Draft Analysis - We're All Debi from Depew

[hondo in seattle]

Every blue moon, an intrepid crime podcaster breaks a criminal case.  But imagine your daughter was kidnapped and you had a binary choice: (A) You can have the FBI, with all its trained investigators, forensic scientists, labs, subpoena power, police connections, and other resources handle the investigation.  (B)  You can have Debi from Depew, who views herself as an investigative reporter because she podcasts from her mom’s basement, search for your daughter.  I don’t know about you, but I’d choose A.   

 

It's part of fandom to stand by our unfounded opinions, call the GM a moron, and generally spout nonsense. But, if we want to be honest about it, we’re all - to varying degrees - Debi from Depew. 

 

Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks.  Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano.  And, look, talent evaluation is hard.  Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft.  Their hit rate isn’t high.  Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good.  They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge. 

 

I doubt if there’s anyone on this board who knows as much about scouting college players as Tyler Pratt who starts researching and evaluating players at 5:30 am each day and keeps at it until 8pm.  Tyler is an area scout for the Bills Personnel Department which includes 18 dedicated fulltime professionals, not including the admin folks, and is aided by 7 equally dedicated professionals in the Analytics & Football Research Department.  While none of us matches Pratt hours and expertise, we don’t hesitate to act like we’re smarter than Beane and his entire, fantastically resourced organization. 

 

So when someone starts spouting that Beane is an idiot because he drafted a slow wideout, a lineman with short arms, and a guy who never played football before, I just yawn.  Debi from Depew doesn’t interest me.  Beane and his team have spent millions of dollars, studied thousands of hours of tape, conducted hundreds of interviews.  I just hope the Bills FBI (Foot Ball Investigative) unit is better than the FBI units at our rivals.  Time will tell.  But I trust Beane and his team of experts far more than Debi from Depew.

[Solomon Grundy]

8 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Every blue moon, an intrepid crime podcaster breaks a criminal case.  But imagine your daughter was kidnapped and you had a binary choice: (A) You can have the FBI, with all its trained investigators, forensic scientists, labs, subpoena power, police connections, and other resources handle the investigation.  (B)  You can have Debi from Depew, who views herself as an investigative reporter because she podcasts from her mom’s basement, search for your daughter.  I don’t know about you, but I’d choose A.   

 

It's part of fandom to stand by our unfounded opinions, call the GM a moron, and generally spout nonsense. But, if we want to be honest about it, we’re all - to varying degrees - Debi from Depew. 

 

Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks.  Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano.  And, look, talent evaluation is hard.  Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft.  Their hit rate isn’t high.  Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good.  They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge. 

 

I doubt if there’s anyone on this board who knows as much about scouting college players as Tyler Pratt who starts researching and evaluating players at 5:30 am each day and keeps at it until 8pm.  Tyler is an area scout for the Bills Personnel Department which includes 18 dedicated fulltime professionals, not including the admin folks, and is aided by 7 equally dedicated professionals in the Analytics & Football Research Department.  While none of us matches Pratt hours and expertise, we don’t hesitate to act like we’re smarter than Beane and his entire, fantastically resourced organization. 

 

So when someone starts spouting that Beane is an idiot because he drafted a slow wideout, a lineman with short arms, and a guy who never played football before, I just yawn.  Debi from Depew doesn’t interest me.  Beane and his team have spent millions of dollars, studied thousands of hours of tape, conducted hundreds of interviews.  I just hope the Bills FBI (Foot Ball Investigative) unit is better than the FBI units at our rivals.  Time will tell.  But I trust Beane and his team of experts far more than Debi from Depew.

Is Debi a hottie? 😎

[Gigs]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Every blue moon, an intrepid crime podcaster breaks a criminal case.  But imagine your daughter was kidnapped and you had a binary choice: (A) You can have the FBI, with all its trained investigators, forensic scientists, labs, subpoena power, police connections, and other resources handle the investigation.  (B)  You can have Debi from Depew, who views herself as an investigative reporter because she podcasts from her mom’s basement, search for your daughter.  I don’t know about you, but I’d choose A.   

 

It's part of fandom to stand by our unfounded opinions, call the GM a moron, and generally spout nonsense. But, if we want to be honest about it, we’re all - to varying degrees - Debi from Depew. 

 

Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks.  Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano.  And, look, talent evaluation is hard.  Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft.  Their hit rate isn’t high.  Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good.  They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge. 

