90sBills Posted May 2 Posted May 2 4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: I feel like the Bills went out and got Allen a WR1 in 2020 and then other teams have gone crazy loading up with WRs for their rookie contract QBs. Getting 2 or 3 highly rated WRs for their young QB. It probably helps but what team has actually won a Super Bowl doing this? I don’t think any team loading up at WR for their young QB has won anything yet. Maybe because it’s a pretty new trend. When Mahomes was on his rookie contract KC signed Sammy Watkins and drafted Hardman to go along with Hill and Kelce. Then they won their first Superbowl so I think that qualifies the scenario you laid out. Then they won 2 more without big name receivers so I guess a team can do it either way. Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) 37 minutes ago, BillsVet said: It is a question how a flex TE who averaged 9 yards per catch last year suddenly becomes their deep threat. And none of Samuel, Shakir, or Hollins are that guy really. They don't offer the versatility, they don't separate, and their limited to being short to intermediate guys against Everyone expects these WR's will get production and people will move up to the next position on the depth chart seamlessly. Big ask for guys who've never been covered by the opponent's top DB's. No one said Kincaid would be a deep threat. However your characterization of Shakir is completely wrong. Shakir had 17 explosive plays of 20 yards or more last season on just 45 targets. (Diggs had 19 explosive plays on 160 targets). He averaged 15.6+ yards per catch. I don't think separation and getting open or YAC was an issue for Shakir last season. From week 7 through the playoffs he was on pace for about 850 yards for the season. His number of explosive plays per reception was amongst the highest in the NFL last season. Don't forget we only targeted him 5 times in the first 6 weeks of the season. What would he have done last season if he had been integrated into the offense all season? In addition, Shakir is the about the same size and speed as the departed Diggs. This isn't to say he'll be a good as Diggs, but he doesn't have to be. He just as has to improve on last season. Considering he was only targeted by Josh 45 times in the regular season, what will he do with 80 or 90 targets? Also Kincaid was also on pace for approx. 850 yards from week 7 through the playoffs. He was only targeted 19 times in the first 6 weeks of the season. He was also a rookie last season. What will he do when he is fully integrated into the offense? By the way, unlike Diggs and Davis, Kincaid and Shakir (& Cook) all caught 80%+ of their targets last season. Davis was in the 54% area and Diggs after starting the year around 74% fell off to 62% from week 7 through the playoffs. Sure there are alot of question marks, but at some point you have to stop paying for other teams' castoffs and develop your own targets for Josh. Beane correctly bit the bullet and is sticking with the guys who actually caught their targets last season. I outlined in a different post that we don't need any of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid or Coleman to be stars this season. All we need is for them to be consistent decent football and our WR/TE rooms will as good if not better than last year. PS we didn't have a deep threat last season either. Samuel is a burner but admittedly he's never been used in that role, but then again he's never played with a QB who could get him the ball deep consistently. Edited May 2 by GASabresIUFan 2 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 2 Posted May 2 14 minutes ago, 90sBills said: When Mahomes was on his rookie contract KC signed Sammy Watkins and drafted Hardman to go along with Hill and Kelce. Then they won their first Superbowl so I think that qualifies the scenario you laid out. Then they won 2 more without big name receivers so I guess a team can do it either way. As I said, it helps with development. When Mahomes clearly didn’t need a $30 million WR, they traded him and put the money elsewhere. Quote
90sBills Posted May 2 Posted May 2 Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said: As I said, it helps with development. When Mahomes clearly didn’t need a $30 million WR, they traded him and put the money elsewhere. Not every franchise qb, no matter how talented, can do what Mahomes has done. At the surface I agree with you that since Allen ‘arrived’ he should make any receivers better. That’s necessary because of how much franchise QBs make. However, four years with Diggs, a top 5 receiver most of that time, and Davis, a great 2nd option, and we couldn’t get over the top. I do think 2 top flight receivers is necessary for Allen. Hopefully Kincaid and Coleman can develop into those roles. With the cap situation investing in a premier wr in FA is probably not doable. Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 2 Posted May 2 10 minutes ago, 90sBills said: Not every franchise qb, no matter how talented, can do what Mahomes has done. At the surface I agree with you that since Allen ‘arrived’ he should make any receivers better. That’s necessary because of how much franchise QBs make. However, four years with Diggs, a top 5 receiver most of that time, and Davis, a great 2nd option, and we couldn’t get over the top. I do think 2 top flight receivers is necessary for Allen. Hopefully Kincaid and Coleman can develop into those roles. With the cap situation investing in a premier wr in FA is probably not doable. Getting over the top will require the Bills defense to stop Mahomes at some point. This really is a completely different topic though. Many believe WRs is how you beat Mahomes. I still believe it’s front 4 pressure making at least a couple plays late in games to stop Mahomes. The Bengals beat Mahomes because of the defense. The Bucs beat Mahomes because of the defense. 1 Quote
Warriorspikes51 Posted May 2 Posted May 2 Supposedly Steelers talked to Seattle about Metcalf and they were told a trade would need to happen post June 1 per Ben Allbright. Also rumored KC called about Metcalf during the draft BEANE!? Please???? GET DK METCALF 2 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Supposedly Steelers talked to Seattle about Metcalf and they were told a trade would need to happen post June 1 per Ben Allbright. Also rumored KC called about Metcalf during the draft BEANE!? Please???? GET DK METCALF The betting man in me still doesn’t believe they’re going to rely on a rookie WR that they traded back for playing the X role immediately. Edited May 2 by Buffalo_Stampede 2 Quote
Warriorspikes51 Posted May 2 Posted May 2 On 4/30/2024 at 1:49 PM, Logic said: Revisiting this issue a few days later, it still comes down to this for me: Being one injury away from Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter playing significant starting snaps on offense is just not ideal in any way, shape, or form. Depending on a 20 year old rookie to be productive out of the gate and to be one of your starting three WRs when you play as much 11 personnel as the Bills do is not ideal in any way, shape, or form. They HAVE to get one more legit guy for this WR room. Have to. It's impossible for me to believe that Brandon Beane really thinks a Shaver/Shorter/Hamler/Isabella/Cephus is the answer to this problem. If so, it's hard for me to conclude anything other than that this WR corps has the potential to be the worst since 2019. I have my fingers tightly crossed that there will be a post June 1st move of some kind. I’m holding out hope it’s DK Metcalf with today’s news he could possibly be traded post June 1 according to Ben Allbright 1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: The betting man in me still doesn’t believe they’re going to rely on a rookie WR that they traded back for playing the X role immediately. I want Keon to play a lot, but IMO if we want to contend…we need a top tier type player on the other side of him 23 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Getting over the top will require the Bills defense to stop Mahomes at some point. This really is a completely different topic though. Many believe WRs is how you beat Mahomes. I still believe it’s front 4 pressure making at least a couple plays late in games to stop Mahomes. The Bengals beat Mahomes because of the defense. The Bucs beat Mahomes because of the defense. the problem is, our good to very good defense completely forgets how to play against KC. The DL is taken out of the game 1 Quote
Beck Water Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) On 4/30/2024 at 9:55 AM, MasterStrategist said: Agree with this. Beane definitely sprinkles some "lies", along with truth. Fairly certain, Beane will look to fill the WR4 role after June 1st. Potentially DE as well, I'm concerned we don't gave a DE4 with run stopping/some pass rush. Toohill/Solomon/Kingsley, run game is not a strong suit. Ogbah would be a fit, if price is right. Back to WR, I'm comfortable with Hollins as WR5/ST and if we keep 6, let Hamler/Shorter/Shavers/UDFA compete. WR4 has to be a boundary/down field option. We don't need a star, nor am I expecting that, but a quality depth option. MVS and Chark would fill that role. Coleman is a rookie and will need some rampup time...I'm not confident that Shakir or Samuel take more than 50% snaps on the outside, let alone stay healthy all year. The thought of Hollins having to play significant snaps, due to injury/etc, is a depressing thought. Beane isn't giving his hand away, but he will definitely have $s after June 1 for MVS/Chark type. Give MVS or Chark $6m on a 1 yr deal (but add a void yr to decrease 2024 cap to $3mish). Along with a $3-4m type deal for Ogbah, potentially add a void year to his as well. We will be in better cap position in 2025, so adding a $4-5m deferred dead cap won't break thr bank...especially compared to this yr. I'm with you until you got to $6M on 1 year for MVS. You do realize MVS caught 21 passes for 315 yds last season, playing 58% of the snaps in 16 games and with Patrick Mahomes as his QB? It's like the "Inverse New York New York" - "If you can't make it there, you can't make it anywhere" Chark had more snaps, yards, and receptions, he was behind Thielen, and he had a rookie QB throwing to him, so I see his 35 receptions/525 yds as more excuseable. but....... His last contract, coming off 30 receptions for 502 yds, was 1 yr/$5M fully guaranteed, in part because he missed 6 games with an ankle injury so might have done more if he stayed healthy. Well, he "stayed healthy" but didn't do too much more in Carolina, so I don't know if he's washed, or it was playing with a rookie, or ?? I don't think he's a $6M guy to Beane. 