just saying IF Davis supplants Cook as the main back, I have no qualms with it. 

I see where you're coming from with the seeming lack of a plan and the seeming trial and erros. If Cook remains the number one and Davis is most the third and shorts and goaline back we could still have a "fast" offense. But who knows. I don't think McD is an offensive guru so let's see what Brady does.