What's the point of this team's philosophy?

[BillsVet]

25 minutes ago, stuvian said:

I think we're going to see a run first offense this year

 

If the last 9 games under Brady are any indication, at a minimum they'll be more balanced.  In those games, they ran it 331 times versus 311 passes (including sacks taken).  Maybe some wiggle room with Josh taking off on a pass play, but that's a 51.5-48.5% run to pass ratio. 

 

By comparison with Dorsey, it was 254 runs to 363 passes from games 1-10, or a 41-59% run to pass ratio.  

 

Whether or not that will be as successful with their personnel group is another question entirely. 

[Mat68]

On 4/29/2024 at 6:18 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?

 

What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just that?

 

Why not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.

20 plus yard passes year over are the least predictable stat year over year.  Its the passing version of fumble recover rate. The offense needs to be built on the short and intermediate.    Allen has the ability to generate big plays out of structure.  Coleman may be able to develop a back shoulder with Allen but those are less efficient plays.  Good to have it in your bag but cannot live off of it.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

14 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

I'm talking anything over 20 yds, but to the sidelines and attacking downfield soft spots in zones, not just go routes.  Allen can hit those pretty regularly. His go routes have been a little more hit or miss.  

 

From what I know of Samuel's game, its short stuff and quickness. He has the long speed, but perhaps his ability to beat the jam, or route running or to track and catch the ball keeps him as more of a LOS guy. 

 

A fast 40 helps you gain that down the field separation on a go route, but even better when coupled with good route running and ball tracking.  

There were a number of guys with that profile, including Worthy, that the Bills didn't seem to like. Or they didn't think they needed that skill set, which gets back to the OP's topic - what is the philosophy and is it misguided?

 

In Gabe Davis rookie and 2nd year he was great at catching 20 yard sideline passes, then he seemed to have forgot how to catch the ball. Don't think you need the speed of Worthy for that, just someone with good hands which everything written about Coleman says he should excel there.  Samuel can provide enough speed if/when needed.

 

As to the point of what is the philosophy,  IMO what is should be is keep the chains moving which was something the Bills were good at prior to the last season and a half.  Definitely don't feel the team is misaligned with Allen as don't think the extra speed helps moving the chains nearly as much as just simply catching the ball.

[BarleyNY]

On 4/29/2024 at 6:18 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?

 

What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just that?

 

Why not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.

 

It makes no sense to me not to lean into Allen’s talent. I’m all for getting him help in any form on the offense or team. But I do not understand why we’d take the ball out of his hands and lean into running to shorten the game. it feels like McDermott is protecting his defense at the expense of the offense and the team overall.

Edited April 30 by BarleyNY

[Dukestreetking]

Returning to OP point re team philosophy, specifically on O...

 

I look back at the '20 season, esp the LAR game, much hyped at the time. More specifically, I reviewed the 4-in-a-row TD drives of, effectively, matriculation (h/t @oldmanfan) combined with 17 arm strength, plus. 

 

Going thru all play-by-plays over the last few seasons, I suspect this game is the rough outline of what we'll see in '24.

 

Side note: looking back again reminds me of how important CB was to the efficiency of the offense. I get it, Beas is a polarizing figure here, but damn...

 

 

[billsfan_34]

On 4/29/2024 at 6:27 AM, The Jokeman said:

Bombs away isn't consistent. Yes, Allen can throw it 65 yards down field but to ask a WR to get open on that route or time things perfectly is no easy task as we saw with Diggs' playoff drop. Instead you play small ball to keep moving down field until get a TD or hopefully get a FG aka put points on the board. Sure you can throw a deep pass every so often to take a chance and/or keep the defense honest but to think you're going to hit one with any form of consistency is just foolish. I'll admit Coleman wasn't in my short list of WRs I wanted to us to draft. Yet I've been wrong before as I admit I never expected Josh Allen to be a top 5 NFL QB and even muttered Wrong Josh when he was drafted because watching the clips in college he wasn't always taking the way throw to move the chains and seemed like a guy who threw it long or a ball that most of the time wouldn't get completed. The more you watch the more you realize the best way to beat an opponent is don't beat yourself. As most games nowadays are won and loss by a handful of plays. 

