[Vague Title]

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But I am also the guy who had a 2nd round pick on Dak Prescott when he was seen as a mid round backup

You also loved Rosen when I told you he was gonna bust hard.  Hahaha 😂 sorry couldn’t resist bud 

 

But yes, GMs aren’t going to be right every time either, and it cracks me up when people (not at all talking about you, talking about the melt down people) bring like one time where they were “I told you take DK over Ford” as proof they know more about drafting players while conveniently not remembering the 1000 other players they wanted that busted over guys who didn’t.  Or all the guys they laughed at because they never heard of who go on to be great players.  

[Hermes]

44 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

This is called copium. We’ve all been there.

 

Colemans issue was never really smoothness. His problem is that he has no ability to seperate. Thats the issue. And none of his YouTube videos ever showed that getting better. He makes up for it by being incredibly skilled at adjusting to the ball and catching in contested spaces.

 

If I'm being honest that was the Bills WRs biggest problem last year "adjusting to the ball and catching in contested spaces" how many times did we fans watch Josh throw a dime to Davis and Diggs only to watch the ball hit the turf?

 

I'm sick of fans talking up how good Diggs is, and that Davis is a huge loss.  They're both overrated and I say good riddance.

 

Maybe Coleman will actually make the circus catches I've grown accustomed to watching other teams make against the Bills. He cant be worse than Davis or Diggs, they're more liable to drop it than make a play.

 

Samuel isn't going to be huge drop-off from Diggs and getting Davis subbed off the field by a jag is addition by subtraction

[Einstein]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Clearly I don't know as much as Brandon Beane. But I feel I know enough to have an opinion.

 

I would argue that anyone who has average-to-strong football analysis capability has enough knowledge to have an opinion after only 20 minutes of player game-tape. Not know more than you - but enough to have a fair opinion.

 

I recall an analysis done several years ago where it was shown that if the various Bills front offices of the drought (close to 20 years of drafts), simply followed the public sentiment of player grading (I don’t recall the exact public list), the team would have drafted more high caliber players than they actually did over that span.

That was incredibly eye opening to me, and showed that the NFL GM’s who had done thousands of hours of game review know not much more (in terms of predictably of success) than the guys watching significantly less.

 

 

Edited April 27 by Einstein

[<bills4life>]

2 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Armchair GMs are the worst.  People act like they know more than Beane and his staff.  It’s laughable 

And those who blindly anoint beane as the second coming of Jesus Christ are every bit of insufferable. 

[Einstein]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Where was your genius when we drafted Bernard?  How about Milano?  Were you on here challenging those picks too?  

 

Huh? The conversation you quoted had nothing to do with the Bills picked. It was talking about trading with the Chiefs.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

 

Replacing what Gabe did well is complete.  We replaced him with a superior player (imo anyway) that can do everything he did as well as thing he couldn’t do (contested catches and rac)

 

Yep. That is the way to see this pick. We have upgraded on Gabe Davis as WR2. But if you see Curtis Samuel therefore as the Diggs replacement we have significantly downgraded at that spot.

[julian]

29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Define “be wrong more than right.” I’m not understanding. Is it, “he will not predict the correct first 32” or “more of the players that he will like will fail than succeed?” He has the data on the latter.

 

Of the scouting equation, I would say 60% tape, 30% athletic profile, 10% interview. The medical is its own bucket. Scouts aren’t the ones evaluating that, doctor’s are. From a scouting standpoint he is doing 90% of what the teams are doing. Gunner is not putting guys on the white board but otherwise it’s a similar process. I think that you’re underselling how similar it is to the team’s process. 

If you’re suggesting any poster, not just the one in question are essentially running an NFL equivalent evaluation and scouting process here on TBD, then I have a bridge to sell.

 

 It’s cool that fans find so much enjoyment in closely following some college players in an attempt to replicate what the professionals do for a living, but it’s for fun and I’m sure they themselves would admit it.

 

I don’t put anymore stock into some dude on CBS sports crafting his top 100 than I do a poster here who spends his spare time evaluating college players, neither of them are playing with a full deck of cards.

 

Its good fun though.

[<bills4life>]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. That is the way to see this pick. We have upgraded on Gabe Davis as WR2. But if you see Curtis Samuel therefore as the Diggs replacement we have significantly downgraded at that spot.

Who knows maybe beane has a trade in place for a dk metcalf type player.  If that is the case I would feel so much better knowing that Coleman is our Gabe Davis replacement and not our number one.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

You also loved Rosen when I told you he was gonna bust hard.  Hahaha 😂 sorry couldn’t resist bud 

 

But yes, GMs aren’t going to be right every time either, and it cracks me up when people (not at all talking about you, talking about the melt down people) bring like one time where they were “I told you take DK over Ford” as proof they know more about drafting players while conveniently not remembering the 1000 other players they wanted that busted over guys who didn’t.  Or all the guys they laughed at because they never heard of who go on to be great players.  

