The "who I would've drafted instead" re-draft, 2024 edition. Are you smarter than the GM?

[Búfalo Blanco]

So many on this thread who are certain they’d be dynasty building NFL GMs, but still aren’t producing their championship 2024 draft lists. Nope, just commenting on how much this organization sucks..

 

C’mon, let’s see those lists geniuses..

[Chicken Boo]

I'm more than willing to give Keon a shot to prove me wrong, but I would have taken Adonai Mitchell or Troy Franklin over him.

 

We'll see.

[harmonkillebrew]

Not sure of all the picks, but I would have done a few differently.  

When Brian Thomas dropped to the 20s I assumed a patented Beane move up was in the works. I would have tried hard to snag him. Don't know if the Bills did or not. But giving up the 2025 2nd we got for Diggs might have been the price and I would have paid it. 

I also would have tried to package those multiple 5th/6th rounders to move up again into the 4th or 3rd. Reportedly the value from Rds5-7 was not great this year.

I definitely wouldn't have traded DOWN in the 5th like the Bills did.
 

Pick 22: WR Brian Thomas, LSU - Bills trade #28 and 2025 2nd rounder with Eagles for #22

Pick 60: S Cole Bishop, Utah (same as Bills)

3rd Rd:  I did like the KC trade in that it gave us a 3rd, but in this scenario its not there

Pick 128: RB, Isaac Guerendo, Louisville

Pick 141: WR, Anthony Gould, Oregon

.....

 

The DE Javon Soloman and C/G Van Pran_Granger picks were solid and I would have taken them with our other picks if available, but if not I'm sure there was another guy worthy of the 5th/6th round flyer.

Mekhi Wingo, DT was a guy I liked as a backup to Oliver.  He went in the 6th

Zion Logue, DT is a mountain and also could have been worth a 6th round flyer

 

[Buffalo Boy]

9 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Wasn't Boogie drafted off the COVID off season? You know, the one that GMs couldn't go to Pro Days, do as much deep digging as usual? Couldn't get in person with the draftees? 

 

You know, the season that NFL GMs were pretty much relegated to having only slightly more information available to them than fans normally do? And they missed on that pick? Shocker.

Does Beane have Kompromat on some of you?

Geez, the guy isn’t perfect. None of the GMs are. We all watch ridiculous head scratchers every year. 6 QBs in the first 12picks? You think none of those were bad or reaches?

It’s a message board, on a fan site, of course it’s a LAMP. Every single post on this board is, always🤷‍♂️

[transient]

21 hours ago, section122 said:

Isnt this a bit of an unfair exercise where we know who will still be available so we can play around with combinations?

 

10 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

Easy to make picks when you know who’s going to be available later in the draft. For instance: it’s easy to switch to Ladd at 33 when you know Franklin is going to be available in rd 4. 

I still don't like my odds... I think I'm going to wait until the midpoint of the season.

[transient]

1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Not sure of all the picks, but I would have done a few differently.  

When Brian Thomas dropped to the 20s I assumed a patented Beane move up was in the works. I would have tried hard to snag him. Don't know if the Bills did or not. But giving up the 2025 2nd we got for Diggs might have been the price and I would have paid it. 

I also would have tried to package those multiple 5th/6th rounders to move up again into the 4th or 3rd. Reportedly the value from Rds5-7 was not great this year.

I definitely wouldn't have traded DOWN in the 5th like the Bills did.

Sooooo... you don't think other GMs would have known the relative value of the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders that Beane would have been attempting to unload on them in order to move up? Kinda sounded like after the mid 5th round there was little difference between draft picks and UDFA's due to the lack of underclassmen.

[NeverOutNick]

23 hours ago, Logic said:

I'd like to start a new tradition here on Two Bills Drive. 

The premise is simple. I want everyone who's interested in testing their drafting acumen against Brandon Beane's to list who theywould have chosen at each spot, based on who was available in real life, compared to who the Bills actually chose.

I'll list where the Bills picked, who they picked in real life, and then who I would have picked. And I'd like each person who wants to participate to do the same. You can copy and paste the Bills picks and then post your own chosen player next to it (using the link below and picking only players who were available at that pick), unless you'd rather stick with who the Bills picked.

The only rule is that you have to pick where the Bills actually picked. You can't undo a trade-down they made, and you can't invent a new trade-down or trade-up. You have to stick with the real draft slots that the Bills picked from.

We can check back on this in future years and compare our own preferences to who Beane picked. A chance for each of us to put our money where our mouth is.

