Draft Analysis - We're All Debi from Depew

[Roundybout]

1 hour ago, Terry Tate said:

I can't believe they picked Travis Clayton at 221. Had him at 230 on my board. Reach.

 

Sounds like anti-British racism smh 

[GoBills808]

25 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Also not what it is. I wanted Legette, one of the top Centers, and Troy Franklin or Tez Walker. I'm not crying on the message board that the FO should be fired. The OP has noted the other players he wanted too. 

 

So no, it's not "difference of opinion" that leads to one wanting to remind people about humility, it's just grown humans acting like babies.

I guess you and OP can pat each other on the back from your emotional high ground? Like what is the point of this seriously, nobody thinks they know more than an actual NFL front office. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Every blue moon, an intrepid crime podcaster breaks a criminal case.  But imagine your daughter was kidnapped and you had a binary choice: (A) You can have the FBI, with all its trained investigators, forensic scientists, labs, subpoena power, police connections, and other resources handle the investigation.  (B)  You can have Debi from Depew, who views herself as an investigative reporter because she podcasts from her mom’s basement, search for your daughter.  I don’t know about you, but I’d choose A.   

 

It's part of fandom to stand by our unfounded opinions, call the GM a moron, and generally spout nonsense. But, if we want to be honest about it, we’re all - to varying degrees - Debi from Depew. 

 

Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks.  Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano.  And, look, talent evaluation is hard.  Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft.  Their hit rate isn’t high.  Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good.  They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge. 

 

I doubt if there’s anyone on this board who knows as much about scouting college players as Tyler Pratt who starts researching and evaluating players at 5:30 am each day and keeps at it until 8pm.  Tyler is an area scout for the Bills Personnel Department which includes 18 dedicated fulltime professionals, not including the admin folks, and is aided by 7 equally dedicated professionals in the Analytics & Football Research Department.  While none of us matches Pratt hours and expertise, we don’t hesitate to act like we’re smarter than Beane and his entire, fantastically resourced organization. 

 

So when someone starts spouting that Beane is an idiot because he drafted a slow wideout, a lineman with short arms, and a guy who never played football before, I just yawn.  Debi from Depew doesn’t interest me.  Beane and his team have spent millions of dollars, studied thousands of hours of tape, conducted hundreds of interviews.  I just hope the Bills FBI (Foot Ball Investigative) unit is better than the FBI units at our rivals.  Time will tell.  But I trust Beane and his team of experts far more than Debi from Depew.

Good post.

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You give these guys way too much credit.  

 

Like Billy Beane said in Money Ball " You don't know" 

 

These scouts and GMs are more experienced than us. No doubt. But they are not infallible and who is to know if they are even good at their job. I have to be correct 100% of the time in my job. What is the success rate for these guys? 

 

I mean how many first round absolute busts do we have to list to realize GMs just don't know.  The list of HOF QBs is far far less than the list of first round busts.

 

Most on here were ok with Coleman. Some wanted another guy. What my guess is the vast majority of us wanted was another WR. Because at the end of the day these guys don't know. And two chances to be correct is far better than one chance. 

No one is saying they are infallible.  I too have a job where I have to be correct 100%, but the variables involved in my job are way less that picking an NFL player.  Probably for your job as well.  

[In Summary]

Media pre-draft: Propose fantasy draft scenarios to entertain listeners and get ratings.

Media post-draft: Chastise said listeners for being upset about thinking those scenarios were realistic.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I guess you and OP can pat each other on the back from your emotional high ground? Like what is the point of this seriously, nobody thinks they know more than an actual NFL front office. 

I wouldn’t be sure of that if you read posts from the last couple days.

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I wouldn’t be sure of that if you read posts from the last couple days.

The overwhelming majority of negative posts re this latest draft are reasonable critiques imo

 

op is tilting at windmills 

[HardyBoy]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Thanks dude 

 

I call everyone dude for what it's worth...and you didn't address the point of my post

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I guess you and OP can pat each other on the back from your emotional high ground? Like what is the point of this seriously, nobody thinks they know more than an actual NFL front office. 

Yeah man, absolutely nobody. Keep telling yourself that. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Well, I'm admittedly Debi from Depew too and I don't.  But I suppose some versions do.  

Honestly? I prefer Carrie from Cheektowaga

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah man, absolutely nobody. Keep telling yourself that. 

You can easily put everyone who thinks otherwise on ignore

 

Wasting time worrying about those posts is just a waste of time

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks. 

 

I would like to see some non-anecdotal data for this assertion.

 

A few years back an analysis was run on the Bills draft record during their drought. Nearly 20 years of data. In that span, it was shown via analysis that if the Bills front office had simply followed a publicly available player ranking (think: Kiper, McShay, etc), they would have drafted more impact players than they actually did.

 

A similar one was down for Oakland I believe.

Thats right - the professional NFL front offices of multiple teams, with access to dozens of scouts, in-person interviews, and player data galore, was beaten out by a generic player ranking list. 

 

Too many people buy into the “expert” fallacy. That simply because someone does something for a living, that they are better at that job than someone who doesn’t do it for a living. It’s not always accurate. 

