Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same

[mjt328]

As I've said before, I think Brandon Beane is easily a Top 5-10 General Manager in the NFL.  

But for someone who's nickname is "big baller," his drafts have become extremely conservative and predictable.  

 

That's why so many fans are frustrated.  The franchise literally lost a half-dozen guys who were All-Pro talents in previous seasons.  But instead of shooting for the stars and trying to land a big-time IMPACT player, Beane was comfortable just filling out the roster with solid and safe players.

 

At this point, it feels like Beane's drafts are mostly on auto-pilot.  He knows what kind of players fit Sean McDermott's defensive system.  He knows what kind of character traits fit this locker room.  He doesn't like taking guys with injury risks, and prioritizes versatility/special teams ability.  He is willing to move around the board 4-5 spots, but tries to avoid parting with any picks 4th Round or earlier.  

- Rounds 1-2 he addresses the Bills two biggest needs.  Every single time.

- Rounds 3-5 he fills out depth on the roster at positions still needing bodies.

- By the last few rounds, we are usually out of fillable roster spots and he's ready to go home.

 

[HaldimandBills]

On 4/27/2024 at 6:26 PM, Logic said:

Trading up for one of the big three WRs -- which Beane said he didn't try to do -- would've done it.

Failing that, as I said, collecting quantity instead of quality might've accomplished that. Giving greater priority to surrounding Allen with multiple skillsets at wide receiver. 

When I look at the Bills' WR corps as it stands right now, it's hard not to feel like it's one of the least inspiring groups in the league.

I dont like this logic. We built fantastic depth in this draft which is what we needed to do instead of dishing out 4 to 5 million $ to rotational linebackers, dlineman, and secondary.

 

Coleman replaces Gabe Davis. Nothing more. Nothing less. He grades to be better than Davis. Diggs isn't replaceable. Bills are gonna sling the ball all over the field rather than force feed one guy. Let's see how this works out. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Coleman, Knox, Cook, Ray Davis is so much better than people are giving credit. This group is light years better than 

 

Diggs, Mckenzie, Davis, Singletary

Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Singletary

Diggs, Davis, barely used Shakir and Kincaid until last few games, Cook coming out party near the end.

 

Our RB room has never been better. Oline is better than any season outside last under Allen.

 

Bills have never had elite talent at receiver besides Diggs. This group is better than any receiver the Bills have had besides Diggs and Beasley in 2021.

 

Cole Bishop replaces Poyer and I love this pick.  Starter day one. 

 

Bills are absolutely flushed with cap space and draft picks for 2025. We will have 7 picks in the top 150 next year. (1) 1st (2) 2nds (1) 3rd (4) 4ths. You can't go all in every year. 

 

This is what made the Chiefs Super Bowl this season so special for them. 2023 was clearly a transition year for the Chiefs and they still won anyways. 

 

Dolphins and Jets are about to enter cap hell after this season and the Patriots are a long way a way. For now I'll enjoy 2024 and see how the young defense develops and how the post Diggs offense runs.

[CirclnWagons]

Though the Mafia spin doctors have been working 24/7 to have you believe there hasn’t been a draft go this well for a team since what Sonny Weaver Jr pulled off for the Browns in 2014, there’s no doubt we lost a lot of talent, leadership and experience. What does a successful season look like for this depleted roster? Could we say top 2 in division and wild card is legit expectation for this crew or am I too optimistic? 

[McBean]

On 4/27/2024 at 5:07 PM, Logic said:

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

He hasn’t done what I highlighted since we drafted Josh.

 

We’ve pointed the finger at everyone, fired everyone, blamed our past star WR, next we will be blaming the janitors and traffic guards.

 

It’s all one persons fault that I shall not name because I’ll get another 2 month ban. Until he who will not be named goes, we aren’t going anywhere.

 

*With that being said, I LOVE this draft and so excited about the PROCESS. Super Bowl here we come!!!*

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, CirclnWagons said:

Though the Mafia spin doctors have been working 24/7 to have you believe there hasn’t been a draft go this well for a team since what Sonny Weaver Jr pulled off for the Browns in 2014, there’s no doubt we lost a lot of talent, leadership and experience. What does a successful season look like for this depleted roster? Could we say top 2 in division and wild card is legit expectation for this crew or am I too optimistic? 

 

I'd say those are legit expectations.  Considering what buffalo was able to accomplish with the volume of injuries a year ago and a tough schedule, i wouldn't put it past them to win the division again. 

[Governor]

On 4/27/2024 at 6:19 PM, KentuckyBillsFan said:

This front office will never build around Allen… and I think the biggest reason for that is Sean McDermott. 

