Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same

[pennstate10]

7 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Yeah and I just can't see Allen putting up with it.  Allen has an out after 2025.

??  How does Allen have an out after 2025??

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Yeah and I just can't see Allen putting up with it.  Allen has an out after 2025.

 

Huh?  Allen is under contract through 2028

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/25102/josh-allen

 

Perhaps you are misunderstanding the "potential out" phrase in Spotrac?  It indicates the point where the team would take less dead cap hit to trade or cut the player than the cap hit to keep him on the roster.  But it's not the player's choice.

[BullBuchanan]

9 hours ago, KentuckyBillsFan said:

McDermott has clearly run his course in Buffalo. It’s obvious to everyone except Pegula. We’re just going to continue to waste prime Josh Allen

I mean, I don't disagree, but nothing that happened this week was about him. It's 100% Beane's call right or wrong.

[Awwufelloff]

Agree with your take, this is a rebuilding/reset year for cap reasons. Next year we likely go all in again. 

[TheWeatherMan]

8 hours ago, Roundybout said:

I guess my thing is that Josh’s most successful season (2020) was with Cole Beasley playing at his best. We had the chance to duplicate that with McConkey and we didn’t do it. 

McConkey can play inside and out, Beasley was a pure slot. 

8 hours ago, djp14150 said:

OP wanted thrm to sell all picks and get in top 20 and get one of those 3 top WRs thinking thst is the missing piece

 

this teams need to add depth…drafting safety and interior off/ def line isn’t sexy enough.

 

folks on here do not understand therr is a salary cap….

 

look across the league, the teams that have stayed good for a long time rely on youth/ picks because you need this picks to balance out the club salary structure.

This is true, but they also hit on their high end picks like the Eagles.  The eagles doubled up on CB and WR because they were the BPA.  Beane drafts for need, and that’s not a recipe for success IMO. 

[Danger Mouse]

I really enjoyed reading the OP.

 

I differ a little in that I think the future health of franchise comes first. Our superbowl-ready team failed to reach the superbowl three times. Now we are in transition again. That's annoying but it's the fact.  Josh is going to have to work with what he's got (though he'll get one more WR i'm sure). I get why we'd want to back him more this year - we are so desperate for that SB - but I can see why were not doing it too. ***** or bust strategies aren't everyone's idea of fun.

 

Prime Josh Allen has a harder job to do this year, hopefully he's even more prime than we ever knew.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

11 hours ago, Logic said:

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Daniel Jeremiah said it best saying it was a rock solid draft  and I was actually using the same phrase threw out the draft. 

[TPS]

11 hours ago, Logic said:

Coleman, Shakir, Samuel is about as deep as this WR corps goes. And that's assuming Coleman winds up being a good pro. Hollins a replacement level guy. Shorter has shown nothing on offense in this league. 

Yes, we can HOPE that Shorter or Hamler or Shavers develop into viable players, but hope is not a strategy. 

So that's three guys. That's a three-deep WR corps. That is....not very encouraging.

One nit to pick.  Hamler is not a "hope he develops" guy.  His issue is staying healthy.  4.3 speed, with big play capability. He had significant playing time in his first year with the Broncos, then injury issues after that. 

 

[KentuckyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I mean, I don't disagree, but nothing that happened this week was about him. It's 100% Beane's call right or wrong.

I don’t disagree but I also think McDermott has a lot of influence on personnel decisions. That doesn’t absolve Beane but if I had to keep one of them it would be Beane, although my preference would be a clean slate. 

[oldmanfan]

9 hours ago, jkeerie said:

Logic...I appreciate your feelings on this.  In truth, I was disappointed in this year's draft, but mainly because of who we drafted with our last 3 picks and because we only drafted one receiver.

