What's the point of this team's philosophy?

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

 

Need to have the threat of the home run, or even deep post/out to keep Defenses honest.  That involves WRs with the talent to do it, which we have none of now. We will not threaten outside the numbers down the field and probably only down the middle deep on seams to Kincaid. It's going to be all underneath stuff and ball control.  I just think that wastes one of Josh's supreme talents. He'll never be Brady, he's a gunslinger. 

 

The schematic mismatch with his HC is becoming painfully obvious. 

Enough already.  Samuel is fast.  Hamler is fast.  Isabella is fast.  And on average, as has been posted in the last day or two, there was about 1 throw  40 yards or more per game on average in the league last year.

 

I know now it’s going to be that those guys aren’t good enough, but then you’d be assuming drafting some guy on say 3 would be.  And we know what they say about those who assume.

[WotAGuy]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

How about it?  

 

Read the context of the entire conversation among all involved and get back to me. 

 

 

I was replying to your statement that you won’t be reduced to a single stat. 
Wins and losses are all that matters.  
 

If Josh’s metrics were down with Brady, the fact he was winning games is all that matters. 

[harmonkillebrew]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Enough already.  Samuel is fast.  Hamler is fast.  Isabella is fast.  And on average, as has been posted in the last day or two, there was about 1 throw  40 yards or more per game on average in the league last year.

 

I know now it’s going to be that those guys aren’t good enough, but then you’d be assuming drafting some guy on say 3 would be.  And we know what they say about those who assume.

Teams consistently contracted their coverage on us last year. We became less and less productive in the passing game (and more reliant on Josh's legs). Part of this was due to the scheme but also due to a lack of downfield threats. There was just no risk to giving up a big play for a TD.  I'm just repeating what a lot of analysts pointed out. 

 

If anything the Bills got worse this offseason. Gabe and Diggs were inconsistent last year, but we don't have anyone close now. None of those guys you mention - Hamler, Isabella and Samuel - have any real production downfield, despite good 40 times.  (I mean Hamler has not done anything at all in his career, nor has Isabella really, so its laughable you even mention them)

[Mikie2times]

13 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?

 

What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just that?

 

Why not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.

Maserati's have a higher risk of a fatal injury. They want a car that can get to a very high top speed if required but is usually on cruise. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Teams consistently contracted their coverage on us last year. We became less and less productive in the passing game (and more reliant on Josh's legs). Part of this was due to the scheme but also due to a lack of downfield threats. There was just no risk to giving up a big play for a TD.  I'm just repeating what a lot of analysts pointed out. 

 

If anything the Bills got worse this offseason. Gabe and Diggs were inconsistent last year, but we don't have anyone close now. None of those guys you mention - Hamler, Isabella and Samuel - have any real production downfield, despite good 40 times.  (I mean Hamler has not done anything at all in his career, nor has Isabella really, so its laughable you even mention them)

No.  You said a threat to go downfield.  Any of these guys can run downfield, if in fact that is how Brady sets up the offense.

 

We all get your schtick by now.  If they had stayed put and drafted the guy KC took you’d have spent the last two days talking about how we should have gotten a bigger guy that could win contested throws.

[Bob in STL]

13 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?

 

What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just that?

 

Why not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.

Allen can throw deep, but is his  completion percentage on the deep ball really that good?   Seems like he overthrows the ball often. 
 

Building a balanced attack is the best way to make an offense that is hard to stop. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said:

 

Need to have the threat of the home run, or even deep post/out to keep Defenses honest.  That involves WRs with the talent to do it, which we have none of now. We will not threaten outside the numbers down the field and probably only down the middle deep on seams to Kincaid. It's going to be all underneath stuff and ball control.  I just think that wastes one of Josh's supreme talents. He'll never be Brady, he's a gunslinger. 

 

The schematic mismatch with his HC is becoming painfully obvious. 

 

If one of Josh's talents is throwing long passes, then this team is in trouble because from what I've seen that's on of the things he does worst at.  20 yard passes, maybe 25 to 30 on occasion he's good.  But long passes he's almost always way long or way short.

