Pick Your Poison: What's Left at Outside WR in Free Agency

[BillsFanForever19]

I feel kind of silly posting this following the poll spoofing the amount of posts about WR on this board lately. But I put some work into this yesterday and I don't want it to go to waste, so flame away for adding another lol

 

EDIT: The following is a tangent I went on regarding a various number of topics relating to the WR Room. My opinions on what their view of the room was heading into the Draft, why I think they did what they did, my view on the room currently, what I see their roles being, the post Draft signings they made, who's available and the likely/unlikely moves they'd make. It is admittedly very long. So feel free to disregard. The base questions and answers are in the Poll.

 

 

I feel going into this Draft, Beane felt he had everything covered but replacements for Diggs and Davis as Starters. Khalil Shakir returns to continue his progression, Curtis Samuel replaces Deonte Harty, and Mack Hollins replaces Trent Sherfield. They felt they needed to grab a Rookie to replace one of those roles and they did with Keon Coleman. But a.) They didn't feel comfortable starting 2 Rookie WR's (and they apparently don't feel comfortable starting even one to start the season, but more on that in a minute....) and b.) Weren't in a position to Draft 2 starting quality WR's in Year 1.

 

If you look at the list of Outside WR's that were available at 60 and beyond, I tend to agree. There was no one really left that i'd see a conservative staff like McBeane feeling comfortable starting in Year 1. Malachi Corley, Roman Wilson, and Jalen McMillan are all potentially good/great Slot's or Slot/Z hybrid's - but we don't need that with Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid in house. The best of what was left/the next off the board for what we needed to fill was Jermaine Burton, Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker, and Javon Baker. Who through character concerns, work ethic concerns, on-field concerns, or how Raw they were fell between Late Round 3 and the end of Round 4. Where they were taken shows that the rest of the league also felt these weren't Day 1 or Year 1 Starters.

 

Anyone they took from 60 on only would have served to replace what they have or planned on bringing in on the bottom of the WR depth chart, as a developmental player, while still leaving a hole atop of it. So they didn't bother taking another. Whether you think that they should have taken one of those guys to knock guys like Shorter, Claypool and Cephus (post Draft), Hamler, or Isabella off the bottom spot or potentially two spots (if we keep 7 this year - as we have in multiple years under McDermott) of the WR depth chart is a fair discussion. But I see no way they would have used one of those guys to replace Diggs or Davis.

 

So where does that leave us? Still with a hole, in my opinion. We go into this season having lost Diggs, Davis, Harty, and Sherfield. Like I said, Samuel replaces Harty, Hollins replaces Sherfield, and now Coleman replaces one of Diggs or Davis. And this is where it gets tricky. Beane has said "Coleman will have a hard time Starting Week 1". Combine that statement with how McDermott brings along Rookies and I tend to feel that's an accurate statement. So not only do we need to replace the other spot left by the departure of Diggs and Davis - but the guy we took to replace one of those spots likely won't be given most of the reps there to start the year.

 

That leaves us to start the year with what on the Outside? Hollins and Shorter? Hollins and Claypool? Hollins and Cephus? With Coleman cycling in until they feel his sea legs are under him? No way. I just can't see that being a real possibility.

 

And before it's said, no, I don't think Samuel is going Outside full time or close to it. I see him being utilized there 50% of the time at the absolute most, more likely well under that. His usage in the league combined with Beane's own words seem to confirm that, in my opinion. His success in the league has come from a 74.6% number in the Slot over the past 2 seasons. And when asked about Samuel, Beane has simply called him "a weapon" on multiple occasions. Going on to say that he "was in the RB room just as much as the WR room when I was in Carolina". I think he's going to get a lot of usage all over the field. But he's not a guy I see them lining up predominantly on the Outside. And no, Khalil Shakir is not an Outside WR either. We put him there a little bit in the Playoffs when we were banged up and he didn't produce there. With both of them (and to the same extent, Boyd and Renfrow, who i'll also get to later) there's this incorrect idea that if you're a really good slot that means you can play on the Outside. 

