THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Reloading

[Paup 1995MVP]

22 hours ago, amprov56 said:

Thank you great post Bill Polian once said the Buffalo Bills historically hang on to players on the downward slope simply because they are fan favorites. Sammy Watkins caused an emotional breakdown among many much like Diggs! Great post 

Thank you.  And I like the Bill Polian and Sammy Watkins references..

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 4/30/2024 at 1:20 PM, Shaw66 said:

I think you're both saying the same things:  Diggs was a premier receiver for several years, and he certainly was a key part of the offense.  It's not very likely that we're going to see that kind of production in many coming seasons.  

 

And although I get that Diggs might simply be past the point where he can be again what he was, I expect a good year from him.  He had special motivation when he came to Buffalo.   He was motivated to show that the problem in Minnesota was Minnesota.   2024 he will be motivated in the same sense, to prove it wasn't him, it was Buffalo.  I think the fire that burns in him has been reignited.  The problem for Diggs is that his body's ability to respond to the fire is declining.  

Good point Shaw.  It will be interesting to see what he brings to the Texans, who have a good young QB (even though he is a Buckeye) and a pretty good ascending team.  I look forward to us playing them this year.  

 

I am very excited about the Bills this upcoming season.  A change of a lot of players will bring some new juice and feel to the team.  Things get stale after a while.  We did not win a championship with the previous group.  So lets see what this new group can do.

On 4/30/2024 at 11:04 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sugar coating it. I am just not yet ready to say he is done. Maybe he was disinterested. Maybe he was nicked up. He'd definitely fallen out with Josh. He might be done. Or he might rebound in different circumstances. Neither of those would surprise me. 

It will be interesting to see what the 2024 model of Stefan Diggs looks and plays like.

[Olliemets]

Outstanding post. Thank you. I'm 65 and the older I've gotten the more I fully appreciate the coaching/systems angle. In Hockey, Footfall, Basketball.

 

One reason I prefer college hoops over the NBA. The players come and go annually (moreso now with NIL and Portal), but the same coaches and programs are consistently good, It's the team and system...not the individuals and good coaches and programs instill this. Football differs a bit in that the QB is such a unique position, but  we're lucky to have a 5 star guy. 

 

Am I the biggest McD fan? No. But I concur with the overall sentiment in this post. We were in a worse position age and cap wise than our competitors, and this past draft is a reset. I'm fine with it.

 

The Branch Rickey quote is still one of the best sports quotes over for GMS 

 

"Better to move a player a year too early then a year too late"

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 4/30/2024 at 10:38 AM, harmonkillebrew said:

I don't know what happened second half of last year to Diggs, but I don't put it on him alone. I think Brady's scheme and play calling and a lack of a real #2 were as much to blame. With Davis hitting FA, I would have liked to see Coleman added to pair WITH Diggs, not try and replace him.  Now that would have been a WR room - Diggs, Keon, Samuel and Shakir! Could have given DCs fits. 

 

But I think they probably did well to move on from Diggs. They just should have done more to address WR. Our WR room already needed an upgrade with Davis not producing consistently, but then when he left and then they also traded Diggs, more was needed. 

 

Love your username.  You must be a big Twins fan.  I remember him as a real young kid.  

 

I agree about doing more to address the WR position.  I was disappointed that we did not double dip on another potential big time WR in the first few rounds of the draft.  But I think after June 1st with the money coming free from the Tre White contract, we can try and add someone decent at the position.  I have always liked Tyler Boyd from Cincinnati.  And I am sure there are several other guys who can help us out on the market still as well.  But I am excited about Keon Coleman.  He is going to be a big timer. 

[Stranded in Boston]

On 4/29/2024 at 10:34 PM, Shaw66 said:

And I don't particularly like a plan that says "we need a player, and we'll take two to be sure we get one who works out."  You're almost certainly not going to keep both of them, so you're using two picks to fill one position.  Not a fan of that, but I can't say it's wrong.  

 

I hear you, Shaw. I had an uneasy feeling on draft day with all of Bills' fandom calling for a double-dip at WR -- and then I realized why. In the past, it seemed that every time the Bills double-dipped to fill a need, one or both of the pair didn't work out. Take Tom Ruud & Bob Nelson; Robert Holt & Mike Mosley; John McCargo & Kyle Williams; Greg Rousseau & Boogie Basham. Some of those names are probably unfamiliar to you younger guys -- but that's the point: they never panned out! Anyhow, I'm glad the Bills followed their draft board. We'll hit on some of the rookies and miss on others this year, but overall it looks some really good players in that group.

But thanks for the write-up, Shaw. Always a pleasure to read! 

[Green Lightning]

On 4/29/2024 at 9:16 PM, Beast said:

I don’t care what anyone says. This team is MUCH better than the one that took the field and lost to the Chiefs last January.

 

The Bills are going to be a load this season. Buckle up!

 

 

Jesus Beavis, calm down. Lot's of moving parts have to go right.  This year will be a process.  I don't expect they will be "much better" off the jump.

