Realistic "Transition Year" Expectations

[DeepPass]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:42 AM, BuffaloBillyG said:

Nothing changes with expectations. I expect the Bills to compete for and win the AFCE. I expect them to be one of the final 4 teams in the AFC competing for the Super Bowl. What happens after this season into next off-season depends on the results of this year. 

Agree so much  with many new faces AND many new positional coaches this could be a season that we will relish

[mjt328]

On 5/2/2024 at 9:32 AM, SoTier said:

I don't think that the bolded sentence is true at all.  

• White didn't play the last 12 games of the regular season or the playoffs and had already been replaced by Douglas last season. 
• Hyde and Poyer had some injuries, and both had significantly slowed down.  If one or both were starters this season, they would be targeted by every DC.
• Floyd's 10.5 sacks will be missed.  At best, Miller comes back better in 2024 than he was last season, and that hole at least closes if it doesn't disappear.
• Dodson backed up Bernard, but Bernard should be healthy and Matt Milano should be returning, too.
• I think that Morse might be missed at center and/or McGovern at guard but the OTs and the other OG are solid.  McGovern's replacement at G was on the team last season.
• Both Diggs and G.Davis weren't big contributors in the second half of the season or in the playoffs.   Both seemed to have lost the ability to make clutch plays in 2023.  The Bills will miss Diggs' 1000+ yards, but not necessarily him.   Davis was certainly not worth the $13 million the Jags are paying him.
• I don't think that the Bills were looking to replace Diggs and G Davis spot for spot.  I think they want a WR corp that is sure handed and can catch passes in the middle of the field and in the red zone. 
• R Davis is a nice addition to the RB group behind Cook and Johnson as both a runner and pass catcher.

 

I was OK with most of the offseason moves listed above, and was completely expecting them.

There were three specific decisions though which make me question Beane's thought-process.

1.  Cutting Mitch Morse

2.  Only restructuring some of Josh Allen's contract

3.  Trading Stefon Diggs for future assets, then only replacing him with a 2nd Round rookie

 

I understand the concept of not mortgaging the future (draft picks, cap space) in order to make a big splash.  We did that once with Von Miller and it didn't work out.  But this was downgrading the present team, in order to load up for years down the road.  

 

Hopefully I'm wrong and the Bills will be fine.  

 

Edited May 10 by mjt328

[billsfan89]

28 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I was OK with most of the offseason moves listed above, and was completely expecting them.

There were three specific decisions though which make me question Beane's thought-process.

1.  Cutting Mitch Morse

2.  Only restructuring some of Josh Allen's contract

3.  Trading Stefon Diggs for future assets, then only replacing him with a 2nd Round rookie

 

I understand the concept of not mortgaging the future (draft picks, cap space) in order to make a big splash.  We did that once with Von Miller and it didn't work out.  But this was downgrading the present team, in order to load up for years down the road.  

 

Hopefully I'm wrong and the Bills will be fine.  

 

I think them restructuring part of Josh’s contract was smart, it makes the deal better long term and they can still restructure the rest if something pops up or the money is needed. The Mitch one I agree with but they possibly got lucky with Van Pran falling to them. 
 

As far as Diggs yeah that one is a step back for sure. As much as I love Keon he’s not gonna make up for Diggs most likely.

[Big Blitz]

 

And nothing less. 

[GASabresIUFan]

29 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

3.  Trading Stefon Diggs for future assets, then only replacing him with a 2nd Round rookie

This isn’t accurate.  Coleman is an upgrade on Davis.  Odds are that either Samuel or Shakir will line up in Diggs’ old position. The rationale for Samuel is his raw speed and similar size to Diggs and some experience on the boundary.  The rationale for Shakir is his nearly identical size and speed to Diggs coupled with his track record of being more explosive than Diggs once he catches the ball. Remember Diggs’ career yards per reception is about 12 vs. Shakir’s 15+.

[NewEra]

It’s a transition from old heads to young heads.  
 

biggest losses:  

Poyer and Hyde.  2024 Bishop is likely better than the 2023 versions of P&H.  Younger and cheaper.  

