2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.

[Aussie Joe]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How many others? 5? 10? 20? How big do you think their real board is then? Because if they could only draft people with the McDermott tick it would reduce the board down to the guys he has evaluated in detail. What if those guys are not there? Everyone on the board is considered by the Bills draftable. Brandon Beane decides who to draft. 

I’ would say about 50-60 might be an achievable number … he has had months since the season ended to get up to speed on this… Now …Im not saying that he knows them all as detailed as Beane’s team does …and perhaps he might not be spending a lot of time on say a guy like Joe Alt who is unlikely to find his way to the Bills…

 

I doubt he is looking at guys they value  beyond the 5th Round …  and I’m sure they have prioritised some position groups above others  … 
 

McDermott attends the Senior Bowl, Combine and the Top 30 interviews… they are probably putting lines through some guys after some of those meetings… and are influenced positively by others ..

 

 

 

 

25 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Don't waste your breath.  The "McD is the puppetmaster" crowd only dig their heels in deeper...

 

It's a weird psychological reaction some have to hearing facts that don't support their mistaken beliefs.

 

Take a chill pill mate … I have said nothing of the sort …

 

 

Edited May 8 by Aussie Joe

[Billy Claude]

29 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Forgive me, I apparently should have typed "what competent NFL GMs working in functional organizations..."

 

I thought that was self-explanatory.

 

 

 

Well, then you should have been more specific.  After all, there appears to be many posters that regard the Bills as a dysfunctional organization with everyone under the iron micromanaging fist of Sean McDermott.

 

 

[BillsVet]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

And then Beane took the running back..... because Beandon runs personnel not McDermott.

 

They spend months evaluating their season, identifying areas of improvement and personnel priorities, strategizing, and setting up their board.    

 

To conclude from one carefully edited video anything concrete is  unrealistic.  That board is built after all that off-season self-analysis is complete. 

 

Tendencies have merged from several drafts and UFA signings now.  Sometimes, what they say offers insight into their overall strategy, like McD saying they want to run the ball better ever since the 2020 season ended.

 

Those tendencies are out in the open now...like not taking WR/TE in 2021-22 and being forced to by 2023-24.  Or seeing Brady get them in the second half of the 2023 season back to evening out the run to pass ratio.  

 

I'd argue the overall vision is pretty consistent pre-Josh becoming a franchise guy compared to now.  This isn't about a RD4 RB or a RD5 C either.  It's about their vision, which on offense doesn't come off as innovative.  It's safe, and that's a characteristic McD has been since Day 1.    

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’ would say about 50-60 might be an achievable number … he has had months since the season ended to get up to speed on this… Now …Im not saying that he knows them all as detailed as Beane’s team does …and perhaps he might not be spending a lot of time on say a guy like Joe Alt who is unlikely to find his way to the Bills…

 

I doubt he is looking at guys they value  beyond the 5th Round …  and I’m sure they have prioritised some position groups above others  … 
 

McDermott attends the Senior Bowl, Combine and the Top 30 interviews… they are probably putting lines through some guys after some of those meetings… and are influenced positively by others ..

 

 

That is not what Head Coaches do between the season and the draft. By the time they have got through exit interviews, staff changes, self scouting, deciding on schematic changes, engaging with the FO on sign / re-sign decisions, prepared their programme for OTAs and mini-camps..... they really do not have time to sit there doing the GM's job as well. 

 

He actually rarely attends the Senior Bowl these days actually. I'm not 100% sure but I think the last time he went was 2019. He does the Combine interviews and he no doubt meets people on top 30 visits and you are right those do affect the final board. But if a guy has a line through him after that he is off the board. So there wouldn't need to then a discussion on draft night where he tells Beane not to draft him. 

 

Everyone who is on the board is available for Brandon Beane to draft. And he decides which ones to pick. That is just the way it works. 

12 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

They spend months evaluating their season, identifying areas of improvement and personnel priorities, strategizing, and setting up their board.    

 

To conclude from one carefully edited video anything concrete is  unrealistic.  That board is built after all that off-season self-analysis is complete. 

 

Tendencies have merged from several drafts and UFA signings now.  Sometimes, what they say offers insight into their overall strategy, like McD saying they want to run the ball better ever since the 2020 season ended.

