Is it true the Bills didn’t “do enough” at WR to compete for championships?

[BADOLBILZ]

42 minutes ago, transient said:

I think the Chiefs the last 2 years have been a bit of an anomaly in that Kelce and Mahomes have been able to overcome an otherwise lackluster WR room. Without their defense last season they would have been a sub 0.500 team. 

 

Personally, I don't think the Bills came into the offseason intending to trade Diggs, I think something forced their hands insofar as if they didn't do it NOW he would have lost all value to them on the field in 2024 and as a trade chip next offseason. I think this WR room with Diggs would have been fine, even if Brady only used Diggs to draw coverage away from other receiving options, and I think the plan would then have been to replace him next offseason.

 

Unfortunately, the Bills are going into 2024 with a Diggs size hole in their roster.  I'm personally not down on them for not drafting more WRs in this draft. If they didn't have a 1st or 2nd round grade on someone and/or think they could contribute THIS season, with so many holes elsewhere on the roster, drafting someone they didn't believe in for the sake of shutting the fans up would have made things worse.

 

I do think the WR corps is more well-rounded at the bottom of the group than in past seasons but given the lack of talent at the top of the roster I think this is destined to be a down year on offense. I think those assuming Shakir will make this meteoric rise to replace Diggs are going to be met with the same disappointment we had when Davis continued to prove he was not a legitimate WR2 when/if he's asked to draw the coverage Diggs used to.

 

Like it or not, I think they're going to have to be more deliberate on offense and bleed the clock to some degree. I think Brady is going to have to be creative and use the talent at hand to the best of their ability. And I think it's going to be ugly for the first half of the season at least. This is obviously not going to be the most complete or deepest team of the Allen era. Hopefully they can put together a gritty, successful season despite that. I'm expecting a lot of white knuckle football this season.

 

What do I know, though. Maybe their intent is instead of beating coverage in 2024 they'll just run them over at the line and WRs will be running free all over the field...

 

 

Not only an anomaly..........the Chiefs lack of multiple stud WR was not a strategy but an unfortunate result of missing on some picks.

 

In 2022 they expended two day 2 picks on Sky Moore and Hilarious Toney to go along with signing Juju Smith Schuster(a one time 1400 yard producer).   Moore and Toney famously made big plays in the Super Bowl but have otherwise been busts in KC.

 

They followed that up with Rashee Rice........who panned out and effectively replaced Juju Smith Schuster as their WR1.      

 

But also of note...........the Chiefs DID have two top 32 receiving yardage players(in a 32 team league) in both 2022 and 2023.    

 

Because Kelce is a stud and Juju and Rice finished 24th and 32nd, respectively(with Rice trending up at the end).

 

To put that into perspective........only 5 other teams had 2 top 32 producing receivers in 2022 and 5 again in 2023.

 

So they weren't exactly the little sisters of the poor in terms of matching up in the pass game the way that some like to paint it.

[HappyDays]

What is happening on this board? Does anyone remember that we had these exact conversations almost word for word last year, when the Bills WRs corps undeniably looked better than it does today? And now we're just going to trudge along pretending those discussions didn't happen and were definitively proven correct on the side of those that thought the group wasn't good enough?

 

Allow me to re-enact the discussion. D̶e̶a̶n̶d̶r̶e̶ H̶o̶p̶k̶i̶n̶s̶ OBJ is washed and we don't need him. T̶r̶e̶n̶t̶ S̶h̶e̶r̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶ Mack Hollins is a better WR than people think. D̶e̶o̶n̶t̶e̶ H̶a̶r̶t̶y̶ KJ Hamler is an X-factor if healthy and focused. A̶n̶d̶y̶ I̶s̶a̶b̶e̶l̶l̶a̶ Chase Claypool has been stuck with bad QBs, we can unlock his talent. And don't forget about J̶u̶s̶t̶i̶n̶ S̶h̶o̶r̶t̶e̶r̶ Justin Shorter.

 

And this year we don't even have a true #1 WR we can fall back on. Several best case scenarios regarding player development would have to come to fruition for this offense to even match the talent we had last year, let alone surpass it.

 

The group that wasn't good enough last year is undeniably even worse this year, and the same people that defended it last year are repeating the same arguments from a worse position. Make it stop.

 

Our one hope is that Beane executes a trade for a legitimate outside WR after June 1 or perhaps at the trade deadline. Maybe that's the plan all along.

 

If instead the plan is to re-tool and coast through the year with lowered expectations, they should have at least added two WRs high in the draft. Watching two young studs grow on the field with Allen would have made a down year still exciting to watch, and given us something to really look forward to in 2025. Instead I fear that the regime has learned nothing and will continue surrounding their franchise QB with a just-not-quite-good-enough (or worse) supporting cast.

