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2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.


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3 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

That’s a good way to look at it. Just wish he would’ve used and took someone like Bub Means or Ainais Smith with the high 5th rounder instead of trading one of them for a 4th next year. But Beane will be Beane 

 

I don't know I thought that trade was a no brainer at the time. 5th round is where all the draftniks said the value of this draft class fell off a cliff. We got back a free mid to high 4th round pick next year, I can't argue with that. I'm as annoyed as anyone that we didn't take two WRs in this draft but I don't think that trade is what prevented it. In the later rounds they were drafting guys that they were confident could make the team (or would not be poached by another team at final cutdowns), and for whatever reason they don't think a late round WR has a shot of beating out... Mack Hollins..... I don't get it but that's what they told us with their actions.

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11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The 5th year option is a bargaining chip, it isn't something you make draft decisions around. In fact by the trade value chart the drop off in value from #32 to #33 is slightly LESS than the drop off in value from the adjacent picks just before and after, which signals that GMs see those picks as CLOSER in value. I would guess it's because #33 gets paid about $2.2M less than #32 over the life of their 4 year contract which is not insubstantial.

 

In general you don't give up almost two full rounds (59 picks) of draft value because you're worried about something that doesn't come into play until 2029 when Josh Allen is 33 years old.

 

Beane has been on record in the past saying how important the fifth year option was.  Has he even not picked up a 5th year option?  Is Ed Oliver on this team without the fifth year option?  

 

You 100% worry about the fifth year option right now.  It's the reason why Carolina traded up into the first.  Happens every year with teams getting back into the 1st for the 5th year option.  

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Exactly, it was even on the trade value chart, which means the Bills shouldn't have done it.  It should have taken a massive overpay to make the trade.

 

There was an analytics guy after the trade that said the net points the Bills got in this trade, was the 4th worst ever.  These draft trades very rarely end up equal.

 

Why should it have taken an overpay? KC allowed us to recoup our 3rd rounder for a player they were likely to get anyways. There was no massive bidding war for our pick. Why would we dig our heels in the sand only to get the same exact outcome for both teams but with us still having no 3rd rounder? It was an easy decision and I'm glad Beane did it instead of playing scared of the boogeyman.

 

What analytics guy and points according to what draft value chart? The Rich Hill model has been proven to be more accurate than the old Jimmy Johnson model. I very much doubt that giving up exact equal value on that chart goes down as the "4th worst trade value ever." That's inherently absurd.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=Buf

 

Edited by HappyDays
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10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know I thought that trade was a no brainer at the time. 5th round is where all the draftniks said the value of this draft class fell off a cliff. We got back a free mid to high 4th round pick next year, I can't argue with that. I'm as annoyed as anyone that we didn't take two WRs in this draft but I don't think that trade is what prevented it. In the later rounds they were drafting guys that they were confident could make the team (or would not be poached by another team at final cutdowns), and for whatever reason they don't think a late round WR has a shot of beating out... Mack Hollins..... I don't get it but that's what they told us with their actions.

 

I agree with you that no WR was really worth it at that point.. we'd just be throwing them into the pile with Shorter, Shavers etc..

 

I do think they crushed the 5th Round though.  Love the VPG pick and think Solomon is incredibly intriguing on this Defense if he translates as a pass rush specialist. 

 

Don't have an opinion on Olofoshio either way, but a lot of draft guys like Jeremiah thought he was a great value pick. 

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


Do you think McDermott had input on Bishop and Carter who were picked at the end of Round 2 and 3? 
 

Are there other guys  they might have agreed if they get picked beforehand ?

 

 

This is a very funny attempt at a “gotcha” that the 7 year HC has input on the draft lol

Edited by FireChans
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7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why should it have taken an overpay? KC allowed us to recoup our 3rd rounder for a player they were likely to get anyways. There was no massive bidding war for our pick. Why would we dig our heels in the sand only to get the same exact outcome for both teams but with us still having no 3rd rounder? It was an easy decision and I'm glad Beane did it instead of playing scared of the boogeyman.

 

What analytics guy and points according to what draft value chart? The Rich Hill model has been proven to be more accurate than the old Jimmy Johnson model. I very much doubt that giving up exact equal value on that chart goes down as the "4th worst trade value ever." That's inherently absurd.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=Buf

 

Exactly 

Coleman was our guy, I'm sure that was obviously the best offer, regardless of any chart and value, we still got our guy + a 3rd.. win win. 

