Top 5 QB and Top 5 WR salary cannot coexist on a SB team

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

rounding has nothing to do w it...if you walk through 5.25 parking spaces you are in the 6th space

its meaningless because, among other things, top 5 is a completely arbitrary cutoff

 

super bowl 50 featured the 6th highest QB cap hit in Manning and the 3rd highest cap hit at WR in Demaryius Thomas

 

 

 

 

Nope. Or anyway, you have to stretch to say so.

 

Before the season Manning agreed to a reduction in salary from $19M to $15M.

 

Top 6:

Rodgers $22M

Ryan $20.75M

Flacco $20.1M

Brees $20M

Kaepernick $19M

Cutler $18.1M

 

That $4M they saved was big money back then.

 

In other words, Manning was making a salary that would have put him far above the top five cutoff, and he then agreed to a reduction that took him outside that cutoff. And that's the team that won the Super Bowl. This is an argument that the OP is right, not that he's wrong.

 

In fairness, he ended up making the money back. His $4M pay cut was exchanged for $4M in unlikely to be earned incentives, namely $2M if they made the Super Bowl and $2M more if they won it. But unlikely to be earned bonuses count against the next year's cap.

 

He earned it. They don't win that SB without Manning, but he gave the team back money that allowed them to make some moves. Specifically, Manning took the pay cut on March 4th and they signed the new contract for Demaryius on July 17th. Back then, $4M was almost 3% of the team's cap. Who else did they bring in with that money that helped them win a title?

 

There is certainly no way to show they would have signed the Thomas contract if they hadn't got the extra money from Manning.

 

 

Oh, and yes top five was a somewhat random choice, but also a completely reasonable one. It's not squeezing it down to the top two or something to eliminate as many candidates as possible. Yet it keeps the field down to teams spending very very serious money on WRs. The fact that you only found one that was even close points out that it indeed appears to be a line that has some real life consequences for crossing.

 

Obviously, getting and paying, even very highly, an excellent QB, particularly one as good as Allen, is an excellent idea. The very questionable part here is paying the WR. Once the QB's salary starts to bite, teams have to make compromises elsewhere. Bringing in in stead  a solid group of WRs, and particularly a good TE since they cost less and can come very close in productivity, is what has proved the best strategy to win a Lombardi.

 

 

Edited May 5 by Thurman#1

[billsbackto81]

16 hours ago, Process said:

Eagles have maybe the most stacked team in the league with Hurts' contract and not one but two WRs making huge money.

Maybe the OP meant SB "winning" team. 🤔

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

rounding has nothing to do w it...if you walk through 5.25 parking spaces you are in the 6th space

 

 

Getting way off track now, but...

You can't park a car in a 1/4 of a parking space so if you have 5.25 parking spaces you realistically have 5 spaces. You can't say you have six and take payment for a sixth car when they don't have anywhere to park. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, 90sBills said:

That’s not what I said. If a receiver can consistently get open but the qb can’t get them the ball it doesn’t mean the receiver is bad. Think Zack Wilson with Garrett Wilson. With a marginal qb those open opportunities would be completed. Think Dhop with Hopkins or Kyler Murray.
 

What you said about all Allen needed was Diggs to get open and he’d get him the ball is just competent qb work is my point. Elite QBs would elevate a receiver. I.E. throw his guy open. Or make an accurate throw even if he’s cover where only the receiver has a chance at it. Those things make marginal receivers seem elite while the former make marginal QBs seem elite. That was the distinction I was making.

 

Again not saying Allen doesn’t do that. I was just making a distinction from your receivers getting open comment because it’s the offseason and I’m bored. 

 

OK and maybe I wasn't completely clear either in my original post.  My point is a top QB like Allen can make what is considered a mediocre WR look like a Diggs or DHop.  That's where teams can get themselves in trouble too, a WR on a team like Buffalo or KC is a FA and the Jets sign him with Zack Wilson at QB and are disappointed when he doesn't put up the same big numbers.  Certainly a guy like Diggs is actually good, when he wants to be but not all.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

3 out of the 5 made it to a SB... So....

 

two of the three made it with their QB's on rookie deals.  Heck, Hurts still won't take on a serious top 10 let alone top 5 cap hit until 2027. 

 

Bills had a similar rookie QB deal window with Josh Allen and made AFC Championship game and had the 13 second debacle. 

[Maine-iac]

13 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Before 2019 is there a receiver other than Owens who led Buffalo in receiving that wasn't drafted by Buffalo?  I'm too lazy to look it all up but I can't think of one.  Mind you I only remember back to Reed and Burkett in the late 80's.

 

10 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Lofton

Brown

Beasley 

Lewis

Early

 

 

 

All had a few good seasons for the Bills.  None of them led the team in receiving before 2019.  I'll be honest I don't remember Lewis? 

 

So I went back and looked some of it up.  Bill Brooks led the team in 95.  So other than one season from Owens and Brooks you can go back to Frank Lewis (found the Lewis you must have referenced) before you find a WR who wasn't drafted by Buffalo and led the team in receiving.

 

[djp14150]

In a salary cap structure you can pay high on one WR with a QB on full salary.  Thst means you need to sign others below market.

 

there is a window to ride a rookie QB contract where you can use that money in other positions.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Well, yeah, that is indeed a ridiculous premise.

 

I'd argue that he was exaggerating a bit in the headline, but has an excellent point. Saying it can't be done is indeed likely over the top.

 

Many of us are saying that winning in those circumstances appears to be much less likely. And that paying both a top 5 QB and a top 5 WR is maybe not such a great use of money. That's an entirely reasonable argument.

 

And yeah, as I said, I'm sure you are right there are more. Which just makes the point stronger. The fact there are quite a few teams that tried this strategy who made the top four, the fact that none then won is significant.