Wears the other teams D down and keeps ours off the field as well. I love this philosophy. 

Edited April 30 by billsfan_34

[harmonkillebrew]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

In Gabe Davis rookie and 2nd year he was great at catching 20 yard sideline passes, then he seemed to have forgot how to catch the ball. Don't think you need the speed of Worthy for that, just someone with good hands which everything written about Coleman says he should excel there.  Samuel can provide enough speed if/when needed.

 

As to the point of what is the philosophy,  IMO what is should be is keep the chains moving which was something the Bills were good at prior to the last season and a half.  Definitely don't feel the team is misaligned with Allen as don't think the extra speed helps moving the chains nearly as much as just simply catching the ball.

Gabe still did it some. He had a TD last year that was vintage deep sideline stuff.  His height and good hands, made up for less than top speed and average route running. But most of that success was Allen fitting it into TIGHT windows.  That is what he can do that other QBs just can't - hit deep sideline windows with lasers. It would be even more deadly with a WR with hands, routes, and speed - a true boundary WR.  

[SoCal Deek]

14 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Gabe still did it some. He had a TD last year that was vintage deep sideline stuff.  His height and good hands, made up for less than top speed and average route running. But most of that success was Allen fitting it into TIGHT windows.  That is what he can do that other QBs just can't - hit deep sideline windows with lasers. It would be even more deadly with a WR with hands, routes, and speed - a true boundary WR.  

At the end it got to the point where if Gabe caught the ball anywhere BUT at the sideline I’d be screaming for him to “go down”! He seemed desperate to stop, turn inside, and then put the ball on the ground when defenders surrounded him. He never learned. 

[frostbitmic]

The teams goal seems to be to win the AFC East every year, and they're doing good there, though their goals could and should be higher.

 

As far as philosophy, I'm as clueless as complimentary football. Do they want to slow the offense down so McDermott's defense is on the field less. If that's the case you need a new defensive philosophy.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

31 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Gabe still did it some. He had a TD last year that was vintage deep sideline stuff.  His height and good hands, made up for less than top speed and average route running. But most of that success was Allen fitting it into TIGHT windows.  That is what he can do that other QBs just can't - hit deep sideline windows with lasers. It would be even more deadly with a WR with hands, routes, and speed - a true boundary WR.  

 

Yeah but seemed like for every one Davis would catch, he'd drop 2 more and by year end even Diggs was dropping some.  Give me WR who can consistently catch the ball 15 to 20 yards downfield and think the offense will be much better overall.

[harmonkillebrew]

19 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yeah but seemed like for every one Davis would catch, he'd drop 2 more and by year end even Diggs was dropping some.  Give me WR who can consistently catch the ball 15 to 20 yards downfield and think the offense will be much better overall.

I was happy to move on from Davis to upgrade. The Diggs trade made me think they were really going to overhaul.

However, I'm less than excited with what they chose to do in the draft. 

[davefan66]

22 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Quick Q:

 

Tyreek Hill or Kalil Shakir, also saying reading defenses is Josh's strong suit...is a take

 

 

I’ll take whatever receiver is best for the team. The guy that has the best chemistry with the QB. The guy with the most football smarts.  A guy who fits the offense, instead of someone you feel the need to force feed the ball.

 

Hill vs Shakir? You’re really saying you’d rather have speed and the catches he’s accumulated, vs an unproven guy.  My question back to you is, didn’t the Chiefs win the last 2 Super Bowls after jettisoning Hill?  Could care less  Hill caught 238 balls for 3,509 yard last two seasons.  
 

Josh can read defenses is not a take. Plenty of guys he’s gone against tout that as one of his strengths. Not my take as much as NFL defenders who’ve played against him.  Guy like him can’t be as successful as he is without the ability to read defenses.
 

 

[Billl]

19 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

At the end it got to the point where if Gabe caught the ball anywhere BUT at the sideline I’d be screaming for him to “go down”! He seemed desperate to stop, turn inside, and then put the ball on the ground when defenders surrounded him. He never learned. 

What do you base this on? Davis has 3 career fumbles and he recovered one himself. 

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

What do you base this on? Davis has 3 career fumbles and he recovered one himself. 