 

Those tendencies are out in the open now...like not taking WR/TE in 2021-22 and being forced to by 2023-24.  Or seeing Brady get them in the second half of the 2023 season back to evening out the run to pass ratio.  

 

I'd argue the overall vision is pretty consistent pre-Josh becoming a franchise guy compared to now.  This isn't about a RD4 RB or a RD5 C either.  It's about their vision, which on offense doesn't come off as innovative.  It's safe, and that's a characteristic McD has been since Day 1.    

 

You are totally right that McDermott has a significant input into the vision. I'd even say he is the driver of that, but he and Beane are totally aligned. That is why they work so well together. I'm not the one concluding anything concrete from one video. I have spoken to two guys who have worked for the Bills, one of them is still there. I have asked about their process. 

 

The argument here isn't whether Beane and McDermott are aligned. They unquestionably are. The debate is whether McDermott is telling Beane who to pick because he's a "classic micromanager" and he isn't. Beane runs the draft. Beane makes the picks. The chance of him picking someone that McDermott doesn't like are slim because they are aligned on the vision. But Beane runs personnel. That isn't an opinion. It is the reality. 

[JGMcD2]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The argument here isn't whether Beane and McDermott are aligned. They unquestionably are. The debate is whether McDermott is telling Beane who to pick because he's a "classic micromanager" and he isn't. Beane runs the draft. Beane makes the picks. The chance of him picking someone that McDermott doesn't like are slim because they are aligned on the vision. But Beane runs personnel. That isn't an opinion. It is the reality. 

This is true, unfortunately many here don’t want to understand the reality of how this all works. They have their own idea and stick with it.

 

I equate arguments on this board to arguing with a 5 year old - you’ll never win. Why? Because 5 year olds don’t use logic when they argue. 

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

The argument here isn't whether Beane and McDermott are aligned. They unquestionably are. The debate is whether McDermott is telling Beane who to pick because he's a "classic micromanager" and he isn't. Beane runs the draft. Beane makes the picks. The chance of him picking someone that McDermott doesn't like are slim because they are aligned on the vision. But Beane runs personnel. That isn't an opinion. It is the reality. 

We have debated this for two days now.. 

 

I have never once said that McD is instructing Beane who to pick 

 

You say that Beane makes the picks … I say that Beane is not taking a guy that McD has not ticked the box on … at least not until the last few picks …

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

We have debated this for two days now.. 

 

I have never once said that McD is instructing Beane who to pick 

 

You say that Beane makes the picks … I say that Beane is not taking a guy that McD has not ticked the box on … at least not until the last few picks …

 

 

 

I'm saying that is not how it works. There is no "tick the box" process. There is a higher up alignment so that the GM picks guys that fit what the coaches want but there is no player by player "tick, cross, tick, cross" process that happens beyond guys who they meet with and don't like and take off the board which happens way before Beane is faced with any decisions. 

 

You are insisting on a process that doesn't take place. When the team that holds the #1 pick goes on the clock every player on Brandon Beane's draft board is available to him. Are there a handful of guys every year that are not on the board because they have met with them and don't like them? Yes. But if that is what you are equating to the "tick" or the "cross" then you are saying McDermott has ticked everyone who is on the board and so you are saying he has 100-120 people he has detailed opinions on. 

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm saying that is not how it works. There is no "tick the box" process. There is a higher up alignment so that the GM picks guys that fit what the coaches want but there is no player by player "tick, cross, tick, cross" process that happens beyond guys who they meet with and don't like and take off the board which happens way before Beane is faced with any decisions. 

 

You are insisting on a process that doesn't take place. When the team that holds the #1 pick goes on the clock every player on Brandon Beane's draft board is available to him. Are there a handful of guys every year that are not on the board because they have met with them and don't like them? Yes. But if that is what you are equating to the "tick" or the "cross" then you are saying McDermott has ticked everyone who is on the board and so you are saying he has 100-120 people he has detailed opinions on. 

They talk to each other … all the time .. including prior to the draft about who they are gunna pick 

 

 

[Back2Buff]

I don't like how much power Beane has with the trading of picks.  Seemed like it all ran through him, and not once did he look to analytics guy to see if the deal was a good deal.  Like the KC deal should have never happened, but Beane was so hell bent on getting into the 3rd, the value was terrible for the Bills.

