Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same

[GunnerBill]

On 4/29/2024 at 6:03 PM, Bill from NYC said:

If we can, let's put everything aside and let only logic be our guide for the sake of this conversation....

 

1) If Carter is to be a  "leader" on the Bills, please tell me who he will lead and when.

 

2) What do you think Josh Allen would have been more pleased to have,  a 6'2" defensive tackle from Duke who might be a "leader" in the future (if he is still with the team) or another receiver with speed? 

 

3) In round two (after trading down), McDermott selected a wide receiver who is lisated as running a 4.62 40. In fact, on this linked site he had the worst 40 time of any listed wideout. Does this even concern you a little bit? https://gbnreport.com/2024-wr-ranking/ Now, if we play a 12 package we will have two TEs and a comparatively slow wide receiver, this for a QB with a cannon. Call me crazy but I don't like this very much.

 

Btw, I re-read my post to you and consider it to be too harsh. I am sorry, and I do pray for more patience. Be well.

 

 

 

 

McDermott didn't draft anybody. Beane did.

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

McDermott didn't draft anybody. Beane did.

Do you think they talk about it beforehand ?

 

They are an office apart … and the draft is pretty important 

Edited May 7 by Aussie Joe

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Do you think they talk about it beforehand ?

 

They are an office apart … and the draft is pretty important 

 

Yes. But Brandon Beane is in charge of personnel. He makes the calls. If we want to talk about the draft McDermott did run we found Tre White (all pro), Dion Dawkins (7 year starter) and Matt Milano (all pro). The drafts since then have been run by Brandon Beane and for good - and there has been a fair amount of good - and ill he is responsible for the selections.

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. But Brandon Beane is in charge of personnel. He makes the calls. If we want to talk about the draft McDermott did run we found Tre White (all pro), Dion Dawkins (7 year starter) and Matt Milano (all pro). The drafts since then have been run by Brandon Beane and for good - and there has been a fair amount of good - and ill he is responsible for the selections.

I have little doubt that McDermott has not at least “ticked the box” on the picks …particularly the first two days ..Beane isn’t taking a guy if McDernott doesn’t want him ..

 

In relation to this year .. Bishop and Carter … such McDernott guys … 

 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I have little doubt that McDermott has not at least “ticked the box” on the picks …particularly the first two days ..Beane isn’t taking a guy if McDernott doesn’t want him ..

 

In relation to this year .. Bishop and Carter … such McDernott guys … 

 

 

Of course he doesn't take guys the Head Coach doesn't want. They are very tight with each other they share a vision for how the team is built. But the decisions on personnel are Brandon Beane's. They way this roster is built bears all the hallmarks of the Hurney / Gettleman builds in Carolina when Beane was a senior exec in that front office. This is a Brandon Beane built roster. He makes the personnel decisions. 

[Aussie Joe]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

  He makes the personnel decisions. 

I’m talking about the draft…not the roster …

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’m talking about the draft…not the roster …

 

 

 

The draft is personnel decisions. They are Brandon Beane's. The people who think McDermott is in the background making every decision are wrong. He has input. But the personnel decisions are not him.

[Aussie Joe]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The draft is personnel decisions. They are Brandon Beane's. The people who think McDermott is in the background making every decision are wrong. He has input. But the personnel decisions are not him.

We are going around in circles .. McD ticks the box on the draft picks 

 

 

Edited May 7 by Aussie Joe

[Thurman#1]

On 4/30/2024 at 1:02 AM, Logic said:

You pretty much said in one sentence what I tried to get across in my long OP. "I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid".

I think that's also the answer to your question that preceded it. Given how important this draft class was and how many picks the Bills had, not to mention the opportunity they had for a sort of "soft reset", I hoped they'd swing for the fences a little more. I would've been okay with them drafting less players overall, but picking higher on a few occasions.

I realize they picked late in the rounds, but I don't think that needs to be so prohibitive when you have the capital and creativity to move around the board. The Eagles also picked late, for instance, and I felt they had a really dynamite draft. 

Ultimately, I wanted this to be a "let's really focus on surrounding Josh with talent" draft or a "let's try to find a future star or two" draft, even if it meant taking some risks with current and future capital. Instead, it seems like they felt it was more of a foundational, "setting the table" sort of draft to re-stock the cupboards with things like defensive depth and special teams assets. 

