Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same

[Mat68]

On 4/27/2024 at 6:07 PM, Logic said:

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Just say they didnt pick the guys you wanted.  They didnt trade up for Udunze.  Btw if you read Udunze weaknesses they are identical to Coleman.  Buffalo found multiple day 1 contributors and future projected starters.  That at its core is a success.  Cook, Kincaid and Coleman are premium picks in consecutive drafts.   

[OldTimer1960]

7 hours ago, Ga boy said:

Coleman’s upside is very interesting.  If he can use his twitchy moves like Jefferson he’ll be a difference maker.  He will be coached up on route timing.  On contested catches he’ll win most.  If JA17 can make Zay Jones look good, Keon will make us forget about Diggs.  I think he’ll be ROTY.  

I would not call Coleman “twitchy”, I would call him a smooth moving athlete who can contort his body to adjust to off target throws.  He is an overall very good to excellent athlete, but instant quickness and lateral agility are not his calling card - at least to my eyes.  He will have to really improve his route running, but I don’t expect him to become an elite route runner at his size.  I think expecting him to be a difference maker or true go-to guy is pretty optimistic.  If he becomes a solid WR2 and good red-zone threat I think that is a win.  With an extra 2nd round pick and perhaps an earlier draft position, they might be in shape to get a difference making WR next year.

 

 I’m certainly not qualified to state my opinion as fact - it is just what I see when I watch him.  I am rooting for him to show me to be very wrong.

[Ga boy]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I would not call Coleman “twitchy”, I would call him a smooth moving athlete who can contort his body to adjust to off target throws.  He is an overall very good to excellent athlete, but instant quickness and lateral agility are not his calling card - at least to my eyes.  He will have to really improve his route running, but I don’t expect him to become an elite route runner at his size.  I think expecting him to be a difference maker or true go-to guy is pretty optimistic.  If he becomes a solid WR2 and good red-zone threat I think that is a win.  With an extra 2nd round pick and perhaps an earlier draft position, they might be in shape to get a difference making WR next year.

 

 I’m certainly not qualified to state my opinion as fact - it is just what I see when I watch him.  I am rooting for him to show me to be very wrong.

You probably right about twitchy.  I might add I think he has a lot of dawg.

 

[Big Turk]

On 4/27/2024 at 6:14 PM, GoBills808 said:

This is a fair take but moderate imo

 

I think it would be fair to say this draft+offseason gets us further from a super bowl

 

And for that imo it's a failure

 

Until we see how they fit together as a team, I withhold judgement.

 

The Bills often are a "sum is greater than their parts" team and the players they selected are all solid players who are leaders and hard workers that will seemingly fit in and form the young core of the team moving forward.

 

I think people will have a dramatically different opinion in 3 years, which is the amount of time required to have any real opinion that matters.

[Luka]

On 5/9/2024 at 5:19 AM, Ayjent said:

He wasn’t Richardson’s go to guy. They really had WR by committee in terms of production and Richardson looked for Pearsall if anyone when they needed a first, but he wasn’t very effective at finding anyone when he needed to.  Richardson is a physical unicorn like Josh but injury prone and super inaccurate and erratic in the intermediate passing game.  Shorter had a decent year with Richardson at QB with a great yds/reception, but it’s really hard to evaluate a WR with a QB that struggled passing for long stretches and looked like a really bad QB when things weren’t clicking as it steamrolled. I get why the colts were enamored with AR.  He was pure excitement at times, but never consistently good. 
 

Shorter is someone I hoped the Bills would pick up and they did.  He has elite traits, but 2022 was the closest he came to putting it together and I’m hoping he provides an unexpected boost to what isn’t the most inspiring WR group. 

 

Considering I am a Gators fan and haven't missed a game since 04, I'll stick with my assessment of Shorter. Pearsall had a big season with Mertz at QB last season but had 33 catches in 2022. Shorter started 9 games and had 4 less receptions. More often than not, he was making the big play when needed that season. 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Luka said:

 

Considering I am a Gators fan and haven't missed a game since 04, I'll stick with my assessment of Shorter. Pearsall had a big season with Mertz at QB last season but had 33 catches in 2022. Shorter started 9 games and had 4 less receptions. More often than not, he was making the big play when needed that season. 

I've been discounting Shorter as unlikely to be a significant add. I hope you're right.

[Ayjent]

11 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I've been discounting Shorter as unlikely to be a significant add. I hope you're right.

 

12 hours ago, Luka said:

 

Considering I am a Gators fan and haven't missed a game since 04, I'll stick with my assessment of Shorter. Pearsall had a big season with Mertz at QB last season but had 33 catches in 2022. Shorter started 9 games and had 4 less receptions. More often than not, he was making the big play when needed that season. 

Also a Gator fan and I haven’t missed any games since well before that, even though it’s been a tough stretch with few bright spots since the last championship season.  Not sure Billy ball is going to get it done, beyond the mediocrity we’ve seen. With respect to Shorter and Pearsall, I get what you’re saying, but I think it’s safe to say there wasn’t a real go to guy that season because that would’ve meant that they actually had a competent, consistent passing game that year which is very debatable.  I was so wanting Richardson to get his chance and was super excited after the Utah game where he was awesome, but then it was just a roller coaster of uneven play despite having a lot of talent on offense.  There were big plays from both Pearsall and Shorter, but I always felt Pearsall was the more targeted player when they needed a play for a first down. I haven’t looked it up.  Maybe the stats bear that out or don’t, but just watching the games it felt that way in the biggest moments.