Realistic "Transition Year" Expectations

[stinky finger]

On 5/1/2024 at 9:04 AM, Gregg said:

10-11 wins. Maybe they win the AFCE. To be honest I like the Jets roster better than the Bills. Of course, it all depends on Rodgers staying healthy, but they will be a threat to win the division. A decent amount of turnover on the Bills roster going into next year so I really don't know what to expect from the Bills. Could win the division or WC or miss the playoffs. I honestly don't know.

 

With a healthy JA at the helm, The Bills should never miss the playoffs.

[Meatloaf63]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

The DB room couldn't be more different. We've massively downgraded. Mike Edwards is atrocious in all aspects of the game. Taylor Rapp is a massive liability in the passing game and his undisciplined and reckless tackling have already cost us. Losing Dane Jackson as a first guy off the bench is being completely disregarded as not a big deal. He was a fringe starting talent. For better or worse, you're going to see a lot more of Kaiir Elam now.

Hopefully Cole Bishop takes the starting job away from Edwards or Rapp soon.
Hopefully we can bring in a better vet to help back there.
Hopefully Douglas and Benford stay healthy all year.
Hopefully Elam isn't a dumpster fire

That's a lot of hope needed. I'd prefer talent and confidence, but maybe I'm weird.

Bishop will be an upgrade, Rapp played a lot of downs, Benford was a starter Douglas is an upgrade over white. Jackson is easily replaceable . Mcdermott could not of screwed Elam up worse, hopefully he actually works with the kid and gets something out of him. He’s flashed enough to show coaching decisions have been harmful. They could choose to add to this group after June 1st and probably should in case of injury. the starting group is more than capable.

[Chaos]

AFC East is a bad division except for the Bills.  Only coaching incompetence could lead to not winning the division. But the coaching staff will do enough to win the division and most people will hail this as a great feat. At this point, the expectation would be that the coaches don't know how to win playoff games against the better playoff teams, so no reason to expect 2024 season to be the season for that. 

[major]

I don’t think we make the Super Bowl this year but we will be fun to watch. Probably lose in the divisional round again 

[Nextmanup]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:37 AM, Wizard said:

When Beane said the team is "in transition" what does that look like for you in 2024-2025.

 

For me, it means four (4 things).

 

1. Bills will be 10-7 and get a Wildcard

 

2. Bills will offload Miller and Knox and will have more cap space heading into 25-26 season

 

3. Bills will focus on finding a new punter and kicker.  A #1 DE and #1 WR will be key components to move forward with their 1st and two 2nds.

 

4. All eyes will be on OC Brady to see if he can have both a solid passing and running game that is consistent and not too predictable.

 

 

The fact that they moved on from Diggs THIS YEAR and not next year tells me they decided to right the salary cap situation all in 1 season.  Take the hit once and be ready to go forward with a Josh Allen led version 2.0 team next year.

 

So I don't expect much to happen this year, as apparently the organization doesn't either.

 

The problem with that is when we fail to achieve anything yet again, Beane and McDimwit can sell it as "part of the plan".

 

If McD is NEVER going to get on the hot seat and get shipped out of here, forget about having a winning program in place during the useful portion of Allen's career.

 

A real shame and waste of a historic opportunity.  

[DeepPass]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:37 AM, Wizard said:

When Beane said the team is "in transition" what does that look like for you in 2024-2025.

 

For me, it means four (4 things).

 

1. Bills will be 10-7 and get a Wildcard

 

2. Bills will offload Miller and Knox and will have more cap space heading into 25-26 season

 

3. Bills will focus on finding a new punter and kicker.  A #1 DE and #1 WR will be key components to move forward with their 1st and two 2nds.

 

4. All eyes will be on OC Brady to see if he can have both a solid passing and running game that is consistent and not too predictable.

 

 

A great post because we share the same thoughts about the future. We'll be OK with all the new faces!

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

I think this whole idea of it being a transition year or a rebuild is a bit over blown.  Returning 8 starters on the offense and 7 or 8 (depending how you count Douglas) on defense doesn't sound to me like a major upheaval.  I thought Morse was reaching the end of the line and it was time to move on.  Diggs and Davis were not the weapons that they needed to be, especially for the last nine games. The team also didn't need the ongoing Diggs drama. Floyd had good games but faded some down the stretch, showing some of his age.  White's major injuries and missed games made him a non-factor for two seasons.  Poyer and Hyde were not terrible but had clearly lost a step.  They remained somewhat effective because of their intelligence and experience.

 

The Bills need the new receiver group to collectively deliver good results, Miller to be at least as good as Floyd, and the safeties to be at least as steady as the older versions of Poyer and Hyde.  Moving on from Morse will probably prove to be a nonevent.  I don't think any of these things are out of the realm of reasonable possibility.