It’s a double whammy too since he demands a tiny tweener defense.

[harmonkillebrew]

On 4/27/2024 at 4:07 PM, Logic said:

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

We on the same page, man.

 

Also have fingers crossed for June 1, but knowing Beane/McD they'll probably prioritize a rotational D-line signing

[BillsVet]

This was the "take your medicine" draft for McD and Beane after years of predominantly mediocre UFA decisions and meh drafts.  

 

Taking Josh in 2018 and fitting a lot of UFAs around him accelerated their rebuild.  Job accomplished.  But what McBeane have demonstrated is they could not maintain that because they relied so heavily on higher priced UFAs/trades, notably at DL, OL, and WR.     

 

They kicked the can down the road often through frequent re-structuring.    

 

I'd argue it's harder to maintain a top team than it is to rebuild, but that task is made harder when you're trying to be solid across on both sides.  

 

Point is, you can't build out a complete team in this era and gotta prioritize.  And you must draft well or else it leads to UFA spending that eventually catches up with you.  That happened this season.  

 

Everyone here who follows the league understands the Bills are swimming against the current balancing the team between defense and offense.  Hoping to break the mold at WR featuring a bunch of small and big slot types who will operate closer to the LOS.  Expecting the defense to remain healthy into the playoffs and as effective there as they typically are in the regular season.  

 

It might be a "transition" season, but it was coming.  This isn't a discussion about individual players.  It's whether or not, once again, their plan is appropriate.  We're going to see.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

Very well-thought-out out post. I appreciate the time it took. A few of my thoughts...

 

I think there were a couple of things at work here with the leadership guys. With the team in "transition," I think they needed a culture change. It seemed like things had gotten a bit rotten, and stale, and the Diggs stuff felt like a cancer spreading through the team. This is a culture/leadership reset to go along with the cap reset. They did acquire a lot of talent and if those guys happen to be a bit older it does not really matter because they are cheap labor for 4 years. I would much rather grab Carter in the third round than pay a guy like Tim Settle. I think it is a good approach because if you simply go boom or bust, there is a good chance you still have to go sign washed-up vets if the young guys are not ready to contribute. You want to avoid having to add AJ Klein for a playoff game. 

 

While it is true that a lot of this draft is singles and doubles, the Coleman pick is the ultimate swing for the fences pick. This is like the Josh Allen of receivers in some ways. He is unconventional and has holes in his game that can be fixed. He is young and if it hits it is massive, massive upside. A guy who is shifty enough to return punts at 6-3, 215 and to be a D1 big time basketball recruit who can't run good routes? That screams to me a kid who has not been coached enough. Clearly, he has the potential to put that together. He just has to learn how to run routes without the ball the way he runs and moves with the ball in his hands. All that time spent on basketball and AAU stuff probably hurt his football development some. Huge potential is there, but it is risky. You have to trust your development system. 

 

Ladd McConkey would have been a bunt. Micthell was my guy, and Mitchell would have been a big swing, but you may be bringing in another head case. He started his Lions interview with the media Josh Rosen style, saying how angry he is about being passed up etc rather than being thankful and grateful. A lot of people wanted Javon Baker as the second guy, an underachieving former big time prospect who runs 4.55? That guy is already on the roster, he's a lot bigger and named Justin Shorter. 

 

The bold move up into the top ten just wasn't going to happen. It sounds great on paper, but it is clear none of those teams were going to move all the way down to 28. Additionally, there would have been no second or third round pick this year and likely no 1 or 2 next year. So now you are stuck filling out the roster with mediocre veterans again. This path just never seemed realistic to me. 

 

Should they have double-dipped with another WR? Maybe. But if the value wasn’t there for them I get it. In hindsight they must really like what Hamler, Shorter, Shavers etc bring to the table. Hamler is the sleeper here imo. He's still younger than a bunch of the guys who got drafted. Whether we agree with it or not, we don’t know what these guys are doing in the background.  

 

It was a solid draft with basically 4 swing for the fences picks in Coleman, Solomon, Grable, and Clayton. The rest of the draft was adding a bust-proof future starter safety and a DT who is excellent at rushing the passer from the interior, and then a bunch of solid depth. 

 

Did they do enough to really help Josh? Maybe. They got him the receiver he wanted and a back who can get tough yards. I am not sure what else they could have done aside from draft another receiver somewhere who may or may not make the team. Perhaps a trade-up for Franklin or Walker would have made sense, but again those guys have flaws as well and you have to consider what you miss out on if you make those moves.