 

Edited May 4 by HappyDays

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

So on paper KC’s weapons have been meh the last two years but they’ve won it all due in large to their qb. 

 

I'll keep repeating this point until it sinks in - The Chiefs offense was shut out in the 2nd half of the AFCCG and the 1st half of the Super Bowl. This is not something for the Bills to aspire to. We don't have the defensive coaching or personnel to turn that kind of offensive production into a Super Bowl win.

[eball]

This board really does crack me up.  The Bills’ projected top 4 WR of Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, and Hollins (I love the people sleeping on him) is as good as we’ve had here in some time.  NOBODY with a brain thinks the 8 guys they have brought in to compete for spots #5 and 6 are making a difference in any way besides special teams.  Add a blue chipper in Kincaid, along with Cook, Knox, and Ray Davis, and there is absolutely NO reason to think this team doesn’t have an offense capable of scoring almost at will.

 

The Bills’ top 5 projected “pass catchers” going into this season easily rival any of the teams I mentioned, save SF.

 

Some of you just love to complain.

 

[julian]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll keep repeating this point until it sinks in - The Chiefs offense was shut out in the 2nd half of the AFCCG and the 1st half of the Super Bowl. This is not something for the Bills to aspire to. We don't have the defensive coaching or personnel to turn that kind of offensive production into a Super Bowl win.

Yeah there defense has been a major reason for their success, of course with Mahomes Kelce and Reid, this goes mostly unspoken.

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, eball said:

This board really does crack me up.  The Bills’ projected top 4 WR of Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, and Hollins (I love the people sleeping on him) is as good as we’ve had here in some time.  NOBODY with a brain thinks the 8 guys they have brought in to compete for spots #5 and 6 are making a difference in any way besides special teams.  Add a blue chipper in Kincaid, along with Cook, Knox, and Ray Davis, and there is absolutely NO reason to think this team doesn’t have an offense capable of scoring almost at will.

 

The Bills’ top 5 projected “pass catchers” going into this season easily rival any of the teams I mentioned, save SF.

 

Some of you just love to complain.

 

This is a cry for help.

[90sBills]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll keep repeating this point until it sinks in - The Chiefs offense was shut out in the 2nd half of the AFCCG and the 1st half of the Super Bowl. This is not something for the Bills to aspire to. We don't have the defensive coaching or personnel to turn that kind of offensive production into a Super Bowl win.

Yet they won. But you’re right. They had a great defense that carried them through offensive lulls this past season. What about the Superbowl they won the year before when their defense gave up 35 points in that game? KC’s best attribute is doing just enough to get the job done. Whether it’s offense, defense, ST. It’s a team game afterall. Now that’s an aspiration the Bills can get on board with imo. 

[BeastMaster]

13 minutes ago, eball said:

This board really does crack me up.  The Bills’ projected top 4 WR of Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, and Hollins (I love the people sleeping on him) is as good as we’ve had here in some time.  NOBODY with a brain thinks the 8 guys they have brought in to compete for spots #5 and 6 are making a difference in any way besides special teams.  Add a blue chipper in Kincaid, along with Cook, Knox, and Ray Davis, and there is absolutely NO reason to think this team doesn’t have an offense capable of scoring almost at will.

 

The Bills’ top 5 projected “pass catchers” going into this season easily rival any of the teams I mentioned, save SF.

 

Some of you just love to complain.

 

I get the skepticism and doubt, and I think it's completely reasonable and justified if you feel that way

 

But, to me...I already saw what a Stefon Diggs could do for us and it was fading down the stretch and washed in the playoffs. Davis was a drop machine that couldn't get on the same page as Allen and led to bad misses/turnovers. It was time to move on from those guys.

 

They have chosen to not go the alpha WR route this season, and they instead got a more capable unit of guys that could contribute beyond the first and sometimes second or third option and are now deeper with capable wideouts that can be relied upon to do their part.

 

I wanna see Josh play within an offense where he's not feeling pressure to find certain players or take shots to a guy who he isn't in synch with. This may help him grow even more, and if after this season they see a glaring need for a top wideout they will aquire one given the draft capital and cap space we will have.

 

If Coleman hits, then we may not have much of a need...but that has yet to be seen.

[eball]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This is a cry for help.

 

Nah, just a guy having fun.  Sorry that is so foreign to you!