[BullBuchanan]

6 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Bishop will be an upgrade, Rapp played a lot of downs, Benford was a starter Douglas is an upgrade over white. Jackson is easily replaceable . Mcdermott could not of screwed Elam up worse, hopefully he actually works with the kid and gets something out of him. He’s flashed enough to show coaching decisions have been harmful. They could choose to add to this group after June 1st and probably should in case of injury. the starting group is more than capable.

1. No he won't be as a rookie. Guaranteed to be a drop-off, and that's when he starts, which could be a while.
2. And looked really bad doing it.
3. Douglas was already our #2 last year. White missed nearly the entire year
4. Jackson is not easily replaceable, considering we didn't replace him.

[billsfan89]

I was thinking Going into last season I had several concerns about the team two super glaring ones and two moderate concerns. 

 

2023 start of the season concerns

1. MLB - Most fans including myself didn't know the truth about Bernard, the limited action he saw his rookie year in 2022 he looked small and lost. Starting him at MLB after losing Edumonds looked like a big hole on the team. 
2. RT - Spencer Brown showed potential after his rookie season but he was a turd right tackle in 2022. The Bills brought back a marginal backup in Queese and a marginal vet competition in Snell so there wasn't much of a plan B for Spencer Brown. Luckily after an uneven/bad start he turned it around and was a quality starter. 
3. WR2 - The Bills spent their biggest draft resource on Kincaid but the Bills were still running out Gabe Davis as a WR2. Shakir was an unknown and Harty and Sherfield were marginal players. This ended up being not as bad due to the fact that Gabe was decent and Shakir emerged and Kincaid had his desired impact. 
4. Safety Health and Decline - Hyde was 33 coming off a huge injury and Po was 32 coming off a season where he was banged up. Both were around the age where safety play declines and the injuries the year before were not a recipe for success. Luckily they hedged by bringing in Rapp a quality backup so the concern was alleviated. 

2024 going into the season my concerns are 

1. WR- No Diggs and Davis, a lot riding on Keon to come in and Shakir and Samuel to step up. It's a major area of concern as glaring as MLB and RT were thought to be going into last season but the position seems to hold more weight to the offenses success apparently. 
2. DE - Floyd is gone and Von was a no-show last year. Shaq Lawson also is not there anymore but wasn't much more than a JAG last season. There's a lot riding on Von bouncing back closer to his 2022 form to fill in for Floyd while the back end of the rotation is a rookie in Solomon and unproven players in Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan. 
3. Kicker/Punter/Special Teams - No secret Bass collapsed in the playoffs and was shaky in the regular season, Martin is a vet but coming off a below average year. ST unit also wasn't that great. The Bills drafted some ST aces in round 5/6 that should help but Bass is a major concern.

It's less overall concerns in 2024 but the top concern is so glaring and vital that it makes me feel a bit uneasy. But I think the Bills will win 11+ games, take the division and win a playoff game. The rest is going to be about luck and development and rookie impact. 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I was thinking Going into last season I had several concerns about the team two super glaring ones and two moderate concerns. 

 

2023 start of the season concerns

1. MLB - Most fans including myself didn't know the truth about Bernard, the limited action he saw his rookie year in 2022 he looked small and lost. Starting him at MLB after losing Edumonds looked like a big hole on the team. 
2. RT - Spencer Brown showed potential after his rookie season but he was a turd right tackle in 2022. The Bills brought back a marginal backup in Queese and a marginal vet competition in Snell so there wasn't much of a plan B for Spencer Brown. Luckily after an uneven/bad start he turned it around and was a quality starter. 
3. WR2 - The Bills spent their biggest draft resource on Kincaid but the Bills were still running out Gabe Davis as a WR2. Shakir was an unknown and Harty and Sherfield were marginal players. This ended up being not as bad due to the fact that Gabe was decent and Shakir emerged and Kincaid had his desired impact. 
4. Safety Health and Decline - Hyde was 33 coming off a huge injury and Po was 32 coming off a season where he was banged up. Both were around the age where safety play declines and the injuries the year before were not a recipe for success. Luckily they hedged by bringing in Rapp a quality backup so the concern was alleviated. 