Solid, but not exciting.

 

 

Well, I guess we can agree to mildly disagree.

 

IMO moving around and trading up a bit - say having a draft equivalent to Philly's - would still have left us having taken a step back.  this year. Even successful rookies rarely have such a huge impact that year, not enough to make up for losing Morse, Diggs and Gabe Davis, Tre, Leonard Floyd and several more marginal contributors. I just don't see it.

 

I mean, say we traded up for BTJ. Do you think he makes 1000 yards this season? It's certainly reasonably possible, but the odds are against it. My guess would be 700 - 900 yards, and that would be a success.

 

And comparing our draft to Philly's overlooks several facts. First, that they started six spots above us. If we'd had that draft spot, we could have picked up BTJ without a trade-up. Second they also started the day in a much better position, with picks 50 and 53.  Philly's original 22, 50 and 53 was a great deal better situation than our 28 and 60.

 

Their two seconds made it possible to both trade up to #40 and at the same time to acquire both an additional third and fourth.

 

Their final positions were considerably better than ours. That helped them do better in the draft. And they got to those final positions because they started with much better positions.

 

But yeah, for us, solid but not exciting. We weren't in a position, IMO, to do much better than we did.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

We are going around in circles .. McD ticks the box on the draft picks 

 

 

But they are Brandon Beane's decisions.

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

But they are Brandon Beane's decisions.

Which McD has to approve 

[Thurman#1]

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course he doesn't take guys the Head Coach doesn't want. They are very tight with each other they share a vision for how the team is built. But the decisions on personnel are Brandon Beane's. They way this roster is built bears all the hallmarks of the Hurney / Gettleman builds in Carolina when Beane was a senior exec in that front office. This is a Brandon Beane built roster. He makes the personnel decisions. 

 

 

Yes. This. Without a doubt.

 

 

Edited May 7 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 4/30/2024 at 2:03 AM, Bill from NYC said:

If we can, let's put everything aside and let only logic be our guide for the sake of this conversation....

 

1) If Carter is to be a  "leader" on the Bills, please tell me who he will lead and when.

 

2) What do you think Josh Allen would have been more pleased to have,  a 6'2" defensive tackle from Duke who might be a "leader" in the future (if he is still with the team) or another receiver with speed? 

 

3) In round two (after trading down), McDermott selected a wide receiver who is lisated as running a 4.62 40. In fact, on this linked site he had the worst 40 time of any listed wideout. Does this even concern you a little bit? https://gbnreport.com/2024-wr-ranking/ Now, if we play a 12 package we will have two TEs and a comparatively slow wide receiver, this for a QB with a cannon. Call me crazy but I don't like this very much.

 

Btw, I re-read my post to you and consider it to be too harsh. I am sorry, and I do pray for more patience. Be well.

 

 

 

 

 

Bill, Carter is going to be a team leader and soon.

 

No, almost certainly not as a rookie, generally it's not up to rookies to lead, but soon. At Duke they said there was one team-wide leader and that was Carter. So, soon. And there's every reason to believe Carter will be here for a while.

 

And if Josh Allen is smart - and he is - he'd be happier with the guy who makes the team better. Josh shows no signs of being an offense-or-bust guy.

 

As for speed, Keon ran a 4.62 at the combine. But also the electronic tracking data shows he plays faster than that. No, he's not a burner. Yes, he's fast enough to be very effective.  In any case, the final goal in drafting a WR is not to draft the fastest one. It is to draft the best one. Sometimes those two overlap. Plenty of times they do not.

 

I didn't want Coleman there. But I'm capable of being plenty wrong. We'll have to see.

 

As for not having anybody fast in 12, depends on whether Curtis Samuel is on the field. He ran a 4.31. Again, speed isn't everything.

 

No, it doesn't concern me right now that we might or might not have a burner on the field in 12 formations. It will if we turn out to be not very productive in those formations, but that's too early to say. I'm not all confident all of a sudden. Not one of those they-drafted-him-so-I'm-all-in guys, but but he's got a solid chance to be good or even very good. Looking forward to see if that happens.