[Rocky Landing]

6 hours ago, eball said:

It has been repeated so often how the Bills are “in trouble” at WR because of Beane’s supposed mismanagement of the roster and the losses of Diggs and Davis, that I finally started really looking at what is going on around the league.  I started with the four teams who made the conference championships last season, and who they got there with:  KC, Baltimore, Detroit, and SF.  SF is sort of an anomaly because they are loaded at the skill positions — perhaps the best group in the league.

 

But the other three — a completely different story.

 

Last season:

KC:  Kelce, Rice, Pacheco, and…?

BAL:  Andrews, Flowers, Edwards, OBJ, and…?

DET:  St. Brown, LaPorta, Reynolds, Gibbs, and…?

 

Notice something about all three?  The TE may be the best receiver on the team, and their WR rooms are anything other than “loaded.”

 

The Bills will roll out Kincaid, Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, and Cook…aside from the unknown that is Coleman, this is a group one could very easily argue is more talented than what those other teams put on the field last season while getting to their conference championships.

 

Agree?  Disagree?

 

 

 

Regarding TE, it's not just Kincaid. The one-two punch of Kincaid, and Knox is one of the best (if not the best) TE duos in the league, and while Knox may not have the hands, or route ability of Kincaid, his YAC is damned good-- downright violent. He put the work in to clean up his drop issues, and he's a clutch player, who doesn't choke in the big moments. 

[FireChans]

23 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Nah, just a guy having fun.  Sorry that is so foreign to you!

I have fun too. My definition of fun does not include deluding myself that this group is “better pass catchers than we’ve had in a long time.”

[stevestojan]

 

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Nah, just a guy having fun.  Sorry that is so foreign to you!

 

What's seems clear is that you got into that peanut butter whiskey early today for some reason.   Did your tee time get cancelled?

 

Calling a 1500 yard receiver in St Brown "just a slot receiver"?    Comparing a WR group you headline with 2023 658 yard college receiver Keon Coleman to groups that had studs like Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Sanders?    You specialize in takes that don't age well but you cut right to the chase today.   DOA. 

 

I put the emoji's in especially for you because I know you love em'.

[Logic]

The comment that Bills fans are "sleeping on" 7th year receiver Mack Hollins -- whose career high in single season receiving yards was 690 but who has had 250 yards or less in every other season of his career -- is kind of this debate in a nutshell.

There's objective reality: Mack Hollins has been a very average, replacement level receiver his whole career, and has exceeded 300 yards in a season just once.
Then there's hopium: Y'all are sleeping on him! Watch what he does with a real QB!

It's the same with Hamler, with Claypool, Cephus, etc, etc.

After two straight years of "we need to get Josh more weapons", the Bills have gotten WORSE at WR. It's telling that any time someone wants to argue that the Bills offense is in good shape personnel wise, they immediately start talking about tight ends and running backs. Why? Because the wide receiver room isn't good enough.

The strategy at WR beyond "hope Coleman gets up to speed quickly", "hope Shakir breaks out", "Hope Curtis Samuel posts a career high in receiving yards" -- you'll notice the common denominator with the top three receivers is "hope", already not a promising start -- seems to be "hope that one of the average JAGs we sign exceeds expectations and suddenly plays good football". There again, a big dose of "let's hope". Hope is not a strategy.

And all of this is even assuming that the top three guys stay healthy. If Coleman or Samuel suffers any kind of long term injury, God help us. Hope you're ready to see Mack Hollins or Quintez Cephus be our WR2 in a pivotal divisional matchup.

Look...some of the most consistently optimistic, kool-aid drinking members on this forum -- myself included -- feel super down about the WR room right now. Why do you think that is? Did we all suddenly turn into negative Nellie curmudgeons over night? Or could it be that we're reading the tea leaves and recognizing that our front. office seems to be in Groundhog Day mode, YET AGAIN failing to give our franchise QB adequate help?

 

[JoshAllin]

Josh has the experience now to make any of the receivers special, so I feel the bills are fine at wr right now

[ColoradoBills]

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

The comment that Bills fans are "sleeping on" 7th year receiver Mack Hollins -- whose career high in single season receiving yards was 690 but who has had 250 yards or less in every other season of his career -- is kind of this debate in a nutshell.

There's objective reality: Mack Hollins has been a very average, replacement level receiver his whole career, and has exceeded 300 yards in a season just once.
Then there's hopium: Y'all are sleeping on him! Watch what he does with a real QB!

 

I think it's realistic to assume that Hollins will be WR4 at best.  I can see a scenario where he is beat out in camp and relegated to WR5.

In those roles he will be behind the top 3 WRs along with a minimum of Cook and Kincaid and maybe behind Knox.