 

But i'm getting sidetracked, so i'll try and get this back on the rails. I don't believe either Chase Claypool or Quintez Cephus (or K.J. Hamler on a Futures deal) are guys they envision starting. These are guys that were signed for peanuts that they're taking a flyer on. Guys that have some talent, production, and/or Draft pedigree that didn't work out and have some stink on them. They're guys who have a ceiling of maybe pushing Justin Shorter off the bottom of the Roster or sticking in the event we keep 7. But more likely most of them will be on the Practice Squad or outright cut. Guys that they'd like to take a look at and see if they can be successful reclamation projects.

 

I think the plan was/is to bring in a veteran with starting experience and talent on the Outside, after 6/1 when Tre's money comes in. I believe that they surmised with the Rookie pool being what it was, the remaining pool of vets would remain largely untouched until then and that teams would Draft players to replace some vets.

 

Unfortunately, it hasn't quite worked out that way. Teams apparently viewed this class much like we did. About 7 true outside guys worthy of the top 52 picks and then a bunch of longer term developmental guys you don't rely on immediately. As such, just Zay Jones has hit the market (after Jacksonville drafted Brian Thomas Jr.) and the top 3 remaining Outside guys in Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and Odell Beckham Jr. ended up being swooped up by other teams before our money came in. I don't think this is what they expected. 

 

When it comes to a Trade, I tend to believe Beane when he says a big one isn't coming. I don't think he wants to give up Premium Draft Picks and then hand a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk a brand new 125+m contract on top of it, this offseason. I'm not sure they could afford it even if they wanted to. Don't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to it and I'd love to be wrong. But I just don't see it happening.

 

That leaves us in a precarious situation. A big trade is supposedly out. And the top 3 starting quality Outside WR FA's are off the board. Smaller more manageable trades may exist, but we wouldn't know who it was until it happened. Courtland Sutton could have worked, but after trading away Jeudy and Drafting Bo Nix, it seems as though they aren't interested in moving him and leaving the cupboard bare for Nix - having turned down overtures for him from other teams during the Draft.

 

So what's left? Although not a particularly inspiring pool of guys, there are still some WR's out there there that would be an upgrade to starting Hollins and/or Shorter. That list includes: Michael Thomas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Zay Jones, and Allen Robinson. 

 

Surely someone's going to reply with "I want Tyler Boyd". But Tyler Boyd is a PURE Slot. He's had a whooping 81% from the Slot in his career and even a higher number than that over the past number of years, after not impressing from the Outside early in his career. The same goes for Hunter Renfrow. The only thing either of them would do, much like Corley, Wilson, and McMillan in the Draft, is remove Samuel, Shakir, or Kincaid from the field more and make that area of the roster even more crowded - while leaving the hole on the Outside not covered. 

 

So.... now that I'm done being long winded (as usual), what say you? Would you sign one of these players, if so, which one? Or would you rather not sign one of these guys and go into the season with what we have? And do you think Beane will add anyone?
 

Edited May 14 by BillsFanForever19

[Gugny]

10 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I feel kind of silly posting this following the poll spoofing the amount of posts about WR on this board lately. But I put some work into this yesterday and I don't want it to go to waste, so flame away for adding another lol

 

I feel going into this Draft, Beane felt he had everything covered but replacements for Diggs and Davis as Starters. Khalil Shakir returns to continue his progression, Curtis Samuel replaces Deonte Harty, and Mack Hollins replaces Trent Sherfield. They felt they needed to grab a Rookie to replace one of those roles and they did with Keon Coleman. But a.) They didn't feel comfortable starting 2 Rookie WR's (and they apparently don't feel comfortable starting even one to start the season, but more on that in a minute....) and b.) Weren't in a position to Draft 2 starting quality WR's in Year 1.