1.  Keon Coleman was not my first choice of receiver, but in truth, outside of the 40 time, Keon Coleman is the closest to the top 4 receivers in this draft.  Had he run a fast 40 at the combine, he would have been a top 10 pick.  Coleman doesn't need separation.  Any ball thrown near him, he will come down with .  He won't be man-handled by defensive backs (think Jets and Chiefs).   When I think of how many times Bills receivers did NOT come down with contested balls, I understand why the Bills focused on a player of Coleman's stature and ability.  So...don't be so quick to dismiss Coleman.

 

2.  Cole Bishop was the safety I expected the Bills to draft and we did.  He will be solid, providing the abilities and leadership and smarts we're used to.

 

3.  Carter...just as you said.  He'll be a solid rotational DT and when I heard his presser, he reminded me so much of Lorenzo Alexander.  He'll be a strong leader on this team.

 

4.  Ray Davis.  We knew we were going to draft a RB.  Daniel Jermiah loved the pick, saying he was his 3rd best receiver in the draft.  Great running the football and out of the backfield.  I nice compliment to Cook.

 

5.  Sedrick VP.  We needed a center and we got a good one with a lot of experience in Sedrick.  The competition he has faced has been among the best, so I expect him to work his way into a starting role sooner rather than later.

 

5.  Ulofoshio, LB.  I expected the Bills to draft a LB at some point given that we were on our 4th string by the playoffs.  In truth, I don't know much about EU, but the ESPN and NFL pundits seemed to like the pick, saying he was one of the most impactful LBs in the draft.  So...we'll see.  I won't dismiss him just because I am unfamiliar.

 

5.  Javon Solomon.  We needed an Edge and got a good one according to the ESPN and NFL Network guys.  I think he may work his way into the rotation.  I'm optimistic.

 

The remaining picks are where my disappointment stems from.  I would have preferred a second WR especially since the Bills spent so much time evaluating WRs.

 

6.  Tylan Grable.  I expected the Bills to draft an OT.  It's an annual tradition with them.  According to Beane, they liked his traits and sent Kromer down to work him out and evaluate him.  So they see the potential.  He's played both on the left and right side at tackle as well as right guard.  Since VanDemark does not seem to play well on the right side, they likely want to groom another prospect as backup.  

 

6.  Daquan Hardy, CB.  See above.  It's an annual tradition.  Being a Penn State alum and watching a lot of PSU football, I've been critical of their corners.  In years past, if they weren't giving up big plays, they were committing PI.  They were better in 2023.  He'll be good on ST and if he can develop into a backup nickel, I'm good.

 

7.  Travis Clayton.  He has potential albeit he is a project.  However, the upside is the roster exemption for international players.  The Bills can keep 17 on the practice squad as opposed to just 16.  

 

In this draft, the Bills filled a lot of needs.  The veterans they brought in were only signed to one year deals for the most part, so if these rookies can develop there will be spots for them.     So I'm not so down on this draft based on what I've watched throughout the college season.  I'm hoping KJ Hamler can stay healthy and truly live up to the potential he displayed at Penn State and become that deep threat the Bills could use.  He didn't show much at Denver due to health and QB play.  We'll see what UDFA's are brought in as well, and though Beane did say there's no trade in the works for a veteran, he did not rule out bringing in veteran help at the WR position. 

 

My two cents. 

 

 

Let me just comment on your desire for drafting a second WR in the later rounds, because that seems to be a criticism many have made.  I would argue we already had done that on the current roster.  We have Shorter from last year who never got a real chance due to injury.  We have Hamler who could be a 4th guy if he can get past injury.  Hollins and  Isabella.  We have a number of guys already in the roster who fit the third round level pick.  
 

The Bills have the luxury that we as fans don’t have in that they can watch a guy like Shorter in practice, the film and weight rooms, etc.  I think that’s what Beane meant when he said they were OK with the WR room.

