THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Reloading

[amprov56]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I often find that it’s useful to forget the money and the hype and the stars and instead to think about the game of football at its most basic.  I think about what it’s like to have a career as a high school football coach trying to win a championship.  

 

In high school, the raw material for building a roster is left mostly to chance (putting aside the little bit of recruiting that goes on in some places).  The head coach has very little control over the quality of players who show up on the first day of tryouts; the physical capabilities of most of those players was largely determined in random bedrooms 16 or 18 years earlier, and now here they are.  The coach’s job is to choose a roster from among the guys trying out, and then to train and mold them into a team that wins football games.

 

The programs with the best coaches have up years and down years like everyone else, but they tend to have more up years.  Why?  Because their brand of leadership, their teaching ability, and their strategic and tactical approach to the game is better than most other coaches.   So, even in years when the gene pool has left the coach a little short-handed compared to some other schools, their seasons often are quite successful. 

 

(I have had the opportunity to observe this phenomenon up close twice in my life.  I played high school basketball for Bob Hettler, one of the greatest high school coaches in New York State history, and I was on the faculty with Morgan Wootten, one of the greatest high school coaches in U.S. history.  The players changed year after year, but the winning more or less never stopped.  (Wootten did have the advantage of being able to recruit, at least a bit.)  Only occasionally did the talent fall together in just the right way to have a true championship caliber team, but even in down years, their teams stood out.)

 

Coaches know when the talent they have is outstanding and when it’s just okay.  Good coaches adapt to the challenge each season and look for the ways that this group of players can succeed, whether this group offers raw physical talent that is better or worse than last year’s group.  That’s the coach’s job, and good coaches find ways to win. 

 

Coaching is coaching, at any level.  Pro football coaches face the same annual roster turnover that high school coaches deal with.  There are differences, of course: The high school coaches have bigger problem, because their roster will be a collection 16-18 year-old kids with their own issues.  The pro coach, on the other hand, can expect at least semi-adult behavior from most of their players. 

 

The big difference, however, is the pro coach gets raw material selected from the very best players in the country.  The pro coach, year after year, is going to start the season with a training camp roster of 90 of the biggest, fastest, smartest, and toughest football players in the world.  And that means that the differences in team success based on physical talent become smaller:  the guy being tackled and the guy tackling both excel at their jobs.  For sure, if your team has more of the best guys, your team has an advantage, but in the NFL it’s very difficult to collect and hold onto talent that is physically dominant at several important positions.  In the current era, it isn’t possible to collect and keep stars like the Kelly-era Bills did.  

 

I’m not saying that getting the best talent doesn’t matter.   Of course, it matters.  What I’m saying is that not having the best talent doesn’t mean that you can’t compete.  With coaching, talent that is excellent but not the best can play a team-game that neutralizes the talent advantage any particular team might have.  Of course, if I have the best talent AND the best coaching, then the talent will be the difference.

 

People can argue endlessly about the talent on this roster and that roster, but at the end of the day success in the NFL is going to come down to how well coached your team is.  Does your coach get your team into the strategically and tactically correct offenses and defenses year-in, year out and game-in, game-out.  Does your coach get your team physically and mentally prepared to execute those offenses and defenses? 

 

In that context, consider for a moment what has happened to the Bills roster in the past three months that has the fan-base and the media all in a tizzy:  The Bills lost six big names from their roster:  White, Morse, Davis, Diggs, Hyde, and Poyer.  When each of those six came into the league, the draft market place valued them, by draft round, this way:  1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7.  Add ‘em up:  24. 

 

And now consider the Bills’ top-six acquisitions over the past three months.  Samuel, Coleman, Bishop, Carter, Davis, Van Pran-Granger.  2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5.  Total:  18. 

 

I’m not arguing for a second that there’s anything but the least-sophisticated logic to that analysis.  You can’t really just add up draft value and determine which college is better.  But those numbers aren't meaningless.

 

Those numbers are some evidence of the fact that the talent every team starts with, at least in terms of what the league thought of them when they came in.  Going into most drafts, most GMs would take 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5 over 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7. 

 

In terms of the quality of talent that will take the field in September compared to what the Bills had three months ago, I think I’ll take exactly where the Bills are today.  Think about the departures:  White, may still be a player, but at the very best he’s about to wind down, Morse, never the greatest physically, and his days were ending, Davis, the guy everyone loves to hate, Hyde slowing down and needs to go for his own health, Poyer, some years left, perhaps, but not his best. Diggs, may still be good, but not so good that he's worth the headache.  

 

Start looking at them player by player, or at least paired:  Would you rather have Diggs and Davis or Coleman and Samuel?  Would you rather have Morse or Van Pran-Granger?  Bishop or (pick one) Hyde or Poyer?  White or Carter?  Collectively, I'd rather have the youngsters than kept or extended all of those guys.

