Steelers decline 5th year option for Najee Harris

[Sweats]

When i watched him in college, the first thing that came to mind was "generational" and i so wanted the Bills to draft him, however, he couldn't carry it over to the NFL..........that's a shame cause the guy is good, but i just don't know what the hell happened to him.

[Buffalo03]

Why do I feel like this dude has been playing for 7 years?

  On 5/3/2024 at 3:09 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Happens often. People wonder why RBs aren’t making big money? Mid round - undrafted guys take 1st round picks jobs all the time.

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This isn't true. It has to be the right RB. Jahmyr Gibbs is way better than Najee. So is Bijan and they were first rounders last year. There are guys you can get in the first round that are absolutely worth it

[Roundybout]

The Steelers had some of the worst run blocking in the league the last couple is seasons. Harris was getting hit in the backfield more often than not.

[GunnerBill]

  On 5/3/2024 at 10:52 AM, BuffaloBillyG said:

Making matters worse for the Jets, they don't have the "cheap" out with a 5th year option on Hall. He was drafted round 2. Plus it's the Jets. Despite drafting 2 RBs this year...it's still possible they sign Hall to a new deal anyway. It's the Jets...lol.

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Ah that's true. Forgot Hall was a 2nd. Thought he was a first. They had three firsts that year but they were Sauce, Wilson and Jermaine Johnson weren't they? Hall early 2nd. 

[GunnerBill]

  On 5/3/2024 at 10:39 AM, Matt_In_NH said:

This is very similar to the Zeke thing, clearly just a name people know and assume he is what we was in college.  Meanwhile clearly not the best RB in his own locker room.   Not surprised.

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Not sure that's fair. Zeke was very good his first four years. His last three years in Dallas he was trading on his reputation more than his performance but his first 4 seasons he had almost 5,500 yards at over 4.6 a clip with 40 touchdowns. I didn't like Dallas drafting him as high as they did because he is a running back but he was legit those first 4 years. 

 

In fact Zeke is the poster boy for why you don't take a running back top 10 and why you should be wary of taking them first round at all. He was elite his first four years on his rookie deal, so Dallas paid him. Then very quickly you see the tread wear down and his production can't match up to the contract. Draft them later, use that tread for 4 years of a rookie deal, let them walk and rinse and repeat. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

  On 5/3/2024 at 11:18 AM, Roundybout said:

The Steelers had some of the worst run blocking in the league the last couple is seasons. Harris was getting hit in the backfield more often than not.

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And yet Jaylen Warren had a 5.3 ypc last year and a respectable 4.9 the year before. Compared to 4.1 and 3.8 for Harris in the same span. 

[djp14150]

  On 5/3/2024 at 11:08 AM, Sweats said:

When i watched him in college, the first thing that came to mind was "generational" and i so wanted the Bills to draft him, however, he couldn't carry it over to the NFL..........that's a shame cause the guy is good, but i just don't know what the hell happened to him.

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I guess you coukd say he’s “ generational” but not in a good way.

 

Adam on espn  posted all the 1st who didn’t have 5 th yr option. It was a lot.

[Sharky7337]

Underwhelming since he entered the pros

[JaCrispy]

I knew coming outta that draft Harris was gonna suck…awful pick

[mannc]

Another first round running back mistake.  Teams just never learn.

  On 5/3/2024 at 11:10 AM, Buffalo03 said:

Why do I feel like this dude has been playing for 7 years?

This isn't true. It has to be the right RB. Jahmyr Gibbs is way better than Najee. So is Bijan and they were first rounders last year. There are guys you can get in the first round that are absolutely worth it

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Pretty sure fifth year options on Gibbs and Robinson will be declined, as well.  Not horrible players, but horrible draft picks. Inexcusable.

[BarleyNY]

  On 5/3/2024 at 3:05 AM, NewEra said:

He’s their 2nd best RB imo.  Nowhere near worth the fifth year 

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Agree he’s their 2nd best RB. The only surprising thing is that the 5th year option would have only been $6.7M. I understand why a team wouldn’t want to pay that for their second best RB, but with the big increase in RB compensation this off-season it might’ve been worth doing. Especially since he is still their starter and their 3rd RB is Cordarrelle Patterson. 

[YattaOkasan]

  On 5/3/2024 at 1:08 PM, BarleyNY said:

Agree he’s their 2nd best RB. The only surprising thing is that the 5th year option would have only been $6.7M. I understand why a team wouldn’t want to pay that for their second best RB, but with the big increase in RB compensation this off-season it might’ve been worth doing. Especially since he is still their starter and their 3rd RB is Cordarrelle Patterson. 

