Athletic article - comments from NFL people on AFC draft classes

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

can you move the goal posts if you said exactly the same thing you said initially?

 

Tough scene. If you had only read the posts you responded to, it would’ve saved you so much time looking foolish lmao. What a waste.

 

Maybe next time I’ll do an @Alphadawg7 edit where I bold things so you can follow along better. Gotta appeal to the lowest common denominator of reading comprehension. 

You’ve been railing on Beane all off season about WRs and not giving Josh enough weapons.  Stop acting like this is anything other than that.  

[dave mcbride]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And stop moving the goal post.  You’ve been whining about Beane not giving Josh enough weapons in terms of the WR issue all off season, during the draft, and since.  
 

No one is dumb enough to believe your whole rant is about WR contracts now and not about “Beane not doing enough for Josh”.  You spin nonsense more than politicians.

 

The depths you will go to try and salvage something you got smashed on is both hilarious and impressive at the same time.  You should consider politics though lol

It would seem to me that the difference between even elite tight ends and elite WRs (especially X receivers) is in ypr. There is the rare case of a Gronk averaging 14-16 yards per reception, but he's the best TE in NFL history (IMO) and a true unicorn: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GronRo00.htm. Kittle is the closest I can think of (13.6 lifetime). Most of the really good ones are in the 11-12 ypr range (Kelce is 12.5 lifetime, which is incredibly good for a TE; Tony Gonzalez is 11.4 and Jay Novacek 11.0). Most are below that, even the good ones (Hockenson is 10.4, for instance). Conversely, Mike Evans is lifetime 15.3, meaning he gives you deep threat capability that really opens up an offense. That sort of productivity in ypr is unique the WR position, particularly the X role. WRs almost always lead the league in ypr. Last year, 43 of the top 44 players in ypr were receivers: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving.htm#receiving::rec_yds_per_rec. Kittle was the lone TE, finishing 12th.

 

Point is, they are different positions with different types of productivity, and having a deep threat is really helpful to an offense. Most TEs aren't deep threats, and as of now the Bills don't have a real deep threat because none of their receivers fit the role. Maybe Coleman will be that guy, but he's a little slow. So I'm skeptical. Hope I'm proven wrong.

 

 

 

Edited May 7 by dave mcbride

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

You’ve been railing on Beane all off season about WRs and not giving Josh enough weapons.  Stop acting like this is anything other than that.  

Ahem, I think this is what we call “moving the goal posts.”

 

”I didn’t mean the posts I’ve been furiously responding to for the last 24 hours! I meant the other posts…. somewhere…… I swear!”

 

Game over my friend

Edited May 7 by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Not to get in the middle here but are you saying you're satisfied w how this FO has supported the offense and Allen in particular overall?

No, I said it’s a lie to say the Chiefs invested in the draft more than the Bills did to help get Josh more help to throw to.  
 

Bills not only invested the same early picks, but also used those picks a lot better.  
 

@FireChanswants to cherry pick the “WR” position only so he can ignore Kincaid as if he wasn’t drafted to be a receiving weapon for Josh.  He said the Bills had not used early draft picks on a WR in 7 years since Zay Jones.  Also a lie as we used our first to get Diggs.  
 

Facts are we have used 2 firsts and a second which was actually our first until we did a 1 pick trade down.  So really Bills have used 3 firsts essentially on receiving weapons for Josh in the past 5 years.  
 

@FireChansand his unbelievably inaccurate boast of we haven’t invested high draft picks since Zay Jones is one of the most absurd statements I’ve seen all off season, and that’s saying a lot around here.  
 

He’s trying desperately now to spin just how bad that take was though, as usual.

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

It would seem to me that the difference between even elite tight ends and elite WRs (especially X receivers) is in ypr. There is the rare case of a Gronk averaging 14-16 yards per reception, but he's the best TE in NFL history (IMO) and a true unicorn: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GronRo00.htm. Kittle is the closest I can think of (13.6 lifetime). Most of the really good ones are in the 11-12 ypr range (Kelce is 12.5 lifetime, which is incredibly good for a TE; Tony Gonzalez is 11.4 and Jay Novacek 11.0). Most are below that, even the good ones (Hockenson is 10.4, for instance). Conversely, Mike Evans is lifetime 15.3, meaning he gives you deep threat capability that really opens up an offense. That sort of productivity in ypr is unique the WR position, particularly the X role. WRs almost always lead the league in ypr. Last year, 43 of the top 44 players in ypr were receivers: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving.htm#receiving::rec_yds_per_rec. Kittle was the lone TE, finishing 12th.

