2025 Compensatory picks

[Watkins101]

17 hours ago, sunshynman said:

I bet that is why they never reveal the rules for the picks. It allows them to mess around with them and leak some crap like playing time matters. They ought to dish out the picks biased purely on record. Worst team gets the best pick. Every team over 500 nothing. 

Isn’t that just how the draft works already? Why even do Comp picks at that point.

[Brand J]

15 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

While I doubt we get those two picks, it would nice if we did. Next year, we are going to have another short roster pre-draft and we are probably going to have room for most of those picks. We are probably going to make small trade ups because it seems we usually do this for good or bad.

Maybe we can get another WR with a higher pick next season as well…. Perhaps the second safety. It could be OL or DL as well…

We will have a lot of needs again…

We’ve certainly had a haul this draft and the next and depending on the amount of hits, those signature Brandon Beane 1 year player contracts will greatly diminish. I don’t see a ton of needs where young players could contribute, but that’s assuming half the players we drafted this year amount to at least “good.” I like how the Bills are positioned going forward.

[juno999]

16 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Somebody correct me if I’m wrong but that means that our 2025 picks are:

 

1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7

 

Whew, doggy. Beane is killing it.

The Bills currently have 8 picks before compensatory picks.

1st, 2nd, 2nd (Hou -Diggs), 3rd, 4th, 4th (Chi - trade pick), 6th, 6th (Giants - Basham).  They currently don't have a 5th and 7th.  

[vtnatefootball11]

16 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Unless they do another change or Floyd or Davis miss an extended period of time next year - we'll get those picks.

 

We didn't get the 3rd for two reasons. 1.) They on a whim decided to change the formula and incorporate things like void year money instead of just the strict cap number it was before - choosing to do it retroactively instead of going forward and 2.) Edmunds missed some time.

 

Beane said they were talking to the league all year and they told him he was getting a 3rd, until they randomly decided to change the qualifications at the buzzer. I don't think they're going to do that again this year.

 

 

It is wrong. Our picks are as follows:

 

1

2 (from Minnesota via Houston for Diggs)

2

3

4

4 (from Green Bay for a 2024 5th)

4 (Compensation for Davis)

5 (Compensation for Floyd)

6

6 (from NYG for Basham and our 2025 7th)

 

Our 5th was traded to Houston as part of the Diggs trade. 

 

Isn't our extra 4th from Chicago (rather than GB)?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Unless they do another change or Floyd or Davis miss an extended period of time next year - we'll get those picks.

 

We didn't get the 3rd for two reasons. 1.) They on a whim decided to change the formula and incorporate things like void year money instead of just the strict cap number it was before - choosing to do it retroactively instead of going forward and 2.) Edmunds missed some time.

 

Beane said they were talking to the league all year and they told him he was getting a 3rd, until they randomly decided to change the qualifications at the buzzer. I don't think they're going to do that again this year.

 

 

It is wrong. Our picks are as follows:

 

1

2 (from Minnesota via Houston for Diggs)

2

3

4

4 (from Green Bay for a 2024 5th)

4 (Compensation for Davis)

5 (Compensation for Floyd)

6

6 (from NYG for Basham and our 2025 7th)

 

Our 5th was traded to Houston as part of the Diggs trade. 

 

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula - I agree that the NFL is right to not use a formula that uses cap number alone as that isn't the only thing tied to compensation.  Void years allow you to pay a player a higher salary but lessen cap burden - but the average per year should remain the same if that's what you are measuring players against.  The highest APY point value is the highest paid player, and the lowest APY point value is the lowest.  

 

Buffalo also lost their 3rd because jessie bates made 2nd team all-pro (honors category).  This additional 20 points put him at 1878 points, which was 13 points higher than Edmunds.  Bates was originally listed as a 4th round player that cancelled out with Orlando Brown.  Orlando Browns 4th round value cannot cancel out a 3rd round player (unless they don't carry a net player loss), so Brown instead cancelled out Vonn Bell in the 6th. 

 

Looking at 2025, the only likely way we'd lose a pick is if hollins jumps into that cutoff (or settle falls behind it, or both).  Hollins is ranked at 671 and is right next to the cutoff of 670, but he'd need to exceed his 45% snaps from 2023 in order to raise the 1281 point total.  Other players in that range can do the same though - it isn't just tied to compensatory qualifying players.  Settle falling out is probably less likely - he'd need to play fewer than 30% of snaps to lower his point total.  Even at 0 snaps he's still 1284 which is above Hollins.  

