Fact vs Fiction: "Keon Coleman is not a separator"

[BCAS Baritone]

5 minutes ago, 947 said:

Coleman is not slow, he just ran a slow 40yd dash, there's a difference. The 40 is a track event- not a football event. His track start was awful & clearly cost him time. It's a good thing that 0% of routes in football require you to start in a track stance. I'd bet if Coleman spent a week or 2 with a track coach he'd run 4.50ish, without even getting any faster, just learning how to start properly.

 

The 40 is a great indicator of overall speed, but only if you master how to run it. It can be a poor indicator if track form is out of whack.

 

Exhibit A:  Go watch Josh Allen's 40 from the combine, it was horrendous. It looks like he never trained with a track coach before the combine, his start & running technique are so wrong. Josh is so much faster in game than he showed in this track drill while wearing shorts.

 

We should be thankful that he ran a 4.6, because if he ran a 4.50, he wouldn't have made it to us in the draft.

He's frequently timed in-game as going over 20 mph, and did that in the gauntlet drill at the combine this year.  That's pretty fast, and it's in pads and doing football moves (like making catches) at the same time.

 

I doubt he ever shows up on a top-10 speedster list at the end of the year, but he isn't that far off.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-fastest-player-top-2023-speeds/80dde018741ad620c97859e5

 

[Warriorspikes51]

2 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Hi hope people in this board und e stand that year 1 for Cloeman could be underwhelming while ge adjusts to the NFL.

 

Wr is a position that often takes a year or two to develop at the pro level.

 

I can already hear the crys of "he is a bust, a wasted draft pick, Beane is an idiot and should be fired".

 

Give this young man time to adjust to the next level before rushing to judgement.

 

[sven233]

5 hours ago, Hermes said:

Just from watching the first 10 minutes of that video I saw him make more, high degree of difficulty, catches than Diggs or Davis did all of last year.  Without watching the actual all-22 footage it's tough to determine how open he was on a lot of routes and then the window closes due to his qb missing the read or poor ball placement. On top of the fact that half his targets were screens or go routes. I don't think this video is as damning as you think it is. 

 

 

 

I've seen this video.  I've also see a lot of the all-22 on him as well.  I just don't think either are all that flattering to his ability to get open quickly.  When I watch him, it seems like my reactions are as follows: "Ewww". "Yuck". "Meh". "Ugh". "WOW"!!!!!!  And this just keeps happening over and over again.

 

The thing with him is that there is not a lot of in between.  He will be blanketed on most plays, either not get a target, get a target, but it will be incomplete, or make a crazy contested catch.  But there are plenty of targets in that video and on the all-22 that leave you wanting more.  There are drops.  There are broken up passes.  There are periods of time where he never even sees a target because he isn't open.  And then there are targets where he is just bigger and stronger than his opponent and he makes great catches.  What there isn't is a lot of in between and that is why you see a lot more stat lines of him catching 4-6 balls a game rather than 8+.  Florida State used him on a lot of screens which honestly isn't his game.  But if you watch even this video, you won't see a ton of those intermediate routes where he just creates separation.  A lot of his great plays come down the field a bit where he just attacks the ball in the air.  That's fine in college.  You can get away with that.  But in the NFL, against elite NFL CBs week in and week out, asking him to beat these guys is not going to be easy. 

 

It will be up to the coaches to scheme up plays that will create leverage and space for him.  But, if you just line him up one on one, I just have a feeling that as good as he is at contested catches, he will have to make even more of them against better CBs.  That is a tough ask.  Now, I will say that one area I am excited to see him in is the scramble drill situations where all of a sudden everything is out of structure and Allen can just chuck it up to him;  I think he will thrive in chaos.

