[Vague Title]

[ScorpionZero]

48 minutes ago, zevo said:

I 100% admit Coleman was not even on my radar at 33. This is because I was conditioned by months of endless listening to WGR and all the "draft experts" basically removing him from 1st/2nd round contention. I would have bet any money Franklin would have been the pick. This is because I know jack ***** about scouting. I get my info second hand from what I listen to and 99.99% of this board does as well. To whine and cry that beane and the bills have no ***** idea what they are doing is absolutely insane to me. the fools on the radio and twitter make you think if a wr does not run a 4.3 40 time they are worthless athletes. not saying this pick will work out but looking at it now Coleman seems like a fine young man who's tape shows an absolute baller that took over games. his upside is big. excited for him and for this offense next year. go bills

I'm so glad I don't listen to wgr anymore, lived in Buffalo for 50 years and now I'm in Florida, cliche I know, I just do what the wifey tells me. As for Coleman I had him in the top half of second, in fact I made several mocks trading back into the early 2nd to pick him to go along with AD, Mcconkey, Mitchell at 28, so as to have balance with skill sets 

Edited April 27 by ScorpionZero

[SoonerBillsFan]

After the dust has settled I am happy with our picks.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

For all the whining and bellyaching about Coleman being our first pick (I was disappointed myself) it’s time to man up and admit that none of us are draft experts…some draft analysts had Franklin going late 1st, and many of us would’ve been happy taking him at 33.  For those in here who had Franklin going 4th round, where have we erred, and why were we so wrong?  

You’re right, but I will say that I was pretty public in my dislike of Franklin.

[Buddy Hix]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

This place is insufferable during the draft with clowns like you and these hot takes 

So it’s a hot take to say I can’t understand why you’d take a WR that data shows is historically bad against press coverage (55.2%) while Beane justifies the pick by saying KC is great vs press?

 

KC is historically slow, data backs this up also. I’m not gaslighting, my criticisms are well documented. 
 

And calling me clown? Maybe emotional posters violating the COC are what makes this place insufferable. Just a thought, tough guy.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I have no idea if this guy is going to be a good WR. I have seen very little of him. I just feel like we didn’t do anywhere near enough at WR. I don’t want to even attempt to fix this today. These rounds are not where you find suitable replacements. Can you get lucky? Yes. Nothing in this league is a give. And I’m not interested in just writing years off. We lost the best/2nd best WR in teen history and Davis and replaced them with basically nothing. It’s not enough. I fully  expect led us to move way up and get one of the true studs here or trade for an Ayuk/Samuel. This isn’t good enough enough now and I fear it’s too late to make a move that will change that.

 

Are you serious?  What round was Diggs drafted in?  How about Antonio Brown?  How about Milano?  Shakir?  Taron?  What about Brady?  How about Pacheco?

 

I will never understand this notion so many fans have that you can only find great players in round 1 or maybe round 2.  The draft proves that wrong every single year.  Starting QB in the Super Bowl was the last pick in the 7th round.  The NFL leader in catch rate, efficiency, and yards per target was Shakir, a 5th round pick.  

 

And replaced Davis and Diggs with nothing?  Are you serious?  Davis has never reached 50 catches pllaying on a pass happy, cant run the ball, offense with one of the best QB's in the league.  Meanwhile, playing with scrub QB's Samuel has 4 seasons wtih over 50 to almost 80 catches.  And we just drafted a rookie (always the plan) to replace Diggs role.  The same Diggs role that saw him average like 3 to 4 catches the final stretch of the season and playoffs where he no showed again and dropped a key bomb that I promise you Coleman catches.  

 

No disrespect, but I could not disagree with a post more than I do this one.  GMs value these picks for a reason.  And we enter the season with Shakir and Kincaid ready to take next steps, Cook ready to as well with a proven vet finally playing with a good QB with Samuel, and a rookie who is open when not open that can go up and get the balls Diggs and Davis were dropping.  

 

For all you whining about speed too...Shakir is a 4.41 guy, Samuel is fast, and Coleman ran a much faster 40 at his pro day and also had the fastest Gauntlet time (a MUCH more important indicator of game speed) of anyone.  

 

This could be Allens best year not having the waste of space Davis and having to force feed Diggs where Allen had doube the INT rate throwing to those 2 than anyone else the last 2 years.  

[Buddy Hix]

1 hour ago, McMuffin said:

I remember Bean said that beating press was a strength for Coleman and that was one of the reasons they drafted him.

I know, which is really what has me confused. He not really efficient vs zone either.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, julian said:

And yet he will still be wrong more often than right, without the medicals and the ability to interview the prospects it’s nothing more than a flawed guessing game.

 

 I appreciate the effort a poster will put into knowing the players on the field, it allows me to follow along draft weekend with a couple personal favourites to hope for without taking the necessary time of doing it myself.

Define “be wrong more than right.” I’m not understanding. Is it, “he will not predict the correct first 32” or “more of the players that he will like will fail than succeed?” He has the data on the latter.