 

Now, for sure, not all of the rookies necessarily will pan out, and it may take them a year to begin to play at the level that’s needed for them to succeed in the league, but looking at the Bills three months ago and now, I will definitely take the uncertainty of these young talented players over the uncertainty of old, injured, troublesome talented players. 

 

Would the Bills be in an even better position if Beane had managed the draft in another way?   I don’t think so.  The extra talent one of the top three receivers in the draft would have brought to the team couldn’t offset the loss of the rest of the players the Bills drafted.  Said another way:  six guys are gone, and I like my chances better if I get six new guys instead of two (the new receiver and Curtis Samuel). 

 

In terms of how Beane and McDermott have done in their jobs, well, it depends if I’m a glass-half-empty or glass-half-full guy.  I like that they’ve improved the team, but I also have to ask why a group of unproven guys actually is better than the gang that just left?  How did the Bills get in the position they were in, with a group of guys who no longer were quite good enough to win, and with no backups in sight?

 

However they got to that position, I think if you asked McDermott if he likes the talent he has today, he’d say, “Absolutely!”  Can you win a Super Bowl with this talent?  “Absolutely!”  And that’s not just power-of-positive-thinking Sean speaking.  I mean, he and we thought he could win it with the talent he had last year, and if this is actually a better group, then why shouldn’t he think he should win this year? 

 

Translate this back to high school football.  It’s as though McDermott is coaching high school and has a five-star recruit at QB, several locks at D-1 scholarships (Milano, Oliver, Cook, Coleman, Torrence) and several guys who very well also might go D-1.   Considering D-2 and D-3, he has maybe 20 kids who are going to play in college.  Maybe one other high school in the state has a 5-star QB.  Some other schools might have two five-star players, but unless they have a five-star at QB, they can’t be as good together as the five-star QB he has.  Some other schools may end up with a few more D-1 guys than he has, but the reality is that doesn’t make all that much difference. 

 

Ask McDermott the high school coach if he likes were he is right now, and I’m sure he’ll say, “Absolutely.”  Ask him, the pro coach, and he'll say, "Absolutely."

 

I like what Beane has done since the end of the last season, and I’m looking forward to the 2024.  The Bills will be in the middle of the contest for the Lombardi. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

Great post!

[BobbyC81]

8 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Coleman is 2a and Shakir is 2b to their #1 Kincaid.

Yes, consider that Kincaid had 73 receptions in his rookie season.  The “experts” claimed that tight ends usually take a couple years to be a factor.  I believe we can expect more from him this season and he likely will be the leading receiver.

 

Hopefully Brady will run plays for him over the middle and down the seam, as opposed to our previous OC having him run short outs and expecting him to get first downs with YAC.

[CSBill]

Excellent work, as always, Shaw. Thank you

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Shaw... was arguing the Bills would be better next year before this draft even happened... so obviously, I agree with you. 

 

To me, the national media is somehow gifting Buffalo the underdog mentality, which baffles my mind... but I think we take it and run with it.

Beane and McDermott said when they came to Buffalo that their objective was to make the team better each year - continuous improvement.  Remarkably, they seem to be doing just that. 

[chris heff]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Allen has already QB'd offenses where Cole Beasley, John Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Robert Foster (separately) had career years. Of course Gabe Davis had career games, but never really a top flight season. I think the QB can obviously work with a variety of skillsets. Imagine him with improved talent like he has in 2024? (That's right, the overall talent with Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, Hollins, and Shorter is an actual improvement to past years.)

 

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Why is Shakir having to elevate to #2 when the Bills also signed Samuel? And why are those WR #s so important, but also so impossible to define? 

 

Curtis Samuel is almost the same exact size as Stefon Diggs (but thicker), definitely faster, less productive down the field but more productive in the short and intermediate zones where Brady seems to want to operate, higher draft pick/higher perceived pedigree initially but at a lower tier of production to date, and is 4 years younger...so why isn't he a great idea for this offense? Like a MUCH cheaper but not super substantively-lesser replacement. 

People keep discounting Samuel, here are the QBs he has played with, Cam Newton at the end of his career, Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell. Do you think he might be better playing with Josh Allen?

[Just in Atlanta]

I don't appreciate the level-headedness and logic. 

At a time like this, we need to yell and make wide-sweeping criticisms based on YouTube demo reels. 

[mbowman14]

Unbelievable perspective and commentary. Injuries are the great unknown but on paper, this team if healthy is better than the depleted version that lost to the Chiefs. 

[harmonkillebrew]

I don't think even Beane/McD are saying "absolutely".  This is a roster in transition. It has some good raw talent now, but is missing a ton of proven vets with experience. Difference makers in this league, as another poster put it.

 

The vets we got rid of were casualties of a salary cap driven league. We will miss them, but we've done a pretty good job of filling in behind them.