2024 going into the season my concerns are 

1. WR- No Diggs and Davis, a lot riding on Keon to come in and Shakir and Samuel to step up. It's a major area of concern as glaring as MLB and RT were thought to be going into last season but the position seems to hold more weight to the offenses success apparently. 
2. DE - Floyd is gone and Von was a no-show last year. Shaq Lawson also is not there anymore but wasn't much more than a JAG last season. There's a lot riding on Von bouncing back closer to his 2022 form to fill in for Floyd while the back end of the rotation is a rookie in Solomon and unproven players in Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan. 
3. Kicker/Punter/Special Teams - No secret Bass collapsed in the playoffs and was shaky in the regular season, Martin is a vet but coming off a below average year. ST unit also wasn't that great. The Bills drafted some ST aces in round 5/6 that should help but Bass is a major concern.

It's less overall concerns in 2024 but the top concern is so glaring and vital that it makes me feel a bit uneasy. But I think the Bills will win 11+ games, take the division and win a playoff game. The rest is going to be about luck and development and rookie impact. 

 

Thanks for an excellent post, especially bringing up your big concerns going into 2023, which were probably most fans' concerns, too.  That Beane and McDermott dealt with those personnel issues as well as they did last season -- as well as replacing their OC in season --  suggests that they are not nearly the incompetents that some here think they are and that the season isn't over before it even starts.

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

What were the Chiefs expectations when they traded Hill and made other cap moves?  The Bills expectations should be the same.  NFL football success starts with QB and coaching the Bills have that even though many disagree on the coaching part, it has been proven.  Strategy and game planning play a huge role.   This HC won 9 games with Tyrod Taylor and nothing at WR....literally nothing.  Players 40-53 are important but you can overcome a lack of pure talent in that area of your roster with good coaching/game planning and putting those players in positions to use their strengths.  IMO the Bills have focused too much on having the deepest roster in the league in years past and that has resulted in not being about to keep your draft picks or even pluck a guy from someone else's practice squad.   Most every player in NFL locker rooms are tremendous athletes and some of the best to ever come out of their high schools.  Coaching and scheming puts these guys in the best position to help the team win.  Pairing that with a top 5 QB and good leadership will always put you in a position to win.

 

On WR's, there is an irrational obsession with that position among NFL fans and it gets worse every year.  It is seemingly the only position that matters to half the "fans".  Even the radio guys can only talk about WR's.   Yet the SB champs the last two years have had what?  The Lions and Ravens have also been weak at the position.  Don't get me wrong, it is one of the most important positions but so are both lines, yet all people care to talk about is more WR's.    

[SectionC3]

13 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

What were the Chiefs expectations when they traded Hill and made other cap moves?  The Bills expectations should be the same.  NFL football success starts with QB and coaching the Bills have that even though many disagree on the coaching part, it has been proven.  Strategy and game planning play a huge role.   This HC won 9 games with Tyrod Taylor and nothing at WR....literally nothing.  Players 40-53 are important but you can overcome a lack of pure talent in that area of your roster with good coaching/game planning and putting those players in positions to use their strengths.  IMO the Bills have focused too much on having the deepest roster in the league in years past and that has resulted in not being about to keep your draft picks or even pluck a guy from someone else's practice squad.   Most every player in NFL locker rooms are tremendous athletes and some of the best to ever come out of their high schools.  Coaching and scheming puts these guys in the best position to help the team win.  Pairing that with a top 5 QB and good leadership will always put you in a position to win.

 

On WR's, there is an irrational obsession with that position among NFL fans and it gets worse every year.  It is seemingly the only position that matters to half the "fans".  Even the radio guys can only talk about WR's.   Yet the SB champs the last two years have had what?  The Lions and Ravens have also been weak at the position.  Don't get me wrong, it is one of the most important positions but so are both lines, yet all people care to talk about is more WR's.    

This.  We took the Chiefs to the limit with Diggs contributing nothing but his bad attitude, AJ Klein at MLB, Leonard Floyd having checked out, Benford out, Daquan Jones playing with one arm, Trent Sherfield present for meaningful offensive snaps, and Milano out.  The expectation is to win the Super Bowl.  Certain things will have to fall into place for that to occur--health, pass rush, contributions from Coleman, step forward from Shakir, and commensurate performance from Cook. But the pieces are there.  It just has to fall into place.  

[oldmanfan]

They’ll win the division.  The Fish lost too much on D and Tua ain’t the guy.  The Jets can’t get out of their own way and Rogers will show his age.  And the Pats clearly aren’t a threat.  Once in the playoffs you got a shot.

[ddaryl]

14 hours ago, stinky finger said:

If you can remain patient and wait until late December, you stand a much better chance of accurately predicting.

Of course but I personally cannot make a prediction till I see how this team behaves in real games. In fact I gave up a decade ago thinking any preseason or pre-traqining camp predicitons really matter. So many things can happen

I laugh at those who boast their predictions without actually seeing the team play meaningful games. We lost a lot of players and brought in some youth....We have a HC who leaves alot of us scratching our heads at times to, We wil have our OC in his first full season (which I'm excited to see what he does) and a new DC, so I will wait till mid October to see what kind of team we do have and how it is trending.

