Pick Your Poison: What's Left at Outside WR in Free Agency

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Is this really the feeling around here? That we make a trade or do nothing at all? 

 

If he can't get a deal done or doesn't want to pay the price it would cost - you'd prefer Hollins and Shorter or Hollins and Claypool on the Outside to start the year over guys like Thomas, MVS, or Robinson that are at least marginally better players and have more starting experience?

 

 

Yikes. I was simply referring to the time I spent putting my thoughts down when it comes to a number of things with the room.

 

A lot of it doesn't appear to be common knowledge around here as many still say things like "we'll be starting Samuel and Shakir on the Outside", "we should sign Tyler Boyd or Hunter Renfrow", the common refrain of "why didn't we double down?", or people thinking the signings of Claypool and Cephus definitively spell the end of additions to the room.

🤷🏻‍♂️ I thought all of that has been discussed in the other eerily similar threads

[Lost]

If we're not getting any elite player, I want majority of snaps going to our younger guys to give them a head start on development.   

[Meatloaf63]

On 5/6/2024 at 5:32 AM, mrags said:

Keon Coleman should have done better in the 40 

He did at his personal work out. 

[BigDingus]

I'm not "good with what we got," but I also don't think there's anyone left that would make an impact either. 

 

As more & more dead cap clears in the coming years, I expect they'll revisit this & go all in on overhauling the position. 

[PrimeTime101]

17 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Josh can run the ball, no need for cocky high priced big mouth wide receivers

[Nephilim17]

I'm guessing that Beane wants to see what happens in camp and maybe even the start of the season. If the WR room is as bad as the critics say it is, expect a trade.

The trade deadline is Nov. 5, 2024. Lots of time to get a vet that way if Beane was wrong. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

With only 1-2 spots open for the 53, I think we are good with what we have. 
 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

15 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I'm not *completely* ruling it out. And I know about Beane smokescreens. But he went uncharacteristically in depth about the "big trades" and them being out and I do feel they are unlikely, for the reasons he stated.

 

I'd definitely be happy if we did. But I do tend to feel he's not lying when he says that he's not interested in handing out the kind of long term money being thrown around this offseason AND giving up premium picks on top of it for a Higgins or an Aiyuk.

 

And Chicago isn't going to trade away either Moore (who they acquired last season) or Allen (who they literally just traded for this offseason).

 

Metcalf... I see everyone talking about it, but I'd believe he'll be moved when I see it. He also carries a 24.5m cap hit and a 13m annual salary for this season. Trades being the way they are, we have to be able to take that on first for a trade to be approved before we can restructure it.

 

Hopefully someone does become available that is more manageable. And again, I'd be all here for it if he was bold face lying and made one of these happen. I just think it's more likely than not he's not interested in doing what it would take in terms of Draft Pick and long term massive financial compensation to do it.

If you didn't listen to Beane and instead looked at the actions, all signs point to a trade.

     Got rid of top WR and second outside WR and only drafted one (a very reasonable G Davis replacement- upgrade even IMO)

     Accumulated draft capital for 2025 - extra second and extra fourth

     Didn't hit the FA WR market hard.

     Have money coming in after June 1st for Tre.  Didn't max out Josh restructure.

 

So for a person like me who doesn't put much stock in what Beane says, the trade market offers a lot more than these FA rejects. 

 

D Adams, DK Metcalf, Dhop, DJ Moore, K Allen, C Godwin, D Samuel, B Aiyuk- all excite me more than that FA garbage.

     

 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

19 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

So for a person like me who doesn't put much stock in what Beane says, the trade market offers a lot more than these FA rejects. 

 

D Adams, DK Metcalf, Dhop, DJ Moore, K Allen, C Godwin, D Samuel, B Aiyuk- all excite me more than that FA garbage.

 

 

So we have our two locks in Shakir and Samuel, leaving some pretty good depth for rack and stack.

 

Hollins hasn't had much stability at the QB position and even after that circus his production is undeniable.

Signing Claypool was a huge gamble as he has been a known problem now for three different teams but his talent is WR1 like when in the right head space.

Cephus is in the same boat as Claypool and has an opportunity to prove himself.

Hamler is a sneaky good stash that Beane still has in his back pocket.

Shorter hasn't even gotten to prove what he brings to the table.

 

As of now, that's a REALLY good pool of risks we are working with to find needed depth at WR... and as you mentioned, we have the ability to trade for a top WR if needed. Beane is a genius... sure he most likely overpaid for Von, but his overall record as GM is brilliant.

