It really comes down to Brady

[The Jokeman]

5 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Why would it come down to Tom Brady?

Find on May 5th on Netflix when the Roast of Tom Brady airs...https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10119118-tom-brady-to-be-roasted-by-randy-moss-gronk-bledsoe-edelman-for-netflix-special

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, Blainorama5 said:

I think Brady's going to try to run the ball even more this season.... bigger WRs (Coleman, our FAs) and younger tough running RBs (Davis) will help that cause.  Preserve Josh this year as much as possible during a competitive but "transitional" year.  The only way Josh has a long career, imho - is with a VERY healthy running game.  No magic foresight there obviously, but I imagine that's the plan, by OBD.

 

But what do I know ??

I agree, in order to transition to Josh's peak years (28-33), Brady will slightly increase the run attack. This will buy Josh some longevity.  Routes will be short to intermediate.  I know we have speed in guys like Samuel, Hamler & Isabella but you saw how ineffective Harty was last year. I still don't believe this team has a Chase/Waddle "go route" guy.  Coleman will fill an important role and become a very good WR2.  But we'll have to do it in 2024 without a true #1.  And that may just work out?

[Einstein's Dog]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

To me we have plenty of offensive talent, led by the most dynamic QB and dynamic player in the league.  I am encouraged by what I saw from Brady last year, but he must continue to improve.  He must continue to alter things week by week so opposing defenses can’t predict what’s going on, which is what ultimately cost Dorsey his job.  He must maximize Josh. I think he can, but time will tell.  Let’s hope he’s up to the task.

The talent we have is decent.  And it would work for almost any QB.  But therein lies the problem, Josh Allen is not any QB!  Give the man two legitimate outside WRs!  Stop trying to have Josh outdo Brock Purdy and Mac Jones/Zach Wilson with the dink and dunk.

 

Brady made do with what he had last year.  He adjusted the offense to hide G Davis who singlehandedly got Dorsey fired.  Brady was also given permission to unleash Josh's running- which was a decision made during desperate times.

 

But in order to properly judge J Brady's abilities he should be supplied with a full arsenal of weapons.   This should include one top tier veteran WR (sorry C Samuel).  Then the offense should be dynamic, and if it then isn't Brady should be held accountable.

[Chaos]

Bills have not had any problems during the regular season on offseason for the last five years.  The coaches don't know how to elevate the defense in the playoffs against good offenses.  Joe Brady will not be solving the main problem.

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The talent we have is decent.  And it would work for almost any QB.  But therein lies the problem, Josh Allen is not any QB!  Give the man two legitimate outside WRs!  Stop trying to have Josh outdo Brock Purdy and Mac Jones/Zach Wilson with the dink and dunk.

 

Brady made do with what he had last year.  He adjusted the offense to hide G Davis who singlehandedly got Dorsey fired.  Brady was also given permission to unleash Josh's running- which was a decision made during desperate times.

 

But in order to properly judge J Brady's abilities he should be supplied with a full arsenal of weapons.   This should include one top tier veteran WR (sorry C Samuel).  Then the offense should be dynamic, and if it then isn't Brady should be held accountable.

I've said it before, but I always knew Einstein's dog wrote all his papers.

[billsfan89]

I am interested to see how Brady molds the offense no Diggs and different continuity. But I am also interested to see if the Bills make any additions once Tre’s money hits? Do they add a piece at WR or DE? There’s some decent options on the market and the Bills will have space to work with. I feel there’s one more consequential signing left but not sure where they go on the market.

[ChevyVanMiller]

12 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Why would it come down to Tom Brady?

Not Tom, Greg.

 

[MasterStrategist]

5 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The talent we have is decent.  And it would work for almost any QB.  But therein lies the problem, Josh Allen is not any QB!  Give the man two legitimate outside WRs!  Stop trying to have Josh outdo Brock Purdy and Mac Jones/Zach Wilson with the dink and dunk.

 

Brady made do with what he had last year.  He adjusted the offense to hide G Davis who singlehandedly got Dorsey fired.  Brady was also given permission to unleash Josh's running- which was a decision made during desperate times.

 

But in order to properly judge J Brady's abilities he should be supplied with a full arsenal of weapons.   This should include one top tier veteran WR (sorry C Samuel).  Then the offense should be dynamic, and if it then isn't Brady should be held accountable.

It isn't just about having 2 dynamic boundary players.  It's about being able to attack all areas/zones of the field effectively.  