 

Point is, they are different positions with different types of productivity, and having a deep threat is really helpful to an offense. Most TEs aren't deep threats, and as of now the Bills don't have a real deep threat because none of their receivers fit the role. Maybe Coleman will be that guy, but he's a little slow. So I'm skeptical. Hope I'm proven wrong.

 

 

 

I tend to think there's intangible value in the very top TEs that goes unaccounted in their ability to 1- be a read often in MoF 2- usually be mismatched vs LB or DB and 3- possess the physical tools that present QB friendly target

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

No, I said it’s a lie to say the Chiefs invested in the draft more than the Bills did to help get Josh more help to throw to.  
 

Bills not only invested the same early picks, but also used those picks a lot better.  
 

@FireChanswants to cherry pick the “WR” position only so he can ignore Kincaid as if he wasn’t drafted to be a receiving weapon for Josh.  He said the Bills had not used early draft picks on a WR in 7 years since Zay Jones.  Also a lie as we used our first to get Diggs.  
 

Facts are we have used 2 firsts and a second which was actually our first until we did a 1 pick trade down.  So really Bills have used 3 firsts essentially on receiving weapons for Josh in the past 5 years.  
 

@FireChansand his unbelievably inaccurate boast of we haven’t invested high draft picks since Zay Jones is one of the most absurd statements I’ve seen all off season, and that’s saying a lot around here.  
 

He’s trying desperately now to spin just how bad that take was though, as usual.

 

OK, I would argue against some of this but at least I understand what you guys are disagreeing over lol

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I said it’s a lie to say the Chiefs invested in the draft more than the Bills did to help get Josh more help to throw to.  

Who lied? Quote where this was said.

 

 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

@FireChansand his unbelievably inaccurate boast of we haven’t invested high draft picks since Zay Jones 

Quote where this was said.

 

Sorry @GoBills808, not sure why it quoted you. I’m asking @Alphadawg7

Edited May 7 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

i didnt say that lol

[DapperCam]

On 5/5/2024 at 11:06 AM, Rubes said:

There's something to be said about an offense that runs the ball well enough to force a safety into the box, opening up much more of the passing game. I think Brady understood that last year, and it worked reasonably well. We'll see if that's the plan this year.

 

Another aspect is play action. Allen is an elite play action QB, and it’s even more effective when handing off is a legit option.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Another aspect is play action. Allen is an elite play action QB, and it’s even more effective when handing off is a legit option.

very little relationship between quality of your run game and effectiveness of your playaction

Edited May 7 by GoBills808
left out word

[FireChans]

31 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Who lied? Quote where this was said.

 

 

Quote where this was said.

 

Sorry @GoBills808, not sure why it quoted you. I’m asking @Alphadawg7

Poor @Alphadawg7 he’s gonna be looking all day for these posts.

 

I’ll help you out man. They don’t exist. You’re arguing with the voices in your head.

[HaldimandBills]

For what its worth Around the NFL podcast labeled the Bills receivers room as the biggest head scratcher position group going into the season. Ravens as well. The group is unsure what Beanes ultimate plan at receiver is and wondering why Beane hasn't done more to help their franchise QB? This isn't just a sector of Bills Mafia who are questioning Beane. They also believe that Beane has always left the receiver room kinda barren outside that 2021 season when you had Emmanuel Sanders, Beasley, and Gabe Davis with Diggs. 

 

I do wonder if Diggs forced this issue and caught Beane off guard. Unacceptable by Beane if true. I think Beane was planning on a receiver room of Diggs, Coleman, Samuel, Shakir and Hollins. 

[Alphadawg7]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Poor @Alphadawg7 he’s gonna be looking all day for these posts.

 

I’ll help you out man. They don’t exist. You’re arguing with the voices in your head.

 

Lol, you’ve been all over the place in this thread.  And I’m pretty over the convo TBH at this point and was gonna move on with my day.  But since you so badly want to keep going in circles…

 

Why don’t you pick up all your pieces and state your actual point.  So far you said things such taking a RB in the 2nd round is a mistake, which means by your words Cook was a mistake.  You claimed Bills used a day 2 pick on Davis who was a Day 3 pick.  You said Chiefs have done more in draft to help Mahomes with receivers and then try and cherry pick ways to make that appear true.  You said kincaid doesn’t count as a receiving weapon yet basically because he’s not yet equal to the GOAT Kelce, and so on and so on.
 

So what is actually your point then? 

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:

For what its worth Around the NFL podcast labeled the Bills receivers room as the biggest head scratcher position group going into the season. Ravens as well. The group is unsure what Beanes ultimate plan at receiver is and wondering why Beane hasn't done more to help their franchise QB? This isn't just a sector of Bills Mafia who are questioning Beane. They also believe that Beane has always left the receiver room kinda barren outside that 2021 season when you had Emmanuel Sanders, Beasley, and Gabe Davis with Diggs. 