Edited May 8 by EasternOHBillsFan

[BillsFanForever19]

On 5/7/2024 at 12:31 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

If you didn't listen to Beane and instead looked at the actions, all signs point to a trade.

     Got rid of top WR and second outside WR and only drafted one (a very reasonable G Davis replacement- upgrade even IMO)

     Accumulated draft capital for 2025 - extra second and extra fourth

     Didn't hit the FA WR market hard.

     Have money coming in after June 1st for Tre.  Didn't max out Josh restructure.

 

So for a person like me who doesn't put much stock in what Beane says, the trade market offers a lot more than these FA rejects. 

 

D Adams, DK Metcalf, Dhop, DJ Moore, K Allen, C Godwin, D Samuel, B Aiyuk- all excite me more than that FA garbage.

     

 

 

Of course they all excite you more than what's available. I'd love to have them too. But we don't have the kind of money available to us, or the cap saving measures left, to get one of them feasibly.

 

First of all, as i've said and others have said to you, the Bears aren't trading one of their WR's. Especially not Keenan Allen. They just got him a month and a half ago. When has anyone traded for a player and then a month later traded him away? You're looking at them having traded for Moore just last season, traded for Allen this season, and then Drafted Odunze and thinking "they have too many WR's". But Allen works out of the Slot more than the Outside. So they'll have Moore and Odunze outside and Allen in the Slot on most packages - with Allen going Outside when one of them subs out. They knew what they were doing with the moves they've made over the past year. 

 

But back to my original point. Yes, we have 10.25 coming 6/1. But after the moves we made in Smoot, Claypool, Cephus, and Jones - subtracting the bottom 4 cap numbers from the Top 51 - we have 1.71m available to us currently. So we'll have just about 12m come 6/1.

 

But we also have to pay for Draft Picks, be able to pay for the Practice Squad, and have a little left over for in season spending. That's going to cut into about half or more of that 12m.

 

That means we'd have to come up with a *LOT* of money for one of those guys. And when it comes to cap saving measures - we've already pulled every release, restructure, and extension cord imaginable to get out from under where we were and do what we've done already, save for a couple.

 

We could do an Oliver restructure and maybe a Milano restructure. But that's not going to be nearly enough to cover the costs we have to cover already and be able to take on the contract of one of those major players. And i'll believe that they'll restructure Josh twice in the same offseason again when I see it.

 

The way trades work is that for them to be approved, we have to be able to take on their contract as is first. You can't restructure their contract or sign them to a new contract until you've traded for their original contract first.

 

And when you look at the contracts of the guys you listed, those are *massive* numbers. Guys like Aiyuk, Higgins, Samuel, Adams - even another restructure of Josh with restructures to Oliver and Milano won't be nearly enough.

 

So, yes, Beane does have the tendency to lie. But in this scenario, it's extremely unlikely to me that he's going to a.) Be able to come up with the kind of money in the first place b.) Would be willing to do the kind of things to contracts to do it, even if there is a path c.) Is going to sign someone to a long term contract at this season's cost for one of those players and d.) Would give up premium Draft Picks for the privilege of paying that contract. Again, i'd be here for it if he did somehow pull it off. But it doesn't seem feasible or characteristic of him to do so. 

 

This is why I'm looking at the FA market. It is infinitely more likely to me that he signs one of them or does nothing at all than it is he'll do what it takes to land one of those heavy hitters at this point in the Offseason, with everything we've done to finesse the cap as much as we have already.

 

So many people like yourself have this mindset of "big trade or nothing". And if that's the case, I'd put it at 95% nothing to 5% big trade. And personally, I'd rather do a move for a manageable veteran left than do nothing at all and roll with Hollins and Shorter or Hollins and Claypool starting the season on the Outside.

Edited May 8 by BillsFanForever19

[HurlyBurly51]

On 5/7/2024 at 8:09 AM, Meatloaf63 said:

He did at his personal work out. 

What was it?  I haven't looked through all the multitude of threads, so genuinely curious as I had not heard this.  Not that it matters😉

[Warriorspikes51]

On 5/7/2024 at 10:59 AM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

With only 1-2 spots open for the 53, I think we are good with what we have. 
 