Edited May 3 by ddaryl

[stinky finger]

4 hours ago, ddaryl said:

Of course but I personally cannot make a prediction till I see how this team behaves in real games. In fact I gave up a decade ago thinking any preseason or pre-traqining camp predicitons really matter. So many things can happen

I laugh at those who boast their predictions without actually seeing the team play meaningful games. We lost a lot of players and brought in some youth....We have a HC who leaves alot of us scratching our heads at times to, We wil have our OC in his first full season (which I'm excited to see what he does) and a new DC, so I will wait till mid October to see what kind of team we do have and how it is trending.

What do we know about predictions?

 

They are:

 

• free

• fun 

• unscientific

• without penalty

 

Just make one, or don’t. What are you afraid of?

 

 

[ddaryl]

Just now, stinky finger said:

What do we know about predictions?

 

They are:

 

• free

• fun 

• unscientific

• without penalty

 

Just make one, or don’t. What are you afraid of?

 

 

I honestly cannot make a prediction. 

Do the WRs who showed some promise last year rise up or do they show us that last year was fluke

Can Keon help us forget Diggs in year 1

How will our D look with a bunch of new pieces

If I predict to low I'll have 100 notfications telling me how dumb I am, or a bunch of puke / eyeroll  emojis

If I predict to high I'm a homer, and I think everything is peaches and cream but can't see the facts

If I take the safe route and predict something in the middle then I'm just predicting to avoid the above 2 scenarios

Ask me in mid October and I can better say if we are a playoff team with the ability to win it all or if its a complete reset year and we will be lucky to make the wildcard.



I've been doing this on the intranets for 20+ years, I've learned not to bother with predictions

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Expectation: 11 wins. Win the AFC East. Win at least 1 playoff game.

 

Worst case: 9-10 wins, wild card. Still win 1 playoff game once we get in.

 

I dont see anything less than that. We still have Josh. We still own the Division. We have a decent schedule this year.

[Big Turk]

12-5 and win the AFC East.  Josh Allen is that good.

[Fr. Jerk]

We're going 17-0 and we're gonna shoot em all in the face, ya dig?

Edited May 4 by Fr. Jerk

[Einstein's Dog]

14 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I was thinking Going into last season I had several concerns about the team two super glaring ones and two moderate concerns. 

 

2023 start of the season concerns

1. MLB - Most fans including myself didn't know the truth about Bernard, the limited action he saw his rookie year in 2022 he looked small and lost. Starting him at MLB after losing Edumonds looked like a big hole on the team. 
2. RT - Spencer Brown showed potential after his rookie season but he was a turd right tackle in 2022. The Bills brought back a marginal backup in Queese and a marginal vet competition in Snell so there wasn't much of a plan B for Spencer Brown. Luckily after an uneven/bad start he turned it around and was a quality starter. 
3. WR2 - The Bills spent their biggest draft resource on Kincaid but the Bills were still running out Gabe Davis as a WR2. Shakir was an unknown and Harty and Sherfield were marginal players. This ended up being not as bad due to the fact that Gabe was decent and Shakir emerged and Kincaid had his desired impact. 
4. Safety Health and Decline - Hyde was 33 coming off a huge injury and Po was 32 coming off a season where he was banged up. Both were around the age where safety play declines and the injuries the year before were not a recipe for success. Luckily they hedged by bringing in Rapp a quality backup so the concern was alleviated. 

2024 going into the season my concerns are 

1. WR- No Diggs and Davis, a lot riding on Keon to come in and Shakir and Samuel to step up. It's a major area of concern as glaring as MLB and RT were thought to be going into last season but the position seems to hold more weight to the offenses success apparently. 
2. DE - Floyd is gone and Von was a no-show last year. Shaq Lawson also is not there anymore but wasn't much more than a JAG last season. There's a lot riding on Von bouncing back closer to his 2022 form to fill in for Floyd while the back end of the rotation is a rookie in Solomon and unproven players in Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan. 
3. Kicker/Punter/Special Teams - No secret Bass collapsed in the playoffs and was shaky in the regular season, Martin is a vet but coming off a below average year. ST unit also wasn't that great. The Bills drafted some ST aces in round 5/6 that should help but Bass is a major concern.

It's less overall concerns in 2024 but the top concern is so glaring and vital that it makes me feel a bit uneasy. But I think the Bills will win 11+ games, take the division and win a playoff game. The rest is going to be about luck and development and rookie impact. 

If they don't address the top concern, WR, then when a 2025 analysis is done it seems that will still be a concern.