Deion Jones signed to 1-year deal per Schefter

[Dr. Who]

19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Bro, you’re tripling down?!? He was thrown the ball 45 times last year. What is a better volume stat for a WR than targets? 🤣🤣 That was tied with Nick Westbrook Ikhine and 1 behind Luke Musgrave. I believe that was 113th. Just stop or I’m going to continue dragging you and your false information. 
 

For the 100th time, no one knows what will happen this year. What we do know, is he was effective with 45 balls thrown his way. Stop arguing with facts.

No, you are the one who is presumptuous for not accepting an optimistic projection as fact. I tell you what, let's find a fella who was thrown to 5 times on the year and caught them all. That would be 100% catch rate. All you have to do is throw it to that fella ninety times instead of five, and your problems are solved.

 

What, maybe his skill set was such that a low number of targets was appropriate, and you can't simply assume expansion will carry similar results? Nonsense, man, you are just willfully pessimistic.

[FireChans]

40 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

No, you are the one who is presumptuous for not accepting an optimistic projection as fact. I tell you what, let's find a fella who was thrown to 5 times on the year and caught them all. That would be 100% catch rate. All you have to do is throw it to that fella ninety times instead of five, and your problems are solved.

 

What, maybe his skill set was such that a low number of targets was appropriate, and you can't simply assume expansion will carry similar results? Nonsense, man, you are just willfully pessimistic.

I agree.

 

Thats why Greg Rousseau played 122 more snaps this year and had 3 less sacks than last year. Because our problems were solved by just playing him more.

[Mat68]

23 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

As of today, they are. That’s not really debatable. I think that Samuel can fill Gabe’s volume. I also think that he’s going to see a handful of carries. I’m an Ohio State fan and love the player. He’s more playmaker than pure WR. 

 

Shakir had 24 targets once Brady took over. That extrapolated is 58 targets on the year. As I said, he absolutely did not handle volume last year. Understand now?

He also had 12 in 2 playoff games.  Multiple games he had 6 targets.  If he averages 6 targets a game thats 100.  I do not think it is an unreasonable amount.  Projection yes.  Something Buffalo wants to explore more?  Yes.  

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

He also had 12 in 2 playoff games.  Multiple games he had 6 targets.  If he averages 6 targets a game thats 100.  I do not think it is an unreasonable amount.  Projection yes.  Something Buffalo wants to explore more?  Yes.  

Oh, I think he will be at 85+. I’m not arguing that he will be thrown the ball more. He needs those targets. I was just saying that, “he didn’t have volume last year.” He didn’t. If he can be as productive on double the targets, he will be a really good player.

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Bro, you’re tripling down?!? He was thrown the ball 45 times last year. What is a better volume stat for a WR than targets? 🤣🤣 That was tied with Nick Westbrook Ikhine and 1 behind Luke Musgrave. I believe that was 113th. Just stop or I’m going to continue dragging you and your false information. 
 

For the 100th time, no one knows what will happen this year. What we do know, is he was effective with 45 balls thrown his way. Stop arguing with facts.

 

Catches

 

You said you did know what will happen this year.

 

Don't threaten me and don't tell me what to do.  This is where posters like you need to "be better".  

Edited May 5 by White Linen

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh, I think he will be at 85+. I’m not arguing that he will be thrown the ball more. He needs those targets. I was just saying that, “he didn’t have volume last year.” He didn’t. If he can be as productive on double the targets, he will be a really good player.

Right.  That is the gamble they made by doing the Diggs trade.   The top 3 pass catchers in Qb rating when targeted last season were Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  Thats who the passing game is going to feature.  May not like it or agree with it, but that is what they are doing imo.     

[White Linen]

47 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Right.  That is the gamble they made by doing the Diggs trade.   The top 3 pass catchers in Qb rating when targeted last season were Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  Thats who the passing game is going to feature.  May not like it or agree with it, but that is what they are doing imo.     

 

Since Brady took over, 59.4% of Shakir's production came under him vs 34.3% for Gabe.  Gabe didn't play in the playoffs and Shakir was 10/12/75 and 2 TD's.  My belief and eyes told me Shakir started to step up and really start producing when Gabe fell off.  In the 7 games since Brady - Gabe had 5 stinkers with 2 catches / 8 targets and 21 yards and two really nice games of 6 and 4 catches with 105 and 130 yd games.  Shakir had 2 bad games with one no catch contest on 1 target and 1 catch, 1 target and 12 yards.  

 

To me Shakir starting coming on later in the season when Gabe went cold.  That's where I was going with Shakir providing volume when Gabe wasn't.  Gabe had 10 games with 2 or fewer catches and Shakir had 9.  However 6 of Shakir's 9 were in the first 6 games and 7 before Brady took over.  

 

I think it's reasonable to assume Gabe won't be missed too much, from a production perspective.  

 

So now, it's really about coming up with a plan to replace Diggs production.  To me, the signing of Samuel and drafting Keon - we're closer than most believe.  Just my opinion.  

