Realistic "Transition Year" Expectations

[Fleezoid]

One Bills Drive is converting to more "open-space" offices. 

[Mikie2times]

People that think the sky is falling, so you don't think we will beat out the Dolphins and Jets in the East? 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said:

My expectations are win the Super Bowl. I don’t hear the “transition” nonsense. Beane and McD don’t get a transition year after multiple years of falling short. Josh Allen is our QB. Hopefully you got him enough offensively to make a deep playoff run or it’s on Beane and McD. 7 years with the most talented QB in NFL history is long enough. Every year is Super Bowl or bust 

Exactly. Buffalo has the single best offensive weapon in the NFL in Allen. The defense will be solid as always and the O-line is largely in tact from last year. Question marks are at WR, but I don’t see how the Chiefs are any better than us in that area or many of the Pats SB teams of the past? Cook is coming off a top 5 rushing season and Buffalo added a beast power RB that should contribute right away. We are also set at TE w/ 2 starting caliber guys. Getting younger doesn’t necessarily = getting worse. This is the sort of year where I think Buffalo will really make some noise while flying under the radar. I am definitely a homer, but trying to look at it objectively, I don’t really see how this team is any worse off than the one from last year who was a missed FG away from an AFCC game? I feel like a lot depends on Joe Brady. There’s enough talent to scheme up a competitive offense. 

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

People that think the sky is falling, so you don't think we will beat out the Dolphins and Jets in the East? 

 

Dolphins - yes. Jets - no if Rodgers stays healthy. That is a big "IF".

[SoTier]

39 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I think everyone is totally misinterpreting the term transition. 
 

The team is evolving, which is what good teams do. Their offense will look different and their defense will look different. 
 

This team can evolve and still be a juggernaut, and that’s what I expect. 

 

Exactly this.   If the Bills can stay relatively healthy this season, I don't see any reason for them to not be able to win the AFCE and go on from there.  Hopefully, they can have better luck in the playoffs in 2024 than the 2021 and 2023 teams had, especially with late season/playoff injuries. 

 

The team will look different on both sides of the ball and play a more diverse style of offense, but that's not a step backwards.  It's an adaptation to what DCs have and are doing in response to the rule changes that favored passers and pass receivers.   IMO, making defenses worry about both the run and the pass coming from formations that feature the same personnel is the Bills' aim with their new offensive pieces. 

[mannc]

2 hours ago, Wizard said:

When Beane said the team is "in transition" what does that look like for you in 2024-2025.

 

For me, it means four (4 things).

 

1. Bills will be 10-7 and get a Wildcard

 

2. Bills will offload Miller and Knox and will have more cap space heading into 25-26 season

 

3. Bills will focus on finding a new punter, kicker, and a #1 DE and #1 WR with their top 3 2025-2026 draft picks.

 

4. With Bills having more cap space and and younger platers, Bills will extend Allen by 3 years.

 

5. 

 

The Chiefs have won the last two Super Bowls during their “transition”, so no, there is no reason for diminished expectations as long as 17 is behind center…

[Logic]

I see lots of "Bills won't miss a beat, they're still championship contenders" type responses, and while I am optimistic that they'll have a good season, I think people may underestimate the sum total of what the Bills lost this offseason.

Hyde and Poyer, while long in the tooth and having lost some speed, made this defense go. Their leadership, their ability to basically be coaches on the field, their thorough knowledge of the scheme, their interchangability. It all allowed McDermott so disguise his coverages and to vary his playcalling in a way that we probably shouldn't expect him to be able to do if, say, Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards or Cole Bishop start. 

Mitch Morse was a huge leader on offense, helped shift the line and set protection calls, and played the second most important position on the line. They will now be counting on a guy who hasn't played center since college to take over.

Stefon Diggs obviously became invisible for the second half of last season, but the respect he commanded from opposing defenses allowed the Bills to see lots of looks that they won't be seeing this year, with no one currently in house to command the type of defensive respect Diggs did.

Leonard Floyd was the Bills' most productive edge rusher last season, and he's gone.

Aside from those losses, the Bills will also be counting on a 20 year old rookie to play huge minutes on offense.

I think the losses in leadership, experience, and scheme knowledge, and the loss of a bona fide WR1 that defenses had to gameplan, all mean that the Bills will absolutely -- if only temporarily -- take a step back this coming season.

I ultimately expect them to win 10 games and claim a wild card spot at worst, so I'm not saying the sky is falling. But to think they just won't miss a beat, or that their odds to win a Lombardi this year are as good as they've in recent years, I don't think is realistic thinking. I think 2025 and onward look more like championship caliber seasons, potentially. I think this is year one of a little reset/retooling of the team, and while it should set them up for another run in years to come, I don't think 2024 is likely to be the one in which the Bills win a title.

[Matt_In_NH]

Beane said "in transition" equal Bills will be 10-7, LMAO...I mean its possible but come on.  Waiving Knox after this year results in a bigger dead cap than if they just keep him.