 

Yep the 2018 Quarterback class was not my finest hour. For sure. But the "oh anyone who gets something right that GMs get wrong is just throwing ***** at the wall and getting some to stick" is a way of deflecting any criticism from the professionals who sometimes despite all their information make bad choices because a) they misevaluate; b) they convince themselves that what they want to be the case is the case when they have roster holes. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. That is the way to see this pick. We have upgraded on Gabe Davis as WR2. But if you see Curtis Samuel therefore as the Diggs replacement we have significantly downgraded at that spot.

First, I appreciate the time and the work you put in.  But you have no way to know if Samuel is a downgrade.  Diggs performance fell off the second half of last year, roughly corresponding to the switch in OC.  Brady’s offense appears to be more focused on spreading the ball around.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

First, I appreciate the time and the work you put in.  But you have no way to know if Samuel is a downgrade.  Diggs performance fell off the second half of last year, roughly corresponding to the switch in OC.  Brady’s offense appears to be more focused on spreading the ball around.  

 

Oh come on. Stefon Diggs is a better player than Curtis Samuel. By any scale. 

[Beast]

I rarely have a hot take when talking about any draftee. Those kind of takes end up being immortalized in threads like the Josh Allen drafted one. 

[Einstein]

37 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

The narcissistic point of view that you think you know more and have even 1% the info and knowledge on these players as Beane and his staff do is hilarious.  

 

I would send you to what I told Gunner. Here, i’ll copy/paste it for you:

 

I recall an analysis done several years ago where it was shown that if the various Bills front offices of the drought (close to 20 years of drafts), simply followed the public sentiment of player grading (McShay, Kiper, etc) the team would have drafted more high caliber players than they actually did over that span.

That was incredibly eye opening to me, and showed that the NFL GM’s who had done thousands of hours of game review know not much more (in terms of predictably of success) than the guys watching significantly less.

 

 

Edited April 27 by Einstein

[Billy Claude]

2 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

Yes sir.

They are trying to own the middle of the field......create mismatch nightmares and rely on YAC......more like death by a thousand cuts.

 

 

Aren't these the things that Josh Allen is not very good at?   Are they trying to fit a square peg into a round hole?  This is what is puzzling to me.   It was like when Dennison came in and decided to run the WCO with Tyrod Taylor.

 

 

[ScorpionZero]

I got an idea instead of worrying about who's suppose to replace who, or who compares to who, I say we hope for a WR room that catches the damn ball, gets first downs, gets touchdowns and allows for Josh to pass for 5000+ yards and 45+tds. Along with run blocking well so we can be a better running team. I personally would give up a thousand of those yards and 7 or so touchdown if we could get to a 50/50 split and making other defenses gear the run.

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Well...there is no guarantee they are right either.

 

Plenty of round 4 WRs end up as really good players that would have been taken in the first round of there was a "do over" 4 years later.

 

I guess we would have to revisit it in 4 years to know, just like we would any pick really.

 

That wasn't the question.

[SDS]

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[Rocky Landing]

This has been a much tougher draft compared to the last few (which is well beyond mosts fans attention spans...) because we have so many more holes to fill this season. When you look at how many players have left, starters and depth, it really brings to light how daunting this offseason is. In the last few offseasons, Beane had filled all the holes, to some degree, before the start of the draft. There was no way to do that this time around. Bills came due, and players aged out this year. There are no luxury picks, no flyers, and no BPAs at unneeded positions for this draft, and by the end of the day, all holes will not be filled.

 

That will all make this draft a much less satisfying experience for a lot of fans. And it probably also means that Beane/McDermott have to prioritize certain traits in a different order than in previous drafts. Leadership, and durability are probably getting more consideration this time around. Concepts like "raw, but has a lot of potential" are probably less attractive this time around. It is what it is. All I can say is, GO BILLS!

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh come on. Stefon Diggs is a better player than Curtis Samuel. By any scale. 

Oh come on.  Diggs is getting older and fell off last year.  He will at best be the Texans #2 this year (good luck with that CJ).  If you don’t mind. , I’d like to see what happens before making sweeping pronouncements.

[Dubie54]

2 hours ago, peterpan said:

The more YouTube vids I see of Coleman, the better he is loooking.  I was a little too quick to judge at first.  He is faster and smoother than I remembered.  Still a project guy tho 

Not sure I’d call him a project. He does need to expand his route running options, but I think he can be a day one starter given his physicality, size and great hands. With Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel and Coleman we have the makings of a very talented and diverse receiver corps. 

 

2 hours ago, peterpan said:

The more YouTube vids I see of Coleman, the better he is loooking.  I was a little too quick to judge at first.  He is faster and smoother than I remembered.  Still a project guy tho