2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.

[FireChans]

Just now, TPS said:

It was.  I had someone confirm what most thought anyway, he would've moved up a few spots to get him had he slipped past Jax.

There goes the “Coleman was their pick all along” take lol

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, benderbender said:

He just isn't wearing his used car salesman uniform. Remember when he had the entire NFL believing he was all in for Breece Hall? That we were trading up for a top 3 WR? When he said Diggs wasn't going anywhere? He's slicker than alligator poop on a bald-tired semi on a mile of wet asphalt. The proof is that you think he's an honest guy. He could tell you you're laid off and you'd thank him for letting you pack up your desk.  He could convince you that you could out pizza the hut! 

 

There's a difference in being coy about your future plans and lying about past results. Beane shoots straight when he talks about what he's done and why he's done it. Like I said there's no reason to lie about wanting Bishop. It doesn't make him look any better or worse in the moment, it only sets him up to look better or worse depending on how the player turns out.

[NeverOutNick]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know I thought that trade was a no brainer at the time. 5th round is where all the draftniks said the value of this draft class fell off a cliff. We got back a free mid to high 4th round pick next year, I can't argue with that. I'm as annoyed as anyone that we didn't take two WRs in this draft but I don't think that trade is what prevented it. In the later rounds they were drafting guys that they were confident could make the team (or would not be poached by another team at final cutdowns), and for whatever reason they don't think a late round WR has a shot of beating out... Mack Hollins..... I don't get it but that's what they told us with their actions.

It told me they really feel highly in Hamler and Isabella because there were a lot of guys that fit their mold of taking the top off and they passed. They may have thought KR/speedster WRs like Ainais Smith and Malik Washington would be there for them later but I would’ve passed on drafting another LBer (ulo) in the 5th and taken one of them to compete with Hamler and Isabella. It was just such a deep WR class that it sucks we only got 1 and then loaded up on a bunch of never-weres in free agency. Hope it works out

[FireChans]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

About what?

 

You are arguing the same point I am

No I’m not. 
 

Beane and McD worked together at Carolina. Beane knows what traits and skills McD likes and what player profiles he prefers. He may even consult with McD on certain positions or players. But Beane makes the picks. 
 

I’m not sure what other input you could possibly think he has. There are hundreds of prospects. McD ain’t watching film on all of them and making his board. Do you think Beane pulled up Bishop film while we are the clock to get McD’s approval?

 

The sole responsibility of the draft is on Beane. 
 

the only draft that McD had final say on was 2017 and it was probably the best or second best draft we’ve had in a decade.

[TPS]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There goes the “Coleman was their pick all along” take lol

If all along means after Thomas went, yes.  😎

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There's a difference in being coy about your future plans and lying about past results. Beane shoots straight when he talks about what he's done and why he's done it. Like I said there's no reason to lie about wanting Bishop. It doesn't make him look any better or worse in the moment, it only sets him up to look better or worse depending on how the player turns out.

Does this mean that you believe the “he was our last first round prospect” line that BB trotted out for like 3 years.

[Andrew Son]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Does this mean that you believe the “he was our last first round prospect” line that BB trotted out for like 3 years.

Did he say that this year?  If so I missed it.

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

No I’m not. 
 

Beane and McD worked together at Carolina. Beane knows what traits and skills McD likes and what player profiles he prefers. He may even consult with McD on certain positions or players. But Beane makes the picks. 
 

I’m not sure what other input you could possibly think he has. There are hundreds of prospects. McD ain’t watching film on all of them and making his board. Do you think Beane pulled up Bishop film while we are the clock to get McD’s approval?

 

The sole responsibility of the draft is on Beane. 
 

the only draft that McD had final say on was 2017 and it was probably the best or second best draft we’ve had in a decade.

Well… if I need to repeat myself again…

 

Im saying the specific draft picks they are taking are as a result of a collaboration between the two,,, probably spent over a lot of hours in the weeks leading up to the draft discussing dozens of prospects ..

 

When it comes to the guys they have selected … Beane knows exactly what McD thinks of the guy before the pick is made ….he is not taking a guy that MCDermott dislikes …

 

Now ..maybe this doesn’t apply to the guys at the end of the draft … but it sure as hell does on the first 5 picks 

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Did he say that this year?  If so I missed it.

