HaldimandBills Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: You are right that our backup DTs last year sucked. I said they would when we wasted money signing them. But when we have holes at premium spots backup DT didn't seem super value (and I am not high on Carter). Similarly at backup RB I do like Davis just isn't great value. If you were spending a 4th on a first string running back fair enough. For a second string short yardage back that to me isn't good asset allocation. In six drafts it is a second, two thirds and a fourth on running backs. The most devalued position on the football field. On receiving room my argument is absolutely lack of proven production equates to bottom three. Sure Coleman could end up a stud rookie. Sure Samuel could have a career year (if he stays healthy I think that is very likely actually), sure Kincaid thrown in adds a dimension. But at the same time do I think it is better than the 2022 receiving room? No. In 2022 they had an elite player. That to me matters more than anything else. Elite players win. Nobody in this group is approaching that. As for cap - the $10m we having coming off is needed for our draft class and BEFORE we sign a single draftee of 2024 we have only $5m in space (not $15m) against the projected cap for 2025. Of course the cap could be higher. It was a bit this year. But that isn't a great basis on which to be planning. Don't get me wrong I am not a negative nelly. I think this Bills team will still win 10 or 11 games. I think the offensive line could end up as a sneaky strength. I am less bothered about the Morse loss than a lot of people. I think Ed Oliver will have another good year and with Milano, Bernard and Taron at the second level we will be good there too. And Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, Brown etc can all take another step. But there are reasons - wide receiver, edge, safety - to believe this team will have some issues in 2024. I think it is a reload season. It is a reload season. I am struggling to see where these holes you wanted fixed could be fixed in the 3rd and 4th round vs. a rotational DT and 2nd RB? The Dend value dropped significantly after the first four were off the board. Oline could've been a potential pick but I like Carter more than anyone in the 3rd round. Receiver. Maybe but people became obsessed with the double dip and ignored everything else. Carter will play 50% of snaps and Davis will likely be our feature back in the redzone. Thats playing a pretty significant role for the Bills. That cap space is a starting point. Releasing Von Miller creates 10+ million more in cap space. Restructures. Cap going up. Bills are in a good spot. Again only Brown and Rosseau for significant new contacts. Bills have alot of ammo to greatly improve this roster after this season. Receiver will agree to disagree. Of course I'd like more talent but the Bills made more of less with Davis, Mckenzie, Knox, and Diggs. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 5 hours ago, JerseyBills said: damn 4 in 4 years is not a good sign. Maybe this staff can get him somewhat back. They have a great track record at LB last few years I don't think it's that big of a deal. He was with one team since drafted for 6 years. Then two others on one year deal. He's counting us as the 4th to make it sound more dramatic. Loads of players have that type of resume. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 1 minute ago, HaldimandBills said: It is a reload season. I am struggling to see where these holes you wanted fixed could be fixed in the 3rd and 4th round vs. a rotational DT and 2nd RB? The Dend value dropped significantly after the first four were off the board. Oline could've been a potential pick but I like Carter more than anyone in the 3rd round. Receiver. Maybe but people became obsessed with the double dip and ignored everything else. I agree the DE value did drop off. I think most of the next tier of edge guys were 3-4 OLBs not base DEs. I actually like Solomon at the value they took him. I was not arguing for double dip at receiver just for the sake of arguing it. I am arguing it because I think the value there was better than a rotational DT (you are entitled to like Carter better than I do but I still disagree) there was better value at OT. There was better value at corner. These are premium spots and we took the low hanging fruit at backup DT and backup RB because we had immediate holes there. It's that type of need based drafting that get you in trouble in the long run. 9 minutes ago, White Linen said: I don't think it's that big of a deal. He was with one team since drafted for 6 years. Then two others on one year deal. He's counting us as the 4th to make it sound more dramatic. Loads of players have that type of resume. He has been allowed to leave by the Falcons, Browns and Panthers. It is not exactly the Chiefs, 49ers and Cowboys. How many guys with that resume make a difference in the NFL week to week? And I loved Deion Jones coming out. But it is a reality that he isn't that guy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said: You really think Beane was ever going to sign Chark or OBJ? We've seen how much he loves bargain bin shopping for WRs. Claypool and Mack Hollins are this year's Sheffield and Harty. Beane probably didn't want to sign OBJ, especially for the money he just signed for. Chark I believe was considered but we won't know now. Beane can't do nothing bigger than what he has done until after June 1st. