Big Blitz Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 3 hours ago, Starr-Bills said: Nate silver of Polymarket (bookie & chief) that is owned by Peter Teal who hand picked JV as VP for the felon and buddies with Elmo who is giving the felon $45M in make good advertising on twitter? oh cool fantasy world you live in there. Sounds like he has a massive reputation to protect. Making wildly wrong forecasts could be bad for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 7 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Thank you for the clarification. I will forward to Nate Silver so that he can stop referring to his stuff as a “model”. You are mixing up apples and oranges. He is an advisor to Polymarket, which is a betting market. He is also a political prognosticator, in which role he has developed/refined a projection model based on independent polls. By the way, Nate's podcast with Maria Konnikova, Risky Business, is worth a (free) subscription. I confess to having a thing for Maria ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: You are mixing up apples and oranges. He is an advisor to Polymarket, which is a betting market. He is also a political prognosticator, in which role he has developed/refined a projection model based on independent polls. By the way, Nate's podcast with Maria Konnikova, Risky Business, is worth a (free) subscription. I confess to having a thing for Maria ... Someone has certainly been mixing things up. My posts have been in regard to Silver. Ppppp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 51 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Article/data is almost two years old. I suspect those in the business are concerned with lessons learned and have applied some learning since 2022. I will wait until November to see if they have improved. Happy to crucify all of them if they are wildly off base. It's ok to just admit that you were confused. The article you commented on is about prediction markets, not electoral projection models. I am thinking of changing my screen name to JD Hill Fans Are Not Mentally Fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dickleyjones Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Polls are not useless. Some people will choose to vote based on polls. Polls are accurate. The 1000 people surveyed answer, the results are tallied, perhaps some mistakes are made. But on the whole, the poll itself is likely accurate. Polls are not predictive. Tiny sample sizes, terrible randomization, plenty of confounding factors. A single poll means nothing about the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: It's ok to just admit that you were confused. The article you commented on is about prediction markets, not electoral projection models. I am thinking of changing my screen name to JD Hill Fans Are Not Mentally Fit. It can be hard to stay focused at your age. Soon you will be aging out of the public part of life. Stay strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 26 minutes ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: It can be hard to stay focused at your age. Soon you will be aging out of the public part of life. Stay strong. See what I mean? You simply can't admit that you confused Prediction Markets with Projection Models. But then I guess Pops never admits that he found his missing glasses on the top of his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starr-Bills Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 4 hours ago, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Absolutely. It will be interesting to watch unfold. In Silver’s case he’s definitely got his credibility on the line. He can survive being a little wrong but if he’s way off it’s sayonara time. I’m not willing to declare them “very flawed”. That will have to wait until November. Serious question, anyone else wondering what’s up with all the gambling (sports, and now politics, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Buffalo Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 I am finding them more useful recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L Ron Burgundy Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 16 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said: I am finding them more useful recently Do you ever check sources? I know you're an anti msm fella, which is fair, but do you ever do a quick check to see if a source is credible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Buffalo Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 23 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said: Do you ever check sources? I know you're an anti msm fella, which is fair, but do you ever do a quick check to see if a source is credible? I know it is not credible, it is a joke. The NYT did not say Trump is 99% to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L Ron Burgundy Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 3 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said: I know it is not credible, it is a joke. The NYT did not say Trump is 99% to win. Ya got me. I thought there was a chance you were joking but I was definitely leaning towards you being serious. I got got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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