 

Davis has 20 career drops and 18 career interceptions against him.  Whilst some of those are in no way his fault (Josh forcing the ball or just throwing in his general direction), a goodly number are balls he got his hands on but didn't complete the catch, or that ricocheted off his hands.

[ddaryl]

On 4/29/2024 at 3:18 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?

 

What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just that?

 

Why not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.

YARDS AFTER CATCH is the game.  High % passes with YAC is more effective than bombs away. Josh has the arm strength but the % of receptions downfield is lower overall. Sure you throw the bombs a few times a game to keep DBs back on their heels some and hope you hit a few here and threre but I've seen more games for the Bills be lost trying to force it downfield. Keep those chains moving is always the 1st strategy


Why would you want to offload Allen... you are basically saying Josh is a one trick pony who can't play the short to mid game.... that is very weird thing to even hint at

[Brian Higgins hair]

On 4/29/2024 at 6:18 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?

 

What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just that?

 

Why not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.

It’s about at downs, not bombs…

that’s how KC wins, Brady wins, etc.

[FireChans]

23 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

It makes no sense to me not to lean into Allen’s talent. I’m all for getting him help in any form on the offense or team. But I do not understand why we’d take the ball out of his hands and lean into running to shorten the game. it feels like McDermott is protecting his defense at the expense of the offense and the team overall.

Probably the TO’s.

 

I think if you polled every single defensive background coach in the NFL and asked the one thing that is the most important for the offensive to do, it would be not turn it over. 
 

Not saying they are right or wrong, it’s just ingrained in their DNA. It’s why McKenzie and Cook were shown the bench everytime they let go of the football.

[BarleyNY]

30 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Probably the TO’s.

 

I think if you polled every single defensive background coach in the NFL and asked the one thing that is the most important for the offensive to do, it would be not turn it over. 
 

Not saying they are right or wrong, it’s just ingrained in their DNA. It’s why McKenzie and Cook were shown the bench everytime they let go of the football.

 

The reduction of turnovers did seem to be the biggest positive outcome of the move from Dorsey and his pass heavy offense to Brady and his more run heavy offense. That reduction definitely translated to more wins in the second half of last season. I think it was more a case of bad luck early in the season though. Last season under Dorsey Allen had more interceptions than turnover worthy throws and it seemed like we lost a higher than typical amount of fumbles. Overall, passing is more efficient than running in the NFL. That was mitigated somewhat by defenses using schemes and personnel geared toward stopping the pass. But judging by recent trends it looks like defenses have moved into more balanced approach. In any event, here's hoping that the Bills are flexible and use whatever approach works best.

Edited May 1 by BarleyNY

[Bruffalo]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Davis has 20 career drops and 18 career interceptions against him.  Whilst some of those are in no way his fault (Josh forcing the ball or just throwing in his general direction), a goodly number are balls he got his hands on but didn't complete the catch, or that ricocheted off his hands.

It didn't help that he picked the opposite option route that Allen was looking for so consistently. That might have been the single most frustrating part of his game to me.

 

Remember that time Allen got called for grounding because Davis chose the wrong route?  Has that ever even happened to any other QB in the modern NFL?

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

It didn't help that he picked the opposite option route that Allen was looking for so consistently. That might have been the single most frustrating part of his game to me.

 

Remember that time Allen got called for grounding because Davis chose the wrong route?  Has that ever even happened to any other QB in the modern NFL?

 

Oh, yeah, that grounding call was kind of unique.  Though I'm sure it's happened before - think it might have happened to Fitzy a couple times on the Bills.

 

IIRC, people who know something said on at least one of those routes, Davis made the right call given the defense and Allen made the wrong call (happened a couple times with Shakir as well IIRC).  Part of that is "the QB has fractional seconds with 300 lb behemoths bearing down on him" and part of that may be just not getting on the same page - maybe it's technically the right call but not aligned with Allen's preferred throw or Allen's preferred throw under duress.  I think we didn't see that kind of thing so much from guys like Tom Brady because when the behemoths revved it up, he said "***** it!" and took the checkdown instead of Going for the Gusto, and maybe Allen should be doing a *wee* bit more of that, too.