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaldimandBills Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I agree the DE value did drop off. I think most of the next tier of edge guys were 3-4 OLBs not base DEs. I actually like Solomon at the value they took him. I was not arguing for double dip at receiver just for the sake of arguing it. I am arguing it because I think the value there was better than a rotational DT (you are entitled to like Carter better than I do but I still disagree) there was better value at OT. There was better value at corner. These are premium spots and we took the low hanging fruit at backup DT and backup RB because we had immediate holes there. It's that type of need based drafting that get you in trouble in the long run. He has been allowed to leave by the Falcons, Browns and Panthers. It is not exactly the Chiefs, 49ers and Cowboys. How many guys with that resume make a difference in the NFL week to week? And I loved Deion Jones coming out. But it is a reality that he isn't that guy now. I agree with corner over DT. We have been horrific at DT beyond Jones and Oliver so if Carter hits that will be the biggest help for the Bills. I think the Bills have more faith Elam can rebound than us fans. I guess will wait and see. I also think the Bills see Carter as their future 1 Tech once he puts on a bit more weight. Reciever I was pounding the table for Roman Wilson at 60 and a trade up in the 3rd. It didn't happen but I understand why the Bills did what they did. We couldn't run the ball in the redzone without Allen and our DT's sucked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 (edited) 21 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I agree with the final point, that the Bills have at times had a lot of well paid depth. It gave them one of the deepest rosters in football but it definitely limited their ability at times to pursue bigger ticket items in FA.... although can be argued the one time they did it hasn't exactly worked out. In a year where they have decided to take some pain on the cap they are knowingly trying to reduce that amount. It's a strategy I support. PFF did their top 101 players of 2023 a couple of months ago. The Bills had 1 guy on the list. They were the 2 seed in the AFC. They lack top end talent and have suffered from it. Josh covers so many problems with this team. We have had rosters full of overpaid grinders. Hopefully his reset changes the way that the Bills allocate resources. Fill the depth with cheap labor and pay for the top of the roster. 21 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said: Pot meet kettle My jersey is already hanging in the rafters homie. You’re the one trying to make a name for yourself. That trash take isn’t going to get you there. 21 hours ago, HaldimandBills said: Whose trying to convince who of what? Offensive Tackle is every bit as important as receiver and to say its not close is not close to correct. Now if you want to have a conversation how overrated poorly run teams like the Dolphins have thrown crazy money at receiver while smart run teams like the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens keep investing in their oline and defense over receiver thats a different conversation. There is a reason OT were flying off the board 1st round. No one is saying receiver isn't important. It clearly is in the next position group of importance after QB with Dend and OT. What would you like the Bills to do? Throw a 3rd or 4th round pick at receiver? Maybe it's just me but I'd like to see our QB having to do less QB sneaks because we have no RB who was useful in the short run game. I'd like our rotational DT to actually sustain pressure in the playoffs rather than be stonewalled. Our receiver group is not bottom 3. You keep saying this but it isnt true. Bills were predicted to win the Superbowl in 2022 with Isiah Mckenzie as our slot and Gabe Davis as our # 2. This Bills receiver group is better simply by the fact Kincaid is also part of the group by every metric outside of his position title. Kincaid and Knox will be on the field together a lot and Kincaid won't be lined up as a Tight End. I agree the Bills need to add someone post June 1st. I disagree with Bills fans pretending the sky is falling because they didnt draft a 2nd receiver in the mid rounds. To be upset for a budget linebacker signing now when you know the Bills have 10 million coming their way soon for receiver seems kind of silly. If it “isn’t correct” list the 3 that are worse and be prepared to defend it… Edited May 4 by Kirby Jackson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 (edited) 10 hours ago, Beck Water said: Kirby, Kirby, Kirby. I can go with you that it's more important to have top starting WR than to have top starting off-ball LB. The fact that the Bills were able to splice together an adequate Milano replacement from a combo of Dodson, Poyer, and Rapp that allowed them to have a sound defense speaks to that. "INFINITELY" in all caps? Mmmmm I think what the Bills defense looked like in the playoffs while we were playing The Ghost of AJ Klein and One Winged Dodson, would show that's not true. So you're upset because the Bills valued a potential backup LB and STer over a WR drafted 24 slots later (meaning 2/3 of the league didn't see him as "significant snaps with upside") and 56 slots later (meaning all of the league didn't see him as "significant snaps with upside" and then again 2/3 again)? Mmmm Ok, if those guys turn into Puka Nacua or even play