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Polls Are Basically Useless


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6 minutes ago, Westside said:

Only because your brain dead leader is losing. The people are waking up to the mentally unstable leftists BS. 

Oh look, a guy who believes what the polls are telling him to believe 🤣 :doh:

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I've pretty much stopped looking at state-wide polls, or even worse Congressional district polls. There is so much error there that it's hard to draw any conclusions.

Weirdly, though, national presidential polling is still pretty good. I say "weirdly" because who answers their phone and agrees to take a poll? I've had a few of these calls over the years that I have answered, but they always seem kind of fake and I don't go ahead; they won't give me the name of the company doing the polling. If they simply said "Quinnipiac" or something I recognized I would do it.

So in 2020 we had Biden with about a 7 point lead in the national poll aggregates, and he won by about 5, within what we would consider margin of error (there is no such thing when aggregating, but you know what I mean). Pretty good, all things considered.

 

Nate Silver is promising his model before the debate, so we'll see.

For now, fivethirtyeight (which he really no longer is a part of) has it as a virtual tie - Biden + 0.2 in the national aggregate. But that's with RFK still drawing 9+ percent. The national polls really don't mean anything in the electoral college, but I think it's fair to assume that with the electoral college advantage the Republicans have Biden will need to win the national popular vote by at least the same margin as he won by in 2020.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, JDHillFan said:


Darn

You are celebrating any of this?  Anyone not embarrassed all the way around does not give a F about our country.   Yep Biden flubbed, he's a walking corpse.  You think the orange abortions performance was that much better?  Your bar is set way too low.  You accept lie after lie after lie like it's normal.  We are all losing right now.  

 

 

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28 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

You are celebrating any of this?  Anyone not embarrassed all the way around does not give a F about our country.   Yep Biden flubbed, he's a walking corpse.  You think the orange abortions performance was that much better?  Your bar is set way too low.  You accept lie after lie after lie like it's normal.  We are all losing right now.  

 

 


 

Lol, yes.. it was that much better.  
 

Absurd rant. 
 

Politicians lie… Biden repeated multiple debunked comments, stated the Border Patrol endorsed him, no soldiers died under his watch and somehow he inherited both high inflation and no inflation (whichever suited his argument).

 

Trump had multiple memorable clips and made the most coherent point of the night by repeatedly hitting Biden on illegal immigration. 
 

Even on abortion .. Biden’s wheelhouse, Trump gave a very moderate answer while Biden gave us the weirdest rendition of Roe V Wade ever orated, implied we have an epidemic of siblings raping each other and talked about Laken Riley. 
 

 

Edited by SCBills
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18 minutes ago, SCBills said:


 

Lol, yes.. it was that much better.  
 

Absurd rant. 
 

Politicians lie… Biden repeated multiple debunked comments, stated the Border Patrol endorsed him, no soldiers died under his watch and somehow he inherited both high inflation and no inflation (whichever suited his argument).

 

Trump had multiple memorable clips and made the most coherent point of the night by repeatedly hitting Biden on illegal immigration. 
 

Even on abortion .. Biden’s wheelhouse, Trump gave a very moderate answer while Biden gave us the weirdest rendition of Roe V Wade ever orated, implied we have an epidemic of siblings raping each other and talked about Laken Riley. 
 

 

Moderate answer?  I guess you missed the post birth abortion comment?  Nearly every statement he says is outright lie or absurd exaggeration.   You just don't care.  You absolutely dont, just like some dems are absurd for not caring Biden is a zombie you excuse absurd falsehoods and exaggerations.  

 

Laugh it up, do it while you can.  Because long term?  Your party is f'd.   True Republicans, the ones absurdly called rinos,  are embarrassed as dems currently are.

Edited by L Ron Burgundy
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On 6/25/2024 at 7:52 AM, Gregg said:

 

Between now and Nov you will see these polls say Trump has taken the lead over Biden and then Biden takes the lead over Trump. This will continue to go back and forth. We will find out in Nov what happens until then it's all speculation.

 

There's only 1 poll that counts and its still months away.

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2 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

You are celebrating any of this?  Anyone not embarrassed all the way around does not give a F about our country.   Yep Biden flubbed, he's a walking corpse.  You think the orange abortions performance was that much better?  Your bar is set way too low.  You accept lie after lie after lie like it's normal.  We are all losing right now.  

 

 

My comment - “darn”. A little melodramatic aren’t you?
 

Your post is evidence that you don’t follow along very well. As with most of the younger left-leaners here, you show up to rage/whine and then break out a stale crack about boomers.
 

Everyone has their thing. Enjoy the raging/whining. 

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2 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

You are celebrating any of this?  Anyone not embarrassed all the way around does not give a F about our country.   Yep Biden flubbed, he's a walking corpse.  You think the orange abortions performance was that much better?  Your bar is set way too low.  You accept lie after lie after lie like it's normal.  We are all losing right now.  