D

Douglas covers for White

Rapp/Bishop for Poyer

Not sure we have a real replacement for Hyde at center field. It's very hard to say we're better at S today.

Floyd is a loss, but hopefully Von is back closer to full strength

O

Morse was a leader but we should be ok

Gabe Davis - serviceable #2 and boundary WR. Keon replaces him from a skill set/role closest.

Diggs - he still had 100+ catches, 1200 yds and 8TDs last year. I'm not buying the quit on the team schtick. Huge hole and no real replacement. Big shoes for Keon to try and fill as a #1WR.  Samuel will help fill some of this role, but he's really a slot guy. More the 2nd slot in 3WR looks with Shakir and Keon.

RB - I do feel like we got better at RB with Davis. I've warmed up to that pick considerably.

 

I'm not so worried about the D. I never really am as McDermott consistently fields a competitive Defense. He's that high school football coach who can adjust to his talent with good scheme and coaching. As the HC, he also ensure the GM always invests top capital (such as the luxury of heavy Dline rotation)

 

But the Offense is still a huge work in progress. I hope Brady is up to this rehab. It will probably involve some growing pains.

 

I also don't feel like we got any better in coaching. McDermott has full control with his yes men now. We brought in no new ideas at DC and Brady got the job mostly b/c he runs the conservative, "complementary" offense that McDermott wants that keeps his fragile D off the field.  

 

Nothing suggests to me that we've gotten better this year. I'll still root my ass off for all the guys and spend too much money on jerseys, merch and tickets. But I'm starting to lose patience.

[stuvian]

I'm beginning to realize that drafting is largely about replacing your older, injured and expensive guys with younger and cheaper new guys.

 

I like the way Beane approached the draft. It shows we're building an organization with a pro scouting room instead of chasing glitzy names.

 

I expect Coleman and Bishop to start. If we get two more draftees to make the final roster I'll consider this a successful harvest.

[Paup 1995MVP]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Stefon Diggs was an elite receiver. Whether he still is remains to be seen - that is fair - but he has six consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Samuel's best year (which in fairness did come in a Joe Brady coordinated offense) was 851 yards. I would say that is super substantively lesser. Whether he is super substantively lesser than Stefon Diggs in 2024 we will see. But the Diggs we saw for at least 3 and a half years of his run in Buffalo? Yea. Samuel is a LOOOONG way short of that. I think Samuel could have a career year though. John Brown when forced into a #1 role by lack of alternatives had a thousand yard season for us. But he still wasn't close to what peak Stef Diggs was. 

Gunner I like most of what you post.  But don’t sugar coat it.  Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season.  He could not get open down the field.  He was dropping passes and looked disinterested. 
 

I think he is pretty much done.  A lot of guys have their day.  But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez.  He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.    
 

The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.  

[Mat68]

The core they had reached its capacity in KC 3 years ago.  Last 2 season the were holding onto to something that wasn't good enough but had no choice due to the covid cap maneuvers.  The old core has been mostly removed.  They have pieces on offense and defense they are building around.  The guys that carried the team down the stretch are still here.  Kincaid, Shakir and Cook are the primary focal points on offense.  Their individual efficiency point to them getting an increased target share.  I think Samuel and Coleman are good compliments to them.   

[harmonkillebrew]

4 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Gunner I like most of what you post.  But don’t sugar coat it.  Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season.  He could not get open down the field.  He was dropping passes and looked disinterested. 
 

I think he is pretty much done.  A lot of guys have their day.  But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez.  He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.    
 

The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.  

I don't know what happened second half of last year to Diggs, but I don't put it on him alone. I think Brady's scheme and play calling and a lack of a real #2 were as much to blame. With Davis hitting FA, I would have liked to see Coleman added to pair WITH Diggs, not try and replace him.  Now that would have been a WR room - Diggs, Keon, Samuel and Shakir! Could have given DCs fits. 

 

But I think they probably did well to move on from Diggs. They just should have done more to address WR. Our WR room already needed an upgrade with Davis not producing consistently, but then when he left and then they also traded Diggs, more was needed. 

 

[Mat68]

11 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Gunner I like most of what you post.  But don’t sugar coat it.  Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season.  He could not get open down the field.  He was dropping passes and looked disinterested. 
 

I think he is pretty much done.  A lot of guys have their day.  But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez.  He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.    
 

The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.  

The contract situation in Houston tells you all you need to know about how the league sees Diggs.  In stead of giving him more guaranteed money they made it a year rental so he could chase money elsewhere.   

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Gunner I like most of what you post.  But don’t sugar coat it.  Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season.  He could not get open down the field.  He was dropping passes and looked disinterested. 
 

I think he is pretty much done.  A lot of guys have their day.  But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez.  He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.    
 

The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.  