Here's the listing of everyone picked in the 2024 NFL draft and where, for easy reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_NFL_draft

I'll start:


Bills 2024 draft class:

Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

Pick 60: S Cole Bishop, Utah

Pick 95: DT DeWayne Carter, Duke

Pick 128: RB Ray Davis, Kentucky

Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia

Pick 160: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington

Pick 168: DE Javon Solomon, Troy

Pick 204: T Tylan Grable, UCF

Pick 219: CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State

Pick 221: G Travis Clayton, International Player Pathway


Who I would've picked instead:
 

Pick 33: WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia

Pick 60: S Cole Bishop, Utah (same as Bills)

Pick 95: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon

Pick 128: CB TJ Tampa, Iowa State

Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia (same as Bills)

Pick 160: RB Tyron Tracy Jr, Purdue

Pick 168: DE Javon Soloman, Troy (same as Bills)

Pick 204: OG Christian Mahogany, Boston College

Pick 219: WR Brendan Rice, USC

Pick 221: CB MJ Devonshire, Pitt

This sounds fun. I’ll play later later but honestly I would’ve been fine with this draft if we would’ve taken Franklin or Tez Walker at pick 95 and Brendan Rice with our last pick 221. Get Josh an explosive deep threat and Rice is worth the gamble over a project OT that’s never played football 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Covid time must have been tough for you to witness😒

My honest sympathy 

Wasn’t much fun

[Logic]

22 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

This sounds fun. I’ll play later later but honestly I would’ve been fine with this draft if we would’ve taken Franklin or Tez Walker at pick 95 and Brendan Rice with our last pick 221. Get Josh an explosive deep threat and Rice is worth the gamble over a project OT that’s never played football 

Generally speaking, I agree.

If they had taken a speedy WR in the middle rounds and one more bite at the offensive skill position apple late, I also would've felt much better about things.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Meh I think it's fair as is. The GMs have access to info that we don't. The league thinks Franklin is not a top 100 prospect for whatever reason. GMs probably know that that's how the league feels about him, unless one team is way outside the consensus. So having the true draft board after the fact equalizes things a bit.

 

Good exercise @Logic. Bump the thread in two years.

You think all the GMs know how everyone feels about the other prospects?  Might be true but if this is the case, I would think, in a multi billion dollar industry, that GMs would be a little more discreet considering the drafts are their livelihood.  
 

you guys enjoy, but knowing which players will be available in each round makes this MUCH different exercise than what the GMs are doing.  💯 

[Ralonzo]

Playing the What If Game for the Bills taking Cooper Dejean, and then navigating the draft availables from that point. The first domino affects all the rest ya know... so I'm trying to put myself in the mindset of not knowing what to expect later and draft the guys I would have been looking at there, and retconning the different picks.

 

Pick 33: S Cooper Dejean, Iowa
Pick 60: OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU - I don't reach for receiver here because Coleman/Mitchell would have been the choice here if they made it, but if not we have 95 for someone of the next tier.
Pick 95: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon - The underlying metrics can't be that wrong that he's still falling. Doing this with the idea to grab a physical counterpart later.
Pick 128: CB TJ Tampa, Auburn - Tampa, Hicks and Booker were the value picks sticking out to me, and we have the Safety already. Tampa is plug and play coming from a zone scheme, it's not a desperate need but he's an R2 grade at pick 128 at a premium position, that's nuts. I have other Edge guys in mind for later.
Pick 141: DE Austin Booker, Kansas - I still have later round guys in mind but can't resist the value here.
Pick 160: RB Tyrone Tracy, Purdue - Still need to fill IOL, DT and RB2 positions, there's been a mini-run on RB and just one interesting guy left in this tier. 
Pick 168: DT Gabe Hall, Baylor - Hall is value at this pick (in theory - he went UDFA, but this is what I'd have been thinking) where I'd be looking at guys like him or Carter in this range, but let's assume Carter is gone.
Pick 204: WR Brenden Rice, USC - We were prepared to get Flournoy here, but Rice is younger and longer and almost as fast, and still on the board somehow as a "true" X boundary receiver.
Pick 219: C Kingsley Eguakun, Florida - All the Kingsleys! A good technical center and appeals to Beane's emphasis on leadership.

Pick 221: LB Curtis Jacobs, Penn State - Linebacker U. Good speed and ST utility. Brugler's comp is "poor man's Terrell Bernard" lol.

 

Now it's worth noting that 3 of these picks made it to UDFA (Hall, Eguakun, Jacobs) which I wouldn't have known looking at who was out there.

Edited April 29 by Ralonzo

[Ralonzo]

Here's another what-if - If the Bills had not traded #144 to Chicago for a 2025 R4, who would you have drafted?

 

I was having a small tantrum because I wanted Booker at 128, 141 AND 144 real-time. But knowing who the Bills had already drafted (and excluding Booker), to me the next best choice would have been Jamari Thrash WR Louisville. It'll be interesting to see how he does. A presumed high 4th next year is nice but it's still next year's capital.