He knew nobody would take wr 29-31 and pretty certain Morgan told him they wouldn't take Coleman. 

Phenomenal maneuvering imo

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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Beane if anything is too honest for his own good.

He just isn't wearing his used car salesman uniform. Remember when he had the entire NFL believing he was all in for Breece Hall? That we were trading up for a top 3 WR? When he said Diggs wasn't going anywhere? He's slicker than alligator poop on a bald-tired semi on a mile of wet asphalt. The proof is that you think he's an honest guy. He could tell you you're laid off and you'd thank him for letting you pack up your desk.  He could convince you that you could out pizza the hut! 

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4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I agree with you that no WR was really worth it at that point.. we'd just be throwing them into the pile with Shorter, Shavers etc..

 

I do think they crushed the 5th Round though.  Love the VPG pick and think Solomon is incredibly intriguing on this Defense if he translates as a pass rush specialist. 

 

Don't have an opinion on Olofoshio either way, but a lot of draft guys like Jeremiah thought he was a great value pick. 

Ya i loved the 5th as well. And added a 4 for next year, excellent!!

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15 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

Is Ed Oliver on this team without the fifth year option? 

 

Uh, yes? We extended him before his 5th year option officially kicked in. Maybe it gave us an extra two months to negotiate, but that's all.

 

Like I said, it's a bargaining chip. The same effect can be had by using the franchise tag if you really need it. The 5th year option is most useful for players like Edmunds or Rousseau where you're not quite sure what you have and you want that one extra year of tape to see if they're worth extending.

 

15 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

You 100% worry about the fifth year option right now.  It's the reason why Carolina traded up into the first.

 

No, they did it for the same reason Minnesota swapped one pick with NY at #10 - they got scared we would trade back with someone else (likely aided by a bit of salesmanship from Beane) and they would lose out on getting their guy. This happens all the time.

 

Again, look at the trade value chart. #31 to #32 is -6 points. #32 to #33 is -4 points. #33 to #34 is -5 points. Teams are telling you that the 5th year option is worth less than the drop off in total contract value.

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Small nugget in there I found interesting. When the Bills were on the board late they wanted a returner and selected Hardy. That's what they referred to him as. That tells me they view him as a KR/PR and what they may get from him at CB is a bonus IMO. 

 

He's making the roster and playing on Sundays unless he totally craps the bed in TC.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Every coach has input. Some coaches run the whole thing. McD isn’t one of them.


Never says he “runs”  anything …. plenty of input though 

Edited by Aussie Joe
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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:


Never says he “runs”  anything …. plenty of input though 

So what is your point? 
 

Would you prefer Beane draft 3-4 backers and ends that don’t have roles on McD’s defense?

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9 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Coleman was our guy, I'm sure that was obviously the best offer, regardless of any chart and value, we still got our guy + a 3rd.. win win. 

 

I don't think Coleman was "our guy" but he was definitely one of a cluster of guys that we had graded as high 2nd rounders. For all the talk of the WR class there were only four that were seen as consensus 1st rounders. I always thought trading back into the 2nd and recouping a 3rd in the process, then taking the best WR available, was the best possible outcome.

 

If there's anything to take away from this Embedded video it's that GMs including Beane don't have a strict vertical board they're following where they're just ticking off names one after the other and taking the absolute BPA when it's their turn. They are grouping guys into tiers and taking someone from their Best Available Tier (BAT?) who also fills a need.

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Just now, FireChans said:

So what is your point? 
 

Would you prefer Beane draft 3-4 backers and ends that don’t have roles on McD’s defense?


I have made my point plenty of times already ,,,

 

I

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

You are totally right that McDermott has a significant input into the vision. I'd even say he is the driver of that, but he and Beane are totally aligned

 

Just now, Aussie Joe said:


I have made my point plenty of times already ,,,

 

I

So you agree with GB here?

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15 hours ago, DJB said:

I don’t have the exact quote but Beane basically said once he saw the last guy going his last tier he wanted Coleman in the next tier.

 

Can probably say that was Thomas he was referring to

It was.  I had someone confirm what most thought anyway, he would've moved up a few spots to get him had he slipped past Jax.

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