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5 by White Linen

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

Since Brady took over, 59.4% of Shakir's production came under him vs 34.3% for Gabe.  Gabe didn't play in the playoffs and Shakir was 10/12/75 and 2 TD's.  My belief and eyes told me Shakir started to step up and really start producing when Gabe fell off.  In the 7 games since Brady - Gabe had 5 stinkers with 2 catches / 8 targets and 21 yards and two really nice games of 6 and 4 catches with 105 and 130 yd games.  Shakir had 2 bad games with one no catch contest on 1 target and 1 catch, 1 target and 12 yards.  

 

To me Shakir starting coming on later in the season when Gabe went cold.  That's where I was going with Shakir providing volume when Gabe wasn't.  Gabe had 10 games with 2 or fewer catches and Shakir had 9.  However 6 of Shakir's 9 were in the first 6 games and 7 before Brady took over.  

 

I think it's reasonable to assume he can Gabe won't be missed too much.  

 

So now it's really about coming up with a plan to replace Diggs production.  To me with a step from Shakir, the signing of Samuel and drafting Keon - we're closer than most believe.  Just my opinion.  

I agree.  Most if not all of Davis volume is going to Coleman.  I think Diggs is getting split among Shakir, Kincaid and Samuel.  Many are not seeing Shakir as a player who will get more volume.  They see him as what he was.  A 3rd wr.  I think he gets as many targets as any wr on the roster.   Before the trade they decided Shakir was going to be the Z.  

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

3 less sacks

You mean 3 fewer sacks? 😁

 

Actually, this is a tricky one. Since you can be credited with a half sack, maybe it should be less.

 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I agree.  Most if not all of Davis volume is going to Coleman.  I think Diggs is getting split among Shakir, Kincaid and Samuel.  Many are not seeing Shakir as a player who will get more volume.  They see him as what he was.  A 3rd wr.  I think he gets as many targets as any wr on the roster.   Before the trade they decided Shakir was going to be the Z.  

I don't think "many are not seeing Shakir as a player who will get more volume." Rather the opposite. Whether they made a decision before trading Diggs or more reactively afterwards, he will be the Z and get a lot of targets.

 

What no one can know ahead of time is how effective he will be when asked to perform as a more significant element in the offense. I don't see an obvious fall back option if it doesn't work out. I definitely don't think Samuel is that player. It seems a risky projection to me without a better plan B.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, White Linen said:

 

Catches

 

You said you did know what will happen this year.

 

Don't threaten me and don't tell me what to do.  This is where posters like you need to "be better".  

Okay, he was tied for 105th in catches with 39. He caught 20 of those 39 after Brady took over.

Please quote where I said that I knew what would happen this year. Add it right here for everyone to see. One of us isn’t telling the truth and it’s not me…

 

Be better 

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Right.  That is the gamble they made by doing the Diggs trade.   The top 3 pass catchers in Qb rating when targeted last season were Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.  Thats who the passing game is going to feature.  May not like it or agree with it, but that is what they are doing imo.     

Oh, it’s going to have to. Do I think that group stack up with other good offenses? Of course not. I like all 3 players but with the exception of Kincaid they are nice role players not lead guys. That’s the issue.
 

The top of the depth chart needs to be filled. Hopefully they will grow this year, maintain and get an alpha in 2025.

[White Linen]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

Please quote where I said that I knew what would happen this year. Add it right here for everyone to see. One of us isn’t telling the truth and it’s not me…

 

 

 

See below.  You just got, got.  

 

The WR room last year wasn’t good enough. It was way better than this group. Now if Coleman is good and Shakir continues to develop they can be an average WR room. At the moment, they’re inarguably in the bottom 3. 

[Kirby Jackson]

36 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

See below.  You just got, got.  

 

The WR room last year wasn’t good enough. It was way better than this group. Now if Coleman is good and Shakir continues to develop they can be an average WR room. At the moment, they’re inarguably in the bottom 3. 

Yep, that’s it. I’m not sure that you understood the task. Now where did I say what would happen this year?

[White Linen]

58 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yep, that’s it. I’m not sure that you understood the task. Now where did I say what would happen this year?

 

People that don't tell the truth, often can't see it.  It's not too late to work on yourself.  I now actually feel bad for you.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't think "many are not seeing Shakir as a player who will get more volume." Rather the opposite. Whether they made a decision before trading Diggs or more reactively afterwards, he will be the Z and get a lot of targets.

 

What no one can know ahead of time is how effective he will be when asked to perform as a more significant element in the offense. I don't see an obvious fall back option if it doesn't work out. I definitely don't think Samuel is that player. It seems a risky projection to me without a better plan B.

 

 

Yeah,  impressive production in limited exposure then followed by much less efficiency when given an elevated role is all too common.

 

 In 1986 Chris Burkett had unreal production in limited exposure.   He qualified for and lead the entire NFL in yards per catch with 23.........which is an insane number and put up more yards than Shakir did last year in the process.   Burkett was considered a pretty safe bet to be a stud WR for the foreseeable future......but defense's paid him more attention in 1987 and that all changed.