 

Of all the free agents:

• Davis is a 4th, and 11 points clear of cutoff.  He played 72% of snaps last year and barring major injury that seems likely again with ridley and zay jones departing and him and BTJ replacing.  As long as buffalo remains a net loss, they will get a 4th for Davis.
• Leonard floyd is a 5th.  Decreased snap counts likely don't bump him out.  
• Curtis samuel would need to increase snaps considerably to jump into 5th round territory.  If he jumps into 5, the 2nd comp pick becomes a 6 for Dane Jackson.  
• Dane is very low on the 6th round chart, but he's a projected starter so i'd assume he sticks
• Dodson has a potential to jump into 6th if he starts.  
• Johnson could maybe jump into 6.  
• Edwards is barely in the cuttoff, as is settle.  

All this to say - i would say the 5th is at risk, but it would require either Samuel jumping into the 5th and moving the pick to the 6th.  Or Hollins jumping in as a 4th CFA gained and we'd lose the lowest pick we had.  I would say having 6 picks through round 4 is plenty anyway tbh.  

Edited May 7 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[dave mcbride]

How are they getting a fourth for 3 years / $39 million when Edmunds's contract was vastly larger than that (four years / $72 million)? Plus Samuel is 3 years / $24 million. That'll offset Davis somewhat. I'm expecting a fifth at best for Davis.

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

How are they getting a fourth for 3 years / $39 million when Edmunds's contract was vastly larger than that (four years / $72 million)? Plus Samuel is 3 years / $24 million. That'll offset Davis somewhat. I'm expecting a fifth at best for Davis.

 

 

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

 

 

4th round comp picks are currently in a range between about 21M and 11.5.  

 

[K-9]

Perhaps we should never sign free agents so that we can avoid giving them too much playing time and jeopardizing that all important compensatory draft pick. 

[dave mcbride]

48 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Perhaps we should never sign free agents so that we can avoid giving them too much playing time and jeopardizing that all important compensatory draft pick. 

Ha! My thinking exactly. That should never guide decision-making. 

[dave mcbride]

55 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

 

 

4th round comp picks are currently in a range between about 21M and 11.5.  

 

I'll believe it when I see it. Has OTC calculated the effect of the cap increase over last year, which was very substantial (a 13.6 percent increase)? Factoring that in, Davis's AAV would have been $11.4 million last year, which is 63.6 percent of what Edmunds got (and with one less year). Even factoring in a void year for Edmunds (btw, do we know if Davis has a void year in his Jax contract?) his cap-adjusted AAV is only 79 percent of what Edmunds's AAV is assuming a (phantom) five-year deal for Edmunds.   

 

Anyway, I ain't counting on it.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Has OTC calculated the effect of the cap increase over last year, which was very substantial (a 13.6 percent increase)? Factoring that in, Davis's AAV would have been $11.4 million last year, which is 63.6 percent of what Edmunds got (and with one less year). Even factoring in a void year for Edmunds (btw, do we know if Davis has a void year in his Jax contract?) his cap-adjusted AAV is only 79 percent of what Edmunds's AAV is assuming a (phantom) five-year deal for Edmunds.   

 

Anyway, I ain't counting on it.

 

It doesn't have anything to do with the cap actually.  Just average per year - the highest APY is the highest point total.  You then factor in snap% and any awards. 

 

The Salary cap exists as a tool to ensure a revenue share - the cap rises with corresponding revenue to ensure that the players total split is taken into account. As players make more money every year on new deals, the existing player contracts point total decreases because now other players make more money than the year prior. 

 

Void years don't count in the formula as there is no salary on the books for that year so it is essentially just dead cap.  If you wanted void years to count as a contracted year, then in my opinion they wouldn't be eligible for comp picks in the same way a released player doesn't count.  

Edited May 7 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[dave mcbride]

45 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

It doesn't have anything to do with the cap actually.  Just average per year - the highest APY is the highest point total.  You then factor in snap% and any awards. 

 

The Salary cap exists as a tool to ensure a revenue share - the cap rises with corresponding revenue to ensure that the players total split is taken into account. As players make more money every year on new deals, the existing player contracts point total decreases because now other players make more money than the year prior. 

 

Void years don't count in the formula as there is no salary on the books for that year so it is essentially just dead cap.  If you wanted void years to count as a contracted year, then in my opinion they wouldn't be eligible for comp picks in the same way a released player doesn't count.  

My understanding is that Edmunds's void year(s) were the reason why it dropped from a third to a fourth. Bean said as much: https://sports.yahoo.com/brandon-beane-bills-got-raw-105923422.html.