 

I am not sugar coating it. I am just not yet ready to say he is done. Maybe he was disinterested. Maybe he was nicked up. He'd definitely fallen out with Josh. He might be done. Or he might rebound in different circumstances. Neither of those would surprise me. 

[harmonkillebrew]

33 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

The contract situation in Houston tells you all you need to know about how the league sees Diggs.  In stead of giving him more guaranteed money they made it a year rental so he could chase money elsewhere.   

True true, but his contract is also just not tenable for his age. Another crap contract by Beane. 

He must be a total team cancer given how much we're eating in cap this year for NOT having him on the team. 

[Mat68]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Stefon Diggs was an elite receiver. Whether he still is remains to be seen - that is fair - but he has six consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Samuel's best year (which in fairness did come in a Joe Brady coordinated offense) was 851 yards. I would say that is super substantively lesser. Whether he is super substantively lesser than Stefon Diggs in 2024 we will see. But the Diggs we saw for at least 3 and a half years of his run in Buffalo? Yea. Samuel is a LOOOONG way short of that. I think Samuel could have a career year though. John Brown when forced into a #1 role by lack of alternatives had a thousand yard season for us. But he still wasn't close to what peak Stef Diggs was. 

Gotta look at them targets.  If Diggs has 110 targets is he an elite wr?   I think this year people get that answer.  Samuel has never played in a high powered passing attack.  Samuel’s traits lend very well with Allen.  Last half of the year Shakir had more yards similar number of catches as Diggs on half the targets.  I dont see another player getting over 150 targets in the offense going forward.  I dont see Diggs getting that target share in Houston either. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Gotta look at them targets.  If Diggs has 110 targets is he an elite wr?   I think this year people get that answer.  Samuel has never played in a high powered passing attack.  Samuel’s traits lend very well with Allen.  Last half of the year Shakir had more yards similar number of catches as Diggs on half the targets.  I dont see another player getting over 150 targets in the offense going forward.  I dont see Diggs getting that target share in Houston either. 

 

In his prime? Yes. Possibly not at this stage. But he was elite his last year in MIN on 94 targets. He was at his peak the best route runner in football. 

[harmonkillebrew]

Targets are not just about force-feeding, it's also about getting open. In a multiple read offense, you'll get the ball and get catches if you get open.

Diggs got open, regularly, including against other team's top CBs. He regularly roasted Jalen Ramsey, JC Jackson, and other CBs.

Shakir, on the other hand, faced slot CBs, S and LBs.  

 

Diggs problem is more attitude and increasingly age. But we still could have used him this year. No one on the team currently replaces his skill set and experience. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Gunner I like most of what you post.  But don’t sugar coat it.  Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season.  He could not get open down the field.  He was dropping passes and looked disinterested. 
 

I think he is pretty much done.  A lot of guys have their day.  But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez.  He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.    
 

The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.  

I think you're both saying the same things:  Diggs was a premier receiver for several years, and he certainly was a key part of the offense.  It's not very likely that we're going to see that kind of production in many coming seasons.  

 

And although I get that Diggs might simply be past the point where he can be again what he was, I expect a good year from him.  He had special motivation when he came to Buffalo.   He was motivated to show that the problem in Minnesota was Minnesota.   2024 he will be motivated in the same sense, to prove it wasn't him, it was Buffalo.  I think the fire that burns in him has been reignited.  The problem for Diggs is that his body's ability to respond to the fire is declining.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Gotta look at them targets.  If Diggs has 110 targets is he an elite wr?   I think this year people get that answer.  Samuel has never played in a high powered passing attack.  Samuel’s traits lend very well with Allen.  Last half of the year Shakir had more yards similar number of catches as Diggs on half the targets.  I dont see another player getting over 150 targets in the offense going forward.  I dont see Diggs getting that target share in Houston either. 

That's interesting, what you say about Samuel.   I have trouble seeing him having some kind of career year.   I see him as being the player he's been for several years, but in an offense that gives him more opportunities.  It's interesting to me to think of him as you suggest.  

 

As I try to visualize the passing attack, I'm asking myself. "Who is going to be the guy who's the premier guy, the feature guy.  Not that he dominates so much with big numbers, but is the guy we think of as the go-to guy?   Because Diggs was that guy, and that guy is important.   

 

That guy could be Kincaid.  He doesn't strike me as a leader, as a feature guy.   He may grow into more of a leadership role this year, but his play would have to step up from last season.  

 

As you say, it could be Samuel.   I don't see Samuel that way.  I think Samuel needs a premier guy next to him for Samuel to be valuable.  

 

Hard to see Shakir as that guy. 

 

And that leaves Coleman.  Who knows?  Maybe Coleman and Samuel, together, present a combination of match-up problems that forces defenses to reshape, which in turn gives Kincaid and Shakir room to operate.  That's definitely an offense where targets would be distributed more evenly, as you say.