 

When you actually calculate the difference between Worthy's time to run 40 yards down field and say Curtis Samuel it's less than 1 yard  In other words when Worthy is down field 40 yards Samuel would be just beyond 39 yards.  So do you actually believe that little difference is going to keep a defense honest or not??   If Samuel can't keep the defense honest, doubt someone as fast as Worthy would either.  Add to that Allen is all over the map on deep throws.

[Beast]

Let’s not forget that, league-wide, it’s harder than ever to throw deep. Teams, in fact like the Bills, focus on keeping everything in front of their safety’s. 

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Because you WIN IN THE TRENCHES...you don't win with a track team.

 

I agree but our first OL pick this year was in the 5th round despite it being a very deep OL class. With all the talk of WRs this point has been passed over.

 

If the plan is to play small ball, ball control offense, we don't have an IOL built for that IMO. McGovern and Edwards are mediocre or worse run blockers. Not sure about Torrence yet but he has potential to very good against the run. Still that isn't a good enough trio if that's going to be our philosophy.

 

I take the point that the Bills are trying to build a more physical offense but like you said that needs to start up front and they totally neglected that early in the draft.

 

I'll be honest, I don't think there is a coherent plan here. The pieces on offense don't complement each other. Seems like the plan (again) is to trust that Josh and his OC will make it work.

 

Edited April 30 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

14 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

You have a QB that's a Maserati. He's built for bombs away. But instead of building your offense for that, you build it for plodding, 10 yards at a time max, 10 minute drive offense. So I ask, what is the point?

 

What's the point of having a guy who's designed by nature to bomb the football deep and whose weakness is dink and dunk stuck in an offensive scheme that is built to do just that?

 

Why not offload him for someone who's better suited for that kind of thing if you refuse to play to his strengths? That's what I can't wrap my head around. It makes no sense.

I'll bite.

 

Josh has been at his best when they get him in rhythm early, and he has multiple quality receiving targets capable of getting open in the intermediate range of the field. You can watch highlights of his 2020 season, he is not launching bombs every game. Were they there sometimes?  Yes.  But he made his money with Diggs-to-Beasley progression on 12 to 18 yard throws.

 

This is illustrated by his 2020 and 2021 seasons where his intended air yards/target were the two lowest of his career.  And in 2020, playing in the intermediate range, his on-target percentage was the best of his career.

 

Once Beasley fell off a cliff in 2021, Diggs was used more in the slot, and there hasn't been the two man game that made Josh so deadly in 2020 since. Gabe Davis was the inconsistent bomb deep threat you are looking for, and he was not a reliable target. Then the IOL and Dorsey were both disasters in 2022 and Josh slipped back into his old tendencies a bit as his WR group got worse every year.

 

In summation, attacking the intermediate-middle of field is where most great QB's make their money. Josh used to be able to do that with an elite outside WR and a near elite slot WR. Just like Mahomes did with his elite outside WR and his elite slot/TE at a higher level (outside of that blistering bombs away 2018 season).

 

If Josh gets those kind of weapons again, and an OC that doesn't get completely figured out by week 10 and not have a counter-punch, he will cruise again.

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I agree but our first OL pick this year was in the 5th round despite it being a very deep OL class. With all the talk of WRs this point has been passed over.

 

If the plan is to play small ball, ball control offense, we don't have an IOL built for that IMO. McGovern and Edwards are mediocre or worse run blockers. Not sure about Torrence yet but he has potential to very good against the run. Still that isn't a good enough trio if that's going to be our philosophy.

 

I take the point that the Bills are trying to build a more physical offense but like you said that needs to start up front and they totally neglected that early in the draft.

 

I'll be honest, I don't think there is a coherent plan here. The pieces on offense don't complement each other. Seems like the plan (again) is to trust that Josh and his OC will make it work.

The question that needs to be asked is, "how much influence does Joe Brady have today?"