 

I do wonder if Diggs forced this issue and caught Beane off guard. Unacceptable by Beane if true. I think Beane was planning on a receiver room of Diggs, Coleman, Samuel, Shakir and Hollins. 

Beane did say he told Josh that it was possible Diggs could get traded ahead of their actually being a trade in place.  Based on the way Beane has spoken about it and what’s come out, I think Beane was open to trading him but only if the deal made sense.  And it sounds like Beane may have given Diggs team permission to see if they could find a trade that made sense, so Diggs probably made clear he preferred to be traded.  
 

But I’m confident that all happened this offseason in terms of really considering trading Diggs.  So wouldn’t have left Beane time to prepare for that ahead of time.  
 

But I do still think it will prove to be addition by subtraction between both Diggs and Davis done for how this offense best functions.  But no surprise people on the outside don’t see it like that.  They don’t see Diggs never having a good postseason in 4 years here…or him disappearing 2 years straight in 2nd half of season, just his season totals.  They don’t see Davis limitations and frequent disappearing acts, just his season end totals.

 

So I get the doubt or question marks, but I personally think our offense will better overall than in 2023, more efficient, and more consistent personally.

[hondo in seattle]

On 5/3/2024 at 7:27 AM, Logic said:

Thanks.

I always love the "comments from league execs and coaches" articles. They're awesome.

Unfortunately, the comments about Coleman and Worthy match my own feelings. And the statement "there is now a big difference in the amount of speed around Mahomes and the amount of speed around Josh Allen". Yep. Not great, Bob. 

 

Do "execs and coaches" include the Dolphins comptroller?  The Dallas strength and conditioning coach?   Seattle's scout for the Pacific Northwest?  

 

I like the idea of Sando soliciting opinions from subject matter experts.  I just wish I knew who the sources were.  I don't really care what San Francisco's DC, for example, thinks about Coleman because I doubt if he knows more about him than Kiper.  Or the folks on TBD, for that matter.  

 

Does Sando tell us any more about his sources so we can have some sense of the quality of their opinions?   If they're all GMs, assistant GMs, and national scouts, their evaluations would be valuable.  Otherwise, I question their worthiness.  

 

Edited May 7 by hondo in seattle

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol, you’ve been all over the place in this thread.  And I’m pretty over the convo TBH at this point and was gonna move on with my day.  But since you so badly want to keep going in circles…

 

Why don’t you pick up all your pieces and state your actual point.  So far you said things such taking a RB in the 2nd round is a mistake, which means by your words Cook was a mistake.  You claimed Bills used a day 2 pick on Davis who was a Day 3 pick.  You said Chiefs have done more in draft to help Mahomes with receivers and then try and cherry pick ways to make that appear true.  You said kincaid doesn’t count as a receiving weapon yet basically because he’s not yet equal to the GOAT Kelce, and so on and so on.
 

So what is actually your point then?

my man, you aren’t “over the conversation,” you just know that I trumped you misrepresenting pretty much everything I said. You called me a liar, but can’t demonstrate where I lied, because it’s a complete fabrication from you lol. I appreciate your attempt to try to save face but it’s not gonna happen like that lmao. 
 

The point is that I think Brandon Beane overvalues RB’s and under values WR’s. 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

my man, you aren’t “over the conversation,” you just know that I trumped you misrepresenting pretty much everything I said. You called me a liar, but can’t demonstrate where I lied, because it’s a complete fabrication from you lol. I appreciate your attempt to try to save face but it’s not gonna happen like that lmao. 
 

The point is that I think Brandon Beane overvalues RB’s and under values WR’s. 

 

Yet Beane has used essentially what began as 3 first round picks on receiving weapons for Josh in the past 5 drafts.  Diggs, Kincaid, and Coleman which was our first until he swapped one pick back, but it was essentially our first.  And don't bother with the weak attempt to remove Kincaid from that list, he was drafted to primarily be a receiver for Josh, not be a traditional TE.  

 

So how has Beane shown to overvalue RB's over receivers for Josh and under valued receiving for Josh?  Draft:  Beane has spent not only those picks above, but also threw in two 4ths as well in the trades to get Diggs and Kincaid.  He also used a 5th on Shakir, and a 4th on Davis.  At RB:  He used a 2nd on cook, two thirds on Devin and Moss, and a 4th now on Davis.  Hmmmm...much more on receivers than RB's.  How about FA?  Well he went out and got quite a few more WR's than RB's in guys like Brown, Cole, Sanders, Samuel, etc.  While he has done very little at RB in free agency despite there being a lot of available RB's over the past 5 years.  