Edited April 29 by sven233

[BillsShredder83]

20 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

He’s going to have to be better at contested catches to win vertically but I believe he will eat in the intermediate middle of the field as a pro and I don’t mean from the slot 

if thats true were in great shape with him. that 2020 year josh really ate with jon brown and co at the intermediate stuff.  kincaid was also stuck with a veryyyyyyyy short depth of target under Dorsey. obv that started to change and fully expect him to be given keys to kingdom this year. gabe was just kinda whatever out there, felt like we were playing 10 v 11

[ShakAttack]

16 hours ago, DJB said:

Watch all his targets. He can’t separate. He consistently has a DB all over him unless it’s a coverage breakdown . 
 

For a guy that is touted as a 50/50 guy he sure doesn’t come down with a lot of balls 

 

I have to admit, this video is indeed a bit disappointing.  
 

Especially if you compare it to the same video of Xavier Leggette.

 

 

It’s disappointing because Coleman is billed as the “contested catch guy” but if you watch all of Leggette’s targets, he has a higher success rate of coming down with those catches, and seems to be better at just about everything else as well.

 

For all the buzz about the trade KC, it’s the trade with Carolina that leaves me with more questions.

 

Do we know for sure that Leggette was not our guy? 
 

For all those that say we wouldn’t have made the trade if Panthers were coming after our guy, ok, then what is the point of trading up one spot for either team in that case? Why would the Panthers make this trade if they weren’t worried about us taking Leggette??? They could have just had him with the next pick after we drafted Coleman if this was true. 
 

Not sure I’m convinced we didn’t get screwed.

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, ShakAttack said:

 

I have to admit, this video is indeed a bit disappointing.  
 

Especially if you compare it to the same video of Xavier Leggette.

 

 

It’s disappointing because Coleman is billed as the “contested catch guy” but if you watch all of Leggette’s targets, he has a higher success rate of coming down with those catches, and seems to be better at just about everything else as well.

 

For all the buzz about the trade KC, it’s the trade with Carolina that leaves me with more questions.

 

Do we know for sure that Leggette was not our guy? 
 

For all those that say we wouldn’t have made the trade if Panthers were coming after our guy, ok, then what is the point of trading up one spot for either team in that case? Why would the Panthers make this trade if they weren’t worried about us taking Leggette??? They could have just had him with the next pick after we drafted Coleman if this was true. 
 

Not sure I’m convinced we didn’t get screwed.

I really wanted Legette too.  It was frustrating.  For whatever reason(s)  we must have had a 2nd or 3rd round grade on Legette and Worthy for that matter

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, ShakAttack said:

 

I have to admit, this video is indeed a bit disappointing.  
 

Especially if you compare it to the same video of Xavier Leggette.

 

 

It’s disappointing because Coleman is billed as the “contested catch guy” but if you watch all of Leggette’s targets, he has a higher success rate of coming down with those catches, and seems to be better at just about everything else as well.

 

For all the buzz about the trade KC, it’s the trade with Carolina that leaves me with more questions.

 

Do we know for sure that Leggette was not our guy? 
 

For all those that say we wouldn’t have made the trade if Panthers were coming after our guy, ok, then what is the point of trading up one spot for either team in that case? Why would the Panthers make this trade if they weren’t worried about us taking Leggette??? They could have just had him with the next pick after we drafted Coleman if this was true. 
 

Not sure I’m convinced we didn’t get screwed.

We wanted Coleman the whole time. Why is this so hard to believe. Him and Dan Morgan are buddies. Legette stated that he met with Carolina a ton and they told him they were going to take him. 
 

Mike Reiss, New England’s reporter said they tried to trade up with the Bills ahead of Carolina. So is it hard to believe that Beane called up his buddy Morgan and told him NE offered him this and if he wanted to guarantee himself Legette he had to throw him a sweetener to move down a spot 

[ngbills]

8 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I bet you'd never guess what T.O. ran at the combine... 

And he was drafted in the 3rd round. A 4.6 WR will not be a top 10 pick. 

[Cson76]

Issue with this video is that all the good routes are run from the slot.  Beane says he's an X.  If we use him as a big slot, we're golden.  If we try to run him outside, we're in trouble.

[Cash]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Larry Fitz ran 4.47 at his pro day. He didn't run at the combine. 