 

Have a great Sunday, Doc.

 

 

 

Yes, this.  

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

two of the three made it with their QB's on rookie deals.  Heck, Hurts still won't take on a serious top 10 let alone top 5 cap hit until 2027. 

 

Bills had a similar rookie QB deal window with Josh Allen and made AFC Championship game and had the 13 second debacle. 

 

That's not what the OP is stating though.

[Big Blitz]

I think the looming Waddle and Tua contracts will reveal a lot about how teams approach this scenario.   
 

What percentage of their cap are they going to allot to Tua and Waddle and how do they make that work?  
 

 

Same with Chase in Cincy.  

Edited May 5 by Big Blitz

[BarleyNY]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

We don't have a top5QB salary

This is a very good point. Allen is currently 9th at $43M AAV. Burrow is first at $55M. 

 

 

[Coastie]

18 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Closest I’ve found is Stafford and Kupp.  

 

 

Got me thinking how often is this even possible so I looked at the last 5 years based on top 5 at each position in Average Salary per Year.

 

2023: Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (2), Stefon Diggs (5). 11-6, Won Wild Card 31-17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Lost Divisional Round 24-27 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

2022: Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (2), Deandre Hopkins (3). 4-13

2021: Dak Prescott (3), Amari Cooper (4). 12-5, Lost Wild Card 17-23 vs. San Francisco 49ers

2020: None

2019: Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff (T3), Brandin Cooks (5). 9-7

 

So in 5 years, only 4 examples so a very small sample size. Of those 4, 2 missed the playoffs completely, a wildcard round loss and our Bills last year which anyone who has read this far into the post knows what happened. So I would say this happens far too rarely to make a definitive conclusion that a top 5 QB/WR combo can't win a Super Bowl but I would have expected better overall results from the other three examples in the last 5 years.

[Big Blitz]

7 minutes ago, Coastie said:

 

Got me thinking how often is this even possible so I looked at the last 5 years based on top 5 at each position in Average Salary per Year.

 

2023: Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (2), Stefon Diggs (5). 11-6, Won Wild Card 31-17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Lost Divisional Round 24-27 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

2022: Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (2), Deandre Hopkins (3). 4-13

2021: Dak Prescott (3), Amari Cooper (4). 12-5, Lost Wild Card 17-23 vs. San Francisco 49ers

2020: None

2019: Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff (T3), Brandin Cooks (5). 9-7

 

So in 5 years, only 4 examples so a very small sample size. Of those 4, 2 missed the playoffs completely, a wildcard round loss and our Bills last year which anyone who has read this far into the post knows what happened. So I would say this happens far too rarely to make a definitive conclusion that a top 5 QB/WR combo can't win a Super Bowl but I would have expected better overall results from the other three examples in the last 5 years.

 

Also you won’t see many examples of it now and in the years ahead because teams aren’t going to pay it.  
 

Like I said we’ll learn a bit more from the Waddle, Tua, and Chase contracts in regards to what teams are willing to commit to the cap.   

[bigK14094]

18 hours ago, H2o said:

Have you taken a look at their roster? Hurts, Saquon, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, DeVante Parker, Parris Campbell, they drafted Will Shipley, and they still have Kenneth Gainwell. I think they have a big time bounce back year and take that division with ease, especially if Barkley is healthy all season long. He is going to eat in that offensive scheme. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if they ended up in the SB again. 

You had me until you mentioned DeVante parket

[H2o]

19 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

You had me until you mentioned DeVante parket

And why is that? Like he's that bad of a 3rd/4th option? Like you can just ignore the rest because you don't like him? Sure, OK 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

This is a very good point. Allen is currently 9th at $43M AAV. Burrow is first at $55M. 

 

 

Yeah

 

I'm guessing OP didn't know where Allen stacks up in terms of AAV before he wrote this 

 

He's likely to fall out of the top10 this coming yr...his salary in comparison to the rest of the league should be MORE reason to spend on WR, not less

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yeah

 

I'm guessing OP didn't know where Allen stacks up in terms of AAV before he wrote this 

 

He's likely to fall out of the top10 this coming yr...his salary in comparison to the rest of the league should be MORE reason to spend on WR, not less

Yup. Also he didn’t look at the Eagles who have the 4th highest paid QB to go along with WRs who rank 1st and 6th by AAV. They haven’t won the SB since the 2017 season, but they should have in 2022 and they will compete for it again this year. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

Yup. Also he didn’t look at the Eagles who have the 4th highest paid QB to go along with WRs who rank 1st and 6th by AAV. They haven’t won the SB since the 2017 season, but they should have in 2022 and they will compete for it again this year. 

For whatever reason bills fans have a real aversion to the wideout position  in particular and basic understanding of logic in general lol

 

There was someone arguing before the draft not to take a wideout w a top10 pick...because no top10 drafted WR has won a super bowl😂😂

[Einstein's Dog]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Yup. Also he didn’t look at the Eagles who have the 4th highest paid QB to go along with WRs who rank 1st and 6th by AAV. They haven’t won the SB since the 2017 season, but they should have in 2022 and they will compete for it again this year. 

And as far as it pertains to the Bills, trading for a good WR wouldn’t necessarily mean the WR is top 5 in salary.  Metcalf is $16M and DHop is at $1M.

[BarleyNY]

17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

For whatever reason bills fans have a real aversion to the wideout position  in particular and basic understanding of logic in general lol

 

There was someone arguing before the draft not to take a wideout w a top10 pick...because no top10 drafted WR has won a super bowl😂😂

 

Job one for most fans is justifying whatever their team did as the best possible action. The stark contrast between what was done and what those fans previously wanted done notwithstanding.