Fact vs Fiction: "Keon Coleman is not a separator"

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, ShakAttack said:

Sorry if this was already posted, but here is a good video.  While it does confirm that Coleman struggles with separation on deep routes, you can see him doing very well in creating separation on other routes. 

 

 

 

The film of his struggles to separate vertically starts around 6:20.

 

After that, you will see some impressive route running in which Coleman is successful in separating from DBs.

 

Enjoy.

 

 

Good find.  Hopefully the Bills WR room will work overtime to help him improve

 

But, the bottom line I take from this is that drafting him did NOT add the vertical threat we've been lacking

Edited April 29 by Beck Water

[YodaMan79]

I've been trying to think of a comp that we could hope to compare K. Coleman to.  What do you guys think of Brandon Marshall as a comparison?  He had a very good career, his stats surprised me.  He's 24th in all-time yardage.  Not bad for a 4th round pick.  Look at the physical similarities (yes I know Coleman is a little lite):

 

Marshall: 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/brandon-marshall/32004d41-5237-0922-7f60-5556d0dc6ec1

 

Coleman: 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/keon-coleman/3200434f-4c29-5571-54fa-77236b775ae1

[Simon]

7 hours ago, ShakAttack said:

Sorry if this was already posted, but here is a good video.  While it does confirm that Coleman struggles with separation on deep routes, you can see him doing very well in creating separation on other routes. 

 

 

 

The film of his struggles to separate vertically starts around 6:20.

 

After that, you will see some impressive route running in which Coleman is successful in separating from DBs.

 

Enjoy.

 

 

'Preciate the effort of posting some video.

Hard to read much from this imo, because (aside from the the guy with the clicker needing medicated) his QB is unsure of himself and late all the way through.

I got the sense that if that ball was coming out on time, DB's have their hands full defensing an NFL legit catch radius.

He might not be your first option on the dig, but he's a real problem on the post.

Does he have the kind of long speed to back people off?

If so, that is the kind of dude you do not like to see walk out across from you.

You really need to defend a lot of grass with guys like that and an arm like Allen's exacerbates that by an order of magnitude.

 

 

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

If this was meant to make me feel better um it didn't. Watching college level DBs turn and run with him with ease is frightening. He looks so slow on go routes.

I don't think that is where he will excel in the NFL.  

Hopefully his go to route will be the 15-20 yard cross and out. That was a Davis staple and one of his drops last season that ended up as an Allen INT. 

You can scheme it up and maybe improve deep but if they don’t fear you getting over them, the underneath has a knack for getting tight.

[Big Blitz]

5 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

I like the pick.  There are concerns obviously.  And not totally unwarranted.  That is why you draft one more WR.  Why couldn't we spend our 4th on a WR and dumpster dive for a big RB instead the other way around?  If Beane had drafted another WR everyone on here would be giving this draft an A+.

 

The age of these WRs is so much more relevant then people think.  
 

Pearsall turned 23.  In September of 2023.  He’s going to be 24.  
 

Legette is going to be 24 in January.  
 

In the last 5-10 years - Smith in Philly only one of note I can find at WR - drafted at 22 or older during their senior season - how many become a star in the NFL?  
 

Someone please find me one other then Smith that I missed.  Happy to be wrong.   
 

 

The rule of thumb with age is the younger the breakout season age - that’s a greater predictor of NFL success.  
 

Coleman had 800 yards and 60 catches at 19 years old at Michigan State.  
 

If Coleman played at FSU this year at age 21 you can bet he’d be a top 10 draft pick in 2025.  
 

And obviously where they end up matters.  
 

 

Edited April 29 by Big Blitz

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

The age of these WRs is so much more relevant then people think.  
 

Pearsall turned 23.  In September of 2023.  He’s going to be 24.  
 

Legette is going to be 24 in January.  
 

In the last 5-10 years - Smith in Philly only one of note I can find at WR - drafted at 22 or older during their senior season - how many become a star in the NFL?  
 

Someone please find me one other then Smith that I missed.  Happy to be wrong.   
 

 

The rule of thumb with age is the younger the breakout season age - that’s a greater predictor of NFL success.  
 

Coleman had 800 yards and 60 catches at 19 years old at Michigan State.  
 

If Coleman played at FSU this year at age 21 you can bet he’d be a top 10 draft pick in 2025.  
 