 

Same situation for the Carolina movement.  The difference between a 5th and 6th was not worth losing the 5th year option.  You draft a player thinking that player will make multiple pro bowls, if you don't think that way, don't draft the player.  The money difference between the 5th year option and a contract extension for a guy like Chase is over 10 million.  Any analytic guy could tell you this.  Instead Beane just pulled the trigger on another dumb trade.

 

I also don't think the Bills were after Bishop when trying to move up in the 2nd.  The editing made it seem that way, but I bet they were trying to get up for a different player.  Bishop was drafted right where he was projected and was in a tier of a lot of different safeties, like they felt with WR in the first.  I think the drop off after Keenland for edge rushers was pretty large.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

They talk to each other … all the time .. including prior to the draft about who they are gunna pick 

 

They know who they are going to pick before the draft? Really? Picking at the end of each round?

1 minute ago, Back2Buff said:

I don't like how much power Beane has with the trading of picks.  Seemed like it all ran through him, and not once did he look to analytics guy to see if the deal was a good deal.  Like the KC deal should have never happened, but Beane was so hell bent on getting into the 3rd, the value was terrible for the Bills.

 

Same situation for the Carolina movement.  The difference between a 5th and 6th was not worth losing the 5th year option.  You draft a player thinking that player will make multiple pro bowls, if you don't think that way, don't draft the player.  The money difference between the 5th year option and a contract extension for a guy like Chase is over 10 million.  Any analytic guy could tell you this.  Instead Beane just pulled the trigger on another dumb trade.

 

I also don't think the Bills were after Bishop when trying to move up in the 2nd.  The editing made it seem that way, but I bet they were trying to get up for a different player.  Bishop was drafted right where he was projected and was in a tier of a lot of different safeties, like they felt with WR in the first.  I think the drop off after Keenland for edge rushers was pretty large.

 

The drop off before Kneeland was rather large. He sucks. 

 

Beane did say right after the Bishop pick he was the guy they were trying to get up for and he got lucky that nobody would take his offer because he was about to give picks away unnecessarily. Now that might not have been true, obviously, but I have a tendency to believe him on that. 

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They know who they are going to pick before the draft? Really? Picking at the end of each round?

Do you think McDermott had input on Bishop and Carter who were picked at the end of Round 2 and 3? 
 

Are there other guys  they might have agreed if they get picked beforehand ?

 

 

Edited May 8 by Aussie Joe

[Back2Buff]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The drop off before Kneeland was rather large. He sucks. 

 

Beane did say right after the Bishop pick he was the guy they were trying to get up for and he got lucky that nobody would take his offer because he was about to give picks away unnecessarily. Now that might not have been true, obviously, but I have a tendency to believe him on that. 

 

Agree to disagree on Kneeland.  He is an athlete freak that I think will do really well in the NFL.  He is a 3 down 4-3 DE.  Has the size and arm length you want.

 

Beane says that every year about players.  It's GM talk.  I wouldn't put any stock into it.  Go re-watch the video, when they are talking amongst each other, they never mention who they are after.  Then when they couldn't move up, Pegula is like, so we are taking Bishop?  If that is who they were after in trying to trade up, why would that even be a question.  Beane then has to "defend" Bishop in saying I think he will be a really good kid.  Kind had the vibes of, we didn't the guy we were after, but this will still be a good player.  Brings me back to the Brad Richards, Ville Leino FA BS back in the day.

[NeverOutNick]

13 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

I don't like how much power Beane has with the trading of picks.  Seemed like it all ran through him, and not once did he look to analytics guy to see if the deal was a good deal.  Like the KC deal should have never happened, but Beane was so hell bent on getting into the 3rd, the value was terrible for the Bills.

 

Same situation for the Carolina movement.  The difference between a 5th and 6th was not worth losing the 5th year option.  You draft a player thinking that player will make multiple pro bowls, if you don't think that way, don't draft the player.  The money difference between the 5th year option and a contract extension for a guy like Chase is over 10 million.  Any analytic guy could tell you this.  Instead Beane just pulled the trigger on another dumb trade.