 

Chiefs and Bengals were both bottom 10 teams in Avg Depth per Target (adot) and Yards before catch (ybc).  But they also gained ALOT of YAC and effectively hit on "intermediate" areas of the field.  Yes, Burrow missed some time so we can take some of that into consideration, but it's still their persona to work all areas.

 

Point is, if Brady can design better schemes and a better intermediate passing game then we'll be very successful.  We have 4 guys that should hit those intermediate areas very well.  

 

Our achilles heal LY ( 2 things were):

1.  Cover 2 defenses/with a strong front 4.  Aka the Jets and others

2. Press man teams, aka the Chiefs and others

 

We need to be able to attack deep too, but in order to beat these coverages above (without Josh having to scramble consistently, esp vs man) is to find guys who can either create separation, via speed/route running or physicality.  We added 2 weapons, in Samuel and Coleman, who excel at both and bring YAC.  Shakir and Kincaid are going to be better this year, especially Kincaid.  And hopefully a healthy Knox.

 

No problem being a ball control offense, if it's not solely dependent on Josh's legs.  IMO, Diggs lost a step/perhaps poor effort LY, and Davis has never been an intermediate threat consistently.  

 

I think this years offense will be more difficult to defend, due to complementary skill sets and Brady taking over with a full offseason to install his scheme.  Dorsey was a smart guy, but seemed to have some ADHD in his playcalling, which never had any rhythm or identity. We saw Brady "inherit" Dorseys scheme and show a much better knack for setting an identity and get the offense in rhythm.  Can't imagine that he won't improve with his own design and playbook.

[Big Blitz]

Draft Shakir in fantasy.  
 

 

If his targets double - why wouldn’t they; from 45 in 2023 to say 90 minimum - he’s a 1300 yard WR.  

 

If that happens and Kincaid continues his ascent, this is going to be a top 3 offense in the league.   
 

Coleman and Kincaid will be red zone monsters.  
 

 

That’s just me trusting processes.  

[Rocky Landing]

I'm currently on hiatus from my job, and so I've been re-watching a bunch of games from last season (condensed on NFL+), and I have to say-- the Bills are going to be a very different team without Stefon Diggs. It's unquestionable that he fell off at the end of the season. To my eyes it looked like he just wasn't trying as hard. But all that notwithstanding, there isn't anybody on this team to match his ability. But while Diggs fell off at the end of the season, as did Gabe Davis, quite frankly, others sure did step up. Shakir, Kincaid, Cook, and Ty Johnson all became markedly better as the season progressed. 

 

And not for nothing, the ascendence of those players (especially Johnson, and Shakir) did seem to coincide with Brady becoming OC. 

 

14 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve been thinking about how the offense will evolve. At a very basic level I’d expect to see a short yardage and RZ package with 21 personnel including Coleman. Longer yardage and longer field personnel we might see more 11 with WRs and TE determined by matchups. Obviously nothing earth shattering in that. Just thinking about when we’d see different players on the field. 

I think you mean 12 personnel? 1 RB, and 2 TEs.

Edited May 1 by Rocky Landing

[Beck Water]

14 hours ago, Sharky7337 said:

Going to disagree here. The talent is an issue because most of it is unproven we have 0 players with a 1000 yard receiving season.

 

Oh, great, we now have the next useless metric to go along with the QB 300 yd passing game (remember when Allen sucked after we went to the playoffs in 2019 because he hadn't had one)?

 

Stefon Diggs didn't have a 1000 yd season until his 4th season in Minny.  He was still a good, proven player after his rookie year, even though he only had 720 yds or 849 yds.

Cole Beasley in his 11 year NFL career had 0 1000 yd receiving seasons

 

Now I might understand what you might be getting at.  We want to see Curtis Samuel surpass his previous 851 yd best season, and not have the 650-ish he had the last 2 years.  We want to see Shakir surpass the 39 receptions and 611 yds he had last year.  We need Kincaid to surpass his 73 reception, 673 yd rookie year.  We need production from Coleman in his rookie year.   And while we're at it, would be nice if Knox would return to his 50-ish receptions for 500-ish yards of '21 and '22 instead of the <200 yds we got from him last year.   We need Cook to keep up his contributions of 400-ish yards or step up a bit.

 

'Cuz if we get 600 yds from Coleman and 2023-ish production from everyone else, we're gonna be looking at a ~3,100 yd passing year.