 

The answer, imo, is very little. Beane and McD are running the show. I have no doubts McD and Daboll butted heads over certain things which explains their chilly relationship, but I think he had a voice. I think Brady is closer to a sycophant when it comes to the big decisions.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:

I was replying to your statement that you won’t be reduced to a single stat. 
Wins and losses are all that matters.  
 

If Josh’s metrics were down with Brady, the fact he was winning games is all that matters. 

 

Again, the context.  

 

 

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The question that needs to be asked is, "how much influence does Joe Brady have today?"

 

Why would they let their OC have major influence? He's their 3rd in 4 years. Under McDermott it's written in stone that we'll have to hire a new OC every 2-3 years because the current one will always eventually be fired or hired away as a head coach. And it's not like McDermott is dictating the long-term offensive philosophy beyond a vague oversight. So any time we add players to the offense it won't be with any particular system in mind. They're going to throw a bunch of low investment guys at the coach and tell him and Allen to figure it out.

 

A lot of fans have seemingly convinced themselves that small ball, ball control offense has been the plan all along. I don't think that's true at all. I think the personnel investments have forced that to be the only valid offensive philosophy we can use this year. Is it what Brady wants? The guy that coached an LSU offense featuring Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson? Color me skeptical. But it's the offense he'll get and he'll like it, or else we'll cycle on through to the next offensive coach getting their feet wet.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why would they let their OC have major influence? He's their 3rd in 4 years. Under McDermott it's written in stone that we'll have to hire a new OC every 2-3 years because the current one will always eventually be fired or hired away as a head coach. And it's not like McDermott is dictating the long-term offensive philosophy beyond a vague oversight. So any time we add players to the offense it won't be with any particular system in mind. They're going to throw a bunch of low investment guys at the coach and tell him and Allen to figure it out.

 

A lot of fans have seemingly convinced themselves that small ball, ball control offense has been the plan all along. I don't think that's true at all. I think the personnel investments have forced that to be the only valid offensive philosophy we can use this year. Is it what Brady wants? The guy that coached an LSU offense featuring Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson? Color me skeptical. But it's the offense he'll get and he'll like it, or else we'll cycle on through to the next offensive coach getting their feet wet.

I do actually think it was the plan all along

 

I think it's a mistake, but I believe that Brady is going to execute the kind of offense McDermott wants

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I do actually think it was the plan all along

 

I think it's a mistake, but I believe that Brady is going to execute the kind of offense McDermott wants

Some talking head somewhere said that Brady was basically trying to call the offense McD wanted for the last 8 weeks so he could get the job.

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Some talking head somewhere said that Brady was basically trying to call the offense McD wanted for the last 8 weeks so he could get the job.

Not sure about that 

 

But I will say during and after the Dorsey firing McDermott spoke a lot more about offense thani can previously remember

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why would they let their OC have major influence? He's their 3rd in 4 years. Under McDermott it's written in stone that we'll have to hire a new OC every 2-3 years because the current one will always eventually be fired or hired away as a head coach. And it's not like McDermott is dictating the long-term offensive philosophy beyond a vague oversight. So any time we add players to the offense it won't be with any particular system in mind. They're going to throw a bunch of low investment guys at the coach and tell him and Allen to figure it out.

 

A lot of fans have seemingly convinced themselves that small ball, ball control offense has been the plan all along. I don't think that's true at all. I think the personnel investments have forced that to be the only valid offensive philosophy we can use this year. Is it what Brady wants? The guy that coached an LSU offense featuring Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson? Color me skeptical. But it's the offense he'll get and he'll like it, or else we'll cycle on through to the next offensive coach getting their feet wet.

we need to hire an OC whose already failed at being HC so we can keep him for 4+ years. 
 

McDaniels maybe

[VW82]

The collective amnesia of last season is interesting. It feels like a lot of you processed the first half as "it was all Dorsey's fault" as appose to Josh having issues staying in the pocket and taking what the defense gave him. 

 

The whole "maserati" thing flamed out as Josh repeatedly threw downfield into baits and traps that resulted in break ups, drive killers, and picks. 