[Gregg]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

I see lots of "Bills won't miss a beat, they're still championship contenders" type responses, and while I am optimistic that they'll have a good season, I think people may underestimate the sum total of what the Bills lost this offseason.

Hyde and Poyer, while long in the tooth and having lost some speed, made this defense go. Their leadership, their ability to basically be coaches on the field, their thorough knowledge of the scheme, their interchangability. It all allowed McDermott so disguise his coverages and to vary his playcalling in a way that we probably shouldn't expect him to be able to do if, say, Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards or Cole Bishop start. 

Mitch Morse was a huge leader on offense, helped shift the line and set protection calls, and played the second most important position on the line. They will now be counting on a guy who hasn't played center since college to take over.

Stefon Diggs obviously became invisible for the second half of last season, but the respect he commanded from opposing defenses allowed the Bills to see lots of looks that they won't be seeing this year, with no one currently in house to command the type of defensive respect Diggs did.

Leonard Floyd was the Bills' most productive edge rusher last season, and he's gone.

Aside from those losses, the Bills will also be counting on a 20 year old rookie to play huge minutes on offense.

I think the losses in leadership, experience, and scheme knowledge, and the loss of a bona fide WR1 that defenses had to gameplan, all mean that the Bills will absolutely -- if only temporarily -- take a step back this coming season.

I ultimately expect them to win 10 games and claim a wild card spot at worst, so I'm not saying the sky is falling. But to think they just won't miss a beat, or that their odds to win a Lombardi this year are as good as they've in recent years, I don't think is realistic thinking. I think 2025 and onward look more like championship caliber seasons, potentially. I think this is year one of a little reset/retooling of the team, and while it should set them up for another run in years to come, I don't think 2024 is likely to be the one in which the Bills win a title.

 

Pretty much feel the same way with the Bills. I honestly can see them either winning the division, WC, or missing the playoffs. I don't see a Super Bowl in 2024 for the Bills. Too much change and uncertainty with this roster. If this team does miss the playoffs, then they will be drafting closer to the top of the draft which is something they haven't done in a long time. I don't want them to miss the playoffs but if they do than having a higher draft pick will be a nice thing to have.

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Wizard said:

When Beane said the team is "in transition" what does that look like for you in 2024-2025.

 

For me, it means four (4 things).

 

1. Bills will be 10-7 and get a Wildcard

 

2. Bills will offload Miller and Knox and will have more cap space heading into 25-26 season

 

3. Bills will focus on finding a new punter, kicker, and a #1 DE and #1 WR with their top 3 2025-2026 draft picks.

 

4. With Bills having more cap space and and younger platers, Bills will extend Allen by 3 years.

 

5. 

 

Coleman IS our #1, better get used to that already.

 

We do need an impact DL. Yeah I know we have Oliver, buy he disappeared against KC.

 

Get further out of cap hell, have a great draft, coach em up and let's go get a Lombardi trophy. 

 

And I agree on 10-7

42 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

People that think the sky is falling, so you don't think we will beat out the Dolphins and Jets in the East? 

Dolphins yes, Jets... maybe.  They give us hell even when we are at full strength.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Wizard said:

When Beane said the team is "in transition" what does that look like for you in 2024-2025.

 

For me, it means four (4 things).

 

1. Bills will be 10-7 and get a Wildcard

 

2. Bills will offload Miller and Knox and will have more cap space heading into 25-26 season

 

3. Bills will focus on finding a new punter, kicker, and a #1 DE and #1 WR with their top 3 2025-2026 draft picks.

 

4. With Bills having more cap space and and younger platers, Bills will extend Allen by 3 years.

 

5. 

 

 

To be honest, I think this years Bills team can, and will, be better than last years team.  I don't think the Dolphins make the playoffs this year either.  

 

Why

• The offense:  I think is setup to have its best season yet in the Allen era.  This team proved that spreading the ball around, getting the run game going, and not forcing the ball to certain WR's was the key to turning the team around last year.  Brady now has a full offseason to truly install his offense, and this team got tougher and more edge now, and we have guys who CATCH the ball.  I think we will see Allens turnovers down and rating up.  And our RB room just got tougher too this draft and I think Ray and James are gonna "Cook" back there.  
• The Defense:  Just having our LB's healthy and Jones back in the middle is a major positive.  Yes, we lost some older guys, but I think Beane has done a good job replacing them.  We won't miss Tre thanks to last years Rasul trade who is probably a better CB than Tre at this point in their careers.  We have depth opposite him, still have Taron, and the safeties we have back there are still solid plus a strong prospect in Bishop entering the mix.  Carter is bringing some toughness, run stuffing, and explosiveness to the interior unit as well.  I still think we may add a vet edge rusher after June 1st too.  Plus McD is not having to split duties now as HC and DC.  

Overall, I think this team has question marks for sure at these replacement spots until the pads go on and we see what the product on the field is.  So skepticism is warranted...but I personally LOVE most of the changes for the better.  The key to the offense is how fast Coleman can get in sync and put it together with Josh and the key to the defense is how the back half of our secondary transitions into replacing Hyde and Poyer.  