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Appreciate that number as I was looking for it.  That wouldve made him 12th highest paid (AAV) at the position.  Therein lies much of the problem.  You have to be top 10 at your position for the 5th year to be worth.  That seems to be for most positions with QB, Edge, and WR being the only spots you can really get much of a discount.  Combined with the hard cap number and it has lost a lot of its appeal.   

[JerseyBills]

  On 5/3/2024 at 3:02 AM, Canadian Bills Fan said:

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/steelers-make-surprising-decision-najee-harris-future

 

I'm surprised but not really.

 

I wanted the Bills to draft him so badly 

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drafted him last 2 years in fantasy 🤮

He's just inconsistent 

[Virgil]

  On 5/3/2024 at 10:12 AM, Bill from NYC said:

Yes but he would have fared better with Josh. I'm NOT saying that I wanted the Bills to take him whereas I don't like drafting running backs that early in the modern NFL.

That said, Najee is a GREAT blocker and receiver. He's a good strong runner too although he does lack blinding speed. He would be a very effective weapon for Josh. and provide him with extra time. He would be an asset to the Bills.

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I saw the thread title and just knew I'd find you in here 🤣

[MJS]

  On 5/3/2024 at 11:08 AM, Sweats said:

When i watched him in college, the first thing that came to mind was "generational" and i so wanted the Bills to draft him, however, he couldn't carry it over to the NFL..........that's a shame cause the guy is good, but i just don't know what the hell happened to him.

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Everyone is bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter at the NFL level. It is hard to know who is truly a difference maker when they are going up against lesser opponents in college. That's why there is a 50% miss rate in the 1st round, and much worse in later rounds. It is literally a flip of the coin. Even "can't miss" prospects are misses all the time.

 

It is pretty incredible when rookies come in and perform at a high level like CJ Stroud last year, or Puka Nacua. But often it is because coaches put them in positions to succeed and they have proper support around them. So much depends on where you land.

[Billz4ever]

  On 5/3/2024 at 11:28 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah that's true. Forgot Hall was a 2nd. Thought he was a first. They had three firsts that year but they were Sauce, Wilson and Jermaine Johnson weren't they? Hall early 2nd. 

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I remember some people on this board were losing their minds that the Bills didn't draft Hall.  😂

[gonzo1105]

Misses his holes way too much and tries to bounce it but doesn’t have the speed to get around the corner 

[NewEra]

  On 5/3/2024 at 1:08 PM, BarleyNY said:

Agree he’s their 2nd best RB. The only surprising thing is that the 5th year option would have only been $6.7M. I understand why a team wouldn’t want to pay that for their second best RB, but with the big increase in RB compensation this off-season it might’ve been worth doing. Especially since he is still their starter and their 3rd RB is Cordarrelle Patterson. 

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I’d rather draft a Ray Davis in rd 4 or 5 and spend the money elsewhere. Watched a decent amount of Steelers recent years and he rarely impresses me.  
 

Now they’ll get a motivated Najee.  Maybe that’ll be better than the previous 

[BarleyNY]

  On 5/3/2024 at 1:30 PM, YattaOkasan said:

Appreciate that number as I was looking for it.  That wouldve made him 12th highest paid (AAV) at the position.  Therein lies much of the problem.  You have to be top 10 at your position for the 5th year to be worth.  That seems to be for most positions with QB, Edge, and WR being the only spots you can really get much of a discount.  Combined with the hard cap number and it has lost a lot of its appeal.   

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That is fair. But the one thing to consider is the sudden, dramatic increase in pay for RBs. The 5th year option numbers are based on last season’s contracts. Retaining Harris would keep Warren in the role he has excelled at and that’s important. Still, it’s a bit rich and I don’t blame the Steelers for not picking it up, but a case can be made that it would be a reasonable value.

 

I checked OTC’s valuation of him and they have it at $6.64M, which supports that. 

Edited May 3, 2024 by BarleyNY

[Watkins101]

  On 5/3/2024 at 3:06 AM, YattaOkasan said:

What does the 5th year option for him cost?  Probably a ton for an above average RB. 

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It depends on a number of things, including play time and pro bowl selections. 
If the player played less than 75% of the offensive snaps for 2 seasons and less than 50% for the 3 seasons, it’d be the average of the 3rd-25th highest paid  RBs over the last 5 years. If they played 75% or more snaps, it’s the average of the 3rd-20th paid RBs over the last 5 years. I didn’t do the actual average of these numbers,   If they made a pro bowl, they’d get the transition tag equivalent (just under 10 mil). If they were selected for multiple pro bowls, it’s the equivalent of the franchise tag (~12 mil for Rbs). These pro bowls only count if they were the original selection, not alternates. 
 

Najee Harris went to one probowl, but was not the original selection, so he qualifies only for the playing time. His salary on the 5th year option would have been 6.79 million, which would have made him the 12th highest paid RB.