 

If Coleman hits, it does have the potential to put the team over the top in a way that no one else outside the top 3 receivers could. 

Edited April 29 by MrEpsYtown

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

This draft brings a lot of energy and, yes, leadership, to an established franchise that needed something new after just getting to the doorstep for the past four years.

 

OK, I'll bite.

 

How in hell does this draft bring "leadership" to the Bills? Which rookie will be the leader? I understand your ever present pom pom waving. After all, it is a Bills Board. That said, is there any possible thing that McDermott could do that you wouldn't swear is great?  Do you think even a little before you post about "leadership" from rather unheralded draftees? 

 

Geez. 

 

 

[eball]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

OK, I'll bite.

 

How in hell does this draft bring "leadership" to the Bills? Which rookie will be the leader? I understand your ever present pom pom waving. After all, it is a Bills Board. That said, is there any possible thing that McDermott could do that you wouldn't swear is great?  Do you think even a little before you post about "leadership" from rather unheralded draftees? 

 

Geez. 

 

 

 

Did you listen to Carter's introductory press conference?  3-year captain at Duke.

 

Bill, you have an axe to grind over McDermott so it's hard take much of what you say seriously.

 

[NC-billsfan!]

On 4/27/2024 at 6:07 PM, Logic said:

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Excellent post, and well researched. I couldn’t agree more with your assessment of the players, especially Coleman. Man I love the kid, but you’re right. It gets talked a lot on here about Josh likes separation when throwing to his receivers. Coleman looks like an acrobatic contested catch receiver. On paper, it’s not a good match. With that being said, I trust the front office and coaches. Hopefully they work their magic. We can’t afford to miss on such a high pick.

 

I’m really excited to see what McD. Will do with Bishop.

[HaldimandBills]

1 hour ago, CirclnWagons said:

Though the Mafia spin doctors have been working 24/7 to have you believe there hasn’t been a draft go this well for a team since what Sonny Weaver Jr pulled off for the Browns in 2014, there’s no doubt we lost a lot of talent, leadership and experience. What does a successful season look like for this depleted roster? Could we say top 2 in division and wild card is legit expectation for this crew or am I too optimistic? 

 

Bills should be the AFC East fav. This isn't the NBA where names rule the day. Bills interior dline and linebackers will be better than last year. Safety has a load of potential. Corner remains the same. Edge has some intrigue.

 

Offense has far more above. avg talent rather than just feeding Diggs. Hoping for volume baskets. 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

Could not disagree more.  Gone are aging/expensive players on the downsides of their careers.  The lone exception was Gabe Davis — who was clearly not a difference-maker for this team.  Spots are opening for young talent to emerge.  Young guys who got off to great starts and are poised to get even better (Bernard/Kincaid/Cook) are now leading the way.

 

This draft brings a lot of energy and, yes, leadership, to an established franchise that needed something new after just getting to the doorstep for the past four years.

 

How anyone can say that takes them farther away from a Super Bowl is beyond me.

 

Hope youre right👍

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think Buffalo might be trying to prioritize being a more physical team, especially come playoff time.  The recent playoff losses have been as much to do with an inability to control the LOS on either side of the ball as much as anything else.  You want to stick to our pass catchers and hold?  Well we now have multiple ways to counter and create YAC on shorter passes - either with size (knox, kincaid, coleman), pass catching backs (cook and davis), and quickness (Shakir, Samuel).  

[Beck Water]

On 4/27/2024 at 6:28 PM, Roundybout said:

I guess my thing is that Josh’s most successful season (2020) was with Cole Beasley playing at his best. We had the chance to duplicate that with McConkey and we didn’t do it. 

 

I think the Bills feel the Cole Beasley role may be over-represented on the current roster with Khalil Shakir and the FA acquisition of Curtis Samuel (not that these guys are playing at Cole's level at present, but then, likely neither would McConkey)

 

It's also notable that one reason Beasley and Josh had that success in 2020 was that Brown was a vertical threat and Diggs fast enough to also stretch the field.

 

The weakness of that group, was guys who were strong enough to out-play physical coverage and to challenge for 50-50 balls.

11 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I think Buffalo might be trying to prioritize being a more physical team, especially come playoff time.  The recent playoff losses have been as much to do with an inability to control the LOS on either side of the ball as much as anything else.  You want to stick to our pass catchers and hold?  Well we now have multiple ways to counter and create YAC on shorter passes - either with size (knox, kincaid, coleman), pass catching backs (cook and davis), and quickness (Shakir, Samuel).  