 

Tre-  he’s not a loss- we’ve gotten nothing from him for 3 straight seasons including the playoffs. Cheaper

 

Morse-  could be the biggest loss, I don’t think the combination of Edwards/SVPG is too much of a downgrade.  Younger and cheaper 
 

Diggs and Gabe-  diggs was a detriment to the team the second half of the year.  I was one of his biggest supporters down the stretch but the dude just didn’t get it done.  I’d rather have both Samuel and Keon over Gabe 💯.  Neither are Diggs but both can be what Diggs was in Brady’s offense last season.  Hollins > trent.  Also got younger and cheaper.

 

Phillips- settle- Linval-  traded out for Carter,Johnson and Williams-  I’ll take this years 3 over last years.  Younger and cheaper.  
 

floyd -(&shaq)  when our d was at its best last season, he was flying around making plays.  Then the last 1/3 of the season happened.  His play declined dramatically and he saved his most invisible game of the year for the finale vs KC.  Shaq was a jag.  Replaced with Von, Smoot and Soloman.  

^^^^^^^^^^. 

This is what worries me most. Will we be able to create pressure on opposing QBs?  Pass rush is where I’d look for help if there’s any help to be had.  Can Rousseau and AJ each take their level up a notch?  Did we strike gold with soloman?  Can Von even be 75% of his old self?  I think this is what will eventually make or break our season.  Last season we were top 5 in sacks.  We need to stay in the top 10 and disrupt the 

QB in the playoffs.  

[DrPJax]

On 5/1/2024 at 9:05 AM, uticaclub said:

The expectation for the Bills should be a championship, but the realistic expectation is a division championship and a second-round exit, as it has been in previous years. I believe it is more likely that Josh Allen will force a trade after 2025 instead of accepting a contract extension here. Even though he claims to love Buffalo, his ultimate goal is to win a championship. There is a reason why Allen did not take the full restructure, so that too much money wasn't pushed to the future, and he could potentially leave before his contract is up.

Ever heard of something called the franchise tag?  Ridiculous premise to begin with, but Allen is either playing for the bills in that time frame, or he’s joining the pga tour. 

[GreggTX]

I do expect a bit of a dropoff, but I like this rookie class and we are set up for an even better draft next year. Our day is coming.

[JerseyBills]

SB or Bust

[CSBill]

Realistic "Transition Year" Expectations = Super Bowl !!!!

[uticaclub]

7 hours ago, DrPJax said:

Ever heard of something called the franchise tag?  Ridiculous premise to begin with, but Allen is either playing for the bills in that time frame, or he’s joining the pga tour. 

He wouldn’t be eligible for the franchise tag as his contract would not be up; but as we have seen throughout sports players can force trades. The Bills would actually save money on the cap in 2026 & they would receive the biggest haul ever. I do NOT want to see this happen, but it could, especially after 2 more early playoffs exits where Josh plays perfectly while coaching and the defense blows it, again

[Mat68]

Standard still the standard.  When Buffalo went on the winning streak only a few starters are not back.  More importantly only a few players from outside the organization are looking to start.

 

 Offense Morse, Davis and Diggs.  Edwards and Mcgovern the change on the oline.  Edwards, new to the line up but played and knows the system.  Shakir for diggs or Davis.  Played a lot down the stretch.  So you have only Coleman or Samuel starting who wasnt on the team last year.

 

Defense starter lost Floyd and Poyer from the line up.  Miller and Eponesa been on the team for years.  Only new starter to the defense will be Bishop or Edwards.  
 

It seems like a massive over haul.  In reality the amount of players brought in from outside the organization to start is some of the least in the NFL.  The top 2 picks Coleman and Bishop are competing with higher quality free agents brought in Samuel and Edwards for the open starting spot.  Which ever player wins the other will be a package player and see the field a lot.  
 

Looking at the overall roster and what they were in December and January its impressive.  Shaving all that cap gaining future assets but also maintaining the majority of the line up.  Offense and defense both shifted last season.  The organization embraced it and got younger.   

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Standard still the standard.  When Buffalo went on the winning streak only a few starters are not back.  More importantly only a few players from outside the organization are looking to start.