1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: As I said, it helps with development. When Mahomes clearly didn’t need a $30 million WR, they traded him and put the money elsewhere. I think a difference is that through it all, Mahomes had his security blanket receiver TE Travis Kelce 45 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Getting over the top will require the Bills defense to stop Mahomes at some point. This really is a completely different topic though. Many believe WRs is how you beat Mahomes. I still believe it’s front 4 pressure making at least a couple plays late in games to stop Mahomes. The Bengals beat Mahomes because of the defense. The Bucs beat Mahomes because of the defense. OK, so what is the difference between regular season games where our D gets stops against Mahomes, vs playoffs? Looking at the list of starters in the box score might possibly provide a clue. Edited May 2 by Beck Water Quote
BillsVet Posted May 2 Posted May 2 1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: You’re worried about a deep threat? We’ve been calling for a deep threat since 2021. That’s nothing new. It’s also not a strength of Josh Allen. I’ve been hoping we added a legit speed guy for years. That's just not a priority it seems, but not a new problem. Gabe Davis has been our deep threat. But teams play us like we have a deep threat due to Allen at any moment could launch it to anyone on the field. We get 2 high looks as much as anyone already, don’t even need the true deep threat. No one is rationalizing. I was pretty vocal about trading Diggs this year. I also was the first to mention Curtis Samuel as a target. What I didn’t expect was the Bills to lack a sense of urgency in finding the next Diggs. Trading back and taking just 1 WR wasn’t a goal of mine. So the outcome is not what I expected. As for Kincaid he has a lot more ability than how they used him most of the year. We started seeing it late last year and into the playoffs. His depth of target increased. He’s going to explode next year. There are major questions on what Samuel and Shakir can handle. It looks like we’ll find out. Both will be getting a major opportunity they haven’t had. One runs 4.31 and the other 4.43. So they are faster than WRs we’ve had. Coleman also a complete unknown. As of now we’re going to find out pretty early what he’s capable of. What is the impact of a Diggs-less, offense? That is the key question almost no one is considering. He was their best and most versatile receiver that defenses keyed on. Sure, down the stretch he wasn't the biggest factor, but now that he's gone, it's not just replacing his production. I laugh at people who assume that minus Diggs' targets, they'll just be equally spread among those remaining without any drop in production. Every one of their receivers AND Josh now doesn't have the benefit of Diggs drawing the opponents best corner. C I'm not on this board to massage fan feelings about the team. This years' offense given their current skill types will be slower, closer to the LOS, and more predictable. They were trending that way at the end of last season trying to balance the run with the pass. Josh only threw for more than 300 yards 2x out of the 9 games Brady was OC and one of those was the OT loss to Philadelphia. And when they don't have the solid pass offense, it'll bleed over into the run eventually. 1 Quote
Beck Water Posted May 2 Posted May 2 51 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Supposedly Steelers talked to Seattle about Metcalf and they were told a trade would need to happen post June 1 per Ben Allbright. Also rumored KC called about Metcalf during the draft BEANE!? Please???? GET DK METCALF I don't think he's listening to you. Didn't you want him to bring you Odunze? Quote