 

I think this is it.  In our most recent playoff losses, our WR have 100% been out-physicaled by "sticky" coverage.  I think the Bills are trying to become a more physical, powerful team offensively.  Whether they've got the right guys for that, time will tell but I can't fault the logic that it's insanity to try the same thing and expect different results, therefore the Bills are going for some different qualities in their player personnel.

 

Aside, but what's super-frustrating to me is after the Zebras allowed KC to hold and shove and mug our WR all game in the AFCCG, the Superbowl crew of Zebras flagged the hell out of KC's secondary for the same behavior, helping Tampa to the win.

Edited April 29 by Beck Water

[Logic]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

This draft looks to me like one that will help us build towards the future, while still giving us a shot this year. I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid.

 

You pretty much said in one sentence what I tried to get across in my long OP. "I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid".

I think that's also the answer to your question that preceded it. Given how important this draft class was and how many picks the Bills had, not to mention the opportunity they had for a sort of "soft reset", I hoped they'd swing for the fences a little more. I would've been okay with them drafting less players overall, but picking higher on a few occasions.

I realize they picked late in the rounds, but I don't think that needs to be so prohibitive when you have the capital and creativity to move around the board. The Eagles also picked late, for instance, and I felt they had a really dynamite draft. 

Ultimately, I wanted this to be a "let's really focus on surrounding Josh with talent" draft or a "let's try to find a future star or two" draft, even if it meant taking some risks with current and future capital. Instead, it seems like they felt it was more of a foundational, "setting the table" sort of draft to re-stock the cupboards with things like defensive depth and special teams assets. 

Solid, but not exciting.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think the Bills feel the Cole Beasley role may be over-represented on the current roster with Khalil Shakir and the FA acquisition of Curtis Samuel (not that these guys are playing at Cole's level at present, but then, likely neither would McConkey)

 

It's also notable that one reason Beasley and Josh had that success in 2020 was that Brown was a vertical threat and Diggs fast enough to also stretch the field.

 

The weakness of that group, was guys who were strong enough to out-play physical coverage and to challenge for 50-50 balls.

 

I think this is it.  In our most recent playoff losses, our WR have 100% been out-physicaled by "sticky" coverage.  I think the Bills are trying to become a more physical, powerful team offensively.  Whether they've got the right guys for that, time will tell but I can't fault the logic that it's insanity to try the same thing and expect different results, therefore the Bills are going for some different qualities in their player personnel.

 

Aside, but what's super-frustrating to me is after the Zebras allowed KC to hold and shove and mug our WR all game in the AFCCG, the Superbowl crew of Zebras flagged the hell out of KC's secondary for the same behavior, helping Tampa to the win.

 

It's also a hell of a 2-high counter punch to be able to just consistently run the ball down the other teams throat.  We have better counters to 0-blitz teams with big dudes who can win 1x1 battles.  I think we'll struggle with "sticky man" at times, but again the best counter to that is to occasionally just throw it over there.  The reason we get fewer PI/DH penalties than other teams is largely because we don't throw it at them.  The other counter to "sticky man" coverage is to just have a bigger WR who can fight through that.  

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Very well-thought-out out post. I appreciate the time it took. A few of my thoughts...

 

I think there were a couple of things at work here with the leadership guys. With the team in "transition," I think they needed a culture change. It seemed like things had gotten a bit rotten, and stale, and the Diggs stuff felt like a cancer spreading through the team. This is a culture/leadership reset to go along with the cap reset. 

 

I agree with this.  I think it is obvious that in Diggs, at the least, we had a guy who wanted to win a Superbowl and felt entitled to point fingers everywhere but at the guy he sees in the mirror for the causes the Bills have fallen short 3 years running.   There have been a number of vets who I believe, signed with the Bills because they wanted a ring and thought they could ride the Bills to get there.  After a couple of seasons, that stales.  Vet leadership who from all appearances have great attitudes like Poyer and Hyde, had gotten old and the Bills needed to cut the cord and move on.  So a "culture reset" is needed.

 

It's not that we expect a 3rd round DLman to step up and become a leader in the DL room.  That's expected of Da'Quan Jones and Ed Oliver.  We're not expecting Bishop to necessarily be the DB "field general" his rookie year, that's expected of Edwards.  But we're bringing in guys who have that sense of personal responsibility and ability to lead, as our "leaders in training" during this reset.

 

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

While it is true that a lot of this draft is singles and doubles, the Coleman pick is the ultimate swing for the fences pick. This is like the Josh Allen of receivers in some ways. He is unconventional and has holes in his game that can be fixed. He is young and if it hits it is massive, massive upside. A guy who is shifty enough to return punts at 6-3, 215 and to be a D1 big time basketball recruit who can't run good routes? That screams to me a kid who has not been coached enough. Clearly, he has the potential to put that together. He just has to learn how to run routes without the ball the way he runs and moves with the ball in his hands. All that time spent on basketball and AAU stuff probably hurt his football development some. Huge potential is there, but it is risky. You have to trust your development system. 

