Realistic "Transition Year" Expectations

[FloridaSnow]

13 hours ago, Billznut said:

For the past 4-5 seasons, the Bills have had 3-5 blowout wins per season, occasionally more. I think considering the schedule and the 2024 roster compared to past years, I don’t see the Bills with a lot of blowout wins. Expect alot more close games this year and hope we can win more than we lose. Like others, I’m expecting somewhere between 8-11 wins, and we need to be extremely healthy to achieve 10-11 wins, which we have not been fortunate in that regard the past few seasons. 

Agree. After last year, I worry about our kicking game in the scenarios. I’m bullish on the team this season, but Bass has me concerned about potential close losses. 

[SoTier]

16 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

The Chiefs have now won the AFC West 8 years in a row, and won double-digit games 9 years in a row.  During that span, they have 3 Super Bowl wins and 4 appearances.  Nobody is expecting less this year.

 

Before them, the Patriots had 17 straight seasons with double-digit wins.  They won the AFC East 16 of those years.  The only year they didn't was when Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1, and they still somehow finished with an 11-5 record.

 

Around the same time, the Colts had 9 straight seasons with double-digit wins.  Won the AFC South in all but one of those years (12-4 and still ended in second place).  Then Peyton Manning missed an entire year with a neck injury and was released.  After that down year, they did it 3 more years in a row with Andrew Luck.

 

Even the Steelers now have 20 straight years finishing .500 or above.  They haven't had a losing season since Tommy Maddox was the starting quarterback.

 

 

Bottom line... there are no legitimate excuses for not winning 10-11 plus games and at least making the playoffs.  The idea that we "must go through a down year" to re-set the roster and fix the salary cap is complete nonsense.  If we can't go 3-4 seasons without needing to rebuild and reboot everything, then Brandon Beane isn't good enough as a General Manager, and he wasn't doing a proper job of preparing for the future.

 

Now whether that expectation is reality, I don't know.  Beane's actions appear (at least from the outside) to be a guy fully expecting a rebuild season, and then reloading a year from now.  Hoping that I'm wrong.

 

 

I don't think that the bolded sentence is true at all.  

• White didn't play the last 12 games of the regular season or the playoffs and had already been replaced by Douglas last season. 
• Hyde and Poyer had some injuries, and both had significantly slowed down.  If one or both were starters this season, they would be targeted by every DC.
• Floyd's 10.5 sacks will be missed.  At best, Miller comes back better in 2024 than he was last season, and that hole at least closes if it doesn't disappear.
• Dodson backed up Bernard, but Bernard should be healthy and Matt Milano should be returning, too.
• I think that Morse might be missed at center and/or McGovern at guard but the OTs and the other OG are solid.  McGovern's replacement at G was on the team last season.
• Both Diggs and G.Davis weren't big contributors in the second half of the season or in the playoffs.   Both seemed to have lost the ability to make clutch plays in 2023.  The Bills will miss Diggs' 1000+ yards, but not necessarily him.   Davis was certainly not worth the $13 million the Jags are paying him.
• I don't think that the Bills were looking to replace Diggs and G Davis spot for spot.  I think they want a WR corp that is sure handed and can catch passes in the middle of the field and in the red zone. 
• R Davis is a nice addition to the RB group behind Cook and Johnson as both a runner and pass catcher.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 5/1/2024 at 10:12 AM, Logic said:

Has anyone checked on the OP? 

His post stopped midway through.



 

Respectfully, I think Michael Thomas is alllll the way cooked.

I read an article last year about how the Saints were just doing absolutely everything to help him return to form. They were patient with him, they had him on a very specific and detailed recovery regimen, gave him opportunity after opportunity, etc...and he just...can't move any more. He can't play.

He hasn't posted more than 500 yards receiving since 2019.

I know he was dynamic in his heyday, and I know the "name" of Michael Thomas is appealing. But...the actual player that's attached to that name is all the way done, I think. 

I won't be surprised if he never plays another down in the NFL.

 

 

He's someone a team that is bad/desperate might try mid-season.  Like Buffalo and Merriman a few years back.  

[PBF81]

If we cannot win at least 10 games in this pathetic division in which we own Miami and there's two other siht teams, then something needs to change.  