 

If you look at the list of Outside WR's that were available at 60 and beyond, I tend to agree. There was no one really left that i'd see a conservative staff like McBeane feeling comfortable starting in Year 1. Malachi Corley, Roman Wilson, and Jalen McMillan are all potentially good/great Slot's or Slot/Z hybrid's - but we don't need that with Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid in house. The best of what was left/the next off the board for what we needed to fill was Jermaine Burton, Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker, and Javon Baker. Who through character concerns, work ethic concerns, on-field concerns, or how Raw they were fell between Late Round 3 and the end of Round 4. Where they were taken shows that the rest of the league also felt these weren't Day 1 or Year 1 Starters.

 

Anyone they took from 60 on only would have served to replace what they have or planned on bringing in on the bottom of the WR depth chart, as a developmental player, while still leaving a hole atop of it. So they didn't bother taking another. Whether you think that they should have taken one of those guys to knock guys like Shorter, Claypool and Cephus (post Draft), Hamler, or Isabella off the bottom spot or potentially two spots (if we keep 7 this year - as we have in multiple years under McDermott) of the WR depth chart is a fair discussion. But I see no way they would have used one of those guys to replace Diggs or Davis.

 

So where does that leave us? Still with a hole, in my opinion. We go into this season having lost Diggs, Davis, Harty, and Sherfield. Like I said, Samuel replaces Harty, Hollins replaces Sherfield, and now Coleman replaces one of Diggs or Davis. And this is where it gets tricky. Beane has said "Coleman will have a hard time Starting Week 1". Combine that statement with how McDermott brings along Rookies and I tend to feel that's an accurate statement. So not only do we need to replace the other spot left by the departure of Diggs and Davis - but the guy we took to replace one of those spots likely won't be given most of the reps there to start the year.

 

That leaves us to start the year with what on the Outside? Hollins and Shorter? Hollins and Claypool? Hollins and Cephus? With Coleman cycling in until they feel his sea legs are under him? No way. I just can't see that being a real possibility.

 

And before it's said, no, I don't think Samuel is going Outside full time or close to it. I see him being utilized there 50% of the time at the absolute most, more likely well under that. His usage in the league combined with Beane's own words seem to confirm that, in my opinion. His success in the league has come from a 74.6% number in the Slot over the past 2 seasons. And when asked about Samuel, Beane has simply called him "a weapon" on multiple occasions. Going on to say that he "was in the RB room just as much as the WR room when I was in Carolina". I think he's going to get a lot of usage all over the field. But he's not a guy I see them lining up predominantly on the Outside. And no, Khalil Shakir is not an Outside WR either. We put him there a little bit in the Playoffs when we were banged up and he didn't produce there. With both of them (and to the same extent, Boyd and Renfrow, who i'll also get to later) there's this incorrect idea that if you're a really good slot that means you can play on the Outside. 

 

But i'm getting sidetracked, so i'll try and get this back on the rails. I don't believe either Chase Claypool or Quintez Cephus (or K.J. Hamler on a Futures deal) are guys they envision starting. These are guys that were signed for peanuts that they're taking a flyer on. Guys that have some talent, production, and/or Draft pedigree that didn't work out and have some stink on them. They're guys who have a ceiling of maybe pushing Justin Shorter off the bottom of the Roster or sticking in the event we keep 7. But more likely most of them will be on the Practice Squad or outright cut. Guys that they'd like to take a look at and see if they can be successful reclamation projects.

 

I think the plan was/is to bring in a veteran with starting experience and talent on the Outside, after 6/1 when Tre's money comes in. I believe that they surmised with the Rookie pool being what it was, the remaining pool of vets would remain largely untouched until then and that teams would Draft players to replace some vets.

 

Unfortunately, it hasn't quite worked out that way. Teams apparently viewed this class much like we did. About 7 true outside guys worthy of the top 52 picks and then a bunch of longer term developmental guys you don't rely on immediately. As such, just Zay Jones has hit the market (after Jacksonville drafted Brian Thomas Jr.) and the top 3 remaining Outside guys in Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and Odell Beckham Jr. ended up being swooped up by other teams before our money came in. I don't think this is what they expected. 