And obviously where they end up matters.  
 

 

Not with a 4.6 40.  That is just never gonna happen. 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

Not with a 4.6 40.  That is just never gonna happen. 

I bet you'd never guess what T.O. ran at the combine... 

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I feel like they've been chasing this guy since McD got here. They just want rookie Kelvin Benjamin.

Rookie Kelvin Benjamin was really good.  Then get got injuries and fat.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

12 hours ago, ShakAttack said:

Sorry if this was already posted, but here is a good video.  While it does confirm that Coleman struggles with separation on deep routes, you can see him doing very well in creating separation on other routes. 

 

 

 

The film of his struggles to separate vertically starts around 6:20.

 

After that, you will see some impressive route running in which Coleman is successful in separating from DBs.

 

Enjoy.

 

The problem is really not the player its that this team lacks a bonafide burner on the outside. If we signed Hollywood Brown instead of Samuel this pick would make alot more sense. Right now we're lacking speed on the outside in a big way. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

5 hours ago, YodaMan79 said:

I've been trying to think of a comp that we could hope to compare K. Coleman to.  What do you guys think of Brandon Marshall as a comparison?  He had a very good career, his stats surprised me.  He's 24th in all-time yardage.  Not bad for a 4th round pick.  Look at the physical similarities (yes I know Coleman is a little lite):

 

Marshall: 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/brandon-marshall/32004d41-5237-0922-7f60-5556d0dc6ec1

 

Coleman: 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/keon-coleman/3200434f-4c29-5571-54fa-77236b775ae1

I heard this comp and would love for Coleman to be anywhere near as good as Marshall. The thing is Marshall was a 4th Rd pk for a reason and that was because of his measurables. With that all being said if Coleman puts up Marshall type numbers he will definitely exceed his draft position. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

The age of these WRs is so much more relevant then people think.  
 

Pearsall turned 23.  In September of 2023.  He’s going to be 24.  
 

Legette is going to be 24 in January.  
 

In the last 5-10 years - Smith in Philly only one of note I can find at WR - drafted at 22 or older during their senior season - how many become a star in the NFL?  
 

Someone please find me one other then Smith that I missed.  Happy to be wrong.   
 

 

The rule of thumb with age is the younger the breakout season age - that’s a greater predictor of NFL success.  
 

Coleman had 800 yards and 60 catches at 19 years old at Michigan State.  
 

If Coleman played at FSU this year at age 21 you can bet he’d be a top 10 draft pick in 2025.  
 

And obviously where they end up matters.  
 

 

 

McClaurin is the other guy who was older when drafted that stands out. I take the point on the age thing. I just think it is correlation not causation. 

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I bet you'd never guess what T.O. ran at the combine... 

 

And he was a 3rd round pick.... even way back then. The poster's point was even if Coleman had gone back to FSU and put up 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns running a 4.6 in the 40 he wouldn't have been a top 10 pick. He is right on that. Doesn't mean you can't be a good player. But 4.6 WRs are not getting drafted in the top 10. 

[Hermes]

10 hours ago, DJB said:

Watch all his targets. He can’t separate. He consistently has a DB all over him unless it’s a coverage breakdown . 
 

For a guy that is touted as a 50/50 guy he sure doesn’t come down with a lot of balls 

Just from watching the first 10 minutes of that video I saw him make more, high degree of difficulty, catches than Diggs or Davis did all of last year.  Without watching the actual all-22 footage it's tough to determine how open he was on a lot of routes and then the window closes due to his qb missing the read or poor ball placement. On top of the fact that half his targets were screens or go routes. I don't think this video is as damning as you think it is. 

 

 

[longtimebillsfan]

Hi hope people in this board und e stand that year 1 for Cloeman could be underwhelming while ge adjusts to the NFL.

 

Wr is a position that often takes a year or two to develop at the pro level.

 

I can already hear the crys of "he is a bust, a wasted draft pick, Beane is an idiot and should be fired".

 

Give this young man time to adjust to the next level before rushing to judgement.

[Sweats]

5 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

The problem is really not the player its that this team lacks a bonafide burner on the outside. If we signed Hollywood Brown instead of Samuel this pick would make alot more sense. Right now we're lacking speed on the outside in a big way. 

 

 

 

 

I don't think we're looking to play the outside very much anymore unless the play is there. I don't think we're going to force the outside. I think our philosophy lately is to dominate the middle and rely on YAC, something this team has never really had under this regime.