 

Of the scouting equation, I would say 60% tape, 30% athletic profile, 10% interview. The medical is its own bucket. Scouts aren’t the ones evaluating that, doctor’s are. From a scouting standpoint he is doing 90% of what the teams are doing. Gunner is not putting guys on the white board but otherwise it’s a similar process. I think that you’re underselling how similar it is to the team’s process. 

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, zevo said:

expound on why this was egregious? the fact that our gm shows nfg about who he trades with as long as it benefits his franchise should make you happy.

 

It doesn’t make me happy at all. We handed the Chiefs who they wanted and it only gained us moving up 1 round. This is the team we are chasing. It has universally mocked by pundits and rightfully so. We can only

hope that Worthy doesn’t become a stud, but that is hardly the point in my

opinion. I am not interesting in making it any easier for the team we are chasing to obtain the player they want. Maybe they still get him anyway, but it shouldn’t be due to us handing the player to them.

 

If they want to trade with us, it should come with a large tax.

[McBean]

2 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I have no idea if this guy is going to be a good WR. I have seen very little of him. I just feel like we didn’t do anywhere near enough at WR. I don’t want to even attempt to fix this today. These rounds are not where you find suitable replacements. Can you get lucky? Yes. Nothing in this league is a give. And I’m not interested in just writing years off. We lost the best/2nd best WR in teen history and Davis and replaced them with basically nothing. It’s not enough. I fully  expect led us to move way up and get one of the true studs here or trade for an Ayuk/Samuel. This isn’t good enough enough now and I fear it’s too late to make a move that will change that.

great post.

 

Agreed.

[zevo]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

It doesn’t make me happy at all. We handed the Chiefs who they wanted and it only gained us moving up 1 round. This is the team we are chasing. It has universally mocked by pundits and rightfully so. We can only

hope that Worthy doesn’t become a stud, but that is hardly the point in my

opinion. I am not interesting in making it any easier for the team we are chasing to obtain the player they want. Maybe they still get him anyway, but it shouldn’t be due to us handing the player to them.

 

If they want to trade with us, it should come with a large tax.

I think thats bad business. you always do what best for you. Yeah kc has the rings. I get that. but it is not like they are on another level than the bills. this is why I can't wrap my head around these fear bunkers. do what's best for your team.

[Bills Bud]

12 minutes ago, zevo said:

expound on why this was egregious? the fact that our gm shows nfg about who he trades with as long as it benefits his franchise should make you happy.

Helping the Chiefs only hurts the Bills. It’s common sense. Not saying the Chiefs would not been able to get Worthy at 32, but who knows. Now the Chiefs have the fastest guy in the league, and you are always going to need to put a guy over the top to respect that. Which only opens things up even more for Kelce and co.

[zevo]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Are you serious?  What round was Diggs drafted in?  How about Antonio Brown?  How about Milano?  Shakir?  Taron?  What about Brady?  How about Pacheco?

 

I will never understand this notion so many fans have that you can only find great players in round 1 or maybe round 2.  The draft proves that wrong every single year.  Starting QB in the Super Bowl was the last pick in the 7th round.  The NFL leader in catch rate, efficiency, and yards per target was Shakir, a 5th round pick.  

 

And replaced Davis and Diggs with nothing?  Are you serious?  Davis has never reached 50 catches pllaying on a pass happy, cant run the ball, offense with one of the best QB's in the league.  Meanwhile, playing with scrub QB's Samuel has 4 seasons wtih over 50 to almost 80 catches.  And we just drafted a rookie (always the plan) to replace Diggs role.  The same Diggs role that saw him average like 3 to 4 catches the final stretch of the season and playoffs where he no showed again and dropped a key bomb that I promise you Coleman catches.  

 

No disrespect, but I could not disagree with a post more than I do this one.  GMs value these picks for a reason.  And we enter the season with Shakir and Kincaid ready to take next steps, Cook ready to as well with a proven vet finally playing with a good QB with Samuel, and a rookie who is open when not open that can go up and get the balls Diggs and Davis were dropping.  

 

For all you whining about speed too...Shakir is a 4.41 guy, Samuel is fast, and Coleman ran a much faster 40 at his pro day and also had the fastest Gauntlet time (a MUCH more important indicator of game speed) of anyone.  

 

This could be Allens best year not having the waste of space Davis and having to force feed Diggs where Allen had doube the INT rate throwing to those 2 than anyone else the last 2 years.  

fans here are totally writing off Samuel and Shakir. Have no idea why. Shakir is a breakout candidate. and we already know Samuel ability.

[PonyBoy]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

Ive watched Coleman at Michigan and FSU.....

 

The kid has immeasurable tangibles that fit right in with our roster.......he's big, athletic, his hands are ball magnets, he's physical and can be a mismatch nightmare anywhere on the field.

Don't let the combine fool you.......yes, his 40 time was slow, however, he had the best time in the gauntlet and the pass-arounds from all other WR's there. Think about that, you pancake eating mother-****ers.

 

I like the pick.

I can see what our coaching staff is trying to put together here. I didn't see it recently, but i'm seeing the roster they are trying to build and the philosophy behind it.

 

Regardless of what our armchair GM's on these boards think, it was a good pick.

 

I have spoken.