[Bill from NYC]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. But Brandon Beane is in charge of personnel. He makes the calls. If we want to talk about the draft McDermott did run we found Tre White (all pro), Dion Dawkins (7 year starter) and Matt Milano (all pro). The drafts since then have been run by Brandon Beane and for good - and there has been a fair amount of good - and ill he is responsible for the selections.

This is true, but you left out the part about the Bills being desperate for a QB and McDermott trading the #10 pick (for scant return) all the way down to 27 and thus giving the Chiefs a dynasty with Mahomes. And before you tell me how many other teams passed on Mahomes, I don't care. We needed a QB desperately and McDermott not only screwed it up, he created a monster in a conference rival. McDermott got Beane the job. Or, do you think that he just drifted in from the Panthers? 

Let me make this clear: Your posts are great and you certainly are an asset to this board. To take it even a step further, you would be a huge plus to ANY football page, Bills or otherwise. That said, I will never quite grasp how you could think that Beane is the primary decision maker wrt the draft or perhaps even trades.

My guess is that wrt trades, McDermott decided that Diggs had to go (a decision I was fine with btw) and told Beane to get the best deal he could. Would you agree with this take or do you think the decision was all on Beane?

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

This is true, but you left out the part about the Bills being desperate for a QB and McDermott trading the #10 pick (for scant return) all the way down to 27 and thus giving the Chiefs a dynasty with Mahomes. And before you tell me how many other teams passed on Mahomes, I don't care. We needed a QB desperately and McDermott not only screwed it up, he created a monster in a conference rival. McDermott got Beane the job. Or, do you think that he just drifted in from the Panthers? 

Let me make this clear: Your posts are great and you certainly are an asset to this board. To take it even a step further, you would be a huge plus to ANY football page, Bills or otherwise. That said, I will never quite grasp how you could think that Beane is the primary decision maker wrt the draft or perhaps even trades.

My guess is that wrt trades, McDermott decided that Diggs had to go (a decision I was fine with btw) and told Beane to get the best deal he could. Would you agree with this take or do you think the decision was all on Beane?

 

 

McDermott did that, he's said so, because he didn't think he was capable of fully evaluating QBs, especially in the whirlwind of getting things started as a coach in his first year.

 

You don't care? Fine. But why should we care what you care about? Not that you're not just as smart as the rest of us - I'm sure you are - but pretending we know that Mahomes would have been the same guy in Buffalo is not reasonable. He might have, or he might not. Under Reid and with a year to sit and learn he has been terrific. So has Allen.

 

The reason he thinks Beane is the primary decision maker is because there is zero credible evidence that it isn't true. Zero. Beane says it's true, McDermott says it's true, everyone says it's true, and there's no reason to think Beane would settle for being a rubber stamp.

[Bill from NYC]

16 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Bill, Carter is going to be a team leader and soon.

 

No, almost certainly not as a rookie, generally it's not up to rookies to lead, but soon. At Duke they said there was one team-wide leader and that was Carter. So, soon. And there's every reason to believe Carter will be here for a while.

 

And if Josh Allen is smart - and he is - he'd be happier with the guy who makes the team better. Josh shows no signs of being an offense-or-bust guy.

 

As for speed, Keon ran a 4.62 at the combine. But also the electronic tracking data shows he plays faster than that. No, he's not a burner. Yes, he's fast enough to be very effective.  In any case, the final goal in drafting a WR is not to draft the fastest one. It is to draft the best one. Sometimes those two overlap. Plenty of times they do not.

 

I didn't want Coleman there. But I'm capable of being plenty wrong. We'll have to see.

 

As for not having anybody fast in 12, depends on whether Curtis Samuel is on the field. He ran a 4.31. Again, speed isn't everything.

 

No, it doesn't concern me right now that we might or might not have a burner on the field in 12 formations. It will if we turn out to be not very productive in those formations, but that's too early to say. I'm not all confident all of a sudden. Not one of those they-drafted-him-so-I'm-all-in guys, but but he's got a solid chance to be good or even very good. Looking forward to see if that happens.

Good post, thank you. I truly do hope you are right. I suppose that my nature is just more pessimistic than yours.

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

Good post, thank you. I truly do hope you are right. I suppose that my nature is just more pessimistic than yours.