 

Yeah the big guys who also run fast and also can run routes usually don't go later than 5.  Fitz and Megatron are the two that come to mind.  Randy Moss would've been a top 5 pick if not for attitude concerns, and even with them should've gone top 10 for sure.

 

But there's a very solid history of big guys who don't run fast, but can run routes going in the 2nd or later and turning out pretty good!  Jerry Rice is obviously the Platinum Standard, and Anquan Boldin also jumps out on that front.

[Solomon Grundy]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

McClaurin is the other guy who was older when drafted that stands out. I take the point on the age thing. I just think it is correlation not causation. 

 

And he was a 3rd round pick.... even way back then. The poster's point was even if Coleman had gone back to FSU and put up 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns running a 4.6 in the 40 he wouldn't have been a top 10 pick. He is right on that. Doesn't mean you can't be a good player. But 4.6 WRs are not getting drafted in the top 10. 

Where a person gets drafted means nothing to me. Can that person be a good to elite player is what I care about. People can have their "value". I want results. Many on this post are consumed with Keon's combine 40. I'm acknowledging that T.O. had a not so good 40 at the combine as well. Didn't see many catch T.O. on the football field. Keon said he didn't remember anyone catching him from behind either. 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

He looks explosive and athletic. Not dissimilar to Andre Reed. Used in combination with the Bills other options; a solid run game , Kincaid, Samuel and Shakier—-very useful. He will give us a fabulous goal line alternative to Josh running. When I look back at how the long game faltered during our 6-6 stretch last year, this is the Bills’ reaction. A mixture of twitchy and physical pass catchers will provide a powerful short and intermediate passing attack. At same time this group can be schemed long to keep the defense honest.  Thanks for posting the vid.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Where a person gets drafted means nothing to me. Can that person be a good to elite player is what I care about. People can have their "value". I want results. Many on this post are consumed with Keon's combine 40. I'm acknowledging that T.O. had a not so good 40 at the combine as well. Didn't see many catch T.O. on the football field. Keon said he didn't remember anyone catching him from behind either. 

 

I am NOT consumed with his 40 time though. That isn't my knock. He doesn't separate. Speed. Route running. Nous. Combination thereof. He isn't a separator. And those guys rarely work out in the NFL and when they do it is invariably as big slots.

[iccrewman112]

On 4/28/2024 at 12:00 PM, gonzo1105 said:

He’s going to have to be better at contested catches to win vertically but I believe he will eat in the intermediate middle of the field as a pro and I don’t mean from the slot 

does this mean we are going to run slants and shallow in cuts and drags? They have been missing from the offense for the past 10 years.

[Solomon Grundy]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am NOT consumed with his 40 time though. That isn't my knock. He doesn't separate. Speed. Route running. Nous. Combination thereof. He isn't a separator. And those guys rarely work out in the NFL and when they do it is invariably as big slots.

Okay. Time will tell. Remember, many of those same draft analysts said Josh Allen will never be an accurate throwing QB. 🤷

[Hermes]

7 hours ago, sven233 said:

 

I've seen this video.  I've also see a lot of the all-22 on him as well.  I just don't think either are all that flattering to his ability to get open quickly.  When I watch him, it seems like my reactions are as follows: "Ewww". "Yuck". "Meh". "Ugh". "WOW"!!!!!!  And this just keeps happening over and over again.

 

The thing with him is that there is not a lot of in between.  He will be blanketed on most plays, either not get a target, get a target, but it will be incomplete, or make a crazy contested catch.  But there are plenty of targets in that video and on the all-22 that leave you wanting more.  There are drops.  There are broken up passes.  There are periods of time where he never even sees a target because he isn't open.  And then there are targets where he is just bigger and stronger than his opponent and he makes great catches.  What there isn't is a lot of in between and that is why you see a lot more stat lines of him catching 4-6 balls a game rather than 8+.  Florida State used him on a lot of screens which honestly isn't his game.  But if you watch even this video, you won't see a ton of those intermediate routes where he just creates separation.  A lot of his great plays come down the field a bit where he just attacks the ball in the air.  That's fine in college.  You can get away with that.  But in the NFL, against elite NFL CBs week in and week out, asking him to beat these guys is not going to be easy. 