 

My opinion only, but i see our roster being built for the middle and vastly limiting our outside play........and don't say it can't be done. NE dominated every team for 20 years with the exact same philosophy. They were ahead of the curve and most teams are just starting to figure it out.

 

I'm happy that at least this regime recognizes that what we were doing wasn't working, so rebuild the roster with younger hungry talent and change tactics.

I'm all for it.

[harmonkillebrew]

Just now, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

I don't think we're looking to play the outside very much anymore unless the play is there. I don't think we're going to force the outside. I think our philosophy lately is to dominate the middle and rely on YAC, something this team has never really had under this regime.

 

My opinion only, but i see our roster being built for the middle and vastly limiting our outside play........and don't say it can't be done. NE dominated every team for 20 years with the exact same philosophy. They were ahead of the curve and most teams are just starting to figure it out.

 

I'm happy that at least this regime recognizes that what we were doing wasn't working, so rebuild the roster with younger hungry talent and change tactics.

I'm all for it.

I think your conclusion is right. It seems to be the strategy given the personnel priorities.

But it's a huge error, imho. We have a QB that can exploit any part of the field, yet they're hemming him in to only play conservative between the numbers, underneath football.  

[Malazan]

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

McClaurin is the other guy who was older when drafted that stands out. I take the point on the age thing. I just think it is correlation not causation. 

 

And he was a 3rd round pick.... even way back then. The poster's point was even if Coleman had gone back to FSU and put up 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns running a 4.6 in the 40 he wouldn't have been a top 10 pick. He is right on that. Doesn't mean you can't be a good player. But 4.6 WRs are not getting drafted in the top 10. 

 

Except for like Larry Fitzgerald..

[YodaMan79]

6 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I heard this comp and would love for Coleman to be anywhere near as good as Marshall. The thing is Marshall was a 4th Rd pk for a reason and that was because of his measurables. With that all being said if Coleman puts up Marshall type numbers he will definitely exceed his draft position. 

Got it.  I thought maybe his medical with his mental health struggles possibly played a role. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

 

Except for like Larry Fitzgerald..

 

Larry Fitz ran 4.47 at his pro day. He didn't run at the combine. 

[First Round Bust]

18 hours ago, MJS said:

From what I can gather, he wasn't always put in positions to succeed there. They were running screens with him. Like, what? Also throwing prayers up to him when double or triple covered or when the defender has established leverage. There were consistently under thrown balls to him, causing more contested catch situations than needed (and having to wait for a ball and the defender getting back in the play makes it harder for a receiver than just a normal 50/50 ball).

 

I actually think he might do much better in the pros with a much better QB throwing to him and not being the focal point of the offense. Of course, he'll also be going up against better talent, but I expect he will be used more appropriately than he was in college.

Well yeah, why was he running go routes all the time? I think he was mismanaged in college. They had him doing everything, including a lot of things that played to his weaknesses, not strengths.

route trees are usually limited in college to go, curls and post routes...I was surprised by this pick but considering nobody moved-up to get the top 3-4 WRs the cost must have been extremely plus the Bills had their choices or the rest of the pack of receivers...he does have strenghts - catch radius, good hands, will win jump/contested balls and this is something Diggs was in decline....its still early, there will be veteran cuts and we get more cap space come June to sign picks and possibly add a vet receiver that we can afford such as:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2024/status/available/position/wr/type/ufa/sort/contract_value

[947]

Coleman is not slow, he just ran a slow 40yd dash, there's a difference. The 40 is a track event- not a football event. His track start was awful & clearly cost him time. It's a good thing that 0% of routes in football require you to start in a track stance. I'd bet if Coleman spent a week or 2 with a track coach he'd run 4.50ish, without even getting any faster, just learning how to start properly.

 

The 40 is a great indicator of overall speed, but only if you master how to run it. It can be a poor indicator if track form is out of whack.

 

Exhibit A:  Go watch Josh Allen's 40 from the combine, it was horrendous. It looks like he never trained with a track coach before the combine, his start & running technique are so wrong. Josh is so much faster in game than he showed in this track drill while wearing shorts.

 

We should be thankful that he ran a 4.6, because if he ran a 4.50, he wouldn't have made it to us in the draft.

Edited April 29 by 947