Beck Water Posted May 2 Posted May 2 On 4/30/2024 at 12:40 PM, GASabresIUFan said: If you are a quality FA are you coming here to be the 6th and possibly the 7th receiving option behind Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, Coleman, Cook and possibly Knox? I wouldn’t. If you are Beane, are you really going to invest a large amount of your limited cap space on a guy who would enter camp at the 6th or 7th receiving option after you invested in Hollins, plus you have a rookie draft pick in Shorter plus 2 guys with NFL experience in Cephus and Hamler already on your roster? I think it’s much more likely that Beane spends his cap on upgrading S. Adding someone like Simmons would have much more impact on the team than adding a 6th/7th receiving option Given what Beane did last season with Douglas and our extra 2nd and 4th in 2025, I’d expect Beane to acquire a quality receiver in trade if one of top 3 wide receivers went down with a long-term injury then spending money on a guy now and not really play him. You make an excellent point, but part of being a 'quality' NFL WR or CB is having that swagger, that self confidence. I think a quality FA WR looks at our roster and goes - "Huh. Rookie who ran a 4.6 40 and can't separate. Two 600 yd slot guys. Couple tight ends, I'm a receiver, don't compare me to a TE, that's offensive (channeling Beas there). Career journeyman ST guy. Imma walk to the head of that class, no problem!" I'm not saying that to diss off Coleman Curtis Samuel Hollins Kincaid or Knox. I think they're all capable of more if Brady designs a good offense. I'm just saying if I were a quality FA WR I would not look at myself as coming here to be #6. Even Mack Hollins, career journeyman, was quoted as saying last year “I mean, the No. 1 spot is up and I’ll go for it,” Hollins said after a recent practice. “Drake is my roommate. He gets no free days. Every spot in my mind and every receiver’s mind is up for grabs. Just because he got a nice signing bonus, there’s no free lunches around here. No free lunches.” Do you think Diggs moved to Houston saying "oh, Nico Collins, 108 targets, 1297 yards, I don't know how I'll get my bag behind him". Hell no. Diggs flew down there saying "you the little dog, now the Big Dog come." He might be mistaken, but that's what's in his head, in any quality WR head. Quote
Aurelius Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) Simple question that answers it all. Where does our #1, #2 and # 3 WR rank amongst NFL rankings for WR’s? It’s an important question. We run a majority passing offense with one of the best QB’s in the league, and formerly one the better offenses. Extrapolate that out and the answer is simple. Edited May 2 by Aurelius Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Supposedly Steelers talked to Seattle about Metcalf and they were told a trade would need to happen post June 1 per Ben Allbright. Also rumored KC called about Metcalf during the draft BEANE!? Please???? GET DK METCALF I would hope that Beane would be all over DK Metcalf if he were available in June. But I think they might be bought into a "rebuild" for 2025 mode and cling to all of their draft capital. I remember entering the 2007 offseason there was real hype building with media talking heads and Bills fans about how the Bills were putting together a young team that could soon challenge the Patriots. Fans were really in on Dick Jauron and drinking he and Marv's Kool aid. It was seen as OK that they let Nate Clements leave in UFA without using the franchise tag because they were getting their guys and getting younger. Then the Patriots traded a 4th round pick for Randy Moss........and proceeded to create MASSIVE distance between them and the Bills. They literally scored 8 straight TD's in the game at Buffalo that season as they went f*cking 16-0 with the highest scoring offense in NFL history. Moss tore Jauron's asssup for 3 years until he was rightfully sh!tcanned. The moral of the story is that only a fool would expect that the championship team that you have been chasing will get complacent or be conservative and get themselves caught. No team has won 3 straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs KNOW that it will be harder to get this 3rd one and they may well just go to excess to create separation between them and opponents. The Bills should be in on a difference maker like Metcalf. He's not going to bring a 1st round return............so don't NOT get DK Metcalf just so you can get a shot on next years Cole Bishop. Edited May 2 by BADOLBILZ 1 1 Quote
dgrochester55 Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) I do not think that Buffalo is done. Having a true #1 seems to be off the table for now unless something crazy happens with Deebo or Metcalf, but the offense can still be potent if there are six or seven steady targets to spread the ball around to. As of now, we have Shakir, Coleman, Samuel, and a whole bunch of ifs, ands and buts at WR. Even with those three, we are asking them to play a larger role than they have been accustomed to. It helps that we have Kincaid and Knox, but I would hope to see one more veteran WR in the mix. My guess is that this will happen after June 1st. Out of the rest, we have Andy Isabella, KJ Hamler, Justin Shorter, Mack Hollins, Quintez Cephus, Tyrell Shavers, Bryan Thompson, Xavier Johnson and Lawrence Keys. Maybe one or two of those emerge, but I am not comfortable counting on that. Out of that group, Hollins likely makes it in a Special teams Andre Roberts type role and Shorter will get a good look. After that. it is up in the air. I would love to see Hamler or Cephus play to their potential, but more likely than not, they are camp fodder. Isabella is likely a practice squad member again. The others are long shots IMO. All we can do at this point is see how things play out between now and week 1. Edited May 2 by dgrochester55 Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: ding, ding, ding. We have a winner! This is what I wrote in the leading receiver thread! Quote 1) Coleman - Davis, as a rookie was in the WR 3/4 role behind Beasley and Diggs, sharing PT with John Brown. He had 35 catches for 599 yards and 7 TDs. Imho, for Coleman, those numbers the minimum we should expect. I’m also not expecting 900 yards + from Coleman given the numerous other targets. Prediction, 42 catches for 700 yards and 8 TDs. 2) Samuel - Outside his breakout year in Carolina, Samuel has been worth about 650 yards on 60 catches with 4 TDs. I can see those numbers going up some, But, I’d be happy with that level of production. 