 

Brady came in and re-introduced the running game which included designed runs from Josh. We had Josh spreading it around with a focus on completions and keeping the chains moving. That's when our offense stopped being so one-dimensional and we became dangerous as a contender. 

 

Now so many Bills fans want to go back to finding another "stud" so our "maserati" can be unleashed again. That isn't what's worked. That's not really who Josh is when he's at his best. That's not how we're going to take the next step to eventually contending for SBs. 

Edited April 30 by VW82

[LeGOATski]

McDermott always preaches "complimentary football." That's the team's philosophy. We're reminded of this philosophy all the time.

57 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why would they let their OC have major influence? He's their 3rd in 4 years. Under McDermott it's written in stone that we'll have to hire a new OC every 2-3 years because the current one will always eventually be fired or hired away as a head coach. And it's not like McDermott is dictating the long-term offensive philosophy beyond a vague oversight. So any time we add players to the offense it won't be with any particular system in mind. They're going to throw a bunch of low investment guys at the coach and tell him and Allen to figure it out.

 

A lot of fans have seemingly convinced themselves that small ball, ball control offense has been the plan all along. I don't think that's true at all. I think the personnel investments have forced that to be the only valid offensive philosophy we can use this year. Is it what Brady wants? The guy that coached an LSU offense featuring Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson? Color me skeptical. But it's the offense he'll get and he'll like it, or else we'll cycle on through to the next offensive coach getting their feet wet.

Brady coached Curtis Samuel to his best statistical year. You don't think Brady had influence in getting Samuel?

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I agree but our first OL pick this year was in the 5th round despite it being a very deep OL class. With all the talk of WRs this point has been passed over.

 

If the plan is to play small ball, ball control offense, we don't have an IOL built for that IMO. McGovern and Edwards are mediocre or worse run blockers. Not sure about Torrence yet but he has potential to very good against the run. Still that isn't a good enough trio if that's going to be our philosophy.

 

I take the point that the Bills are trying to build a more physical offense but like you said that needs to start up front and they totally neglected that early in the draft.

 

I'll be honest, I don't think there is a coherent plan here. The pieces on offense don't complement each other. Seems like the plan (again) is to trust that Josh and his OC will make it work.

 

I get where you are coming from, but we did address the trenches also in the 3rd round.  We had lots of places we needed help and the Board falls the way it falls too.  I wouldn’t expect them to reach for an OL if there was someone on the board they had graded higher.  And I think our OL was in better shape going into draft than our DL too.
 

I for one am stoked about our first 4 picks and firmly believe they all play and contribute year 1.  Ray Davis was a major target for me coming in, I was stoked when we got him.  And like many, Cole was my target at Safety too.  

[harmonkillebrew]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

If one of Josh's talents is throwing long passes, then this team is in trouble because from what I've seen that's on of the things he does worst at.  20 yard passes, maybe 25 to 30 on occasion he's good.  But long passes he's almost always way long or way short.

 

When you actually calculate the difference between Worthy's time to run 40 yards down field and say Curtis Samuel it's less than 1 yard  In other words when Worthy is down field 40 yards Samuel would be just beyond 39 yards.  So do you actually believe that little difference is going to keep a defense honest or not??   If Samuel can't keep the defense honest, doubt someone as fast as Worthy would either.  Add to that Allen is all over the map on deep throws.

I'm talking anything over 20 yds, but to the sidelines and attacking downfield soft spots in zones, not just go routes.  Allen can hit those pretty regularly. His go routes have been a little more hit or miss.  

 

From what I know of Samuel's game, its short stuff and quickness. He has the long speed, but perhaps his ability to beat the jam, or route running or to track and catch the ball keeps him as more of a LOS guy. 

 

A fast 40 helps you gain that down the field separation on a go route, but even better when coupled with good route running and ball tracking.  

There were a number of guys with that profile, including Worthy, that the Bills didn't seem to like. Or they didn't think they needed that skill set, which gets back to the OP's topic - what is the philosophy and is it misguided?