Big Blitz Posted September 7 Posted September 7 3 hours ago, Starr-Bills said: Nate silver of Polymarket (bookie & chief) that is owned by Peter Teal who hand picked JV as VP for the felon and buddies with Elmo who is giving the felon $45M in make good advertising on twitter? oh cool fantasy world you live in there. Sounds like he has a massive reputation to protect. Making wildly wrong forecasts could be bad for business.
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7 Posted September 7 7 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Thank you for the clarification. I will forward to Nate Silver so that he can stop referring to his stuff as a “model”. You are mixing up apples and oranges. He is an advisor to Polymarket, which is a betting market. He is also a political prognosticator, in which role he has developed/refined a projection model based on independent polls. By the way, Nate's podcast with Maria Konnikova, Risky Business, is worth a (free) subscription. I confess to having a thing for Maria ...
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted September 7 Posted September 7 6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: You are mixing up apples and oranges. He is an advisor to Polymarket, which is a betting market. He is also a political prognosticator, in which role he has developed/refined a projection model based on independent polls. By the way, Nate's podcast with Maria Konnikova, Risky Business, is worth a (free) subscription. I confess to having a thing for Maria ... Someone has certainly been mixing things up. My posts have been in regard to Silver. Ppppp
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7 Posted September 7 51 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Article/data is almost two years old. I suspect those in the business are concerned with lessons learned and have applied some learning since 2022. I will wait until November to see if they have improved. Happy to crucify all of them if they are wildly off base. It's ok to just admit that you were confused. The article you commented on is about prediction markets, not electoral projection models. I am thinking of changing my screen name to JD Hill Fans Are Not Mentally Fit.
dickleyjones Posted September 7 Posted September 7 Polls are not useless. Some people will choose to vote based on polls. Polls are accurate. The 1000 people surveyed answer, the results are tallied, perhaps some mistakes are made. But on the whole, the poll itself is likely accurate. Polls are not predictive. Tiny sample sizes, terrible randomization, plenty of confounding factors. A single poll means nothing about the future.
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted September 7 Posted September 7 2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: It's ok to just admit that you were confused. The article you commented on is about prediction markets, not electoral projection models. I am thinking of changing my screen name to JD Hill Fans Are Not Mentally Fit. It can be hard to stay focused at your age. Soon you will be aging out of the public part of life. Stay strong.
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7 Posted September 7 26 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: It can be hard to stay focused at your age. Soon you will be aging out of the public part of life. Stay strong. See what I mean? You simply can't admit that you confused Prediction Markets with Projection Models. But then I guess Pops never admits that he found his missing glasses on the top of his head.
Starr-Bills Posted September 7 Posted September 7 4 hours ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Absolutely. It will be interesting to watch unfold. In Silver’s case he’s definitely got his credibility on the line. He can survive being a little wrong but if he’s way off it’s sayonara time. I’m not willing to declare them “very flawed”. That will have to wait until November. Serious question, anyone else wondering what’s up with all the gambling (sports, and now politics, etc)
L Ron Burgundy Posted September 9 Posted September 9 16 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said: I am finding them more useful recently Do you ever check sources? I know you're an anti msm fella, which is fair, but do you ever do a quick check to see if a source is credible?
Orlando Buffalo Posted September 9 Posted September 9 23 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said: Do you ever check sources? I know you're an anti msm fella, which is fair, but do you ever do a quick check to see if a source is credible? I know it is not credible, it is a joke. The NYT did not say Trump is 99% to win.
L Ron Burgundy Posted September 9 Posted September 9 3 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said: I know it is not credible, it is a joke. The NYT did not say Trump is 99% to win. Ya got me. I thought there was a chance you were joking but I was definitely leaning towards you being serious. I got got.
BillsFanNC Posted November 3 Posted November 3 When you've ruined your credibility completely this is what happens.
Tiberius Posted November 3 Author Posted November 3 If Harris wins Iowa that means she wins in other "red" states, also Turnout is high, which is good for Dems.
Tiberius Posted November 3 Author Posted November 3 Trump's base is shrinking, he has lost too many middle of the road voters and people are just sick of his antics 1
Recommended Posts