Top 5 QB and Top 5 WR salary cannot coexist on a SB team

[Saint Doug]

We’re paying $28M in fake salary cap money this year. This will be gone next year. At that time and when the cap inevitably goes up, we will be able to easily afford to pay said top 5 salary cap money. So, I think this comment has about a 12 month shelf-life. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

We don't have a top5QB salary

 

It's more about cap hit. Allen's cap hit the next couple of seasons may in fact be top 5 for the position, not sure. Eagles have paid to WR's because Hurts contract hasn't kicked in yet in terms of big cap hits. 

 

Once those other QB's who signed big deals last year have their big cap hits come due, the Bills will be in a better spot. For a year or so anyway until Allen signs a new contract for the highest paid QB again before his current deal is up.

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Looking at it through Super Bowl winner's is such a narrow lens given the lucky bounces/injury luck that's required to win a Super Bowl.  Go back to 2011 (when the rookie wage scale kicked in) and give me the final four teams each season.  Off the top of my head, Falcons - Ryan and Jones.  Cardinals - Warner and Fitzgerald.  Cowboys - Romo and Bryant.  Steelers - Roethliberger and Brown.  Saints - Brees and Colston.  Packers - Rodgers and Adams.  It can be done.  You just have to spend smartly elsewhere.

like spending 15M on a safety tandem

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Before 2019 is there a receiver other than Owens who led Buffalo in receiving that wasn't drafted by Buffalo?  I'm too lazy to look it all up but I can't think of one.  Mind you I only remember back to Reed and Burkett in the late 80's.

good WRs never wanted to play in Buffalo....During the drought era, we had no QBs and good WRs didn't want to come here to play in the cold

[NoHuddleKelly12]

4 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

I think Allen can do some of that, but he's not Brady or Rodgers. Even Brady has Randy Moss, Gronk, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, etc... guys that were all-pros without Brady.  Allen needs guys that can actually catch his rockets and because of his arm he can hit passes that Brady could never have made, opening up different areas of the field, especially downfield. But with Joe Brady's dink and dunk offense and Beane's decision to not get speedier WRs, we're wasting one of Allen's talent of attacking downfield 

Brady’s QB’s have put up yards wherever he’s been— 6k yards with 60 tds at LSU taking advantage of his playmakers’ talents. I really don’t think he’s going to be calling dink and dunk all day this season, imho.

 https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/joe-brady-lsu-offense-2019-tigers-season-bills-career/d8ef858d21a37e6e45bddf74

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It's more about cap hit. Allen's cap hit the next couple of seasons may in fact be top 5 for the position, not sure. Eagles have paid to WR's because Hurts contract hasn't kicked in yet in terms of big cap hits. 

 

Once those other QB's who signed big deals last year have their big cap hits come due, the Bills will be in a better spot. For a year or so anyway until Allen signs a new contract for the highest paid QB again before his current deal is up.

It's not

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

That’s just it. I realize Bean has his plan, but don’t you think Roman Wilson at 60 is a good bet to be one of our top 4 and done a lot for the team?
 

Beane had other things prioritized higher than a second receiver. Not what I would have done. We shall see…

 

There was an article I read about a week prior to the draft that basically said drafting two WR's particularly both high is not a smart thing to do.  You end up with two players, neither of which is given enough time and TLC to develop.  Rookies take more care than a vet does.  If you push one ahead, then you end up 2 or 3 years from now not knowing if one of really has it or not.

 

Taking it one step further, having 2 rookies on a team that is still going to be good and compete for the AFC east title doesn't help the team much either.  Better off playing Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, and Kincaid and have a vet backup or two than a 2nd rookie who will struggle due to limited opportunities.

 

 

3 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Not that I don’t agree but isn’t a receiver that can consistently ‘get open’ be top 10 regardless of who the qb is?

 

You think Diggs or Hill could put up top 10 stats wit ha guy like say Zack Wilson or Mac Jones at QB?  Think there'd be a pretty big drop off.

Edited May 5 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Closest I’ve found is Stafford and Kupp.  
 

But the Rams swapped out Goff for Stafford and had plenty in place.  
 

I think the simple answer for those wondering what’s going on in the hunt for WRs like Higgins and Ayiuk are pipe dreams.  
 