Not this year. Probably didn’t think it would be accepted after a trade out of the first round lol

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Well… if I need to repeat myself again…

 

Im saying the specific draft picks they are taking are as a result of a collaboration between the two,,, probably spent over a lot of hours in the weeks leading up to the draft discussing dozens of prospects ..

 

When it comes to the guys they have selected … Beane knows exactly what McD thinks of the guy before the pick is made ….he is not taking a guy that MCDermott dislikes …

 

Now ..maybe this doesn’t apply to the guys at the end of the draft … but it sure as hell does on the first 5 picks 

 

Dude, the first 5 picks is 141 players. 
 

We didn’t even have a third rounder until draft night. Do you think McD didn’t sleep after round 1 and watched HOURS of film of players in a round they didn’t even expect to have a pick in?

 

I think what you fail to understand is how much time this stuff takes at a professional level. There’s a reason there’s a bunch of other scouts and football executives. They are not all getting coffee while McD reviews the film of 141 college players. 

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not this year. Probably didn’t think it would be accepted after a trade out of the first round lol

Dude, the first 5 picks is 141 players. 
 

We didn’t even have a third rounder until draft night. Do you think McD didn’t sleep after round 1 and watched HOURS of film of players in a round they didn’t even expect to have a pick in?

 

I think what you fail to understand is how much time this stuff takes at a professional level. There’s a reason there’s a bunch of other scouts and football executives. They are not all getting coffee while McD reviews the film of 141 college players. 

I’ve already argued this … go back a page or two …

 

 

[Back2Buff]

38 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Uh, yes? We extended him before his 5th year option officially kicked in. Maybe it gave us an extra two months to negotiate, but that's all.

 

Like I said, it's a bargaining chip. The same effect can be had by using the franchise tag if you really need it. The 5th year option is most useful for players like Edmunds or Rousseau where you're not quite sure what you have and you want that one extra year of tape to see if they're worth extending.

 

 

No, they did it for the same reason Minnesota swapped one pick with NY at #10 - they got scared we would trade back with someone else (likely aided by a bit of salesmanship from Beane) and they would lose out on getting their guy. This happens all the time.

 

Again, look at the trade value chart. #31 to #32 is -6 points. #32 to #33 is -4 points. #33 to #34 is -5 points. Teams are telling you that the 5th year option is worth less than the drop off in total contract value.

 

What are you talking about?  Oliver would have been a UFA.  He would have been negotiating with 31 other teams come March.

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Does this mean that you believe the “he was our last first round prospect” line that BB trotted out for like 3 years.

 

When he trades up a couple spots yes I believe him. I don't remember him saying that about Rousseau for example, or over selling the Coleman pick as someone they were specifically targeting. One thing Beane always has been steadfast on is that he follows his board. I know that's true just based on his actions. If his last player in a certain tier is still hanging around he will try to trade up slightly for them (Elam, Kincaid, attempting to trade up for Bishop). If he has several players at equal value in that tier he will stick and pick. If that tier is wiped out on his board he will try to trade down.

[JerseyBills]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think Coleman was "our guy" but he was definitely one of a cluster of guys that we had graded as high 2nd rounders. For all the talk of the WR class there were only four that were seen as consensus 1st rounders. I always thought trading back into the 2nd and recouping a 3rd in the process, then taking the best WR available, was the best possible outcome.

 

If there's anything to take away from this Embedded video it's that GMs including Beane don't have a strict vertical board they're following where they're just ticking off names one after the other and taking the absolute BPA when it's their turn. They are grouping guys into tiers and taking someone from their Best Available Tier (BAT?) who also fills a need.

Valid points, in this particular situation , the fact Worhy Legette Coleman all have such different skill sets/body types , I doubt a 3rd rder would make Beane not get the WR he wanted

 

I agree on the groupings  and these 3 were in that 2nd tier of WRs but I just think he coveted Coleman. I mean I doubt a 3rd would take him away from picking Worthy if Beane wanted him, assuming he was assured which WR KC and Car were picking. I mean they add such a different dimension to the O.

But I agree with this thinking in maybe rd 3 or 4 on 

[TPS]

Another little interesting (confirmational) comment, on their draft board they write names in Buffalo Bills Blue for players who have that so-called Bills DNA, the leadership and moral values. There were around 25 on this board; and about half of their picks were Blue names (I'd guess the first 3 picks were part of this group).