 

 Offense Morse, Davis and Diggs.  Edwards and Mcgovern the change on the oline.  Edwards, new to the line up but played and knows the system.  Shakir for diggs or Davis.  Played a lot down the stretch.  So you have only Coleman or Samuel starting who wasnt on the team last year.

 

Defense starter lost Floyd and Poyer from the line up.  Miller and Eponesa been on the team for years.  Only new starter to the defense will be Bishop or Edwards.  
 

It seems like a massive over haul.  In reality the amount of players brought in from outside the organization to start is some of the least in the NFL.  The top 2 picks Coleman and Bishop are competing with higher quality free agents brought in Samuel and Edwards for the open starting spot.  Which ever player wins the other will be a package player and see the field a lot.  
 

Looking at the overall roster and what they were in December and January its impressive.  Shaving all that cap gaining future assets but also maintaining the majority of the line up.  Offense and defense both shifted last season.  The organization embraced it and got younger.   

So your saying with all this sameness, we should be able to count on making the playoffs and bowing out in the divisional round? or some other expectation? 

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

So your saying with all this sameness, we should be able to count on making the playoffs and bowing out in the divisional round? or some other expectation? 

They are not worst than that team.  They have better depth on defense than that team.  Depth was what costed them in playoffs vs KC. 

[90sBills]

13 hours ago, DrPJax said:

Ever heard of something called the franchise tag?  Ridiculous premise to begin with, but Allen is either playing for the bills in that time frame, or he’s joining the pga tour. 

Guarantee if he’s good enough he’d do it in a heartbeat. Much longer career and higher earning potential with significantly less damage to the body. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

They are not worst than that team.  They have better depth on defense than that team.  Depth was what costed them in playoffs vs KC. 

Step up and tell us what this means in terms of expected results.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Methinks that they have to find a way to win the East. Fighting for a WC amongst improved competition is dicey to me. I expect 10-7, and it depends on what version of Aaron Rogers shows up in NY whether we win the division or not.  If not, we,re in the dreaded “in the hunt” graphic into December, and the schedule and injuries will determine who gets into the dance. 

On 5/2/2024 at 6:00 PM, Meatloaf63 said:

Bishop will be an upgrade, Rapp played a lot of downs, Benford was a starter Douglas is an upgrade over white. Jackson is easily replaceable . Mcdermott could not of screwed Elam up worse, hopefully he actually works with the kid and gets something out of him. He’s flashed enough to show coaching decisions have been harmful. They could choose to add to this group after June 1st and probably should in case of injury. the starting group is more than capable.

Rapp played a lot of AWFUL downs, but made one play to make people think he’s anything but a backup 

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Step up and tell us what this means in terms of expected results.

Back at the gates in the playoffs vs Mahomes.  I think they beat em and win it all.  I like the offense and defense and how they match up vs KC and Cinncy.  With Allen its on Beane and the team to get to gates.  It is on Allen to figure out how to get past them imo.   

[ColoradoBills]

20 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

I was OK with most of the offseason moves listed above, and was completely expecting them.

There were three specific decisions though which make me question Beane's thought-process.

1.  Cutting Mitch Morse

2.  Only restructuring some of Josh Allen's contract

3.  Trading Stefon Diggs for future assets, then only replacing him with a 2nd Round rookie

 

I understand the concept of not mortgaging the future (draft picks, cap space) in order to make a big splash.  We did that once with Von Miller and it didn't work out.  But this was downgrading the present team, in order to load up for years down the road.  

 

Hopefully I'm wrong and the Bills will be fine.  

 

 

Beane restructured most of Josh's cap hit.  You can't do it all every year.

Bills are not unique doing this.  The Chiefs and Rams are not taking out all the money from their QBs either.

[uticaclub]

38 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Back at the gates in the playoffs vs Mahomes.  I think they beat em and win it all.  I like the offense and defense and how they match up vs KC and Cinncy.  With Allen its on Beane and the team to get to gates.  It is on Allen to figure out how to get past them imo.   

It's on Allen to give up less than 8 yards a carry?