You cannot build a SB roster with top WR and top QB money.  You will be depleted in areas that actually matter in winning.  
 

The trenches. 
 

That’s the fan disconnect.  However, that’s why you’re right to want to get one on a rookie deal and why it’s so vital to hit on them in the draft.  
 

 

But it appears this is a league wide approach to the cap.  Cousins is gone in Minnesota as they prepare to pay JJ.  Higgins and Aiyuk this is 100 percent the last year on their teams.  
 

Don’t be shocked if this is Goff’s last year in Detroit.  
 

Just looks like the Chiefs were ahead of the curve with Hill and we were 1 year too late with Diggs.  One of Coleman’s years had Diggs dead cap.  I don’t know how they’re are still Diggs apologists left.  

I don't know how there are McDermott apologists left.

 

Diggs caught over 100 balls and had over 1100 yards. That is going to be very difficult to replace on the cheap. 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Before 2019 is there a receiver other than Owens who led Buffalo in receiving that wasn't drafted by Buffalo?  I'm too lazy to look it all up but I can't think of one.  Mind you I only remember back to Reed and Burkett in the late 80's.

Lofton

Brown

Beasley 

Lewis

Early

 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

It's not

 

Correct. Next year he is top 3. Like i said, wasn't sure. His cap hits the next four season starting in 2025 are 3rd, 7th, 6th and 5th highest among QB's. So he'll average a top 5 cap hit in the 2025-2028 seasons as it stands now. Of course there will be restructures and extensions between all the QB's. 

Jalen Hurts cap hits the next four years are 18th, 18th, 14th and 8th highest in the league. That is how they are currently affording two highly paid WR's for the next few seasons. 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Correct. Next year he is top 3. Like i said, wasn't sure. His cap hits the next four season starting in 2025 are 3rd, 7th, 6th and 5th highest among QB's. So he'll average a top 5 cap hit in the 2025-2028 seasons as it stands now. Of course there will be restructures and extensions between all the QB's. 

Jalen Hurts cap hits the next four years are 18th, 18th, 14th and 8th highest in the league. That is how they are currently affording two highly paid WR's for the next few seasons. 

So not to be pedantic but that doesn't average a top5 cap hit either

 

And either way OP is clearly talking about this season...which is well outside the top 5 

 

Fact of the matter is Allen has never even been close to a top5 cap hit for QB

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Closest I’ve found is Stafford and Kupp.  
 

But the Rams swapped out Goff for Stafford and had plenty in place.  
 

I think the simple answer for those wondering what’s going on in the hunt for WRs like Higgins and Ayiuk are pipe dreams.  
 

You cannot build a SB roster with top WR and top QB money.  You will be depleted in areas that actually matter in winning.  
 

The trenches. 
 

That’s the fan disconnect.  However, that’s why you’re right to want to get one on a rookie deal and why it’s so vital to hit on them in the draft.  
 

 

But it appears this is a league wide approach to the cap.  Cousins is gone in Minnesota as they prepare to pay JJ.  Higgins and Aiyuk this is 100 percent the last year on their teams.  
 

Don’t be shocked if this is Goff’s last year in Detroit.  
 

Just looks like the Chiefs were ahead of the curve with Hill and we were 1 year too late with Diggs.  One of Coleman’s years had Diggs dead cap.  I don’t know how they’re are still Diggs apologists left.  

 

The Eagles just signed Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and #2 WR Davonta Smith who went to a SB

The bengals have signed Joe Burrow and about to sign Jamar Chase next season who have a SB appearnce
The Dolphins are about to sign Tua who have 1 of the highest paid WR

Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper

The rams like you said Stafford/Kupp

The Lions Goff/St.Brown

These are all playoff teasm vying for a SB, it can be done and why would it be a pipe dream?

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

You think Diggs or Hill could put up top 10 stats wit ha guy like say Zack Wilson or Mac Jones at QB?  Think there'd be a pretty big drop off.

That’s not what I said. If a receiver can consistently get open but the qb can’t get them the ball it doesn’t mean the receiver is bad. Think Zack Wilson with Garrett Wilson. With a marginal qb those open opportunities would be completed. Think Dhop with Hopkins or Kyler Murray.
 