[SirAndrew]

I respect this take, but I think differing opinions is what makes a football message board exist. We can’t all say “great draft, Beane knows everything, and can see the future”. I’ve always really liked Beane, and he certainly knows more about football than I, but that doesn’t mean he’s always going to be right. Brilliant musicians have horrible albums, and it’s ok to say we don’t like them too if we’re looking for an analogy. Beane has a vision, and it’s different than what mine would be, that’s alright, but NFL GM’s aren’t always right. Discussing whether we like a draft isn’t that bizarre. Beane might be right, but there is a chance this draft is a bust. 

Edited April 28 by SirAndrew

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

The overwhelming majority of negative posts re this latest draft are reasonable critiques imo

 

op is tilting at windmills 

 

Debi from Depew in the house?

 

Lol, I'm just kidding

[SirAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I would like to see some non-anecdotal data for this assertion.

 

A few years back an analysis was run on the Bills draft record during their drought. Nearly 20 years of data. In that span, it was shown via analysis that if the Bills front office had simply followed a publicly available player ranking (think: Kiper, McShay, etc), they would have drafted more impact players than they actually did.

 

A similar one was down for Oakland I believe.

Thats right - the professional NFL front offices of multiple teams, with access to dozens of scouts, in-person interviews, and player data galore, was beaten out by a generic player ranking list. 

 

Too many people buy into the “expert” fallacy. That simply because someone does something for a living, that they are better at that job than someone who doesn’t do it for a living. It’s not always accurate. 

You can know a player inside out, but that’s the college version of that guy. There’s no way to predict player success with one hundred percent certainty. Some GM’s obviously do better than others, but this isn’t science. NFL GM’s simply speculate with more knowledge than the average fan, but it’s still a game of chance. 

[Einstein]

 

6 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

I respect this take, but I think differing opinions is what makes a football message exist. We can’t all say “great draft, Beane knows everything, and can see the future”. 

 

That would be quite the forum! Just imagine it…

 

————-

 

Joe: Beane did a splendid job.

 

Bob: He sure did Joe! What a splendid job he did.

 

Mary: Oh my goodness it was super splendid.

 

Joe: Indeed, more splendid that splenda!

 

Bob: Do you think Beane prefers splenda?

 

Mary: I bet he does! After all, he did a splendid job.

 

Joe: Remember last years draft? He did a stupendous job then.

 

Bob: Oh yes, very stupendous last year.

 

Gary: Sorry i’m late to the thread everyone. Has anyone mentioned how stupendous last years draft was?

 

Mary: Oh yes Gary, it was stupendous.

 

Doug: What about the year before that though? It was

supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.

 

Joe: Indeed!

Edited April 28 by Einstein

[LeGOATski]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You can easily put everyone who thinks otherwise on ignore

 

Wasting time worrying about those posts is just a waste of time

I don't worry. There are plenty of other good posts I've responded to. I'm only addressing you here because you clearly didn't understand the thread.

[White Linen]

4 hours ago, Success said:

Not to disparage anyone here - but I always crack a smile when I see someone complain about a pick because of where they had that player on "their board."

 

I'm always kind of curious, too:  how did they put their board together?  Did they scour film of a huge # of collegiate players, all day, every day of the year?  Did they go to games and workouts?  Did they rigorously compare players at various positions with others who spent as much time as them watching and evaluating?

 

Because those are the things Beane & our scouts do.  I have a hunch that most here look at mocks for a few months, and check some youtube on only the top players - and that's about it.

 

 

I'll add that you also have to factor in the players that transferred through the portal, making the evaluation even more difficult and further disqualifying amateurs.

 

 

Edited April 28 by White Linen

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, KentuckyBillsFan said:

It doesn’t take a football genius to see that Josh freaking Allen shouldn’t have Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel as his primary WRs going into his age 28 season

 

Why not?   The Chiefs' WR room last season consisted of Mecole Hardman, Richie James, Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, Justin Ross, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Montrell Washington, and Justin Watson.  Who were Mahomes' primary WRs in 2023?  Hardman, Rice, Valdes-Scantling.

 

49 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I would like to see some non-anecdotal data for this assertion.

 

A few years back an analysis was run on the Bills draft record during their drought. Nearly 20 years of data. In that span, it was shown via analysis that if the Bills front office had simply followed a publicly available player ranking (think: Kiper, McShay, etc), they would have drafted more impact players than they actually did.

 

A similar one was down for Oakland I believe.

Thats right - the professional NFL front offices of multiple teams, with access to dozens of scouts, in-person interviews, and player data galore, was beaten out by a generic player ranking list. 

 

Too many people buy into the “expert” fallacy. That simply because someone does something for a living, that they are better at that job than someone who doesn’t do it for a living. It’s not always accurate. 

 

The Bills under Ralph Wilson's surrogate Russ Brandon the Bills' primary objective was to make the team as profitable as possible.   One of Brandon Beane's first acts as GM was to fire most of staff involved in scouting and talent evaluation.  Pre-Beane, one of the Bills highest ranked talent evaluators, Tom Modrak, worked part time ... from his home in Philadelphia. 

 

Not all GMs and FOs are created equal.

Edited April 28 by SoTier

[Buddy Hix]

Terry Fontenot destroys this entire post