Realistic "Transition Year" Expectations

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

Alot of new faces and rookies will be counted on. I honestly have no idea how the 2024 season will play out. They won't be a complete bottom feeder, but I am not expecting a Super Bowl contender either.

People saw how KC won it all when they started a bunch of rookies in ‘22 and think that’s the norm when it’s really an anomaly. Outside of KC I can’t think of a team that can achieve that in the current NFL. 

 

[RyanC883]

I'm not buying this "transition" nonsense. To me, the question is: "what transition??"  My expectation is a SB win.  I think we transitioned into a better team than last year.  

 

A lot of the departing players were non-factors last year.  Poyer(often slow, leading to bad angles), Hyde (injured), White (injured/not the all-pro he was), Morse (good, not great), etc., and Diggs not around as anything but a JAG in the 2nd half of the season.   Contrast that with getting Milano back, 2 vet safeties and a projected stud rookie.  Also, Miller should be totally healed and it's make or break for him.  We also added a rotational 3T DT, so we have a nice depth part for Oliver.  We should be better on D.  The only "loss" was Floyd, who vanished in the late part of the season and playoffs.  On offense, CVP likely replaces Morse with little drop off if any, Coleman, Kincaid, Knox, and Samules are a better WR/TE group than the 2nd half last season.  

 

What transition?  Transition by the technical definition, yet, but I don't buy the idea we transitioned to something worse.  

 

 

1 minute ago, 90sBills said:

People saw how KC won it all when they started a bunch of rookies in ‘22 and think that’s the norm when it’s really an anomaly. Outside of KC I can’t think of a team that can achieve that in the current NFL. 

 

 

Franchise QB and some key vets in place and you can win.  Bills can do it, we have the roster.  

[Sweats]

1 minute ago, 90sBills said:

People saw how KC won it all when they started a bunch of rookies in ‘22 and think that’s the norm when it’s really an anomaly. Outside of KC I can’t think of a team that can achieve that in the current NFL. 

 

 

 

 

 

It might be just a little more than that.......it might have something to do with a fantastic QB, a HOF TE, an excellent D, etc.

[Utah John]

Every team is in transition every season.  If they're not, they're getting older and closer to a disaster.  Teams always bring in 6-10 new players for their 53, every year  Sometimes a team has more holes than other years, but every team has to be thinking about moving toward the future.

 

Think about a car company designing its new models.  It takes several years to put a new design on the road, so the companies are thinking about what they'll be trying to sell in five years, and tailoring their strategies over the intervening years to get where they expect to be.  And if it turns out their current guess about the future isn't right, then they have to adjust as they go.  Football teams do the same thing except they have to take injuries, free agency, and the salary cap into consideration. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 is the absolute best case scenario

 

9 or less is more likely. If Rodgers stays healthy, that team wins the division, and the Bills are on the outside looking in

 

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I see lots of "Bills won't miss a beat, they're still championship contenders" type responses, and while I am optimistic that they'll have a good season, I think people may underestimate the sum total of what the Bills lost this offseason.

Hyde and Poyer, while long in the tooth and having lost some speed, made this defense go. Their leadership, their ability to basically be coaches on the field, their thorough knowledge of the scheme, their interchangability. It all allowed McDermott so disguise his coverages and to vary his playcalling in a way that we probably shouldn't expect him to be able to do if, say, Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards or Cole Bishop start.   the coaching aspect is clearly a loss.  But McD is a secondary coach.  Remember that when Hyde and Poyer arrived they were not starters, etc, or on field coaches, and they were great out of the gate.  I expect the same from this group of safeties.  

Mitch Morse was a huge leader on offense, helped shift the line and set protection calls, and played the second most important position on the line. They will now be counting on a guy who hasn't played center since college to take over.  This is the most concerning loss, IMO.  However, I think CVP takes over.  He has 3 years starting as a center in the SEC, he should be fine.  Centers generally adapt quickly to the NFL.  I agree this is a loss, but not a huge one and I think will be minuscule, particularly in the physical aspect department.  

Stefon Diggs obviously became invisible for the second half of last season, but the respect he commanded from opposing defenses allowed the Bills to see lots of looks that they won't be seeing this year, with no one currently in house to command the type of defensive respect Diggs did.  I'm not sure how much Diggs commanded respect of the D in the second half of the year.  And I think Kincaid will command coverage, leaving others open.  We also have a lot of guys you likely don't want to cover 1 on 1, or at least don't have enough guys on the D who can handle covering Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, Shakir, and Coleman 1 on 1.  Overall upgrade, particularly with the scheme we ran last year.  

Leonard Floyd was the Bills' most productive edge rusher last season, and he's gone.  Floyd vanised in the second half of the year, with only 1 sack after Nov. 26, and it was against whoever the Jets had at QB.  And against the best QBs we played, Floyed had 0 sacks all year (LA, Philly, KC, and Tampa)

Aside from those losses, the Bills will also be counting on a 20 year old rookie to play huge minutes on offense.  I'm not sure that is the plan.  We bring back everyone who produced from the 7-1 run, and Kincaid is now a 2nd year player.  Also added Samuel.  

I think the losses in leadership, experience, and scheme knowledge, and the loss of a bona fide WR1 that defenses had to gameplan, all mean that the Bills will absolutely -- if only temporarily -- take a step back this coming season.

I ultimately expect them to win 10 games and claim a wild card spot at worst, so I'm not saying the sky is falling. But to think they just won't miss a beat, or that their odds to win a Lombardi this year are as good as they've in recent years, I don't think is realistic thinking. I think 2025 and onward look more like championship caliber seasons, potentially. I think this is year one of a little reset/retooling of the team, and while it should set them up for another run in years to come, I don't think 2024 is likely to be the one in which the Bills win a title.  This is the Bills, if we win a title, it will be when least expected  

 

Lots of logic (see what I did ) in the above, but allow me to offer the counter-points in bold above.   