 

 

Unfortunately, these are the only choices the Dems and Reps will allow us to have…And because we can’t have a dead person in charge of the country, there is only one other choice…

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7 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Moderate answer?  I guess you missed the post birth abortion comment?  Nearly every statement he says is outright lie or absurd exaggeration.   You just don't care.  You absolutely dont, just like some dems are absurd for not caring Biden is a zombie you excuse absurd falsehoods and exaggerations.  

 

Laugh it up, do it while you can.  Because long term?  Your party is f'd.   True Republicans, the ones absurdly called rinos,  are embarrassed as dems currently are.

"they didn’t put themselves down as neo-Nazis, and you had some very bad people in that group. But you also had people that were very fine people on both sides." The next comment from Trump to press "I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and white nationalists because they should be condemned totally". 

 

But I am the one who believes the lies. Bidens is the easiest to debunk. I bet you believe allowing people to vote for Trump is a threat to our democracy also? Ron maybe get mad at those lying to you.

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10 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Moderate answer?  I guess you missed the post birth abortion comment?  Nearly every statement he says is outright lie or absurd exaggeration.   You just don't care.  You absolutely dont, just like some dems are absurd for not caring Biden is a zombie you excuse absurd falsehoods and exaggerations.  

 

Laugh it up, do it while you can.  Because long term?  Your party is f'd.   True Republicans, the ones absurdly called rinos,  are embarrassed as dems currently are.


Yes, moderate.  Trump is as progressive as it gets for a Republican on abortion.

 

The post-birth stuff is typical politician fear mongering/stretching the truth.  Similar to how Dems say Trump will

ban all abortion, even when he explicitly states the only issue he cares about relative to preventing abortion is elective late term. 
 

Trump is the President who got Roe overturned so Dems will rely on that to misinform their voters on his intentions in a second term.  
 

Dems went from safe, legal, rare to anytime/any-reason with unfortunate comments from folks like Northam, so Republicans will rely on that to paint Dems as barbaric.  
 

“But Trump lied!!!”  Thats how politics work.. Biden lies, Trump lies, Newsom lies etc etc

 

They’ll attack him for having “morals of an alley cat”, while Biden stole Jill from her husband at the time and Newsom smashed his campaign managers wife.  

By and large, these people are all the same.   You’ve just been conditioned to hate Trump more. 
 

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On 6/25/2024 at 10:41 AM, Tiberius said:

Trump is killing Biden in all the state polls. It's not even close. If these polls are right then Biden is going to be destroyed in November. I don't buy it for a second. These polls are BS 100% 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

 

Not even close to true as Nate Silver said the election was "not a toss up" as Trump wins in about 2/3 of the models run.  But this post aged well.

 

12 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

You are celebrating any of this?  Anyone not embarrassed all the way around does not give a F about our country.   Yep Biden flubbed, he's a walking corpse.  You think the orange abortions performance was that much better?  Your bar is set way too low.  You accept lie after lie after lie like it's normal.  We are all losing right now. 

 

LOL!  You would have been celebrating if Biden looked compos mentis and ensured his re-election.  And that you think he didn't lie is also laughable.

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12 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

You are celebrating any of this?  Anyone not embarrassed all the way around does not give a F about our country.   Yep Biden flubbed, he's a walking corpse.  You think the orange abortions performance was that much better?  Your bar is set way too low.  You accept lie after lie after lie like it's normal.  We are all losing right now.  

 

 

I'm not sure why the debate changed anyone's opinion of either candidate. It shouldn't have. They both are what most of us believed they were.

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3 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I'm not sure why the debate changed anyone's opinion of either candidate. It shouldn't have. They both are what most of us believed they were.

 

The Dems/MSM were quite successful in hiding/excusing Biden's failing mental condition.  Hell even the NYT, is calling for him to step down and they were major purveyors of disinfo in that regard.

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11 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I'm not sure why the debate changed anyone's opinion of either candidate. It shouldn't have. They both are what most of us believed they were.

 

There is a very, very small percentage of independents that can be swayed.

 

But the Finding types? Nope.  

 

For them it went from insisting Biden is just fine a few days ago to well sure he's a shuffling corpse but I'm still voting for him anyway.  They won't even consider voting third party because doing so helps the orange menace.

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26 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The Dems/MSM were quite successful in hiding/excusing Biden's failing mental condition.  Hell even the NYT, is calling for him to step down and they were major purveyors of disinfo in that regard.

Disagree. Joe's decline has been most obvious.

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20 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Disagree. Joe's decline has been most obvious.

 

Then why the calls for him to step down now, not only from the MSM but from Dems here on the board, after the debate?

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