 

My prediction today:  Bills win AFCE and will be one of the final 4 AFC teams in the playoffs.  I do believe they are still a SB contender.

[dgrochester55]

Transition does not always mean rebuilding. It is more of finding new players that fit the system and having new veterans take the lead.

 

How we do this year completely depends on whether the draft picks and free agents produce and fit the system. I could see a slow start, but I can also see us still making the playoffs. I do not see this Bills as a Super Bowl contender yet unless they get hot at the right time, but they weren't going to be with last year's group either.

 

 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Bruffalo said:

- Bills go 12-5, Allen gets a MVP because the narrative is that they took away his weapons and they still were very successful. 

 

- Aaron Rodgers breaks down (physically, but probably mentally too), Jets win 7 games.

 

- The Patriots get a Wildcard spot

 

- Miami falls apart as the offense is found out, but they continue to beat up on bad teams. Tua is still signed to a 45+ Million a year contract.

 

- Bills get to the AFC championship, beating the Chiefs in the divisional round.

That’s a heck of a dream you had last night. Congrats. 

[Buffalo Boy]

18 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Pretty much feel the same way with the Bills. I honestly can see them either winning the division, WC, or missing the playoffs. I don't see a Super Bowl in 2024 for the Bills. Too much change and uncertainty with this roster. If this team does miss the playoffs, then they will be drafting closer to the top of the draft which is something they haven't done in a long time. I don't want them to miss the playoffs but if they do than having a higher draft pick will be a nice thing to have.

  Somehow, the word Rookie seems to have lost its meaning. 
   I think Coleman is the one rook who could be used effectively fairly quickly in certain specific packages but he’s not going out there and starting.

   The DBs in general are potentially going to be sorely lacking in cohesiveness, especially at the start of the season. We could be trying to play catch up in a lot of games which our O doesn’t seem it will be  built for.

   

Edited May 2 by Buffalo Boy

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Boy said:

  Somehow, the work Rookie seems to have lost its meaning. 
   I think Coleman is the one rook who could be used effectively fairly quickly in certain specific packages but he’s not going out there and starting.

   The DBs in general are potentially going to be sorely lacking in cohesiveness, especially at the start of the season. We could be trying to play catch up in a lot of games which our O doesn’t seem it will be  built for.

   

 

Alot of new faces and rookies will be counted on. I honestly have no idea how the 2024 season will play out. They won't be a complete bottom feeder, but I am not expecting a Super Bowl contender either.

[dorquemada]

The biggest thing is what Brady can do with a full offseason to implement a plan.  There's no reason why the Bills can't be a more consistent team than they've been.  I've been saying for a couple years that there was clearly a locker room cancer, and it would seem that he is gone now.  I didnt think, and didn't want to think it was Diggs, I'm a huge fan of him as a player.  But the way that they got rid of him, obviously someone thought it was addition through subtraction.  I've managed teams on and off throughout my career and I can tell you definitively, I will 100% get rid of a top performer who breaks the team dynamic.  It's not always fair, but reality is that team dynamic trumps anything an individual can do.

 

I trust McD on defense, i just hope he leans towards aggressive.  I'd rather give up some big plays than die the death of 1000 papercuts. 

 

The O will be OK, i think we've got an interesting group with at least 3 guys who are very sure handed in Kincaid, Shakir, and now Coleman, not to mention Davis at RB.  I can't remember a Bills team with that many receivers with above average hands at least since the post-glory era?

[eball]

Looking at the schedule (it's pretty tough), I think a 10-11 win season and playoff berth is a success and what I'd expect.

 

[HamSandwhich]

This is the year we win the Superbowl with an embarrassment of riches heading into 2025!

[HappyDays]

Coaching on both sides of the ball will have to be much better to get past our usual divisional round loss. The high end talent just isn't there. I'm not even sure if Milano will be 100% this year. He suffered a pretty nasty complicated injury and he'll be 30 when the season starts.

 

On offense we lost one elite talent in Diggs (halfway through the season last year) so we need someone on offense to step up and become that elite talent. Kincaid has the best shot, followed by Cook, followed by Shakir, followed by Coleman.

 

On defense Oliver has fallen short of reaching elite status. At this point in his career I think we just have to accept he'll always be a 2nd tier 3T. Rousseau maybe can reach elite status. I hoped year three would be his breakout but it didn't happen so the chances are diminished each year. If he's not a double digit sack guy this year, no one on the team will be.

 

So basically we need at least two long shots to reach elite status and also the coaching to be better on both sides of the ball to seriously compete for a championship this year. It's a tall order.

[ngbills]

Transition was referring to transition in leadership. Guys like Diggs, White, Hyde, Poyer, Morse were some of the vet leaders of this team and are now gone. In a way you can look at this is a challenge to Allen to step up as a leader. Maybe the draft of rookies and saying they were looking for leadership qualities was a shot at recent draft picks like Cook, Groot, Oliver, etc that they need to be leaders. I don't see transition as referring to talent because outside of Diggs the talent was replaceable.