 

Sorry...coffee came out of my nose when I read ball magnets 😂

I'll re-read later.

Go Bills! 

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Are you serious?  What round was Diggs drafted in?  How about Antonio Brown?  How about Milano?  Shakir?  Taron?  What about Brady?  How about Pacheco?

 

Listing exceptions to the rule does not negate  the rule. They are called exceptions for a reason. Higher round draft picks are not valued more and cost more for no reason. It is because players chosen in those rounds are statistically more likely to succeed.

 

I recently read a statistical analysis that looked at draft picks up to 2015. WR’s drafted in the 1st and 2nd round had an approximately 50% success rate. As soon as the 3rd round hit, the success rate plummeted to 25%. The 4th round then plummeted to 12%. The last few rounds were around 10% and less if I recall correctly.

 

The players you listed are exceptions to the rule.

 

Ps, by “success”, the analysis was simply looking at WR’s who started for at least half of their career. So the barrier to be “successful” was pretty low, and it was STILL plummeted after the 2nd round.

 

 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

For all the whining and bellyaching about Coleman being our first pick (I was disappointed myself) it’s time to man up and admit that none of us are draft experts…some draft analysts had Franklin going late 1st, and many of us would’ve been happy taking him at 33.  For those in here who had Franklin going 4th round, where have we erred, and why were we so wrong?  

 

I was not a Franklin fan. Not saying he isn’t worth a day 3 pick in this draft, but a late first is ridiculous. the trouble he has tracking and catching balls thrown over his head is very concerning. He’s so poor at it that it could prevent him form every playing a meaningful snap in the NFL. 

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Are you serious?  What round was Diggs drafted in?  How about Antonio Brown?  How about Milano?  Shakir?  Taron?  What about Brady?  How about Pacheco?

 

I will never understand this notion so many fans have that you can only find great players in round 1 or maybe round 2.  The draft proves that wrong every single year.  

Puka Nacua is an even better comparison. He was picked at 177 overall twelve months ago.  He had 105 catches for 1486 yards as a rookie. Obviously that’s an outlier but the Bills still have a desperate need for boundary receiver(s). It isn’t crazy to think that there is a guy, not yet drafted, that could have 50 catches and 750 yards this year. 

[Green Lightning]

2 hours ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

For all the whining and bellyaching about Coleman being our first pick (I was disappointed myself) it’s time to man up and admit that none of us are draft experts…some draft analysts had Franklin going late 1st, and many of us would’ve been happy taking him at 33.  For those in here who had Franklin going 4th round, where have we erred, and why were we so wrong?  

He had a brutal combine. I wanted him as an early pick until the combine. Bailed on him after that.

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, zevo said:

I think thats bad business. you always do what best for you. Yeah kc has the rings. I get that. but it is not like they are on another level than the bills. this is why I can't wrap my head around these fear bunkers. do what's best for your team.

 

Doing what is best for your team includes the chess-style component of playing defense against your competition. Doing what is best for your team includes doing what is within your ability to block your greatest competition from improving their team.

 

Remember when Bill Belichick poison-pilled Wes Welker and screwed Miami? Remember when the Chargers selected Eli Manning just so they could block another team from getting him and therefore forcing a windfall of capital? There are many examples really.

 

There is an element of game theory in the NFL that great teams use to their advantage. 

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

When I was in my 20s and 30s I loved the Draft.  Couldn't get enough content or coverage.   Would get upset about picks, talk about reaches and value picks.

 

In my 40s I take it for what it is.   Teams picking players that they think will fit their programs based on educated guesses.   I don't down people on this board for having opinions, because some of you really understand the game.    Bottom line is somewhere between 60-70% of the guy's taken won't be anything beyond depth.

 

The Draft stopped being fun when the Bills got good.   I am more than happy for that.   It also gives me more reason to trust the guy's involved in their front office.   If you want something fun to do instead of the Draft, the NBA playoffs are a great alternative.

 

 

Very reasonable post but lost on me on the last line.

 

If you aren't going to watch the draft, at least watch NHL playoffs opposed to NBA😉

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Listing exceptions to the rule does not negate  the rule. They are called exceptions for a reason. Higher round draft picks are not valued more and cost more for no reason. It is because players chosen in those rounds are statistically more likely to succeed.

 

I recently read a statistical analysis that looked at draft picks up to 2015. WR’s drafted in the 1st and 2nd round had an approximately 50% success rate. As soon as the 3rd round hit, the success rate plummeted to 25%. The 4th round then plummeted to 12%. The last few rounds were around 10% and less if I recall correctly.

 

The players you listed are exceptions to the rule.

 

Ps, by “success”, the analysis was simply looking at WR’s who started for at least half of their career. So the barrier to be “successful” was pretty low, and it was STILL plummeted after the 2nd round.

 

 

Wait you’re saying higher drafted players have higher success rates?  Lol, you really needed to type 3 paragraphs to break that news?

 

Maybe you didn’t read the post I was responding to who was distraught at WR he didn’t even want to try and address anymore with these next picks because what’s the point in these rounds.  It’s so ridiculously absurd of a statement he should delete it so it doesn’t haunt his posting history for all of time.