 

I’m reminded this time last year when Edmunds had left and there was panic in the Mafia.  Beane said that they felt they were OK with what they had, and he was right.  Bernard stepped in and had a great year.  I suspect that the 4th WR is sitting on the roster right now.  Not that I would argue with getting someone like a Sutton or OBJ once Tre’s cap stuff comes off the books.  But I’ve grown to believe Beane when he says stuff, and he’s said not to expect a trade anytime soon.

[Luka]

The disrespect to Shorter in this thread is something else. He was Richardson's go to target at Florida. Shakir-like in his ability to convert big 3rd downs. Big frame guy with 4.5 speed, not unlike Coleman. Shorter was the #1 receiver coming out of high school. His big question mark is can he stay healthy. Played through or missed time with injuries every season in college. Wouldn't count on him just being a throw away prospect. 

 

Coleman wasn't my preference at receiver but all reports say he was Josh's choice at receiver so nothing else really needs to be said about the pick. I'm sure most people have seen the graphic of his 40 time paired with all of his other drill times, in which he was at the top of the charts in most of them. Not everyone is a sprinter. I'd rather have the guy that's quick out of his break at the top of a route than a guy who's quick out of the blocks.

 

It's also something to note, all the small fast guys in Buffalo haven't worked out. McKenzie was the most notable and he was a gadget guy. 

 

Coleman, Davis and Pran-Granger all have a physicality to their game and I think that was the underlying theme of this draft on offense. Get tougher. Get more physical. Your star QB can't be the only guy willing to hurdle or stiff arm a guy for a first down. 

 

 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

I think Coleman (X stater) and Davis (backup) both play a lot on offense - thus giving Allen a couple of new weapons to use. I could also see Van Pan starting by the middle of the season. That's potentially 3 offensive rookies from this draft contributing quite a bit. Not bad for picking at the end of each round. 

 

Coleman, IMO, was a swing for the fences pick. There were safer options there, but he had the highest ceiling of all remaining receivers. 

[jkeerie]

3 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

McConkey can play inside and out, Beasley was a pure slot. 

This is true, but they also hit on their high end picks like the Eagles.  The eagles doubled up on CB and WR because they were the BPA.  Beane drafts for need, and that’s not a recipe for success IMO. 

Philly actually had needs at CB and WR.  Additionally BPA and value is determined by a team's draft board not what flashes across a TV screen.  As it turns out, the Bills were able to draft 7 of Daniel Jeremiah's top 150 with their first 7 selections.  They balanced their need with the value on the draft board which is what GMs generally do.  Scheme fits also play a huge role in how teams rank players.

[Bangarang]

13 hours ago, MJS said:

That's what I'm doing. I'm discussing people's lack of knowledge and speculating that they know nothing about these players.

 

Logic had one of the best typing gauntlet times among other posters here. His reply speed is faster than it looks. 

[jkeerie]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER DOT COM said:

I think Coleman (X stater) and Davis (backup) both play a lot on offense - thus giving Allen a couple of new weapons to use. I could also see Van Pan starting by the middle of the season. That's potentially 3 offensive rookies from this draft contributing quite a bit. Not bad for picking at the end of each round. 

 

Coleman, IMO, was a swing for the fences pick. There were safer options there, but he had the highest ceiling of all remaining receivers. 

If Coleman's 40 time would have been better, he would have been ranked right with the top guys.  Those safer options also are already on the Bills.  Coleman gives them a receiver they don't already have in their WR room.

[SirAndrew]

I still can’t believe how little our stockpile of fifth picks has been discussed. It’s probably just me, but I found it bizarre. We collected picks in a manner that indicated a likely big trade. Instead, we draft a bunch of defensive players in the fifth round. I’m not sure how this was the best use of wheeling and dealing in the draft. This was a drought era type draft, and I think we’ll pay for years to come. At least we got our high motor lunch pail safety for Tyreek Hill to run past. 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

14 hours ago, appoo said:

What the hell is the this alternate to Keon Coleman that turns this offense into what ever it y'all imagine it's gonna be? Like what am I missing here

Honestly, start planning years earlier to raise the probability of having emerging playmakers around Allen. 
 