 

It will be up to the coaches to scheme up plays that will create leverage and space for him.  But, if you just line him up one on one, I just have a feeling that as good as he is at contested catches, he will have to make even more of them against better CBs.  That is a tough ask.  Now, I will say that one area I am excited to see him in is the scramble drill situations where all of a sudden everything is out of structure and Allen can just chuck it up to him;  I think he will thrive in chaos.

 

At this point, from my perspective, the Bills brass wants two types of WRs; big strong bully types (Coleman, Shorter, Cephus, Hollins, Knox, maybe Kincaid), and fast, shifty, precision types (Samuel, Shakir, Hamler, Isabella, maybe Kincaid). Not only that, they want to be multiple, meaning, able to run the full playbook with each of these guys lined up at any of position. 

 

It's hard to type it all out but I'm imagining a playback where on any given play the defense is legitimately guessing who's getting the ball because anyone realistically anyone could and have not only a positive, but potentially major impact on any given play because of the mismatch problems these formations present. 

 

The Bills might even transition to a heavy screen team given the amount Coleman ran and having speedy WRs and backs to catch out of the backfield. Having Kincaid and Coleman lined up in trips with Samuel off the line behind them and Knox on the opposite side of the line and Cook lined up next to Allen in shotgun present a number of match up problems that I can't imagine many teams can run with. 

 

All of this said, that's my vision for the Bills offense,  a multiple, spread offense that can condense to heavy formations and big body teams to wear them down and create even more opportunities late in the game from teams chasing around the fast guys and taking shots from the bullies. 

 

[Warcodered]

On 4/28/2024 at 5:04 PM, nedboy7 said:

I like the pick.  There are concerns obviously.  And not totally unwarranted.  That is why you draft one more WR.  Why couldn't we spend our 4th on a WR and dumpster dive for a big RB instead the other way around?  If Beane had drafted another WR everyone on here would be giving this draft an A+.

The RB they picked up looks like a great addition, and not for nothing but this will be year 3 for Cook who if he manages to step up his receiving game more would be the kind of RB you sign to a second deal, but either way it's good to not forget that decision is down the road.

On 4/28/2024 at 5:17 PM, VW82 said:

I always have to laugh when defenses play zone vs us. Josh excels vs zone. Diggs and Beasley were always so good finding soft spots. Kincaid is obviously really good vs zone. Anyone dumb enough to try and zone us deserves what they get.

 

I will say that I’m interested in Coleman’s blocking. He’s a big dude and could really help there if he’s committed to it.

Saw a clip of him on plays as a blocker, DBs may have had to seek trauma counseling.

[longtimebillsfan]

12 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Exactly my point.

[HappyDays]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He is right on that. Doesn't mean you can't be a good player. But 4.6 WRs are not getting drafted in the top 10. 

 

Mike Evans ran a 4.53 and got drafted 7th overall. Supposedly that's exactly what Coleman ran at his pro day. Drake London ran a 4.58 and went 8th overall. So it's definitely possible Coleman would have been a top 10 pick if he had gone back and really dominated on the field in his 3rd year.

 

Edited April 30 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mike Evans ran a 4.53 and got drafted 7th overall. Supposedly that's exactly what Coleman ran at his pro day. Drake London ran a 4.58 and went 8th overall. So it's definitely possible Coleman would have been a top 10 pick if he had gone back and really dominated on the field in his 3rd year.

 

 

Well you know my views on Drake London he was a big reach by the Falcons and is another non-separator.  But that wasn't really my point. My point was 4.6 you ain't going top 10. If Coleman had gone back to school, had a 1,000 yard season and then run a 4.53 he could have been a top 10 pick. But if he'd run a 4.61 he wouldn't have done. I didn't say he wasn't capable of running faster than 4.61. I always said his Combine time was not what he was capable of.