 

Having said that, it will be very interesting to see what Coleman's impact is on our offense, Brady's impact after an offseason, and to see what will be different for Davis v. Singletary/Moss.  

 

Expect a drop in both offensive and defensive rankings to maybe 10th or so in both.  

 

The biggest curiosity is how we utilize Allen given that we have a slew of short-yardage specialists in the receiving department with no established deep-ball specialist.  This doesn't cater to Allen's strengths.  

 

The big games will be Jax, SF, and KC at home and Houston, Baltimore, and Detroit on the road.  

 

 

[Meatloaf63]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Our biggest problem on defense is we don't have any dynamic pass rushers. I don't see Miller, Rousseau or Epenesa reaching 10 sacks. Our Lb's will have to play out of their minds.

Lack of pressure could doom the Db’s, but it won’t be their fault. Can’t expect them to hold up forever.

[Nelius]

On 5/1/2024 at 11:45 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

10 is the absolute best case scenario

 

9 or less is more likely. If Rodgers stays healthy, that team wins the division, and the Bills are on the outside looking in

 

Why are many of you so worried about nearly 41 year old Aaron Rodgers? The expectation around here seems to be that he’ll simply just regain his MVP form…despite turning 41 during the season, despite coming off a major injury, despite still being new to playing in NY, despite increasing media and “extra curricular” obligations, etc etc etc. 

 

A “healthy” Aaron Rodgers in 2024 just doesn’t incite the automated fear and respect in me that so many of you seem to have. Tua is more concerning.

[Gregg]

6 minutes ago, Nelius said:

Why are many of you so worried about nearly 41 year old Aaron Rodgers? The expectation around here seems to be that he’ll simply just regain his MVP form…despite turning 41 during the season, despite coming off a major injury, despite still being new to playing in NY, despite increasing media and “extra curricular” obligations, etc etc etc. 

 

A “healthy” Aaron Rodgers in 2024 just doesn’t incite the automated fear and respect in me that so many of you seem to have. Tua is more concerning.

 

The Jets have a solid roster and even at 41 Rodgers is still a huge upgrade over Z. Wilson. If he gets hurt and misses time, then Tyrod Taylor is capable of being a good game manager and helping them win games. Both games against them will be tough games especially at MetLife.

[Nelius]

3 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The Jets have a solid roster and even at 41 Rodgers is still a huge upgrade over Z. Wilson. If he gets hurt and misses time, then Tyrod Taylor is capable of being a good game manager and helping them win games. Both games against them will be tough games especially at MetLife.

But the reaction around here isn’t that Rodgers is a more than capable game manager that’s better than Wilson, it’s OMG fear the great Aaron Rodgers. I agree with everything you said, but that’s not the contrarian argument. I don’t agree that Rodgers is still an automatic top 5 that guarantees NY the division.

Edited May 2 by Nelius

[Gregg]

Just now, Nelius said:

But the reaction around here isn’t that Rodgers is a capable Tyrod like game manager, it’s OMG fear the great Aaron Rodgers. I agree with everything you said, but that’s not the contrarian argument. I don’t agree that Rodgers is still an automated top 5 that guarantees NY the division.

 

He is not in his prime anymore. His last year at GB he threw 26 TD's and 12 INT's. In his prime he was throwing more than 40 TD's and less than 10 INT's or something along those lines. The Jets won 7 games last year without having an NFL caliber QB on the roster and one of the worst offenses. If Rodgers plays decent which he probably will then that defense is going to win them a lot of games. The Jets are a threat to win the division this year. IMHO. The biggest thing with Rodgers is can he stay healthy. That is a BIG IF. 

[ColoradoBills]

Even if Beane could have kept most of the veterans they would not be as good as last season.

This "transition" was needed however you want to categorize it.

 

Offense is the key this season.  Morse was good but getting pushed around too much.  The Diggs situation is what it is.

 

My 2 keys are the OL and Brady.  IF the Center play is good, I see another year of experience and consistency providing a chance for

superior OL play.  Giving Josh Allen more time will be a huge threat to opposing Ds.  A successful running game, when needed, is always a plus.

 

Brady has a full off-season to formulate his plan.  Good play designs and play sequencing will be the difference of just fighting for the playoffs.

or being dominate.

 

Looking forward to seeing what happens!

Go Bills.

