2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.

[Sierra Foothills]

44 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

They have to work together.  It would make no sense for the GM to draft guys the coach doesn’t like and/or that don’t the system well.   Otherwise you have a Marronne /Whaley situation with the coach yelling out in front of everyone “Get me a freakin’ Quarterback!”

 

Hopefully this doesn't rekindle the debate...

 

There's absolutely no question in my mind that McDermott has definite opinions about SOME of the players in the draft.

 

The question is how many? (this is essentially what we can't agree about)

 

There's zero chance in my mind that McDermott doesn't have a strong opinion about any players the Bills pick in the first 3 rounds. For instance, tell me with a straight face that McDermott doesn't have a very strong opinion about DeWayne Carter.

 

JMO.

 

[FireChans]

34 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Hopefully this doesn't rekindle the debate...

 

There's absolutely no question in my mind that McDermott has definite opinions about SOME of the players in the draft.

 

The question is how many? (this is essentially what we can't agree about)

 

There's zero chance in my mind that McDermott doesn't have a strong opinion about any players the Bills pick in the first 3 rounds. For instance, tell me with a straight face that McDermott doesn't have a very strong opinion about DeWayne Carter.

 

JMO.

 

Again, I will ask. 
 

When did McD have time to personally scout a third round DT prospect? 

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Again, I will ask. 
 

When did McD have time to personally scout a third round DT prospect? 

 

You'll have to ask him and until you do, it's your conjecture vs mine.

 

I'll add that you cannot argue that 1) The Defense is McDermott's Baby and 2) McDermott is a renowned control freak.

 

Believe what you'd like but I'm not here to debate.

 

P.S. - Tre'Davious White was not Doug Whaley's idea.

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

You'll have to ask him and until you do, it's your conjecture vs mine.

 

I'll add that you cannot argue that 1) The Defense is McDermott's Baby and 2) McDermott is a renowned control freak.

 

Believe what you'd like but I'm not here to debate.

 

Believe that McD is either:

 

1. scouting every defensive player we could possibly draft in the first 100 picks

2. Has prescient knowledge about what players will be available when we pick and scouts ONLY them lol

 

There’s conjecture then there’s conjecture lmao

 

Also McD is such a control freak that he had Leslie Frazier call the defensive plays for 4 years and basically has no hand in the offense at all lol

Edited May 12 by FireChans

[Sierra Foothills]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Believe that McD is either:

 

1. scouting every defensive player we could possibly draft in the first 100 picks

2. Has prescient knowledge about what players will be available when we pick and scouts ONLY them lol

 

There’s conjecture then there’s conjecture lmao

 

Yeah, McDermott goes to the Scouting Combine but he has no interest in scouting the players.

 

Got it.

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Yeah, McDermott goes to the Scouting Combine but he has no interest in scouting the players.

 

Got it.

 

He has interest. I thought you weren’t interested in arguing?

[Billy Claude]

12 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

He can't. By now he is probably waving his pom poms, wearing an unusual outfit.

What would the equation be on McDermott's trade of the #10 pick (Mahomes) to KC?

 

Not sure if you were being sarcastic but I was interested in how the trade graded.  Based on the 2024 Hill chart and using GunnerBill's valuing of next year's pick as being in the 16th spot of the next round:

 

Kansas City get #10 = 369 points,   Buffalo gets #27 (216 pts), #91 (44 pts), and 1st RD following year #48 (121 pts) = 381 points  so a +12 in the Bills favor.

 

I was not on the message board but I don't remember any of the talking heads saying if was a bad deal for the Bills at the time. Even two years ago, most Bills fans would do the trade again if given the opportunity.  Those criticizing the trade 7 years after the fact are being nonsensical.

 

 

Edited May 12 by Billy Claude

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Kansas City get #10 = 369 points,   Buffalo gets #27 (216 pts), #91 (44 pts), and 1st RD following year #48 (121 pts) = 381 points  so a +12 in the Bills favor.

 

I was not on the message board but I don't remember any of the talking heads saying if was a bad deal for the Bills at the time. Even two years ago, most Bills fans would do the trade again if given the opportunity.  Those criticizing the trade 7 years after the fact are being nonsensical.

 

 

Here is what seems to be the most accepted formula. Google it and see for yourself how often this formula comes up.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/5/8/5683486/nfl-draft-trade-value-chart

 

This chart doesn't list the value of the following year's picks but it does list the Bills #10 at 1,300 for a return of 786 (for picks 27 and 91).  Even if the 2018 pick closed the gap somewhat, does the fact that the Bills were in desperate need for a quarterback escape you? The following is the 2017 Bills roster. It lists 3 QBs:

1) Tyrod Taylor

2) Nate Peterman

3) Joe Webb

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2017_roster.htm

Does this appear to you to be a team that needed a cornerback more than a quarterback? If so, please help me understand your conclusion. Do ya think that KC Fans dislike ther fact that McDermott  handed them a certain HOF QB, one of the best ever?  Really, try to be serious.