What you said about all Allen needed was Diggs to get open and he’d get him the ball is just competent qb work is my point. Elite QBs would elevate a receiver. I.E. throw his guy open. Or make an accurate throw even if he’s cover where only the receiver has a chance at it. Those things make marginal receivers seem elite while the former make marginal QBs seem elite. That was the distinction I was making.

 

Again not saying Allen doesn’t do that. I was just making a distinction from your receivers getting open comment because it’s the offseason and I’m bored. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So not to be pedantic but that doesn't average a top5 cap hit either

 

 

Sure it does 21/4 = 5.25 rounds down to 5. I've never known anyone to round that up to 6. 

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

double down...best I can tell no position on the team will carry two rookies on the active roster, that is keeper draft choices not exposed to being cut-waved...you want one on the active roster and PS ? then I think we can find somethug come the Sept big cut, serves the same purpose but saves draft capital ?  

 

More concerned with who is going to return kicks and punts, not sure that specialist is on the roster and I dont think they trust a rook to do that.

 

Why wouldn't Hardy (CB pick) be in the running for the returner jobs? Seems like his most immediate value is clearly there. Because he's a rookie? Seems like mentally the easiest onboarding in all of NFL football, being a returner.

 

Shakir and Samuel both seem like guys who could be all right with the new kickoff structure. 

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

The Eagles just signed Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and #2 WR Davonta Smith who went to a SB

The bengals have signed Joe Burrow and about to sign Jamar Chase next season who have a SB appearnce
The Dolphins are about to sign Tua who have 1 of the highest paid WR

Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper

The rams like you said Stafford/Kupp

The Lions Goff/St.Brown

These are all playoff teasm vying for a SB, it can be done and why would it be a pipe dream?

 

Only the Rams, above, have actually won a SB. So...

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Why wouldn't Hardy (CB pick) be in the running for the returner jobs? Seems like his most immediate value is clearly there. Because he's a rookie? Seems like mentally the easiest onboarding in all of NFL football, being a returner.

 

Shakir and Samuel both seem like guys who could be all right with the new kickoff structure. 

 

 

Only the Rams, above, have actually won a SB. So...

 

 

3 out of the 5 made it to a SB... So....

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Looking at it through Super Bowl winner's is such a narrow lens given the lucky bounces/injury luck that's required to win a Super Bowl.  Go back to 2011 (when the rookie wage scale kicked in) and give me the final four teams each season.  Off the top of my head, Falcons - Ryan and Jones.  Cardinals - Warner and Fitzgerald.  Cowboys - Romo and Bryant.  Steelers - Roethliberger and Brown.  Saints - Brees and Colston.  Packers - Rodgers and Adams.  It can be done.  You just have to spend smartly elsewhere.

 

 

Yeah, it's a narrow lens. But that's no reason not to look at it that way. Just the opposite, in fact. It's precisely that narrow lens that we're trying to fit through. 

 

We made the Super Bowl four years in a row. Didn't win one. Do teams look at us to see how we did it? Hell, no. The goal is winning a Super Bowl. Of course you're going to look at how the winners did it.

 

If having a narrow lens were a problem, you wouldn't ever look at narrow lenses. And making a Super Bowl isn't much less narrow. It's just more convenient for folks who don't like the results when you only look at the winners. Same with the final four. It's less narrow, but still very narrow.

 

We already made that group you're talking about. We were a top four team in 2020. Did you feel you got to the top of the mountain?

 

If anything, looking at the final four tells you just what we need to be looking at. We've been a damn good team, extremely competitive, for years now. We need to know how to take the next step. Making the top four is NOT the goal.

 

So yeah, you're right that "it can be done," to make the top four doing that. You found, what 6 teams? There are probably more. So if six or more teams got that high but none of them made it to the mountaintop, that in itself tells you something.

 

We need to know how to differentiate ourselves from the top four into the top one. So if paying a QB and a WR both is the way into the top four but not the top one, we should be looking at finding a way to win a Lombardi, not just to get to the top four.

 

The salary cap years are over 30 years now. That's statistically signficant. How many teams in those years have paid both a QB and a WR? Now how many of those teams were competitive for a championship? 25? 50? And none of them won? That's statistically significant.