 

[Gregg]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Even if Beane could have kept most of the veterans they would not be as good as last season.

This "transition" was needed however you want to categorize it.

 

Offense is the key this season.  Morse was good but getting pushed around too much.  The Diggs situation is what it is.

 

My 2 keys are the OL and Brady.  IF the Center play is good, I see another year of experience and consistency providing a chance for

superior OL play.  Giving Josh Allen more time will be a huge threat to opposing Ds.  A successful running game, when needed, is always a plus.

 

Brady has a full off-season to formulate his plan.  Good play designs and play sequencing will be the difference of just fighting for the playoffs.

or being dominate.

 

Looking forward to seeing what happens!

Go Bills.

 

 

I would also add that Kincaid shows nice improvement from his rookie year to year 2. I think the passing game is going to revolve around him especially without a true #1 WR.

[RyanC883]

22 hours ago, Gregg said:

According to AI 2026 is the year

 

 

I’m greedy, lets steal one from KC.  

[BullBuchanan]

19 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:

The DB’s are pretty much the same as las year except losing two old has beens. The speed of Cole will make up for his inexperience. More worried about the d line than the d backs.

The DB room couldn't be more different. We've massively downgraded. Mike Edwards is atrocious in all aspects of the game. Taylor Rapp is a massive liability in the passing game and his undisciplined and reckless tackling have already cost us. Losing Dane Jackson as a first guy off the bench is being completely disregarded as not a big deal. He was a fringe starting talent. For better or worse, you're going to see a lot more of Kaiir Elam now.

Hopefully Cole Bishop takes the starting job away from Edwards or Rapp soon.
Hopefully we can bring in a better vet to help back there.
Hopefully Douglas and Benford stay healthy all year.
Hopefully Elam isn't a dumpster fire

That's a lot of hope needed. I'd prefer talent and confidence, but maybe I'm weird.

[Unforgiven]

[nuiwek]

I don't know about expectations, but i will say I'm getting excited for the season

[sleeby]

Forget the jets.  They will always find a way to lose.  Until they prove otherwise I'm not falling for the hype any more than I did last summer. 

 

The jets fans thought they were going to the SB last summer.  Lol.  They believed the marketing and the fan echo chamber.  If you fell for it last summer than maybe do so again but if not then don't this summer either.  Same leadership.  Same old QB.  Some new toys.

 

Miami worried me more last summer and again this year.  Don't see them as better than the Bills but that offense should only need a serviceable QB to move the ball well.

 

NE.  Meh.  

 

 

 

[Awwufelloff]

My expectation is 9-7 and last wildcard spot

Edited May 2 by Awwufelloff

[agilen]

This is a weird thread. We are running back most of the same team who won 6 of their last 7 games, with the only L by 3 points against the repeat SB champs. We lose an aging C and a WR who was ineffective in those games; everyone else on offense moves one year closer to their prime.

 

On defense, we lose 3 DBs who were too slow to compete; Douglass and Benford are the best starting CBs we’ve had over the past 2 years. We get Milano back. Floyd is the only loss, and he wasn’t a game-changer.

 

Why would anyone expect a different performance than the back third of last season?

[stinky finger]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:52 AM, ddaryl said:

will have to see how the team gels during preseason. Until then its all speculation. Personally I couldn't possibly make a call with any chance at accuracy till mid October

If you can remain patient and wait until late December, you stand a much better chance of accurately predicting.

[Dr. K]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:57 AM, NeverOutNick said:

My expectations are win the Super Bowl. I don’t hear the “transition” nonsense. Beane and McD don’t get a transition year after multiple years of falling short. Josh Allen is our QB. Hopefully you got him enough offensively to make a deep playoff run or it’s on Beane and McD. 7 years with the most talented QB in NFL history is long enough. Every year is Super Bowl or bust 

Just to be accurate, it hasn't been "seven years with the most talented QB in NFL history." 

 

The first year (2017) Allen was not even on the team. For his first two years (2018, 2019) in no way shape or form was he "the most talented QB in NFL history" or even in the league at that time. 

 

You could argue that 2020 was the first year Allen could be called a great QB. So that's four years and counting. 

 

I agree that ever year it's Super Bowl or bust as long as he stays healthy. But it's far from the easy thing that so many Bills fans here seem to think.