[BCAS Baritone]

This one uses a combination of the PFF Big Board and my own evaluation of positional need.  In general, I try to take the guy rated highest on their Big Board if it fills a position of need.  Once all the needs are filled I sprinkle around a bit.  

 

I think the Bills need to come away with the following
WR x 2
RB x 1
C x 1
S x 1
DT x 1
LB x 1

The rest based mostly on BPA

 

Pick 33: CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa - 8 on Big Board, taken 40 by Eagles (they have him listed as CB, but my plan is to put him at FS)
Pick 60: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon - 29 on Big Board, taken 101 by Broncos
Pick 95: LB Payton Willis, NC State - 30 on Big Board, taken 97 by Steelers
Pick 128: DT Brandon Dorlus, Oregon - 65 on Big Board, taken 107 by Falcons
Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia - 100 on Big Board, same as the Bills pick
Pick 160: WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State - 80 on Big Board, taken 174 by Eagles
Pick 168: RB Blake Watson, Memphis - 114 on Big Board, undrafted
Pick 204: WR Brenden Rice, USC - 125 on Big Board, taken 209 by Chargers
Pick 219: EDGE Xavier Thomas, Clemson - 93 on Big Board, undrafted
Pick 221: G Javion Cohen, Miami - 194 on Big Board, undrafted

 

Actual Bills Picks, and where they were on the PFF Big Board
Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State - 41 on PFF
Pick 60: S Cole Bishop, Utah - 132 on PFF
Pick 95: DT DeWayne Carter, Duke - 136 on PFF
Pick 128: RB Ray Davis, Kentucky - 82 on PFF
Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia - 100 on PFF
Pick 160: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington - 261 on PFF
Pick 168: DE Javon Solomon, Troy - 91 on PFF
Pick 204: T Tylan Grable, UCF - Unranked on PFF
Pick 219: CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State - 251 on PFF
Pick 221: G Travis Clayton, International Player Pathway - Unranked on PFF

 

[Andy1]

This is a good thread but I’m breaking the rule and choosing not to trade down from 32. I’d take Legette at 32. I just think he has more tools than Coleman. That also means their 5th round choice might not have been the same but I’d live with that. In 3 years, someone needs to resurrect this thread to see who’s right. 

[Nephilim17]

Won't do anything but the first pick:
 

I waffled between Legette and Thomas. For this exercise I'll go Legette for my pick as there's no trade required, but I think Thomas with a trade-up would've been inspiring as well.

 

I'm more than a little nervous that we didn't get an "explosive" guy in what was heralded as the best WR class in years. I don't think we'll need to wait two years necessarily; I bet by the end of this season we'll get a sense of what receivers are on track to be stars and who will be JAGs or busts. I certainly will root for Coleman, but I'm not super confident. But like almost everyone else, I'm just a bum on a fan board, not a a pro.

[Búfalo Blanco]

BUMP

 

C'mon internet football experts... Show us how much smarter you are than Beane...

[NORWOODS FOOT]

2 - Ladd McConky, WR, Georgia

2 - Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan

3 - Peyton Wilson, LB, North Carolina State

4 - Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville

5 - Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, C, Georgia

5 - Mekhi Wingo, DT, LSU

5 - Javon Solomon, EDGE, Troy

6 - Joshua Karty, K, Stanford

6 - Keaton Bills, G, Utah

7 - Josh Proctor, SAF, Ohio State

[frostbitmic]

32. Coleman - WR - Florida St

60. Bishop - S - Utah

95. Franklin - WR - Oregon

128. Carter - DT - Duke ... If he's not there ... Braelon Allen - RB - Wisconsin

 

To me, getting a 5th round pick instead of a 5th year option on your player isn't worth it, I would've stayed at 32.

 

Because I didn't move out of the first, my draft position in the later rounds would change ... Too lazy to figure out the rest.

Edited April 29 by frostbitmic

[Billl]

On 4/28/2024 at 1:02 PM, NewEra said:

Imagine if we took a slot WR before an X?  But knowing that Franklin was available with our 3rd pick allows you to add yet another slot WR before the X.

Not sure what this means.  It should probably read “imagine if we took an X after taking a slot WR”.  Coleman is more of a slot than an X.  I just took a different slot WR and added an X later in the draft.

Edited April 30 by Billl

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, Billl said:

Not sure what this means.  It should probably read “imagine if we took an X after taking a slot WR”.  Coleman is more of a slot than an X.  I just took a different slot WR and added an X later in the draft.

Put your money where your mouth is.  I’ll bet you up to $500 that mckonkey plays a higher percent of snaps from the slot than Coleman does.