 

When it comes to a Trade, I tend to believe Beane when he says a big one isn't coming. I don't think he wants to give up Premium Draft Picks and then hand a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk a brand new 125+m contract on top of it, this offseason. I'm not sure they could afford it even if they wanted to. Don't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to it and I'd love to be wrong. But I just don't see it happening.

 

That leaves us in a precarious situation. A big trade is supposedly out. And the top 3 starting quality Outside WR FA's are off the board. Smaller more manageable trades may exist, but we wouldn't know who it was until it happened. Courtland Sutton could have worked, but after trading away Jeudy and Drafting Bo Nix, it seems as though they aren't interested in moving him and leaving the cupboard bare for Nix - having turned down overtures.

 

So what's left? Although not a particularly inspiring pool of guys, there are still some WR's out there there that would be an upgrade to starting Hollins and/or Shorter. That list includes: Michael Thomas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Zay Jones, and Allen Robinson. 

 

Surely someone's going to reply with "I want Tyler Boyd". But Tyler Boyd is a PURE Slot. He's had a whooping 81% from the Slot in his career and even a higher number than that over the past number of years, after not impressing from the Outside early in his career. The same goes for Hunter Renfrow. The only thing either of them would do, much like Corley, Wilson, and McMillan in the Draft, is remove Samuel, Shakir, or Kincaid from the field more and make that area of the roster even more crowded - while leaving the hole on the Outside not covered. 

 

So.... now that I'm done being long winded (as usual), what say you? Would you sign one of these players, if so, which one? Or would you rather not sign one of these guys and go into the season with what we have? And do you think Beane will add anyone?
 

Look. If you have something to say, just say it. Stop beating around the bush. 

[mrags]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

Look. If you have something to say, just say it. Stop beating around the bush. 

What’s funny is I read all that faster than Coleman ran his 40 at the combine 

[Rigotz]

None of the options you presented - WR via trade and restructure.

[Big Blitz]

I will say this - it felt like Lawrence was much better with Zay on the field last season.  

[BullBuchanan]

Shakir and Samuel will be your first and second options to start the year with Kincaid lining up in the slot a good deal and then Shakir and Samuele moving in there when Coleman is on the field.

I loved Michael Thomas before his injuries, but it's really hard to argue he's still an NFL level talent at this point. It's crazy how fast a guy can go from best int he league to irrelevant, but we've been seeing it a lot of it over the last few years.

MVS might be the best player in that list right now, and that's not saying much because I'm not sure he's a top 90 receiver.

Edited May 6 by BullBuchanan

[SoonerBillsFan]

I think we may go to camp with what we have.

[MJS]

I can't vote because there isn't a "None of the above" option.

[BillsFanForever19]

9 minutes ago, MJS said:

I can't vote because there isn't a "None of the above" option.

 

Sorry, I wasn't aware that you're forced to answer both questions. Figured the last option covered it. But I added that option to the top.

 

Surely, we'd all take a Higgins or an Aiyuk. But like I said, I don't believe it's an option and do tend to take him at his word when he says "it's not happening". 

 

So "none of the above" is essentially acquiring no one else in this exercise. It's more of a pick one from the FA pool or stand pat kind of poll - as I find that to be the most realistic scenario. Though, again, I'd love to be wrong about that.

Edited May 6 by BillsFanForever19

[Draconator]

53 minutes ago, mrags said:

What’s funny is I read all that faster than Coleman ran his 40 at the combine 

The Coleman hate is annoying, but this was funny. 

[BeastMaster]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

What’s funny is I read all that faster than Coleman ran his 40 at the combine 

When are you going to stop with the tears over this poor kids 40 time?

 

It's bordering on being very unhealthy for you at this point, and I don't wanna see you meltdown when he shows you how little his 40 time matters

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

When are you going to stop with the tears over this poor kids 40 time?