significant snaps for Miami and Dallas, I will come back here and give you your props. I think the Cold Hard Football Facts are that a backup LB who plays ST is more likely to play meaningful snaps this season, especially with the Bills having moved on from 2 ST stalwarts at LB. And if the Bills are counting on a 6th round rookie WR for significant snaps with upside, then we really haven't done enough to address WR. Which actually, I'm concerned about, but I can't get all fluffy about taking a LB over a WR late in the 5th. The issue is that, on this team, Malik Washington (for example) would play 40% of the offensive snaps (and more with an injury). Ulofoshio is, at best, the 4th or 5th off the ball LB. He will play special teams if he dresses. So they took a guy, that will play less, at a less important position. That’s stupid. Edited May 3 by Kirby Jackson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 23 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: My jersey is already hanging in the rafters homie. You’re the one trying to make a name for yourself. That trash take isn’t going to get you there. If it “isn’t correct” list the 3 that are worse and be prepared to defend it… Oh Sh!t! @Kirby Jackson going Leonard Smith on these plan B free agents. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: PFF did their top 101 players of 2023 a couple of months ago. The Bills had 1 guy on the list. They were the 2 seed in the AFC. They lack top end talent and have suffered from it. Josh covers so many problems with this team. We have but a roster full of overpaid grinders. Hopefully his reset changes the way that the Bills allocate resources. Fill the depth with cheap labor and pay for the top of the roster. My jersey is already hanging in the rafters homie. You’re the one trying to make a name for yourself. That trash take isn’t going to get you there. If it “isn’t correct” list the 3 that are worse and be prepared to defend it… I wouldn’t put value in PFF grades. Ed Oliver was a top 100 player last year and PFF has him out of the top 50 interior DL. Milano is absolutely a top 101 player. He might be the best WLB in the NFL. James Cook was 3rd in All Purpose Yards. Taron Johnson might be the best slot corner. We have potential to have several players in the top 100 this upcoming year. Allen, Kincaid, Cook, Torrence, Milano, Johnson, Oliver and Bernard all have that potential. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaldimandBills Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 17 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: PFF did their top 101 players of 2023 a couple of months ago. The Bills had 1 guy on the list. They were the 2 seed in the AFC. They lack top end talent and have suffered from it. Josh covers so many problems with this team. We have but a roster full of overpaid grinders. Hopefully his reset changes the way that the Bills allocate resources. Fill the depth with cheap labor and pay for the top of the roster. My jersey is already hanging in the rafters homie. You’re the one trying to make a name for yourself. That trash take isn’t going to get you there. If it “isn’t correct” list the 3 that are worse and be prepared to defend it… Patriots - two prospects rated worse than Coleman. Bourne whose amounted to nothing and Juju. Sure. Chargers - not much more to be said Broncos - unless you think Sutton carries the entire load. Cardinals - Unless Marvin Harrison Jr to you makes up an entire receiving unit. Giants - Isiah Mckenzie might be their third best receiver. No thanks Panthers - Much rather have Samuel Coleman and Shakir over Thielen. Thats being conservative. When Coleman, Shakir and Samuel combine for 2200 yards will see how this all shakes out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Oh Sh!t! @Kirby Jackson going Leonard Smith on these plan B free agents. Love that expression 😂😂 9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I wouldn’t put value in PFF grades. Ed Oliver was a top 100 player last year and PFF has him out of the top 50 interior DL. Milano is absolutely a top 101 player. He might be the best WLB in the NFL. James Cook was 3rd in All Purpose Yards. Taron Johnson might be the best slot corner. We have potential to have several players in the top 100 this upcoming year. Allen, Kincaid, Cook, Torrence, Milano, Johnson, Oliver and Bernard all have that potential. I don’t disagree that there are some guys that could be on there (specifically Taron). At the end of the day though, the people that grade it the closest, thought that the Bills only had 1 of the top 101 players in the NFL. That’s wild for a 2 seed (and a credit to Josh). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 34 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: My jersey is already hanging in the rafters homie. You’re the one trying to make a name for yourself. That trash take isn’t going to get you there. Trash take of seeing the Deion Kobe’s signing as filling out the 90 and it. It being a wr is not a big deal? Are you for real? Sorry I offended you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 (edited) 11 hours ago, HaldimandBills said: Patriots - two prospects rated worse than Coleman. Bourne whose amounted to nothing and Juju. Sure. Chargers - not much more to be said Broncos - unless you think Sutton carries the entire load. Cardinals - Unless Marvin Harrison Jr to you makes up an entire receiving unit. Giants - Isiah Mckenzie might be their third best receiver. No thanks Panthers - Much rather have Samuel Coleman and Shakir over Thielen. Thats being conservative. When Coleman, Shakir and Samuel combine for 2200 yards will see how this all shakes out. Panthers? 