[Beast]

31 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Jesus Beavis, calm down. Lot's of moving parts have to go right.  This year will be a process.  I don't expect they will be "much better" off the jump.

Yeah, I mean how could they not be better. They’ll only have Milano and Bernard back on the field, a healthy secondary, and their two top receivers have contribute a whopping 3 catches for 21 yards and the other will have to be healthy enough to suit up.

 

Such a tall task.

 

 

[Beck Water]

On 4/29/2024 at 8:38 PM, Lost said:

I woulda rather ran our RB room back with Cook/Ty Johnson and using that 4th rd pick on another WR.   As it is it seems like we're putting an awful lot of stock into Coleman devolping into a #1 receiver this season and Shakir into a number 2.  Id like a little more insurance than that.

 

Thing is, keep in mind we went into last season with Cook, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray.  Ty Johnson was on the practice squad and became an injury replacement for Harris before Game 7.   Latavius Murray getting stem cell injections to try to eke another season out of his 34 yr old body; Harris retired; and Ty Johnson was less effective than either Murray or Harris (13 ypg vs 20 or 15).  And it's not like Johnson was a rookie - that was his 5th year in the league.

 

So if we want to run the ball effectively, and we don't want our #2 RB to be named Josh Allen, we can't "run our RB room" back with Cook and Johnson.  We need more running backs to stay in the same place.

 

I hear you on the "more insurance", but I think Beane may be looking at it as - how much insurance does a WR you draft at the end of the 4th round truly provide?  And then, is it significant additional insurance above and beyond what our 5th round pick Shorter, 2 UDFA Shavers and Thompson, the two vet 2nd rounders Hamler and Isabella, and now 3 year vet Quintez Cephus, provide?

 

I think it's possible that Beane had a WR he liked higher up in the 4th and was trying to move up into the first 10 picks to grab one of the cluster of WR who went in the first half of the 4th, but it takes two and sounds like no one was buying what he was selling.  I think I caught something about trying to move up but no one was interested (of course, there were a cluster of other RBs drafted in the 4th and some other positions, so who knows what he wanted).

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

I think it's possible that Beane had a WR he liked higher up in the 4th and was trying to move up into the first 10 picks to grab one of the cluster of WR who went in the first half of the 4th, but it takes two and sounds like no one was buying what he was selling.  I think I caught something about trying to move up but no one was interested (of course, there were a cluster of other RBs drafted in the 4th and some other positions, so who knows what he wanted).

I don't recall anything from Beane about moving up in the fourth.  He said he wanted to move up in the second to get Bishop, but he couldn't find a dance partner.  Fortunately, Bishop fell to him. 

[Beck Water]

On 4/29/2024 at 9:34 PM, Shaw66 said:

Yeah.   There are many ways to skin the cat.  They did need a running back, and they got a guy who might have what it takes to replace Cook eventually.  And I don't particularly like a plan that says "we need a player, and we'll take two to be sure we get one who works out."  You're almost certainly not going to keep both of them, so you're using two picks to fill one position.  Not a fan of that, but I can't say it's wrong.  

 

I agree with both bolded points. In recent history, Rousseau and Basham come to mind.  I think one reason it doesn't work out so well to double dip is illustrated in that pairing; there's a tendency, I think, to hedge one's bets in other ways than numerically.   Rousseau was the high ceiling, low floor "boom or bust" guy.  Basham was supposed to be the more NFL-ready 3-year starter with draft notes about his technique, explosiveness, and "plan", the high-floor low ceiling guy.  But coming from a lower level of competition (I think? Wake Forest?) his floor wasn't high enough.

 

On 4/29/2024 at 9:34 PM, Shaw66 said:

Going your way, they would need a running back in free agency.  Going the way they did, they would need a receiver.  Kind of six of one, half dozen of the other.  

 

True.  But I think part of Beane's choice to draft an RB, would be that the RB room has 3 returning vets in Cook (3rd year) Ty Johnson (6th year) and Reggie Gilliam (5th year).

 

The WR room on the other hand just lost two leaders in Diggs and Davis.  We do have Shakir in his 3rd year and journeyman vet Mack Hollis.  But that may have been a factor in choosing to go the FA route at WR

 

And I think it's likely we'll add a vet RB in FA as well.

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't recall anything from Beane about moving up in the fourth.  He said he wanted to move up in the second to get Bishop, but he couldn't find a dance partner.  Fortunately, Bishop fell to him. 

 

I think the bit about moving up in the 2nd was in his Day 2 post-draft presser.  The bit about 'wanting to move up but you can't always find a partner' was in his final, draft-wrap up, post Day 3 presser.  He didn't specifically say "in the 4th", but....we had 4 picks in the 5th, and he wound up outright trading our 2nd 5th for a 2025 4th.  I don't think it's a huge surmise that there may have been more players he wanted to draft in the 4th than in the 5th, where he flipped one to next year.

 

It's not a surprise that Beane would want to move up in later rounds; wanting to move up in later rounds as well as the 1st is a fairly frequent Beane MO.