 

To me, Coleman 100% fits Beane's draft profile for the first rounds.  Drafting in the bottom of the 1st, he likes to take a high ceiling/low floor prospect.  That's his Jam.  I think this was true of Allen, true of Tre'maine Edmunds, true of Rousseau with his minimal collage experience, true of Elam, and true of Coleman.  (I could make an argument it was true of Kincaid, as well).

 

The downside is that sometimes these guys take a year or two to start contributing according to their potential.  So it's especially a risk when we've moved out of the 1st so we don't have that cost-controlled 5th year on Coleman.   We just have to hope that Coleman follows the Edmunds and Kincaid trajectory where he's an immediate starter and contributor even if he doesn't hit his full potential for a season or two, and not the Rousseau or (shudder) Elam trajectory.   Whether or not, clearly Beane thought that risk was manageable in favor of moving up in the 5th

 

McDermott said something once about the position coaches not liking to start rookies because it's more work for them to get the rookies prepared and ready to go; it's more comfortable to start a vet who knows his assignments and correctly interprets what he sees (this was 2020, talking about Ed Oliver, I believe).  We've had some "churn" at the coaching assistants, and IMO part of that churn is seeking to move towards guys who are more willing to coach up the younger players and ride with them earlier in the season, in the hopes that they'll have had their growing pains and be ready to ride at the end.  I can see both perspectives, but there's a point that if you ride with a vet who is in some ways a "better" player earlier in the season AND more likely to not make it through a full season, you then take a double-hit when you bring in a rookie.  If you ride with a rookie and make up your mind to tolerate and correct some rookie mistakes, they're hopefully a better player by the last 3rd of the season AND if they're injured, the vet will be more able to come in with less learning curve.

 

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Should they have double-dipped with another WR? Maybe. But if the value wasn’t there for them I get it. In hindsight they must really like what Hamler, Shorter, Shavers etc bring to the table. Hamler is the sleeper here imo. He's still younger than a bunch of the guys who got drafted. Whether we agree with it or not, we don’t know what these guys are doing in the background.  

 

Yeah, I think people are getting it a bit mixed.  They're wanting 2 WR because they wanted Coleman and, say, McConkey or maybe Legette and Coleman.  Well, that was Either Or Not Both, so then folks are just salty that the Bills talent evaluation and theirs differ.  People are mad that the Bills picked Coleman instead of Worthy, Pearsall, Legette, or McConkey.  That's just one where time will tell; Beane has shown himself way smarter than a TBD draft afficionado at times.  Other times he's shown himself "out" vs the guys TBD would have picked.  There are some wild cards at play such as injuries - would Cody Ford have succeeded as a 2nd round pick if he hadn't been injured so much and tried so hard to play through it?  Can't use a time machine to find out.

 

Clearly the Bills could have taken Franklin instead of Carter at the bottom of the 3rd, but also clearly, he's a guy where 32 talent evaluators around the league differed significantly from the pundits who graded him as a top-10 WR and a 2nd round or top 50 player.  The Bills seemed to want no part of him or of Mitchell.

 

So then what we're talking about is whether there was a guy within reach from the 4th round on with whom we should have double-dipped.  We're not talking "the Bills didn't take BTJ and Legette or Worthy.  We're talking the Bills didn't take one of the guys in reach at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd AND a guy in the late rounds, and while yes, this draft's WR quality is good, that doesn't mean that the guys drafted in the 5th are automagically better than the guys we drafted or signed last season.  That's the bottom line: whether they're right or wrong, the Bills like someone in the Shorter/Shavers/Hamler/Thompson/Isabella group and feel they have a better shot to contribute this season, better than they like Anthony Gould, Ainais Smith, or Jamari Thrash.

 

I will admit Beane pisses me off at times when he talks as though the only way the Bills could have gotten a top WR like Ja'Marr Chase is to "suck that bad", when plainly, there were guys within reach of our original draft slot who have proven to be top WR.

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

 That's the bottom line: whether they're right or wrong, the Bills like someone in the Shorter/Shavers/Hamler/Thompson/Isabella group and feel they have a better shot to contribute this season

 

 

 

 

that doesn't really make me feel better considering last season they were counting on Sherfield and Harty

 

i mean at this point it honestly feels like we do this w the WR room every offseason