[foreboding]

On 5/6/2024 at 3:13 PM, Logic said:

One interesting thing I read today is that, because of the way compensatory picks are calculated, the Bills may want to limit the snaps of Mike Edwards and Mack Hollins this year, because if they exceed a certain amount, it jeopardizes the two picks the Bills are scheduled to receive.

Similarly, to ensure the best chance at receiving the picks they think they'll be getting, the Bills have to hope that Tim Settle plays a lot of snaps for Houston -- but Houston is surely aware of this, too, and may limit Settle's snaps for their own compensatory pick reasons.

Just a fascinating aspect of the minutiae that goes into calculating compensatory picks. I have no idea whether or not the Bills care enough to actually limit Edwards and Hollin's snaps. To be honest, I bet they do.

Not for a 5th or a 6th round pick...

[Don Otreply]

Compensatory picks are just another of the many over hyped  sideshows that make up the NFL, 

Edited May 7 by Don Otreply

[BillsFanForever19]

9 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Isn't our extra 4th from Chicago (rather than GB)?

 

Correct, thank you. I confused the 5th Round trade down we did with Green Bay this year with the deal for Chicago's pick next year. I've since updated the post.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

My understanding is that Edmunds's void year(s) were the reason why it dropped from a third to a fourth. Bean said as much: https://sports.yahoo.com/brandon-beane-bills-got-raw-105923422.html.

 

Could be they changed it.  I think including void years to lower a cap hit is fine, but in the context of a comp pick discussion i'd almost have to eliminate them.  How do you calculate an APY including void years IE Leonard Floyd.  Either you don't get the comp pick because you "cut him" and have dead cap on your books, or you get the comp pick, but his APY is calculated as a 1 year deal at the full value.  

 

I do know the bengals moving into the 3rd was because of bates making all-pro.  There are a few other reasons that edmunds could've moved from 3rd to 4th beyond his playing time.  They also moved the player 3rd round cut-off up i believe when factoring in the coaching hire 3rd round picks.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Compensatory picks are just another of the many over hyped  sideshows that make up the NFL, 

 

Yup - Try and get one or two if you have player turnover, but it basically means you aren't extending players coming off rookie deals.  So in most likely scenarios, you are up against the cap.  4 and 5 isn't terrible, but I think buffalo probably only "needs" 1 of those picks.  

 

If they get the 4th round comp pick, that'd give them 7 picks in the first 135.  There will be more roster turnover, but that really gives you a great opportunity to add depth to positions that likely need it.

 

Going into next season I'd see some level of:

 

WR - I don't know how everything works out here, but i think they'll add to the room again next season

TE2 - Knox is a cap casualty candidate.  Could be had a bit later as well.  

OL - Have added C and G.  Depends what happens with Spencer Brown and FA, but i could see a tackle being in here as well as another guard.  

DL - Desperately need a pass rusher.  1T could also be a target. 

DB - Corner, Safety

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yup - Try and get one or two if you have player turnover, but it basically means you aren't extending players coming off rookie deals.  So in most likely scenarios, you are up against the cap.  4 and 5 isn't terrible, but I think buffalo probably only "needs" 1 of those picks.  

 

If they get the 4th round comp pick, that'd give them 7 picks in the first 135.  There will be more roster turnover, but that really gives you a great opportunity to add depth to positions that likely need it.

 

Going into next season I'd see some level of:

 

WR - I don't know how everything works out here, but i think they'll add to the room again next season

TE2 - Knox is a cap casualty candidate.  Could be had a bit later as well.  

OL - Have added C and G.  Depends what happens with Spencer Brown and FA, but i could see a tackle being in here as well as another guard.  

DL - Desperately need a pass rusher.  1T could also be a target. 

DB - Corner, Safety

DE/Edge (and defense more generally) is apparently supposed to be deep next year. Walter Football's way-too-early mock has 8 Edge players and 5 DTs going in the first round: https://walterfootball.com/draft2025.php. I sort of expect them to go DE.

Edited May 8 by dave mcbride

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

DE/Edge (and defense more generally) is apparently supposed to be deep next year. Walter Football's way-too-early mock has 8 Edge players and 5 DTs going in the first round: https://walterfootball.com/draft2025.php. I sort of expect them to go DE.

 

Perhaps a double dip, definitely expect one (probably early).  Depends on free agency though.  I'd imagine with just Epenesa, and Groot (pending extension) with everyone else expiring or a cap cut (miller).  

 

I think its key that they use their top 3 picks at premium positions like CB, DE, WR in some order. 

[Mr. WEO]

who's the greatest Bills comp pick to wear #14?