😂😂 Dionte Johnson, Thielen, Legette and Mingo is worse than what we have? 😂😂 Um, no, that’s not even up for discussion. Giants have Nabers & the Cards have MHJ. They have alphas that you need to account for. They are better because of that. Broncos - they are similar but slightly better. We can call Franklin and Coleman a wash. Sutton, Reynolds and Mims > Shakir, Samuel and Hollins. If Shakir keeps developing the Bills could be better than Denver. The Pats are similar but I have them ahead. Bourne is better than anyone that the Bills have as of today. Juju has had success. Baker and Polk are two bites at the apple with the same chance at success as Coleman. I think that most objective people would have the Pats over the Bills but it’s reasonable either way. The Chargers are in the same boat. They just added Chark (who some here wanted). I like McConkey over Coleman but the rest of the Bills over the Chargers. This could reasonably go either way. Edited May 4 by Kirby Jackson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 51 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said: Trash take of seeing the Deion Kobe’s signing as filling out the 90 and it. It being a wr is not a big deal? Are you for real? Sorry I offended you Not offended!! We actually agree that Deion Jones used to be really good. He’s now a PS guy on the worst team in the league. If he makes the team, fine, but he isn’t the same guy that went to the Pro Bowl in 2017. The 🗑️ part is about anybody wanting more warm bodies at WR. They have fine depth. That depth is just expected to start. I don’t need to add Chase Claypool to a camp battle with Shorter, Isabella and Hamler. We don’t need more trash in that room (especially a cancer like Claypool). The Bills need to address the top of the depth chart there, not the bottom. They are not okay at the position and throwing more scrub vets at it isn’t solving anything. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 11 hours ago, HaldimandBills said: Packers, Chiefs, Ravens keep investing in their oline and defense over receiver thats a different conversation. All those teams have invested far more into WR than the Bills have. Like, by a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: The issue is that, in this team, Malik Washington (for example) would play 40% of the offensive snaps (and more with an injury). Ulofoshio is, at best, the 4th or 5th off the ball LB. He will play special teams if he dresses. So they took a guy, that will play less, at a less important position. That’s stupid. I don't at all see it as a forgone conclusion that Malik Washington, or any other late round rookie, would play 40% of the snaps, but you could walk me through your reasoning and help me see it. The way I see it, the last few years, the Bills have been heavily a 1,1 team. Maybe 65-70% 11. But I think the "tea leaves" say that may change. -Shakir averaged 68% and that's lowered by 2 games where we barely passed and he was only on the field 50% of the time. I think it's a good guess they want that to go up. The Bills seem to think Shakir can play a bit outside, or in the Bunch formations Brady loved with LSU, so I don't expect to see him coming off too much. -Ditto Samuel - he was a 68% guy under Brady in Carolina -I think they're going to want Coleman to get on the field and let him take his growing pains and lumps Now let's say for the sake of argument that's 70% of the snaps. -Kincaid was on the field 58% of the time, and I think most people feel he's earned an increase. -But if they want a TE who can block in-line, and block downfield as opposed to get in the way, that would be Knox. So if you don't want to pull Kincaid off the field, that would mean 22 sets. I would love to know what our % 22 set was after Brady took over - anyone? It wouldn't shock me to see us play 20% 12 next season. -After Brady took over, Gilliam played an average of 7% of the snaps, so we were either in 2,1 or 2,2 7% of the time -Last 4 seasons, Mack Hollins has a low of 27% of the snaps (MIA) and a high of 94% (LVR). Last year with Atlanta 39%. So who knows, but because of his blocking chops, don't expect to see him much lower than 30%, I think. That might fill in for any breathers Coleman and Shakir need. Basically, I think there's room for a 4th WR to get in the field, but I don't see it being a 5th round rookie (even if he was a fantasmagorical blocker in college), and I don't think it's gonna be 40% of the snaps. And I think a 5th round rookie would be more likely than not to be "Shortered". 