On the other hand, if Coleman manages 600 yds and the rest somehow manage an extra 900 yds between the 5 of them (like 180 yds apiece) then we'll be good.

 

 

[PBF81]

In Brady's first two games as OC his offense averaged 33 points.

 

In his last five games it averaged a perfectly average 21.8.

 

The pressure's on.  

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

11 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Find on May 5th on Netflix when the Roast of Tom Brady airs...https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10119118-tom-brady-to-be-roasted-by-randy-moss-gronk-bledsoe-edelman-for-netflix-special

 

No way Brady participates without final edit approval baked in. That guy is NOT a "good sport" when it comes to humor/criticism. The tone and tenor will be celebratory of his accomplishments but a little critical of Brady's hyper-competitiveness. They probably won't even mention his scandals (except in passing absurdity) or pseudo-scientific/nonsense TB12 brand. 

[Matt_In_NH]

19 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

The league would love to have a big market NYC area team in the big game. Especially one that hasn't been in one since 1969.

If they script it they can just do whatever….

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I think you mean 12 personnel? 1 RB, and 2 TEs.

I do. Thanks.

[TH3]

22 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

We’ve witnessed the usual stuff post-draft.  The second guessing of everything Beane did vs. those praising him to the heavens.  Constant arguments about 40 times and gauntlet drills and on and on and on ad nauseum.  How we needed to draft a speed guy even though there are several on the roster.  On and on and on.

 

But the most important thing that will determine the success of guys like Coleman, what will determine the team’s success, is Joe Brady.  He is charged with putting the guys he has in a position to get open, whether that be short throws or long. People are talking about how teams will clog the middle because we don’t have sideline receivers or guys that can go deep.  While I would argue that, it’s on Brady to make sure we do by the packages and route trees he designs. He is also charged with getting Josh on board with finding open guys and getting them the ball.

 

To me we have plenty of offensive talent, led by the most dynamic QB and dynamic player in the league.  I am encouraged by what I saw from Brady last year, but he must continue to improve.  He must continue to alter things week by week so opposing defenses can’t predict what’s going on, which is what ultimately cost Dorsey his job.  He must maximize Josh. I think he can, but time will tell.  Let’s hope he’s up to the task.

Bills will score plenty of points. In the last bit it’s been a not ready and young team, bad defense, a cursed season that ran out of gas, and a decimated D and a bad kicker…..

Bills will contend….The Chiefs can overcome curve balls…..The other contenders have to stay away from bad luck and maybe get some good luck. 

[Beck Water]

I've been digging around for breakdowns and analysis of Joe Brady's offense and this seemed like a good place to share.

 

Breakdown of his gameplan vs Jets last fall

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlsVfKrS9TQ
Kurt Warner QB Confidential analyze Brady game plan Bills vs Jets

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUfXEIL_N6c
Cover1 on Bills vs KC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fOIetvLoiM

 

 

Assessment of his passing game concepts as LSU Passing Game Coordinator
Cover1
https://www.cover1.net/lsu-bunch-formation-passing-concepts-film-analysis/

 

More concepts from LSU offense
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq0QNqjh5JE

 

 

A look at why Joe Brady's offense failed in Carolina

https://www.si.com/nfl/panthers/gm-report/a-look-at-why-the-joe-brady-experiment-failed

 

Welcome any more finds anyone has with insight into how Joe Brady might shape the Bills 2024 offense

 

Where I am so far:

1) don't expect LSU's offense.  He had Ja'Mar Chase and Justin Jefferson.  We don't have Ja'Mar Chase and Justin Jefferson.

2) overall thoughts seem to be Brady was too vanilla in Carolina - not enough "eye candy" or pre-snap motion. But whether one can pull that off and make it effective, ultimately depends upon the player personnel to Do Their Job, too.

3) at the end of last season, it was very clear that Brady's offense ran more.  

Under Dorsey, rush snaps were 42%.  Under Brady, 52%.  