 

 

Oh, and hey, the pessimistic view could turn out to be right here. I certainly hope not, but it absolutely could.

[finn]

On 4/29/2024 at 8:39 AM, HaldimandBills said:

I dont like this logic. We built fantastic depth in this draft which is what we needed to do instead of dishing out 4 to 5 million $ to rotational linebackers, dlineman, and secondary.

 

Coleman replaces Gabe Davis. Nothing more. Nothing less. He grades to be better than Davis. Diggs isn't replaceable. Bills are gonna sling the ball all over the field rather than force feed one guy. Let's see how this works out. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Coleman, Knox, Cook, Ray Davis is so much better than people are giving credit. This group is light years better than 

 

Diggs, Mckenzie, Davis, Singletary

Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Singletary

Diggs, Davis, barely used Shakir and Kincaid until last few games, Cook coming out party near the end.

 

Our RB room has never been better. Oline is better than any season outside last under Allen.

 

Bills have never had elite talent at receiver besides Diggs. This group is better than any receiver the Bills have had besides Diggs and Beasley in 2021.

 

Cole Bishop replaces Poyer and I love this pick.  Starter day one. 

 

Bills are absolutely flushed with cap space and draft picks for 2025. We will have 7 picks in the top 150 next year. (1) 1st (2) 2nds (1) 3rd (4) 4ths. You can't go all in every year. 

 

This is what made the Chiefs Super Bowl this season so special for them. 2023 was clearly a transition year for the Chiefs and they still won anyways. 

 

Dolphins and Jets are about to enter cap hell after this season and the Patriots are a long way a way. For now I'll enjoy 2024 and see how the young defense develops and how the post Diggs offense runs.

Great take. Beane played a bad hand impressively. Diggs was washed. Between force-feeding him another year and hope for better results, Beane leveraged what is likely to be a high second-round pick next year. Between sticking with a WR 2 who had every chance to step up and didn't, he drafted a much more talented replacement. Morse is a loss, but he might have hit the wall, too, and they needed the cap space, and it looks like Beane found a capable replacement. He added depth everywhere. People forget lack of depth killed us the past two years, when the starting roster was good enough to go all the way. They still need a starting-quality free safety and another dependable pass rusher, but I agree with the OP that this WR group can get the job done. 

 

Put it this way: Add a veteran FS, and this team already looks better than the injured teams the Bills fielded the past two years. Ironically, they might go all the way when those other teams couldn't. 

[Bill from NYC]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Oh, and hey, the pessimistic view could turn out to be right here. I certainly hope not, but it absolutely could.

I am probably older than you. After the rule changes (2010?) I had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the new style of NFL passing based football. At the time I thought that was Arena League stuff. Now, it is impossible to deny what the NFL has become. Everybody makes mistakes but you just don't trade down from 10 to 27 and draft a corner when you DESPERATELY need a QB. 

 

In subsequent drafts we then traded UP for an ILB and another corner in round one. It's just very hard for me to not think that these were McDermott type moves given his history. It just seems like a logical assumption to me. Either way, GO BILLS!!!!

[Chaos]

20 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

This is true, but you left out the part about the Bills being desperate for a QB and McDermott trading the #10 pick (for scant return) all the way down to 27 and thus giving the Chiefs a dynasty with Mahomes. And before you tell me how many other teams passed on Mahomes, I don't care. We needed a QB desperately and McDermott not only screwed it up, he created a monster in a conference rival. McDermott got Beane the job. Or, do you think that he just drifted in from the Panthers? 

Let me make this clear: Your posts are great and you certainly are an asset to this board. To take it even a step further, you would be a huge plus to ANY football page, Bills or otherwise. That said, I will never quite grasp how you could think that Beane is the primary decision maker wrt the draft or perhaps even trades.

My guess is that wrt trades, McDermott decided that Diggs had to go (a decision I was fine with btw) and told Beane to get the best deal he could. Would you agree with this take or do you think the decision was all on Beane?

Brandon Beane seems to be the opposite of Billy Beane. It is impossible for me to imagine he would tell the scouts “you don’t know” Or to tell McDermott “You play the guys I pick”.  Brandon Beane seems entirely collegial in his demeanor.  I can’t imagine there is any disagreement among Beane and McDermott before the draft begins.