1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said: I don’t disagree that there are some guys that could be on there (specifically Taron). At the end of the day though, the people that grade it the closest, thought that the Bills only had 1 of the top 101 players in the NFL. That’s wild for a 2 seed (and a credit to Josh). What did you think of the year PFF ranked Tyrod Taylor in their top-10 QB with Buffalo? I'm not blanket dissing off PFF, but I don't think one really should put too much weight in their player rankings, OL grades, or DL grades for example. Edited May 4 by Beck Water Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: PFF did their top 101 players of 2023 a couple of months ago. The Bills had 1 guy on the list. They were the 2 seed in the AFC. They lack top end talent and have suffered from it. Josh covers so many problems with this team. We have but a roster full of overpaid grinders. Hopefully his reset changes the way that the Bills allocate resources. Fill the depth with cheap labor and pay for the top of the roster. Yea the lack of top end talent has been the main thing stopping them going further IMO. Needing someone to make a play for them at the critical moment. Those KC games come down to a play here and there. They have every single time since the AFCCG where we were well beaten and still short of their level. Every game against them since has come down to a couple of plays. And while we have made them in the regular season we haven't in the post season and Kelce, Hill (before he left) and Jones have. If this ends up being something of a hole filling meat and potatoes draft that allows them to use the capital they have built next year to get a difference maker or two that will be one thing. But it felt very hole filly, quite need driven and there remain questions about our ability to find game changers. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 10 hours ago, GunnerBill said: He has been allowed to leave by the Falcons, Browns and Panthers. It is not exactly the Chiefs, 49ers and Cowboys. How many guys with that resume make a difference in the NFL week to week? And I loved Deion Jones coming out. But it is a reality that he isn't that guy now. Allowed to leave doesn't make any sense. His contract was up. Can you point out where I said he's someone that will make a difference week to week? Stop being so dramatic with anyone that questions you. He's a decent player to take a good look at. He's a depth signing. With his experience, if he's got something left, can play some snaps if Milano isn't ready to go. He also seems to fit in nicely, as others have mentioned, on teams with the new rules. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 10 minutes ago, White Linen said: Allowed to leave doesn't make any sense. His contract was up. He was traded from the Falcons. The Browns essentially hacked a year off his contract and yes, with the Panthers it was a 1 year deal. Allowed to leave in that it was three different situations in the three different places. I was trying to find a form of words that covers them all. 4th team in 4 years. They are the facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 9 hours ago, Beck Water said: I don't at all see it as a forgone conclusion that Malik Washington, or any other late round rookie, would play 40% of the snaps, but you could walk me through your reasoning and help me see it. The way I see it, the last few years, the Bills have been heavily a 1,1 team. Maybe 65-70% 11. But I think the "tea leaves" say that may change. -Shakir averaged 68% and that's lowered by 2 games where we barely passed and he was only on the field 50% of the time. I think it's a good guess they want that to go up. The Bills seem to think Shakir can play a bit outside, or in the Bunch formations Brady loved with LSU, so I don't expect to see him coming off too much. -Ditto Samuel - he was a 68% guy under Brady in Carolina -I think they're going to want Coleman to get on the field and let him take his growing pains and lumps Now let's say for the sake of argument that's 70% of the snaps. -Kincaid was on the field 58% of the time, and I think most people feel he's earned an increase. -But if they want a TE who can block in-line, and block downfield as opposed to get in the way, that would be Knox. So if you don't want to pull Kincaid off the field, that would mean 22 sets. I would love to know what our % 22 set was after Brady took over - anyone? It wouldn't shock me to see us play 20% 12 next season. -After Brady took over, Gilliam played an average of 7% of the snaps, so we were either in 2,1 or 2,2 7% of the time -Last 4 seasons, Mack Hollins has a low of 27% of the snaps (MIA) and a high of 94% (LVR). Last year with Atlanta 39%. So who knows, but because of his blocking chops, don't expect to see him much lower than 30%, I think. That might fill in for any breathers Coleman and Shakir need. Basically, I think there's room for a 4th WR to get in the field, but I don't see it being a 5th round rookie (even if he was a fantasmagorical blocker in college), and I don't think it's gonna be 40% of the snaps. And I think a 5th round rookie would be more likely than not to be "Shortered". What did you think of the year PFF ranked Tyrod Taylor in their top-10 QB with Buffalo? I'm not blanket dissing off PFF, but I don't think one really should put too much weight in their player rankings, OL grades, or DL grades for example. Specific to Malik Washington, he has a skill set that the Bills roster currently does not have. He’s incredibly twitchy and gets out of his breaks quickly. That was Diggs. He could find space and because of that could handle volume. It’s a little bit of Beasley. Washington is little but on this roster he had a chance to play and to climb the depth chart. He would be the best pure route runner on the team imo. He would have played over Hollins. I don’t treat PFF as the Bible but at the same time it’s as good as most. The point being that their list of the top 101 players isn’t a travesty. You could probably nitpick a handful of guys here or there. It’s not like the Bills had 4 or 5 guys that were screwed by not being on there. They had 1 guy make the list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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