 

It's bordering on being very unhealthy for you at this point, and I don't wanna see you meltdown when he shows you how little his 40 time matters

Oh my lord. How will I ever live with myself 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Sorry, I wasn't aware that you're forced to answer both questions. Figured the last option covered it. But I added that option to the top.

 

Surely, we'd all take a Higgins or an Aiyuk. But like I said, I don't believe it's an option and do tend to take him at his word when he says "it's not happening". 

 

So "none of the above" is essentially acquiring no one else in this exercise. It's more of a pick one from the FA pool or stand pat kind of poll - as I find that to be the most realistic scenario. Though, again, I'd love to be wrong about that.

Yeah, I just didn't want to have to vote for one of those receivers because I'd rather not have any of them.

[Buffalo03]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I feel kind of silly posting this following the poll spoofing the amount of posts about WR on this board lately. But I put some work into this yesterday and I don't want it to go to waste, so flame away for adding another lol

 

I feel going into this Draft, Beane felt he had everything covered but replacements for Diggs and Davis as Starters. Khalil Shakir returns to continue his progression, Curtis Samuel replaces Deonte Harty, and Mack Hollins replaces Trent Sherfield. They felt they needed to grab a Rookie to replace one of those roles and they did with Keon Coleman. But a.) They didn't feel comfortable starting 2 Rookie WR's (and they apparently don't feel comfortable starting even one to start the season, but more on that in a minute....) and b.) Weren't in a position to Draft 2 starting quality WR's in Year 1.

 

If you look at the list of Outside WR's that were available at 60 and beyond, I tend to agree. There was no one really left that i'd see a conservative staff like McBeane feeling comfortable starting in Year 1. Malachi Corley, Roman Wilson, and Jalen McMillan are all potentially good/great Slot's or Slot/Z hybrid's - but we don't need that with Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid in house. The best of what was left/the next off the board for what we needed to fill was Jermaine Burton, Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker, and Javon Baker. Who through character concerns, work ethic concerns, on-field concerns, or how Raw they were fell between Late Round 3 and the end of Round 4. Where they were taken shows that the rest of the league also felt these weren't Day 1 or Year 1 Starters.

 

Anyone they took from 60 on only would have served to replace what they have or planned on bringing in on the bottom of the WR depth chart, as a developmental player, while still leaving a hole atop of it. So they didn't bother taking another. Whether you think that they should have taken one of those guys to knock guys like Shorter, Claypool and Cephus (post Draft), Hamler, or Isabella off the bottom spot or potentially two spots (if we keep 7 this year - as we have in multiple years under McDermott) of the WR depth chart is a fair discussion. But I see no way they would have used one of those guys to replace Diggs or Davis.

 

So where does that leave us? Still with a hole, in my opinion. We go into this season having lost Diggs, Davis, Harty, and Sherfield. Like I said, Samuel replaces Harty, Hollins replaces Sherfield, and now Coleman replaces one of Diggs or Davis. And this is where it gets tricky. Beane has said "Coleman will have a hard time Starting Week 1". Combine that statement with how McDermott brings along Rookies and I tend to feel that's an accurate statement. So not only do we need to replace the other spot left by the departure of Diggs and Davis - but the guy we took to replace one of those spots likely won't be given most of the reps there to start the year.

 

That leaves us to start the year with what on the Outside? Hollins and Shorter? Hollins and Claypool? Hollins and Cephus? With Coleman cycling in until they feel his sea legs are under him? No way. I just can't see that being a real possibility.