Even as a WR4 he will be probably getting #7 pass catcher targets.  250-300 yards and 2-3 TDs would be fine with me in that role.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I keep saying that I'm going to do a breakdown that I never have time for, but the upshot is this: regardless of his roots, Brady showed a bunch of Shanahan play designs, specifically some of his mesh concepts and condensed formations. Condensed formations were also used in Detroit with Ben Johnson.

 

What are the unique assets the Bills have on offense that most of the league doesn't?

-Electruc run/receiving threat in James Cook. There were only three 1000 yard rushers with 400 yards passing in 2023 and two of them are Cook and CMC

-Versatile outside, slot, backfield WR. Curtis in the poor man's Deebo

-one of the better FBs in the league in Gilliam, when many teams have stopped using a full time one. 

 

Add in a developing Kincaid and an ok Knox, fold in Coleman and Davis and I think the Bills can make an offense that will batter the teams that have been getting lighter to defend the pass

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I keep saying that I'm going to do a breakdown that I never have time for, but the upshot is this: regardless of his roots, Brady showed a bunch of Shanahan play designs, specifically some of his mesh concepts and condensed formations. Condensed formations were also used in Detroit with Ben Johnson.

 

What are the unique assets the Bills have on offense that most of the league doesn't?

-Electruc run/receiving threat in James Cook. There were only three 1000 yard rushers with 400 yards passing in 2023 and two of them are Cook and CMC

-Versatile outside, slot, backfield WR. Curtis in the poor man's Deebo

-one of the better FBs in the league in Gilliam, when many teams have stopped using a full time one. 

 

Add in a developing Kincaid and an ok Knox, fold in Coleman and Davis and I think the Bills can make an offense that will batter the teams that have been getting lighter to defend the pass

This is a legitimately interesting argument, and I am not dismissing it. It could work.

I think most folks who are apprehensive about the WR room are open to a conceptual change on offense.

You can do that and still have a significantly better WR room than we currently have.

 

As you and I just stated in one of these hydra-like threads, it would be excellent if acquiring Aiyuk post 6/1 is part of the plan. Then those of us who tend to be happy warriors could migrate back to our normal tribal temperaments.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

Regarding TE, it's not just Kincaid. The one-two punch of Kincaid, and Knox is one of the best (if not the best) TE duos in the league, and while Knox may not have the hands, or route ability of Kincaid, his YAC is damned good-- downright violent. He put the work in to clean up his drop issues, and he's a clutch player, who doesn't choke in the big moments. 

 

Knox not only missed time with the broken wrist/surgery, but when he came back you just know he wasn’t 100% in the run game or the pass game for a while. I love our TE group. 

 

 

.

Edited May 4 by Augie

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I keep saying that I'm going to do a breakdown that I never have time for, but the upshot is this: regardless of his roots, Brady showed a bunch of Shanahan play designs, specifically some of his mesh concepts and condensed formations. Condensed formations were also used in Detroit with Ben Johnson.

 

What are the unique assets the Bills have on offense that most of the league doesn't?

-Electruc run/receiving threat in James Cook. There were only three 1000 yard rushers with 400 yards passing in 2023 and two of them are Cook and CMC

-Versatile outside, slot, backfield WR. Curtis in the poor man's Deebo

-one of the better FBs in the league in Gilliam, when many teams have stopped using a full time one. 

 

Add in a developing Kincaid and an ok Knox, fold in Coleman and Davis and I think the Bills can make an offense that will batter the teams that have been getting lighter to defend the pass

 

If Brady proves he is close to the offensive genius that is Kyle Shanahan, I agree the group of weapons inherently looks a lot better, especially since we have Allen not Purdy. I'm just not convinced Brady is close to that level. I'll say this though, I have more confidence that Brady - with a full offseason to install his own offense and coming off a couple years of NFL OC experience - will raise his coaching prowess substantially, than I do that say Mack Hollins will suddenly turn into a starting caliber outside WR.

 

But like I said above we are talking about a LOT of best case scenario outcomes that need to come true for this offense to be at a championship level. Something like Brady proves he is a top 5 coach, Kincaid proves capable of being a #1 target, Coleman hits the ground running, Shakir proves he can take on like a 60% increase in his target share with a much smaller relative decrease to his target efficiency, and everyone on the OL stays healthy and plays the best football of their careers.

 

I wish that instead of betting on several best case scenarios we had instead made it the priority of the offseason to over-invest in the offense because throwing a lot of talent at the problem would have been the easiest route to success. As it stands I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a post-6/1 or trade deadline addition of a legit talent. Otherwise the most likely outcome is that the offense is a bit of slog this year, we perform even worse in the playoffs than usual, and we enter 2025 still needing one major investment to take the offense to a championship level.