[Process]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is not what Head Coaches do between the season and the draft. By the time they have got through exit interviews, staff changes, self scouting, deciding on schematic changes, engaging with the FO on sign / re-sign decisions, prepared their programme for OTAs and mini-camps..... they really do not have time to sit there doing the GM's job as well. 

 

He actually rarely attends the Senior Bowl these days actually. I'm not 100% sure but I think the last time he went was 2019. He does the Combine interviews and he no doubt meets people on top 30 visits and you are right those do affect the final board. But if a guy has a line through him after that he is off the board. So there wouldn't need to then a discussion on draft night where he tells Beane not to draft him. 

 

Everyone who is on the board is available for Brandon Beane to draft. And he decides which ones to pick. That is just the way it works. 

 

You are totally right that McDermott has a significant input into the vision. I'd even say he is the driver of that, but he and Beane are totally aligned. That is why they work so well together. I'm not the one concluding anything concrete from one video. I have spoken to two guys who have worked for the Bills, one of them is still there. I have asked about their process. 

 

The argument here isn't whether Beane and McDermott are aligned. They unquestionably are. The debate is whether McDermott is telling Beane who to pick because he's a "classic micromanager" and he isn't. Beane runs the draft. Beane makes the picks. The chance of him picking someone that McDermott doesn't like are slim because they are aligned on the vision. But Beane runs personnel. That isn't an opinion. It is the reality. 

What's your background? Just curious how a fan from Europe has connections with people that work for the Bills. 

 

I'm not doubting you at all, genuinely curious and find it interesting. Are you from the area? Have you worked in the sports industry? I know you get really involved in the draft process, it seems like you have been involved in scouting in the past. 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

What are you talking about?  Oliver would have been a UFA.  He would have been negotiating with 31 other teams come March.

 

Yes like I said the 5th year option gave us an extra two months to negotiate with him or finagle the minor details. You're saying without that the deal would have just totally fallen through? It's not like we gave him a record breaking extension that required weeks of sleepless nights. I would guess the terms were mostly set a few months before the agreement was officially reached.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’ve already argued this … go back a page or two …

 

 

Yeah you argued it poorly. You said 50-60, now you’re saying the first 5 picks which ended up being 141 players. 

 

So which is it? 
 

even if you still say 60, do you think McD has secret knowledge of the draft order? You say “he probably doesn’t waste time with Joe Alt,” but he doesn’t know if Cooper DeJean goes in the first or falls until the second. He doesn’t know if BTJ falls or doesn’t. So he would need to also scout those players right? And he doesn’t know we have a third rounder until draft night, so when does he scout those players? 
 

Also, what makes you think that McD has such a high opinion of himself and his ability to scout WR that he would want to scout a WR personally and sign off or veto a WR draft pick? This is the guy who is notoriously hands off the offense except for vague “run the ball” comments. Now all of the sudden he’s breaking down how fast Keon Coleman gets out of his break? 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

Do you think McDermott had input on Bishop and Carter who were picked at the end of Round 2 and 3? 
 

Are there other guys  they might have agreed if they get picked beforehand ?

 

Not beyond the broad agreed vision for building the team. On the picks specifically? No. I think Beane made them, because that's his job. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not beyond the broad agreed vision for building the team. On the picks specifically? No. I think Beane made them, because that's his job. 

The next fascist government should hire the Bills PR team. They are doing an incredible job editing out all the footage of McD reviewing his personal draft board and making the selections himself while Pegula and Beane get him coffee. 

[Aussie Joe]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah you argued it poorly. You said 50-60, now you’re saying the first 5 picks which ended up being 141 players. 

 

So which is it? 
 

even if you still say 60, do you think McD has secret knowledge of the draft order? You say “he probably doesn’t waste time with Joe Alt,” but he doesn’t know if Cooper DeJean goes in the first or falls until the second. He doesn’t know if BTJ falls or doesn’t. So he would need to also scout those players right? And he doesn’t know we have a third rounder until draft night, so when does he scout those players? 
 

Also, what makes you think that McD has such a high opinion of himself and his ability to scout WR that he would want to scout a WR personally and sign off or veto a WR draft pick? This is the guy who is notoriously hands off the offense except for vague “run the ball” comments. Now all of the sudden he’s breaking down how fast Keon Coleman gets out of his break? 

Do you think they have every player on their board ?

 
It could be  between 80-120 odd…

Does he need to have in depth knowledge of all the guys on their board ? 

 

 

Edited May 8 by Aussie Joe