 

And before it's said, no, I don't think Samuel is going Outside full time or close to it. I see him being utilized there 50% of the time at the absolute most, more likely well under that. His usage in the league combined with Beane's own words seem to confirm that, in my opinion. His success in the league has come from a 74.6% number in the Slot over the past 2 seasons. And when asked about Samuel, Beane has simply called him "a weapon" on multiple occasions. Going on to say that he "was in the RB room just as much as the WR room when I was in Carolina". I think he's going to get a lot of usage all over the field. But he's not a guy I see them lining up predominantly on the Outside. And no, Khalil Shakir is not an Outside WR either. We put him there a little bit in the Playoffs when we were banged up and he didn't produce there. With both of them (and to the same extent, Boyd and Renfrow, who i'll also get to later) there's this incorrect idea that if you're a really good slot that means you can play on the Outside. 

 

But i'm getting sidetracked, so i'll try and get this back on the rails. I don't believe either Chase Claypool or Quintez Cephus (or K.J. Hamler on a Futures deal) are guys they envision starting. These are guys that were signed for peanuts that they're taking a flyer on. Guys that have some talent, production, and/or Draft pedigree that didn't work out and have some stink on them. They're guys who have a ceiling of maybe pushing Justin Shorter off the bottom of the Roster or sticking in the event we keep 7. But more likely most of them will be on the Practice Squad or outright cut. Guys that they'd like to take a look at and see if they can be successful reclamation projects.

 

I think the plan was/is to bring in a veteran with starting experience and talent on the Outside, after 6/1 when Tre's money comes in. I believe that they surmised with the Rookie pool being what it was, the remaining pool of vets would remain largely untouched until then and that teams would Draft players to replace some vets.

 

Unfortunately, it hasn't quite worked out that way. Teams apparently viewed this class much like we did. About 7 true outside guys worthy of the top 52 picks and then a bunch of longer term developmental guys you don't rely on immediately. As such, just Zay Jones has hit the market (after Jacksonville drafted Brian Thomas Jr.) and the top 3 remaining Outside guys in Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and Odell Beckham Jr. ended up being swooped up by other teams before our money came in. I don't think this is what they expected. 

 

When it comes to a Trade, I tend to believe Beane when he says a big one isn't coming. I don't think he wants to give up Premium Draft Picks and then hand a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk a brand new 125+m contract on top of it, this offseason. I'm not sure they could afford it even if they wanted to. Don't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to it and I'd love to be wrong. But I just don't see it happening.

 

That leaves us in a precarious situation. A big trade is supposedly out. And the top 3 starting quality Outside WR FA's are off the board. Smaller more manageable trades may exist, but we wouldn't know who it was until it happened. Courtland Sutton could have worked, but after trading away Jeudy and Drafting Bo Nix, it seems as though they aren't interested in moving him and leaving the cupboard bare for Nix - having turned down overtures for him from other teams during the Draft.

 

So what's left? Although not a particularly inspiring pool of guys, there are still some WR's out there there that would be an upgrade to starting Hollins and/or Shorter. That list includes: Michael Thomas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Zay Jones, and Allen Robinson. 

 

Surely someone's going to reply with "I want Tyler Boyd". But Tyler Boyd is a PURE Slot. He's had a whooping 81% from the Slot in his career and even a higher number than that over the past number of years, after not impressing from the Outside early in his career. The same goes for Hunter Renfrow. The only thing either of them would do, much like Corley, Wilson, and McMillan in the Draft, is remove Samuel, Shakir, or Kincaid from the field more and make that area of the roster even more crowded - while leaving the hole on the Outside not covered. 

 

So.... now that I'm done being long winded (as usual), what say you? Would you sign one of these players, if so, which one? Or would you rather not sign one of these guys and go into the season with what we have? And do you think Beane will add anyone?
 

This is the best novel I've ever read

[BeastMaster]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Oh my lord. How will I ever live with myself 

Based on how obsessed you are over him and his forty time, I'm pretty concerned with your mental state

 

A comment a day or two after the draft...OK. Every day since on multiple occasions? That's a problem, my guy 

[US Egg]

What was the question?