But, a big part of that were Josh Allen's rush snaps increasing from ~4 per game to ~ 9 per game.  In 2022, Josh was 8 A/G; prior to that low of 6.5 high of 7.4.

 a) does this represent a change in philosophy to a run-first team, or

 b) Brady making the best use of the pieces and plays he had available mid-season? or

 c) trying to give Allen's shoulder sprain some rest so it could heal up?
4) Greg Cosell and others have commented about a switch to "big receivers". with Dalton Kincaid and now Keon Coleman.  But we still have plenty of smaller receivers on the team -

-Curtis Samuel 5'11 195 4.3 40-time

-Khalil Shakir 6'0 196 4.43 40 time and 29" arms;

-KJ Hamler 5'9" 178 reported 4.27 40-time (oft-injured dark horse; 2020 2nd round pick #46)

-Andy Isabella 5'9" 5'8 3/4 29 3/4" arms 4.31 40-time (never-productive darker horse, 2019 2nd round pick #62)

Are we switching to big receivers, or just trying to fill a gap in what we've previously had, which is a collection of smurfs and average guys?

 

I think it would be a mistake for the Bills to try to run more.  Bills finished the 2023 season #5 in attempts and #7 in rush yards.  That would be an amalgam of a very pass-centric early season and a run-centric 2nd season.  We also finished #8 in passing yards, which is similar to 2022 (8) and 2021 (9) vs 2020 when we were 3rd.

In rush yards we were 20th in 2020, 6th in 2021, 9th 9n 2022, 7th in 2023.  But a lot of those rush yards were on the back of Josh Allen, and a good fraction of Allen's runs are scrambles.  I would like to see the Bills develop a more effective run game that does not involve Allen, for the sake of his longievity.

 

Thoughts?  Knowledge of what Brady did as pass game coordinator at LSU and tried to do in Carolina? 

More assessment of what he did last season?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregg]

14 hours ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

Not Tom, Greg.

 

 

What about.

 

 

[Beck Water]

On 4/30/2024 at 7:20 AM, BarleyNY said:

I’ve been thinking about how the offense will evolve. At a very basic level I’d expect to see a short yardage and RZ package with 12 personnel including Coleman. Longer yardage and longer field personnel we might see more 11 with WRs and TE determined by matchups. Obviously nothing earth shattering in that. Just thinking about when we’d see different players on the field. 

 

You initially said 21 (2 rb, 1 TE) then corrected that you meant 12 (1 RB, 2 TE).  But a red zone package with 2 backs may actually be a thing.  Recall we have Reggie Gilliam, who is a decent receiver (77.8% catch rate) and a pretty effective lead blocker on runs as well.

I think it's going to depend upon how Kincaid's blocking chops develop this season - he may be an effective red zone target, but last year he wasn't effective blocking in the compressed space of the RZ, more so blocking downfield where it's more a question of "just get in the way for a moment", he did that pretty well.  So as of last year, if Kincaid was on the field in the RZ in a 12 set, that made it effectively more of a 11 set with 3 receivers if that makes sense?  But if his blocking takes a step, then we could easily see more 12.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 4/30/2024 at 7:54 AM, oldmanfan said:

We’ve witnessed the usual stuff post-draft.  The second guessing of everything Beane did vs. those praising him to the heavens.  Constant arguments about 40 times and gauntlet drills and on and on and on ad nauseum.  How we needed to draft a speed guy even though there are several on the roster.  On and on and on.

 

But the most important thing that will determine the success of guys like Coleman, what will determine the team’s success, is Joe Brady.  He is charged with putting the guys he has in a position to get open, whether that be short throws or long. People are talking about how teams will clog the middle because we don’t have sideline receivers or guys that can go deep.  While I would argue that, it’s on Brady to make sure we do by the packages and route trees he designs. He is also charged with getting Josh on board with finding open guys and getting them the ball.

 

To me we have plenty of offensive talent, led by the most dynamic QB and dynamic player in the league.  I am encouraged by what I saw from Brady last year, but he must continue to improve.  He must continue to alter things week by week so opposing defenses can’t predict what’s going on, which is what ultimately cost Dorsey his job.  He must maximize Josh. I think he can, but time will tell.  Let’s hope he’s up to the task.

It will come down to Brady and the O-line. It all starts in the trenches. Give Josh long enough and he’ll find the open guy. Torrence is going into his sophomore year and looks to be a good one. Brady also had 2 legit weapons at TE and a top 5 RB. More than enough talent to scheme up a respectable squad. 

On 4/30/2024 at 8:43 AM, Gregg said:

 

The league will push for Rodgers and the Jets assuming (BIG IF HERE) the 40-year-old can stay healthy

Jets will definitely be in the mix. I think they nab a wildcard spot. Definitely a team I wouldn’t want to see in the playoffs since we seem to matchup w/ them horribly. A competent QB would’ve swept us the past 3 years. It is a big “IF”