[somnus00]

We "transition" to winning the superbowl. I'm not that worried about the guys we lost. Other than Floyd and Morse, the guys we lost weren't big contributors to the winning streak from last season.

 

We didn't lose the Diggs, Poyer, Hyde, Tre, & Davis from 3 years ago. We have ascending young talent, Josh Allen, and we're getting Milano and Daquan back.

 

June 1st cuts are coming, and Brady will be running his own offense rather than calling plays from Dorsey's book.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

3-6 and call for McD's head, but team comes together and goes on a mini-winning streak to give hope for future and save McD's job

 

 

Nightmare scenario

 

[90sBills]

12 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

It might be just a little more than that.......it might have something to do with a fantastic QB, a HOF TE, an excellent D, etc.

Their D was not excellent in ‘22 due to all the rookies as mentioned. Agree about the QB, TE, and excellent coaching. 

[Augie]

8 hours ago, drummernut74 said:

McDimwit is still the Coach, so we will continue to trust the process and learn

 

Am I the only one who thinks the derogatory name calling is childish? 

 

 

 

EDIT: It was not meant just for you, @drummernut74, it’s pretty common. I wasn’t trying to single you out, but sorry if it felt that way. 

Edited May 1 by Augie

[90sBills]

20 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Franchise QB and some key vets in place and you can win.  Bills can do it, we have the roster.  

Anything is possible. But we couldn’t do it with a franchise qb and quality vets that have played together the last handful of years. To suddenly lose those guys and win with rookies replacements the first year of transition is something I wouldn’t bet on. 

[eball]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

Speaking of the schedule. What are we about 2 weeks until it gets released. 

 

My prediction is Thursday 5/9.

 

[Rocky Landing]

Bills came due in Miami much the same way they did in Buffalo. And, just like us, a lot of talent walked out the door, especially on defense. And of course, they are stuck with Tua. 
 

The only team that might take the AFCE over the Bills are the Jets, who wisely spent a lot of resources in their draft and FA on improving their O-line, and protecting Aaron Rodger’s. And once again, their season hinges on Aaron Rodgers. That’s an even bigger gamble this season than it was the last. Frankly, I very much doubt this narrative being peddled in New Jersey that Rodger’s is some super-human with mutant healing powers. 
 

I haven’t looked at the Vedas odds recently, but I have to believe the Bills are the favorites to once again take the AFCE. 

[BullBuchanan]

5 hours ago, uticaclub said:

The expectation for the Bills should be a championship, but the realistic expectation is a division championship and a second-round exit, as it has been in previous years. I believe it is more likely that Josh Allen will force a trade after 2025 instead of accepting a contract extension here. Even though he claims to love Buffalo, his ultimate goal is to win a championship. There is a reason why Allen did not take the full restructure, so that too much money wasn't pushed to the future, and he could potentially leave before his contract is up.

Where's he gonna go? Denver? Franchise QBs almost never do this when the org is paying them top dollar and full commitment behind them.

Edited May 1 by BullBuchanan

[uticaclub]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Where's he gonna go? Denver? Franchise QBs almost never do this when the org is paying them top dollar and full commitment behind them.

We’ll see if a team feels like they are a QB away from a QB. Someone will give us 3 1st & 2 2nds for Josh.

 

Example: Matt Stafford

Edited May 1 by uticaclub

[hondo in seattle]

It's not a full rebuild but it is a heavy reset year.

 

But I don't think it'll be a bad one when I think about the key players we've lost.  For example, Diggs wasn't very productive in the 2nd half of the season.  While Davis gave us a couple of very memorable games during his time here, in most games he was just ordinary.  Tre hardly played the past two years.  Hyde and Poyer, a fantastic duo in their prime, were starting to become injury prone and aging out.   We made our run last season without major contributions from these guys.  So why not another run this year?

 

There are three things I'll be watching closely: (1) The rookie class.  Can they - especially Coleman - contribute this year?  (2)  Brady.  Can he scheme a high-powered offense?  (3)  Injuries.  Can we enter the playoffs reasonably healthy for once?  

 

If we have positive answers for these three questions, I think we'll be able to challenge in the playoffs this season.  

 

And we should be even better in 2025 with more cap space to play with if Beane plays his cards right.  

[drummernut74]

18 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Am I the only one who thinks the derogatory name calling is childish? 

It’s the life of a very long term and beyond frustrated fan, and we all manifest it in our own ways 

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

We’ll see if a team feels like they are a QB away from a QB. Someone will give us 3 1st & 2 2nds for Josh.

 

Example: Matt Stafford

Completely different situation. Stafford only made the playoffs 3 times in 12 years there and never won the division.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, drummernut74 said:

It’s the life of a very long term and beyond frustrated fan, and we all manifest it in our own ways 

 

Fair enough. You be you. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

We have 65mm in dead cap this coming season. That's around 25% of our total cap allocated to players to NOT PLAY for us. We have a DC with 0 experience and an OC with half a season of experience. 

 

We also have an albatross of a contract in Von Miller who looked 100% cooked last season. We could've replaced him with a FA off the street and gotten better production at the position. Maybe 35 year old Miller will have a return to form this season but I doubt it. 

 

Knox is another highly paid player that had a disastrously bad season. At least there's no reason to think he can't improve this season and approach his previous production. 

 

I think a realistic expectation is 10 wins and a WC appearance. Anything beyond that would require a LOT of luck