[amprov56]

22 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Billy's still alive, so far as I know.   I hope he doesn't mind that I use his name and number.   I chose the name to honor and remember one of the all-time great Bills.  

 

And yes, 1968 was an awful year.  So awful that the Bills got the #1 overall pick.

Living in Toccoa,, Georgia!

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Beast said:

Yeah, I mean how could they not be better. They’ll only have Milano and Bernard back on the field, a healthy secondary, and their two top receivers have contribute a whopping 3 catches for 21 yards and the other will have to be healthy enough to suit up.

 

Such a tall task.

 

 

You know, what you say is such good example of the fact that there different ways to look at a team.   It's absolutely correct - how could the team be in a worse position now than they were then.   They are much better off, physically.   Of course, the real question is the roster as good today as it was a year ago at this time?   That takes Bernard and Milano out of the comparison, and the secondary, too.  

 

Depends when you look.   Nevertheless, I think your take is correct.   That team last year won 5 out of six down the stretch - or whatever - to make the playoffs and win the division, and they did with the team you describe.  If those guys, in that shape, could be that good, these guys have a chance to be much better.  

[harmonkillebrew]

16 hours ago, Beast said:

Yeah, I mean how could they not be better. They’ll only have Milano and Bernard back on the field, a healthy secondary, and their two top receivers have contribute a whopping 3 catches for 21 yards and the other will have to be healthy enough to suit up.

 

Such a tall task.

 

 

You think there won't be injuries by the time we get to the playoffs.  Bernard worries me as a smaller guy who is always around the ball and plays aggressively. Milano and Daquan have injury histories. We're unproven at Safety and thin at CB. 

We missed Davis against KC, but he was otherwise a consistent part of the team during the win streak. Diggs too, even if his production was low. Teams consistently doubled Diggs and put their top CB on Davis, opening up opportunities for other guys like Shakir. Diggs and Davis are gone, so we'll see how Ds react. Might be a blessing to not have a consistent #1 target.  I think we'll double down on the run game and if Davis can produce immediately that should be good.  Morse was not the best run blocker, so could we get better there? Plus consistently running behind 2 TEs.

 

I can't say the team is definitely better. There are some big question marks in many areas that we'll just have to see how it plays out.  

[Beast]

1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said:

You think there won't be injuries by the time we get to the playoffs.  Bernard worries me as a smaller guy who is always around the ball and plays aggressively. Milano and Daquan have injury histories. We're unproven at Safety and thin at CB. 

We missed Davis against KC, but he was otherwise a consistent part of the team during the win streak. Diggs too, even if his production was low. Teams consistently doubled Diggs and put their top CB on Davis, opening up opportunities for other guys like Shakir. Diggs and Davis are gone, so we'll see how Ds react. Might be a blessing to not have a consistent #1 target.  I think we'll double down on the run game and if Davis can produce immediately that should be good.  Morse was not the best run blocker, so could we get better there? Plus consistently running behind 2 TEs.

 

I can't say the team is definitely better. There are some big question marks in many areas that we'll just have to see how it plays out.  

I’m not asking you to say it. I said it. That’s my belief. We’ll see who’s right come September.

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, Beast said:

I’m not asking you to say it. I said it. That’s my belief. We’ll see who’s right come September.

Actually, what I care about is who's right come December.   In September, Harmon might be right.  After all, after the Jets game last year, the Bills came out absolutely smokin', and I don't expect that kind of start again.   I think in December, you'll be right, because the young talent will be making an impact then. 

[harmonkillebrew]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, what I care about is who's right come December.   In September, Harmon might be right.  After all, after the Jets game last year, the Bills came out absolutely smokin', and I don't expect that kind of start again.   I think in December, you'll be right, because the young talent will be making an impact then. 

Rookies and new players should be up to speed by December and reacting more naturally and playing with speed.

If injuries haven't hit us and our record isn't too bad, hopefully we can make a run.

[Beast]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, what I care about is who's right come December.   In September, Harmon might be right.  After all, after the Jets game last year, the Bills came out absolutely smokin', and I don't expect that kind of start again.   I think in December, you'll be right, because the young talent will be making an impact then. 

The Bills were garbage for the first 10 games of last season. I don’t expect that this year.

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, Beast said:

The Bills were garbage for the first 10 games of last season. I don’t expect that this year.

Well, after losing the opener to the Jets, they won three in a row by scores of 38-10, 37-3, 48-20, before a trip to London changed everything.  I don't care who the opponents were, I wouldn't call those lopsided scores "garbage."  

[Beast]

46 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, after losing the opener to the Jets, they won three in a row by scores of 38-10, 37-3, 48-20, before a trip to London changed everything.  I don't care who the opponents were, I wouldn't call those lopsided scores "garbage."  

I’d call 5-5 for a team as talented as the Bills garbage. And they were lucky as hell it wasn’t 3-7.  It was, by far, the worst stretch of games in the McDermott era when you consider our roster.