Next best, take multiple cracks at playmakers in this year’s draft. 
 

Next best, take one guy and hope to beat the odds.

 

Last option, do nothing. 
 

McBeane did one step up from nothing.

 

Nice guys. Decent professionals. 
 

But they are squandering our franchise QB and Super Bowl chances. It’s a bummer.

[Fender]

13 hours ago, Low Positive said:

The Bills spent their first pick in the draft on a WR and let Josh Allen have a say in the choice. How would that make him frustrated? I think he got tired of the drops and wanted a guy with good hands. I would have taken Mitchell, but then again I don’t have to coach or play with the guy.

 

This has been a process for me. Before the season ended, I wanted Coleman or Leggett because I wanted a big guy who catches almost the balls thrown his way. Then I started listening to you people, and I became a big Franklin guy. I was the all hyped for Worthy after the combine, but then I reconsidered. He almost certainly worked with track coaches for a month to get that time. It’s all in the start. I think it’s very telling that he declined doing any other drills. That’s because he didn’t train for them. When you watch him play, he’s fast but not Tyreek fast and he drops balls. So then, I was and still am a Ladd guy. But I guess I can’t complain because if you had told me back in January that the Bills would have drafted Coleman I would have been very happy. So I choose to be hopeful. At the very least he should go a long way in solving the red zone problems.

The Coleman hate is ridiculous but folks let their screens think for them so as soon as ESPN/social media decided trading with KC and them getting Worthy was a huge mistake they did too. 
 

This was an excellent draft top to bottom. Coleman, Bishop, Davis, and SVP will all play and play a lot over the next few years.
 

I’ve been a Bills fan since 1991 even tho I’ve spent my entire life living in Ga. Love my Bills but can’t stand our message board fans. Every year I come here to check the pulse during/after the draft and every year it’s the same nonsense.
 

In a perfect world we land another WR (Franklin later as he continued to fall would’ve been my pick) but we had A LOT of needs  

[Chaos]

15 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

This is a fair take but moderate imo

 

I think it would be fair to say this draft+offseason gets us further from a super bowl

 

And for that imo it's a failure

The fault does not lie in this off-season or draft.  The fault lies in last seasons off season and draft. The assessment last last year that the oft injured and aged players on the team had it in them to make a Super Bowl run with Ken Dorsey at the offensive helm and with a combined HC/DC in one person was simply a poor assessment. This reset year should have been last year. if it had been the scrap pile of old players everyone is happy to see gone now, may have held some value. 
 

This years moves are the consequences of last year’s decisions. 

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, Fender said:

The Coleman hate is ridiculous but folks let their screens think for them so as soon as ESPN/social media decided trading with KC and them getting Worthy was a huge mistake they did too. 
 

This was an excellent draft top to bottom. Coleman, Bishop, Davis, and SVP will all play and play a lot over the next few years.
 

I’ve been a Bills fan since 1991 even tho I’ve spent my entire life living in Ga. Love my Bills but can’t stand our message board fans. Every year I come here to check the pulse during/after the draft and every year it’s the same nonsense.
 

In a perfect world we land another WR (Franklin later as he continued to fall would’ve been my pick) but we had A LOT of needs  

It’s because people spend too much time “scouting” before the draft and, unlike actual NFL GMs, get attached to specific players. As I noted, Coleman was on the list of guys that we discussed back when this process started. We just chose differently in our collective mocks so it feels like a mistake. It’s really just online groupthink. But my favorite are the guys who claim that Josh Allen is about to demand a trade because we don’t give him enough weapons. He, for two years in a row, has had input into the selection of two pass catchers that were choosen with the Bills first pick. If it doesn’t  work out it’s at least partially his fault. Also, good on ya for staying aboard after that early 90’s bandwagon crashed into a brick wall.