 

lol that isn’t a factor on whether we acquire a higher end WR 

[Dablitzkrieg]

They're not signing anyone else.  Stop

[Einstein's Dog]

15 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Of course they all excite you more than what's available. I'd love to have them too. But we don't have the kind of money available to us, or the cap saving measures left, to get one of them feasibly.

 

First of all, as i've said and others have said to you, the Bears aren't trading one of their WR's. Especially not Keenan Allen. They just got him a month and a half ago. When has anyone traded for a player and then a month later traded him away? You're looking at them having traded for Moore just last season, traded for Allen this season, and then Drafted Odunze and thinking "they have too many WR's". But Allen works out of the Slot more than the Outside. So they'll have Moore and Odunze outside and Allen in the Slot on most packages - with Allen going Outside when one of them subs out. They knew what they were doing with the moves they've made over the past year. 

 

But back to my original point. Yes, we have 10.25 coming 6/1. But after the moves we made in Smoot, Claypool, Cephus, and Jones - subtracting the bottom 4 cap numbers from the Top 51 - we have 1.71m available to us currently. So we'll have just about 12m come 6/1.

 

But we also have to pay for Draft Picks, be able to pay for the Practice Squad, and have a little left over for in season spending. That's going to cut into about half or more of that 12m.

 

That means we'd have to come up with a *LOT* of money for one of those guys. And when it comes to cap saving measures - we've already pulled every release, restructure, and extension cord imaginable to get out from under where we were and do what we've done already, save for a couple.

 

We could do an Oliver restructure and maybe a Milano restructure. But that's not going to be nearly enough to cover the costs we have to cover already and be able to take on the contract of one of those major players. And i'll believe that they'll restructure Josh twice in the same offseason again when I see it.

 

The way trades work is that for them to be approved, we have to be able to take on their contract as is first. You can't restructure their contract or sign them to a new contract until you've traded for their original contract first.

 

And when you look at the contracts of the guys you listed, those are *massive* numbers. Guys like Aiyuk, Higgins, Samuel, Adams - even another restructure of Josh with restructures to Oliver and Milano won't be nearly enough.

 

So, yes, Beane does have the tendency to lie. But in this scenario, it's extremely unlikely to me that he's going to a.) Be able to come up with the kind of money in the first place b.) Would be willing to do the kind of things to contracts to do it, even if there is a path c.) Is going to sign someone to a long term contract at this season's cost for one of those players and d.) Would give up premium Draft Picks for the privilege of paying that contract. Again, i'd be here for it if he did somehow pull it off. But it doesn't seem feasible or characteristic of him to do so. 

 

This is why I'm looking at the FA market. It is infinitely more likely to me that he signs one of them or does nothing at all than it is he'll do what it takes to land one of those heavy hitters at this point in the Offseason, with everything we've done to finesse the cap as much as we have already.

 

So many people like yourself have this mindset of "big trade or nothing". And if that's the case, I'd put it at 95% nothing to 5% big trade. And personally, I'd rather do a move for a manageable veteran left than do nothing at all and roll with Hollins and Shorter or Hollins and Claypool starting the season on the Outside.

You are an elementary capologist.  The flexibility of salary manipulations is vast.  Once the $10M is in Beane can go to work easily.  For instance look at DHop's 2023 salary, $1.8M, yet we all know he is getting about $13M a year.  With the Tre $10M + Josh restructure the Bills can do it.

 

If they don't address the top tier WR this year, guess what is projected to be the top concern in 2025 - that's right a top tier WR.  Who is currently the most expensive playmaker that Josh has, Knox at his reduced salary or C Samuel at his paltry $8M?  Ridiculous.

 

So many people like yourself seem to have bought in that this team doesn't need a quality top tier WR.  The Bills already have enough of a pool of decent WRs they don't need some middle of the road manageable veteran.  They need to add a top level addition - the FA crop does not satisfy that need (nor did another rookie).

[BillsFanForever19]

Looks like Beane prefers MVS.

[without a drought]

Zay Jones to the Cardinals.

 

https://arizonasports.com/story/3547318/cardinals-sign-wide-receiver-zay-jones-to-1-year-deal/

Edited May 14 by without a drought

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, without a drought said:

Zay Jones to the Cardinals.

 

https://arizonasports.com/story/3547318/cardinals-sign-wide-receiver-zay-jones-to-1-year-deal/

 

Geesh. I can see why they're bringing in MVS now. Between Chark, OBJ, Gallup, Robinson, and now Jones being scooped up Post Draft - waiting for 6/1 is likely no longer an option.