[mrags]

4 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

Based on how obsessed you are over him and his forty time, I'm pretty concerned with your mental state

 

A comment a day or two after the draft...OK. Every day since on multiple occasions? That's a problem, my guy 

You seem to have an obsession over my mental state. This isn’t the first time you’ve made comments like this. You should Be concerned for yourself with how much your obsessing over me. 
 

have a nice day Freud. 

[H2o]

JAG City. Pass. Ride it out. Let the young guys play at this point. Make an in season move before the trade deadline if the experiment fails. 

Edited May 6 by H2o

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, mrags said:

What’s funny is I read all that faster than Coleman ran his 40 at the combine 

 

16 minutes ago, mrags said:

You seem to have an obsession over my mental state. This isn’t the first time you’ve made comments like this. You should Be concerned for yourself with how much your obsessing over me. 
 

have a nice day Freud. 

One doesn’t have to be obsessed with your mental state to notice.  It just sticks out like a sore thumb.  It is strange considering I think I kind of know the guy behind the posts.  I was wondering the same thing. 

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I feel kind of silly posting this following the poll spoofing the amount of posts about WR on this board lately. But I put some work into this yesterday and I don't want it to go to waste, so flame away for adding another lol

 

I feel going into this Draft, Beane felt he had everything covered but replacements for Diggs and Davis as Starters. Khalil Shakir returns to continue his progression, Curtis Samuel replaces Deonte Harty, and Mack Hollins replaces Trent Sherfield. They felt they needed to grab a Rookie to replace one of those roles and they did with Keon Coleman. But a.) They didn't feel comfortable starting 2 Rookie WR's (and they apparently don't feel comfortable starting even one to start the season, but more on that in a minute....) and b.) Weren't in a position to Draft 2 starting quality WR's in Year 1.

 

If you look at the list of Outside WR's that were available at 60 and beyond, I tend to agree. There was no one really left that i'd see a conservative staff like McBeane feeling comfortable starting in Year 1. Malachi Corley, Roman Wilson, and Jalen McMillan are all potentially good/great Slot's or Slot/Z hybrid's - but we don't need that with Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid in house. The best of what was left/the next off the board for what we needed to fill was Jermaine Burton, Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker, and Javon Baker. Who through character concerns, work ethic concerns, on-field concerns, or how Raw they were fell between Late Round 3 and the end of Round 4. Where they were taken shows that the rest of the league also felt these weren't Day 1 or Year 1 Starters.

 

Anyone they took from 60 on only would have served to replace what they have or planned on bringing in on the bottom of the WR depth chart, as a developmental player, while still leaving a hole atop of it. So they didn't bother taking another. Whether you think that they should have taken one of those guys to knock guys like Shorter, Claypool and Cephus (post Draft), Hamler, or Isabella off the bottom spot or potentially two spots (if we keep 7 this year - as we have in multiple years under McDermott) of the WR depth chart is a fair discussion. But I see no way they would have used one of those guys to replace Diggs or Davis.

 

So where does that leave us? Still with a hole, in my opinion. We go into this season having lost Diggs, Davis, Harty, and Sherfield. Like I said, Samuel replaces Harty, Hollins replaces Sherfield, and now Coleman replaces one of Diggs or Davis. And this is where it gets tricky. Beane has said "Coleman will have a hard time Starting Week 1". Combine that statement with how McDermott brings along Rookies and I tend to feel that's an accurate statement. So not only do we need to replace the other spot left by the departure of Diggs and Davis - but the guy we took to replace one of those spots likely won't be given most of the reps there to start the year.

 

That leaves us to start the year with what on the Outside? Hollins and Shorter? Hollins and Claypool? Hollins and Cephus? With Coleman cycling in until they feel his sea legs are under him? No way. I just can't see that being a real possibility.