 

You may see those of us who think this was an almost indescribably stupid deal as being "nonsensical.  Frankly I find this comment to be rude and presumptous but that's just me. Am I happy with Josh? Very happy!!!! We are extremely lucky that he fell to us, unless of course you think that McDermott planned this at the time of the trade.

 

In any case, welcome to TSW.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 12 by Bill from NYC

[Billy Claude]

18 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Here is what seems to be the most accepted formula. Google it and see for yourself how often this formula comes up.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/5/8/5683486/nfl-draft-trade-value-chart

 

This chart doesn't list the value of the following year's picks but it does list the Bills #10 at 1,300 for a return of 786 (for picks 27 and 91).  Even if the 2018 pick closed the gap somewhat, does the fact that the Bills were in desperate need for a quarterback escape you? The following is the 2017 Bills roster. It lists 3 QBs:

1) Tyrod Taylor

2) Nate Peterman

3) Joe Webb

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2017_roster.htm

Does this appear to you to be a team that needed a cornerback more than a quarterback? If so, please help me understand your conclusion. Do ya think that KC Fans dislike ther fact that McDermott  handed them a certain HOF QB, one of the best ever?  Really, try to be serious.

 

You may see those of us who think this was an almost indescribably stupid deal as being "nonsensical.  Frankly I find this comment to be rude and presumptous but that's just me. Am I happy with Josh? Very happy!!!! We are extremely lucky that he fell to us, unless of course you think that McDermott planned this at the time of the trade.

 

In any case, welcome to TSW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously this is an very inexact art and different trade charts will give different conclusions.  I used the Hill chart because someone had mentioned it as highly respected.

 

My point was that almost no one complained about this trade two years ago and now, seven years after the fact, suddenly they are.  That is what I find nonsensical, not the point value according to one chart or another.

 

Edited May 12 by Billy Claude

[Matt_In_NH]

Interesting Beane said he would stick and pick Coleman unless someone knocked his socks off.  Yet one pick earlier he took a typical deal to swap with the Panthers.  To me this says he had Legette and Coleman rated about the same and since the Panthers grabbed one of them, he took the other.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Do ya think that KC Fans dislike ther fact that McDermott  handed them a certain HOF QB, one of the best ever? 

The outcome of the trade is super one sided to KC, only some Bills fans would argue otherwise.  However, to this part of you post, I would say they handed KC a prospect not a HOF QB.   If the Bills traded Josh Allen in this past years draft for someone else's one that would be what you describe.  Mahomes was not a surefire prospect.  You are  playing hindsight, you have to judge the trade based on what information was available at the time it happened.  Analogous to two poker players going all in preflop, one with 7-8 suited and one with a pair of aces.  A straight comes up for the guy with 7-8, that does not make that a good preflop decision. 

[Bill from NYC]

58 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The outcome of the trade is super one sided to KC, only some Bills fans would argue otherwise.  However, to this part of you post, I would say they handed KC a prospect not a HOF QB.   If the Bills traded Josh Allen in this past years draft for someone else's one that would be what you describe.  Mahomes was not a surefire prospect.  You are  playing hindsight, you have to judge the trade based on what information was available at the time it happened.  Analogous to two poker players going all in preflop, one with 7-8 suited and one with a pair of aces.  A straight comes up for the guy with 7-8, that does not make that a good preflop decision. 

Matt, I do get your point. But what (at least imo) HAS to be factored in was that we needed a quarterback desperately. We had been seriously lacking at that position since Kelly retired, unless you want to count Bledsoe for one half season. You saw the list above of the QBs on our roster in 2017. We needed a QB far more than a cornerback. 

People can make the case that other teams passed on Mahomes and this is true. Still, it was up to a well paid McDermott to recognize Mahomes' talent. Some of the posters on this board were furious. In subsequent drafts, McDermott continued to go after defensive players with early picks, twice even trading up in round one for them, and also drafting a DT at #9. 

Again, I am more than happy with Josh Allen. He is one of my all time favorite players but this isn't the point that I'm tryimg to make. I am simply making the case that this was an ill advised trade.

 

Edited May 12 by Bill from NYC

[Matt_In_NH]

59 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Matt, I do get your point. But what (at least imo) HAS to be factored in was that we needed a quarterback desperately. We had been seriously lacking at that position since Kelly retired, unless you want to count Bledsoe for one half season. You saw the list above of the QBs on our roster in 2017. We needed a QB far more than a cornerback. 

People can make the case that other teams passed on Mahomes and this is true. Still, it was up to a well paid McDermott to recognize Mahomes' talent. Some of the posters on this board were furious. In subsequent drafts, McDermott continued to go after defensive players with early picks, twice even trading up in round one for them, and also drafting a DT at #9. 

Again, I am more than happy with Josh Allen. He is one of my all time favorite players but this isn't the point that I'm tryimg to make. I am simply making the case that this was an ill advised trade.