 

I doubt if there’s anyone on this board who knows as much about scouting college players as Tyler Pratt who starts researching and evaluating players at 5:30 am each day and keeps at it until 8pm.  Tyler is an area scout for the Bills Personnel Department which includes 18 dedicated fulltime professionals, not including the admin folks, and is aided by 7 equally dedicated professionals in the Analytics & Football Research Department.  While none of us matches Pratt hours and expertise, we don’t hesitate to act like we’re smarter than Beane and his entire, fantastically resourced organization. 

 

So when someone starts spouting that Beane is an idiot because he drafted a slow wideout, a lineman with short arms, and a guy who never played football before, I just yawn.  Debi from Depew doesn’t interest me.  Beane and his team have spent millions of dollars, studied thousands of hours of tape, conducted hundreds of interviews.  I just hope the Bills FBI (Foot Ball Investigative) unit is better than the FBI units at our rivals.  Time will tell.  But I trust Beane and his team of experts far more than Debi from Depew.

Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 40. He was so ***** terrible. League must've felt bad for the 49ers and let them win those SBs. How does Bill Walsh get in the HoF with such a stupid draft pick? Didn't he know slow receivers like Jerry Rice are terrible? 2BD needs to build a time machine to prevent 49ers from tarnishing their great dynasty with drafting that slow loser. 

 

And don't get me started on the other slow pokes in Emmitt Smith and Frank Gore. When will NFL GMs learn that 40 times are way more important than on-field ability, winning super bowls or even personal accolades and records. If Smith and Rice could only move faster, the Cowboys and 49ers would've had at least 20 more superbowls.

 

We are doooooooooooomed!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

You give these guys way too much credit.  

 

Like Billy Beane said in Money Ball " You don't know" 

 

These scouts and GMs are more experienced than us. No doubt. But they are not infallible and who is to know if they are even good at their job. I have to be correct 100% of the time in my job. What is the success rate for these guys? 

 

I mean how many first round absolute busts do we have to list to realize GMs just don't know.  The list of HOF QBs is far far less than the list of first round busts.

 

Most on here were ok with Coleman. Some wanted another guy. What my guess is the vast majority of us wanted was another WR. Because at the end of the day these guys don't know. And two chances to be correct is far better than one chance. 

[GoBills808]

I don't think knowing more than the fans is much of a flex tbh

 

That shouldn't even be the minimum job requiremrnt

[Success]

Not to disparage anyone here - but I always crack a smile when I see someone complain about a pick because of where they had that player on "their board."

 

I'm always kind of curious, too:  how did they put their board together?  Did they scour film of a huge # of collegiate players, all day, every day of the year?  Did they go to games and workouts?  Did they rigorously compare players at various positions with others who spent as much time as them watching and evaluating?

 

Because those are the things Beane & our scouts do.  I have a hunch that most here look at mocks for a few months, and check some youtube on only the top players - and that's about it.

 

[Terry Tate]

I can't believe they picked Travis Clayton at 221. Had him at 230 on my board. Reach.

[boater]

Does Debi have big accoutrements?  (hooters)

[LeGOATski]

41 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Every blue moon, an intrepid crime podcaster breaks a criminal case.  But imagine your daughter was kidnapped and you had a binary choice: (A) You can have the FBI, with all its trained investigators, forensic scientists, labs, subpoena power, police connections, and other resources handle the investigation.  (B)  You can have Debi from Depew, who views herself as an investigative reporter because she podcasts from her mom’s basement, search for your daughter.  I don’t know about you, but I’d choose A.   

 

It's part of fandom to stand by our unfounded opinions, call the GM a moron, and generally spout nonsense. But, if we want to be honest about it, we’re all - to varying degrees - Debi from Depew. 

 

Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks.  Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano.  And, look, talent evaluation is hard.  Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft.  Their hit rate isn’t high.  Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good.  They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge. 

 

I doubt if there’s anyone on this board who knows as much about scouting college players as Tyler Pratt who starts researching and evaluating players at 5:30 am each day and keeps at it until 8pm.  Tyler is an area scout for the Bills Personnel Department which includes 18 dedicated fulltime professionals, not including the admin folks, and is aided by 7 equally dedicated professionals in the Analytics & Football Research Department.  While none of us matches Pratt hours and expertise, we don’t hesitate to act like we’re smarter than Beane and his entire, fantastically resourced organization. 

 

So when someone starts spouting that Beane is an idiot because he drafted a slow wideout, a lineman with short arms, and a guy who never played football before, I just yawn.  Debi from Depew doesn’t interest me.  Beane and his team have spent millions of dollars, studied thousands of hours of tape, conducted hundreds of interviews.  I just hope the Bills FBI (Foot Ball Investigative) unit is better than the FBI units at our rivals.  Time will tell.  But I trust Beane and his team of experts far more than Debi from Depew.