 

I also don't think the Bills were after Bishop when trying to move up in the 2nd.  The editing made it seem that way, but I bet they were trying to get up for a different player.  Bishop was drafted right where he was projected and was in a tier of a lot of different safeties, like they felt with WR in the first.  I think the drop off after Keenland for edge rushers was pretty large.

I agree with you on the bishop angle and also on the Carolina trade. No reason to give up a 5th year option for a 5th round pick. 
 

I don’t agree with you on Beane having too much power. I like that he supposedly controls the room. You need someone decisive in making those trades and the chiefs trade was fine value if his board showed the WRs left were all the same tier. I don’t like that we parlayed that deal into getting a DT that probably would’ve been there in round 4 over an explosive speed WR like Franklin or Walker. The drop off of those type of WRs was drastic and he should’ve pounced there. 

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

Like the KC deal should have never happened, but Beane was so hell bent on getting into the 3rd, the value was terrible for the Bills.

 

By the Rich Hill trade chart the trade was exactly equal. What makes you think it was bad value?

[The Jokeman]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

 

Agree with both of you. I think people are snoozing on this guy. Even that embedded video was brief on him (although McD DID really seem authentically high on the guy). 

I have reservations, I mean Corey Moore lead the NCAA in sacks when we drafted him and like Solomon he was undersized and busted. It doesn't mean Solovan will but there is a reason he fell in the draft and pretty sure it wasn't based on production/attitude or off the field issues....

[HappyDays]

28 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

The difference between a 5th and 6th was not worth losing the 5th year option.

 

The 5th year option is a bargaining chip, it isn't something you make draft decisions around. In fact by the trade value chart the drop off in value from #32 to #33 is slightly LESS than the drop off in value from the adjacent picks just before and after, which signals that GMs see those picks as CLOSER in value. I would guess it's because #33 gets paid about $2.2M less than #32 over the life of their 4 year contract which is not insubstantial.

 

In general you don't give up almost two full rounds (59 picks) of draft value because you're worried about something that doesn't come into play until 2029 when Josh Allen is 33 years old.

[SCBills]

Reading a bit into the sequencing and time spent on draft picks, it looks to me that Coleman, Bishop, Carter, Davis and VPG are all expected to compete for immediate playing time..  Then we got the Terry Pegula "rapid fire" comment and they sped through the picks of Olofoshio, Solomon etc..

 

I don't think Solomon should be counted on as an immediate contributor but mannn I hope his pass rush ability translates.  Having that Bryce Huff type player in this rotation would help.. a lot. 

[NeverOutNick]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The 5th year option is a bargaining chip, it isn't something you make draft decisions around. In fact by the trade value chart the drop off in value from #32 to #33 is slightly LESS than the drop off in value from the adjacent picks just before and after, which signals that GMs see those picks as CLOSER in value. I would guess it's because #33 gets paid about $2.2M less than #32 over the life of their 4 year contract which is not insubstantial.

 

In general you don't give up almost two full rounds (59 picks) of draft value because you're worried about something that doesn't come into play until 2029 when Josh Allen is 33 years old.

That’s a good way to look at it. Just wish he would’ve used and took someone like Bub Means or Ainais Smith with the high 5th rounder instead of trading one of them for a 4th next year. But Beane will be Beane 

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

Go re-watch the video, when they are talking amongst each other, they never mention who they are after.  Then when they couldn't move up, Pegula is like, so we are taking Bishop?

 

Pegula doesn't make the decisions, Beane does. It's pretty obvious Bishop was the guy they were after. They had deals in place to trade down but didn't because their guy was there.

 

I'll criticize Beane for many things but not for being a liar. He shoots straight. There's no reason to lie and act like he loves Bishop any more than he does. If anything it just looks bad on him in the future if Bishop doesn't turn out to be a good player because he openly admitted that he not only drafted the player but tried to trade up for him. Beane if anything is too honest for his own good.

[Back2Buff]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

By the Rich Hill trade chart the trade was exactly equal. What makes you think it was bad value?

 

Exactly, it was even on the trade value chart, which means the Bills shouldn't have done it.  It should have taken a massive overpay to make the trade.

 

There was an analytics guy after the trade that said the net points the Bills got in this trade, was the 4th worst ever.  These draft trades very rarely end up equal.