 

And before it's said, no, I don't think Samuel is going Outside full time or close to it. I see him being utilized there 50% of the time at the absolute most, more likely well under that. His usage in the league combined with Beane's own words seem to confirm that, in my opinion. His success in the league has come from a 74.6% number in the Slot over the past 2 seasons. And when asked about Samuel, Beane has simply called him "a weapon" on multiple occasions. Going on to say that he "was in the RB room just as much as the WR room when I was in Carolina". I think he's going to get a lot of usage all over the field. But he's not a guy I see them lining up predominantly on the Outside. And no, Khalil Shakir is not an Outside WR either. We put him there a little bit in the Playoffs when we were banged up and he didn't produce there. With both of them (and to the same extent, Boyd and Renfrow, who i'll also get to later) there's this incorrect idea that if you're a really good slot that means you can play on the Outside. 

 

But i'm getting sidetracked, so i'll try and get this back on the rails. I don't believe either Chase Claypool or Quintez Cephus (or K.J. Hamler on a Futures deal) are guys they envision starting. These are guys that were signed for peanuts that they're taking a flyer on. Guys that have some talent, production, and/or Draft pedigree that didn't work out and have some stink on them. They're guys who have a ceiling of maybe pushing Justin Shorter off the bottom of the Roster or sticking in the event we keep 7. But more likely most of them will be on the Practice Squad or outright cut. Guys that they'd like to take a look at and see if they can be successful reclamation projects.

 

I think the plan was/is to bring in a veteran with starting experience and talent on the Outside, after 6/1 when Tre's money comes in. I believe that they surmised with the Rookie pool being what it was, the remaining pool of vets would remain largely untouched until then and that teams would Draft players to replace some vets.

 

Unfortunately, it hasn't quite worked out that way. Teams apparently viewed this class much like we did. About 7 true outside guys worthy of the top 52 picks and then a bunch of longer term developmental guys you don't rely on immediately. As such, just Zay Jones has hit the market (after Jacksonville drafted Brian Thomas Jr.) and the top 3 remaining Outside guys in Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and Odell Beckham Jr. ended up being swooped up by other teams before our money came in. I don't think this is what they expected. 

 

When it comes to a Trade, I tend to believe Beane when he says a big one isn't coming. I don't think he wants to give up Premium Draft Picks and then hand a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk a brand new 125+m contract on top of it, this offseason. I'm not sure they could afford it even if they wanted to. Don't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to it and I'd love to be wrong. But I just don't see it happening.

 

That leaves us in a precarious situation. A big trade is supposedly out. And the top 3 starting quality Outside WR FA's are off the board. Smaller more manageable trades may exist, but we wouldn't know who it was until it happened. Courtland Sutton could have worked, but after trading away Jeudy and Drafting Bo Nix, it seems as though they aren't interested in moving him and leaving the cupboard bare for Nix - having turned down overtures for him from other teams during the Draft.

 

So what's left? Although not a particularly inspiring pool of guys, there are still some WR's out there there that would be an upgrade to starting Hollins and/or Shorter. That list includes: Michael Thomas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Zay Jones, and Allen Robinson. 

 

Surely someone's going to reply with "I want Tyler Boyd". But Tyler Boyd is a PURE Slot. He's had a whooping 81% from the Slot in his career and even a higher number than that over the past number of years, after not impressing from the Outside early in his career. The same goes for Hunter Renfrow. The only thing either of them would do, much like Corley, Wilson, and McMillan in the Draft, is remove Samuel, Shakir, or Kincaid from the field more and make that area of the roster even more crowded - while leaving the hole on the Outside not covered. 

 

So.... now that I'm done being long winded (as usual), what say you? Would you sign one of these players, if so, which one? Or would you rather not sign one of these guys and go into the season with what we have? And do you think Beane will add anyone?
 

What kind of “work” did you put into this?  All common knowledge at this stage in the game, no?

[BuffaloBillyG]

Beane already has seen this list and said "Get me Chase Claypool's agent on the phone". I think that says what we need to know.

 

I think we hit camp with what we have. I think we enter the season with the winners of the camp battles. I think any trade comes closer to the deadline with that extra 2nd rounder we have being swapped for a WR should what we have not be working out.