 

 

 

Edited May 5 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Closest I’ve found is Stafford and Kupp.  
 

But the Rams swapped out Goff for Stafford and had plenty in place.  ere 1 year too late with Diggs.  One of Coleman’s years had Diggs dead cap.  I don’t know how they’re are still Diggs apologists left.  

 

 

Kupp has now signed a huge 3-year $80M deal. In 2022.

 

But when they won the SB, Kupp was on a 3-year $47M deal, by no means a top five deal. Julio signed a $22M deal the same  year Kupp signed that contract. The top 11 guys were making $16.2M or more.

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/03/04/highest-paid-wide-receivers-nfl-ranking-wrs-salary-2020-season/4953433002/

 

Which made sense at the time. His first four years he put up 869, 566, 1161 and 974 yards, with respectively 5, 6, 10 and 3 TDs. He was a good receiver, but it wasn't till his Super Bowl year going 1947 with 16 TDs that he looked like a #1.

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Sure it does 21/4 = 5.25 rounds down to 5. I've never known anyone to round that up to 6. 

rounding has nothing to do w it...if you walk through 5.25 parking spaces you are in the 6th space

42 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, it's a narrow lens. But that's no reason not to look at it that way. Just the opposite, in fact. It's precisely that narrow lens that we're trying to fit through. 

 

We made the Super Bowl four years in a row. Didn't win one. Do teams look at us to see how we did it? Hell, no. The goal is winning a Super Bowl. Of course you're going to look at how the winners did it.

 

If having a narrow lens were a problem, you wouldn't ever look at narrow lenses. And making a Super Bowl isn't much less narrow. It's just more convenient for folks who don't like the results when you only look at the winners. Same with the final four. It's less narrow, but still very narrow.

 

We already made that group you're talking about. We were a top four team in 2020. Did you feel you got to the top of the mountain?

 

If anything, looking at the final four tells you just what we need to be looking at. We've been a damn good team, extremely competitive, for years now. We need to know how to take the next step. Making the top four is NOT the goal.

 

So yeah, you're right that "it can be done," to make the top four doing that. You found, what 6 teams? There are probably more. So if six or more teams got that high but none of them made it to the mountaintop, that in itself tells you something.

 

We need to know how to differentiate ourselves from the top four into the top one. So if paying a QB and a WR both is the way into the top four but not the top one, we should be looking at finding a way to win a Lombardi, not just to get to the top four.

 

The salary cap years are over 30 years now. That's statistically signficant. How many teams in those years have paid both a QB and a WR? Now how many of those teams were competitive for a championship? 25? 50? And none of them won? That's statistically significant.

 

 

 

its meaningless because, among other things, top 5 is a completely arbitrary cutoff

 

super bowl 50 featured the 6th highest QB cap hit in Manning and the 3rd highest cap hit at WR in Demaryius Thomas

 

 

Edited May 5 by GoBills808

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

So yeah, you're right that "it can be done," to make the top four doing that. You found, what 6 teams? There are probably more. So if six or more teams got that high but none of them made it to the mountaintop, that in itself tells you something.

Just off the top of my head as I'm sure there's more.  The premise that you can't win a Super Bowl if you're paying a QB and a WR top 5 money at the position just because it hasn't been done lately is ludicrous imo.  

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Just off the top of my head as I'm sure there's more.  The premise that you can't win a Super Bowl if you're paying a QB and a WR top 5 money at the position just because it hasn't been done lately is ludicrous imo.  

 

 

Well, yeah, that is indeed a ridiculous premise.

 

I'd argue that he was exaggerating a bit in the headline, but has an excellent point. Saying it can't be done is indeed likely over the top.

 

Many of us are saying that winning in those circumstances appears to be much less likely. And that paying both a top 5 QB and a top 5 WR is maybe not such a great use of money. That's an entirely reasonable argument.

 

And yeah, as I said, I'm sure you are right there are more. Which just makes the point stronger. The fact there are quite a few teams that tried this strategy who made the top four, the fact that none then won is significant.

 

Have a great Sunday, Doc.

 

 

Edited May 5 by Thurman#1