[nedboy7]

Here is a take from CBS discussing the Bills draft.  Starts around 6:45

 

 

 

 

[LeGOATski]

30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think knowing more than the fans is much of a flex tbh

 

That shouldn't even be the minimum job requiremrnt

Why do you see this post from another fan as a flex?

[RangerDave]

36 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Is Debi a hottie? 😎

No, but the one from Dallas is!

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Why do you see this post from another fan as a flex?

I meant the fact that the FO knows more than the fans isn't in support of Beane and McDermott as much as it is in self deprecation if you think about kt

 

Really anything we discuss here can be boiled down to 'the Bills know better' 

[LeGOATski]

36 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You give these guys way too much credit.  

 

Like Billy Beane said in Money Ball " You don't know" 

 

These scouts and GMs are more experienced than us. No doubt. But they are not infallible and who is to know if they are even good at their job. I have to be correct 100% of the time in my job. What is the success rate for these guys? 

 

I mean how many first round absolute busts do we have to list to realize GMs just don't know.  The list of HOF QBs is far far less than the list of first round busts.

 

Most on here were ok with Coleman. Some wanted another guy. What my guess is the vast majority of us wanted was another WR. Because at the end of the day these guys don't know. And two chances to be correct is far better than one chance. 

I think "success rate" in the NFL is represented in win % and championships. At least, that's what it should be in my opinion. We all know about Bill Belichick's various draft picks. He was horrible. Yet, he still got the right pieces in place and was a winner. Beane has drafted much better by comparison, the Bills have been objectively successful since he's been here, but they haven't won. McD is not the same calibre of coach. Not yet anyway.

 

All this to say I couldn't care less about this "success rate" in the draft. Beane is just as good or better than most of the other GMs in the league as far as I'm concerned.

 

What's the equivalent of a draft in your job? What's the equivalent of a championship?

[hondo in seattle]

34 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You give these guys way too much credit.  

 

Like Billy Beane said in Money Ball " You don't know" 

 

These scouts and GMs are more experienced than us. No doubt. But they are not infallible and who is to know if they are even good at their job. I have to be correct 100% of the time in my job. What is the success rate for these guys? 

 

I mean how many first round absolute busts do we have to list to realize GMs just don't know.  The list of HOF QBs is far far less than the list of first round busts.

 

Most on here were ok with Coleman. Some wanted another guy. What my guess is the vast majority of us wanted was another WR. Because at the end of the day these guys don't know. And two chances to be correct is far better than one chance. 

 

Yeah, I agree.  Drafting is such an inexact science that I like accumulating extra swings at the piñata.  It's true that 1st round lottery tickets are better than late round lottery tickets but I like lots of lottery tickets to improve the odds.  I'd love for the analytics guys to come up with a true equivalency and trade chart based on historical hit rates at different places in the draft.

 

If being a good GM was easy, Matt Millen would have succeeded.  In truth, Millen knows more about talent evaluation than 99.99%+ of the human beings on the planet.  Yet, despite being supported by a multi-million dollar scouting organization, he authored one of the worst 7 year stretches in NFL history.  However smart he may have been, he was still worse than the 31 other GMs.

 

I used to walk away from drafts thinking, "This is a good one," or "This is a bad one."  But I never actually had a freaking clue.  Now I turn off the TV, read the online scouting reports, and say, "Well, this is interesting.  Let's see how it works out."  

 

 

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I meant the fact that the FO knows more than the fans isn't in support of Beane and McDermott as much as it is in self deprecation if you think about kt

 

Really anything we discuss here can be boiled down to 'the Bills know better' 

It's not a self-deprecating post. That's an odd label to put on it. It's a reminder to practice humility.

[hondo in seattle]

14 minutes ago, boater said:

Does Debi have big accoutrements?  (hooters)

 

Well, I'm admittedly Debi from Depew too and I don't.  But I suppose some versions do.  

[Sweats]

The only Debbie i know is the one who does Dallas......

[LeGOATski]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Well, I'm admittedly Debi from Depew too and I don't.  But I suppose some versions do.  

I propose a new requirement for posting mock drafts: You first have to submit tasteful nudes.

4 minutes ago, Sweats said:

The only Debbie i know is the one who does Dallas......

I know a ton of Debbie's on this board....but they're Debbie Downers.

[Motorin']

14 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

No, but the one from Dallas is!

 

I wonder if "Debbie Does Depew" has potential in the adult entertainment segment?