 

We also remember the crazy partial season Robert Foster put up in 2018.  

 

People who think that a player who has a good passer rating when targeted over a limited period is likely to repeat that in a much expanded role are pretty oblivious, IMO.

 

 

Edited May 6 by BADOLBILZ

[CSBill]

On 5/2/2024 at 7:37 PM, Beck Water said:

 

Well, let me put it to you in a different light.

 

Beane has said that the last game the team plays tends to showcase the weaknesses.

 

What happened in the last, the last 2 games really, that the team played?

1) we had inadequate LB depth - Milano had already been lost to the season.  Tyrel Dodson, who replaced him platooning with Poyer, was lost halfway through the final regular season game.  Terrel Bernard was lost halfway through the WC playoff.   So we platooned AJ Klein, Dorian Williams, and Baylon Spector during the Pittsburgh game after Bernard went out, then Klein, 1-armed Dodson, and Dorian Williams vs KC.  Let's just say, "It didn't work".

2) our WR were getting out-physicaled by the KC LB and DB.  I'm not sure who it was but I literally saw one of our receivers shoved like 3 yards off his route - all legal and within 5 yds of the LOS

 

Basically, McDermott and Beane were forced to acknowledge that 31 yr old Matekevich was 100% there for ST at this point, that they couldn't count on Dodson or Spector to back up Bernard at MLB, and maybe Dorian Williams will develop but he's not there yet.  So Dodson and Matekevich are gone. 

 

That left our LB corps at Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector, Morrow, and who?  We usually have 6.  I don't think they want to count on a late 5th round rookie; if he can beat someone out, great, if not, he can sit on the practice squad.  

 

Even if they 100% count on the return of Milano (and in one of his brief press interactions, Milano said that his recovery was on track and he would have a normal off-season; he strode into the building for OTAs like a man on a mission), the Bills badly need adequate depth at LB, that is an upgrade to Matekevich, Dodson, Klein, Spector, and Williams.  Morrow started in Chicao 2 yrs ago and Philly last year; he also played teams.  It's been 3 years since Deion Jones started in Atlanta, but he played about 1/3 of the defensive snaps for Carolina last season and more for Cleveland the year before (after an early stint on IR).  

 

Now Spector and Williams may take a step, not saying they can't especially rookie Williams.  But if they don't, Beane is a Man with a Plan.  None of us want to see AJ Klein walk out on the field at MLB next to Tyrell Dodson for a playoff game, and that includes Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott.

 

 

 

 

Williams will improve much in season two, I think Terrell Bernard like progress.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

See below.  You just got, got.  

 

The WR room last year wasn’t good enough. It was way better than this group. Now if Coleman is good and Shakir continues to develop they can be an average WR room. At the moment, they’re inarguably in the bottom 3. 

 

35 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

People that don't tell the truth, often can't see it.  It's not too late to work on yourself.  I now actually feel bad for you.

Still not seeing where I said that I knew what would happen next year. That’s what you claimed earlier. Please quote it…You’re embarrassing yourself. It’s time to bow out. Stop swinging because I’m going to hold you accountable to everything that you’ve said that isn’t true. I will let you off the hook if you walk away.

 

 

Edited May 6 by Kirby Jackson

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah,  impressive production in limited exposure then followed by much less efficiency when given an elevated role is all too common.

 

 In 1986 Chris Burkett had unreal production in limited exposure.   He qualified for and lead the entire NFL in yards per catch with 23.........which is an insane number and put up more yards than Shakir did last year in the process.   Burkett was considered a pretty safe bet to be a stud WR for the foreseeable future......but defense's paid him more attention in 1987 and that all changed.

 

We also remember the crazy partial season Robert Foster put up in 2018.  

 

People who think that a player who has a good passer rating when targeted over a limited period is likely to repeat that in a much expanded role are pretty oblivious, IMO.

 

 

I don't see how this group gets the benefit of the doubt on managing the WR room. Coleman, a bunch of scrubs, and hope that decent role players can elevate above their pay grade is not compelling. Lots of folks buying it, though. Whole lot riding on Brady being a really good OC.

 

I hope it works, because I want my team to win, but Josh Allen is more magnanimous than I if he is truly happy about it.

[White Linen]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

Still not seeing where I said that I knew what would happen next year. That’s what you claimed earlier. Please quote it…You’re embarrassing yourself. It’s time to bow out. Stop swinging because I’m going to hold you accountable to everything that you’ve said that isn’t true. I will let you off the hook if you walk away.

 

 

 

It's right there.  Hold yourself accountable, ever how difficult that seems to be for you.  

 

It's there for everyone to see, so I fulfilled my obligation.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

It's right there.  Hold yourself accountable, ever how difficult that seems to be for you.  

 

It's there for everyone to see, so I fulfilled my obligation.

Where? 😂😂 Are you talking about me saying that “if Coleman is good and Shakir develops, they can be average?” That isn’t saying what’s GOING to happen. That’s what I HOPE happens. Come on man, you’re better than that. 

Edited May 6 by Kirby Jackson