 

I also understand your point and you are correct the Bills needed a QB, that is true.  Right or wrong, it was not just McDermott's draft, the GM (Whaley) and his staff knew they were getting canned after the draft and the organization's plan was to let the new GM make the QB decision.  I get the impression you don't like McDermott but he is the coach, not the GM, I don't think it is reasonable to criticize him in this case.  Rumor was that Pegula loved Mahomes, no clue how the GM and personal staff had it ranked, it seemed like they were just not going to draft a QB.  I get some on this board were furious, there were also some furious for drafting the "wrong Josh" and every other decision this team has ever made.

[NickelCity]

On 5/8/2024 at 4:41 AM, NeverOutNick said:

Bishop was all about his former teammate Kincaid. Feel like every other sentence was something about “Dalton” lol.

 

I only watched it once, but my take was that it was the Bills who were pushing the Dalton angle over and over again. Was over the top lol.

[BobbyC81]

8 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I also understand your point and you are correct the Bills needed a QB, that is true.  Right or wrong, it was not just McDermott's draft, the GM (Whaley) and his staff knew they were getting canned after the draft and the organization's plan was to let the new GM make the QB decision.  I get the impression you don't like McDermott but he is the coach, not the GM, I don't think it is reasonable to criticize him in this case.  Rumor was that Pegula loved Mahomes, no clue how the GM and personal staff had it ranked, it seemed like they were just not going to draft a QB.  I get some on this board were furious, there were also some furious for drafting the "wrong Josh" and every other decision this team has ever made.

Yeah, I admit I was a “wrong Josh” evaluator.  It’s real funny to look back now, especially with Rosen claiming the picks ahead of him at 10 were “9 mistakes”. Seven of the 9 have been Pro Bowlers.   Mr Rosen, where art thou?

[Ralonzo]

13 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Analogous to two poker players going all in preflop, one with 7-8 suited and one with a pair of aces.  A straight comes up for the guy with 7-8, that does not make that a good preflop decision. 

 

It was fine for KC because the Bills run like Hellmuth.

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

On 5/7/2024 at 9:20 PM, Dr Krentist said:

 

If I heard correctly, he had the most sacks last year. Why did he drop to the 5th round?

 

Troy isn't Alabama. (Wait... Actually it is in Alabama.)

[PromoTheRobot]

23 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The outcome of the trade is super one sided to KC, only some Bills fans would argue otherwise.  However, to this part of you post, I would say they handed KC a prospect not a HOF QB.   If the Bills traded Josh Allen in this past years draft for someone else's one that would be what you describe.  Mahomes was not a surefire prospect.  You are  playing hindsight, you have to judge the trade based on what information was available at the time it happened.  Analogous to two poker players going all in preflop, one with 7-8 suited and one with a pair of aces.  A straight comes up for the guy with 7-8, that does not make that a good preflop decision. 

 

You know who was the surefire QB prospect in the 2017 draft? Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears even traded up one spot to make sure they got him. 👍

[Matt_In_NH]

On 5/7/2024 at 9:20 PM, Dr Krentist said:

 

If I heard correctly, he had the most sacks last year. Why did he drop to the 5th round?

Because most sacks in college does not just translate to the NFL.  The competition matters...a lot.   Evaluation takes hundreds of factor into account, one of which is production.  Lots of other physical traits, performance in standardized testing, interviews etc.

[GASabresIUFan]

Instead of starting a new thread I thought I’d add some thoughts from TBN’s interview with Bills Exec Torrence Gray as it seems like a nice complimentary to the embedded video.  https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-terrance-gray-brandon-beane/article_63b36b42-0c6b-11ef-bf81-63b40f6a2aa7.html
 

Really insightful info in the article.  I received a real feel for the Bills process in general and what specifically they were looking for in this draft.  It’s pretty clear they were looking to fill needs with veteran college players ready to contribute now.  Carter, Van Pran, Davis, Solomon, and Ulofoshio all played 40+ college games. The Senior Bowl (and East West game to a lesser extent) practices and interviews were huge factors on who Beane drafted.  The Bills attended the pro-days for all 10 draftees, but only Coleman had a private workout and a top 30 interview.  Most of the guys had leadership roles on their respective college teams.  Work ethic (or “want to”) was a major factor; aka guys who want to get better.  Gray pointed out how Ulofoshio started as a walk on and earned a scholarship.  They also have a special process of special teams guys like kick returners.  They also looked for special athletes on their late round OL.  Grable started as a 230 lbs QB.  
 

After reading the article, I really like all the picks.  I know most won’t pan out long-term for a variety of reasons, but it won’t be for a lack of trying.  
 

I’ve been a Bills fan all my life. The first game I attended as a little kid was 1969, but for some reason this particular off-season has really elevated my interest in the team.  Maybe it’s my curiosity on how Beane was going to get the team out of cap hell (which he created), while somehow making the team younger and better.  Outside of safety (I’ll feel better if Bishop bests out Rapp or Edwards), I think he has actually accomplished those goals.  I’ve been wanting Beane to invest in receivers for years and he has finally done it with Kincaid and Coleman.