 

The funniest part of this new take of yours (besides that it suddenly doesn't involve the Chiefs who used a first round pick on a RB and used less premium draft capital on receiving help), is that the biggest gripe about the Bills offense under Daboll and then Dorsey was that we couldn't run the ball and we needed to be able to run the ball to take pressure off Josh.  Now in 2023 we finally run the ball, the team finally starts winning by doing so, and now you are saying Beane suddenly overvalues RB's and under values receivers even though neither his draft investments or free agent spending suggests that.  

 

Got it.  Good talk.

Edited May 7 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yet Beane has used essentially what began as 3 first round picks on receiving weapons for Josh in the past 5 drafts.  Diggs, Kincaid, and Coleman which was our first until he swapped one pick back, but it was essentially our first.  And don't bother with the weak attempt to remove Kincaid from that list, he was drafted to primarily be a receiver for Josh, not be a traditional TE.  

 

So how has Beane shown to overvalue RB's over receivers for Josh and under valued receiving for Josh?  Draft:  Beane has spent not only those picks above, but also threw in two 4ths as well in the trades to get Diggs and Kincaid.  He also used a 5th on Shakir, and a 4th on Davis.  At RB:  He used a 2nd on cook, two thirds on Devin and Moss, and a 4th now on Davis.  Hmmmm...much more on receivers than RB's.  How about FA?  Well he went out and got quite a few more WR's than RB's in guys like Brown, Cole, Sanders, Samuel, etc.  While he has done very little at RB in free agency despite there being a lot of available RB's over the past 5 years.  

 

The funniest part of this new take of yours (besides that it suddenly doesn't involve the Chiefs who used a first round pick on a RB and used less premium draft capital on receiving help), is that the biggest gripe about the Bills offense under Daboll and then Dorsey was that we couldn't run the ball and we needed to be able to run the ball to take pressure off Josh.  Now in 2023 we finally run the ball, the team finally starts winning by doing so, and now you are saying Beane suddenly overvalues RB's and under values receivers even though neither his draft investments or free agent spending suggests that.  

 

Got it.  Good talk.

TE’s aren’t paid like WR’s.

[Billl]

30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Beane did say he told Josh that it was possible Diggs could get traded ahead of their actually being a trade in place.  Based on the way Beane has spoken about it and what’s come out, I think Beane was open to trading him but only if the deal made sense.  And it sounds like Beane may have given Diggs team permission to see if they could find a trade that made sense, so Diggs probably made clear he preferred to be traded.  
 

But I’m confident that all happened this offseason in terms of really considering trading Diggs.  So wouldn’t have left Beane time to prepare for that ahead of time.  
 

But I do still think it will prove to be addition by subtraction between both Diggs and Davis done for how this offense best functions.  But no surprise people on the outside don’t see it like that.  They don’t see Diggs never having a good postseason in 4 years here…or him disappearing 2 years straight in 2nd half of season, just his season totals.  They don’t see Davis limitations and frequent disappearing acts, just his season end totals.

 

So I get the doubt or question marks, but I personally think our offense will better overall than in 2023, more efficient, and more consistent personally.

It’s going to take a LOT of addition to offset 2000 yards, 15 TDs, and $30 million of cap space worth of subtraction. 

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

TE’s aren’t paid like WR’s.

 

Who cares.  TE's can help you win Super Bowls, just ask the Chiefs, Pats, etc.  

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s going to take a LOT of addition to offset 2000 yards, 15 TDs, and $30 million of cap space worth of subtraction. 

 

Is it really though? 

 

Means Kincaid and Shakir will get more targets, both had a substantially better catch rate than Diggs and Davis.  Samuel is here to take some as well and Coleman will get a nice chunk.  Spreading out 2000 yards over 4 players is just 500 yards each.  

 

Reality is Shakir gets 300-500 more yards...Kincaid probably 200-300 more yards.  Coleman probably gets 700-900 yards and Samuel probably 600-800 of those yards.  Even if you take the lowest of those ranges, its over 2000 yards.  And Coleman I would bet gets at least 8 of those TD's and Kincaid and Shakir should see a bump too.  

 

 

Edited May 7 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Who cares.  TE's can help you win Super Bowls, just ask the Chiefs, Pats, etc.  

 

Is it really though? 

 

Means Kincaid and Shakir will get more targets, both had a substantially better catch rate than Diggs and Davis.  Samuel is here to take some as well and Coleman will get a nice chunk.  Spreading out 2000 yards over 4 players is just 500 yards each.  

 

Reality is Shakir gets 300-500 more yards...Kincaid probably 200-300 more yards.  Coleman probably gets 700-900 yards and Samuel probably 600-800 of those yards.  Even if you take the lowest of those ranges, its over 2000 yards.  And Coleman I would bet gets at least 8 of those TD's and Kincaid and Shakir should see a bump too.  

 

 

Me.