3) Shakir - He had 611 yards on only 39 catches. He spent most of last year being the 3rd option and not even that until week 7. What’s he going to do when he is fully part of the offense? From week 7 through the playoffs, Shakir was on pace for an 850 yard season. I suspect Brady will give him twice as many targets this season (thus around 90) and be rewarded with 70 catches for around 1000 yards and at least 6 TDs. 4) Kincaid - Like Shakir he blossomed after week 6. He was also on a pace for about 850 yards from week 7 through the playoffs. I’m expecting further improvement this season. I think we’ll see 90 catches on 115 targets for 950 yards and 6 TDs The difference is I think they group will have more TDs than 19. Beane is playing moneyball with the receiving group and it's long overdue. There still seems to be some belief here that Beane is going to use his June 1 cap from White on an experienced receiver despite his repeated that he is going young and cheaper. SOrry folks but his big FA splurge was Samuel. Unless someone gets hurt or Coleman proves terrible in camp, I doubt Beane invests any more cap at WR. Edited May 2 by GASabresIUFan Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 2 Posted May 2 (edited) 4 hours ago, BillsVet said: What is the impact of a Diggs-less, offense? That is the key question almost no one is considering. He was their best and most versatile receiver that defenses keyed on. Sure, down the stretch he wasn't the biggest factor, but now that he's gone, it's not just replacing his production. I laugh at people who assume that minus Diggs' targets, they'll just be equally spread among those remaining without any drop in production. Every one of their receivers AND Josh now doesn't have the benefit of Diggs drawing the opponents best corner. C I'm not on this board to massage fan feelings about the team. This years' offense given their current skill types will be slower, closer to the LOS, and more predictable. They were trending that way at the end of last season trying to balance the run with the pass. Josh only threw for more than 300 yards 2x out of the 9 games Brady was OC and one of those was the OT loss to Philadelphia. And when they don't have the solid pass offense, it'll bleed over into the run eventually. Doesn’t change too much if Kincaid becomes the number 1 target. There aren’t many CBs now a days that travel. The league is a lot of zone, over 60% for every team, most around 70% zone. You need WRs that understand zone and can find open spaces. It will be interesting to see how Brady runs the offense without Diggs. I actually think there is a benefit to having 4 or 5 guys on the field that could all be the number 1 read on any given play. But it will be interesting to see who the defense decides to put their top CB on. Edited May 2 by Buffalo_Stampede Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted May 2 Posted May 2 8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: So we had agreed that the Bills passing game was not good enough in 2023 and running the ball 9.2 times per game was putting hard miles on Josh Allen........and now we are hoping they get back to "not good enough". And ignoring the fact that the NFL is a matchup league. "Yeah, we don't need Ted Washington in the middle........we can just stop the run with numbers!" That lasted about 2 quarters into game one of the Gregg Williams regime before it became obvious that they had made a serious mistake in judgement going into the season with that "aggregate" mindset in a matchup league. Who in this re-aligned Bills receiving corps is beating a good CB1? I saw someone photoshop Sauce Gardner into that pic of Keon Coleman making the one-handed grab against Syracuse. Yeah, that ain't happening in real life. That means the defense can then double whoever the Bills view as WR1. But they won't need to because the Bills don't have one of those. You aren't beating the defense with numbers........it's still 11 on 11. You gotta' win matchups. 1 1 1 Quote
Murdox Posted May 2 Posted May 2 Well, I know one thing. It won't be fun playing the Bills in the next Madden installment. Our WRs are the worst on paper in the entire NFL (not that I necessarily agree). The kids will have to have Allen chuck a lot of balls to Kincaid. LOL Quote
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