3rd Day Draft Math

[HIT BY SPIKES]

I did some math using the traditional Draft Value Chart.

 

 

The Bills have the following draft picks today:

 

4th Round — 28th pick of the round (128th overall)

 

5th Round — 6th(141) + 9th(144) + 25th(160) + 28th(163)

 

6th Round — 28th(204)

 

7th Round — 1st(221)

 

 

 

If the Bills were to trade their 4th, 6th and 7th round picks, they may be able to acquire 3 more 5th round picks for a total of seven 5th round picks.

 

The 5th round has always been Beane’s sweet spot.

 

OK…I will resume drinking now.

 

[Big Turk]

I'm wondering if they start trading some of those picks for a round up next year and turn a few of those 5ths into 4ths for next year's draft?

 

Would be a nice way to add capital for next year and gain a round since there is no way 10 rookies are making this roster. Why draft players just to showcase them for other teams?

 

[turftoe]

I think we may trade up in round 4.

The teams that are most likely to trade down are NYG at pick 7, Pittsburgh at pick 17 and Chicago at pick 22. I think these 3 teams would like to add some picks, especially Chicago. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

So my 7 picks in the 5th strategy is not finding favour here.

[CaptnCoke11]

Hope they can pick a couple times in round 4 and unload a few of those 5ths 

[Rockinon]

4 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Hope they can pick a couple times in round 4 and unload a few of those 5ths 

Wouldn't be surprised if that actually happens.

[Nextmanup]

Wonder what they are gonna do with all that 5th round trash they have.  Hard to find anything close to a difference maker at that spot in the draft.  Pile them ALL up and trade for a player.

 

 

[gonzo1105]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Wonder what they are gonna do with all that 5th round trash they have.  Hard to find anything close to a difference maker at that spot in the draft.  Pile them ALL up and trade for a player.

 

 

As I said last night in a different thread, giving up a 4th and one 5th now will get you pretty far up the board. Basically if we gave up two 5ths we can pick first if the team wants to trade with us. 
 

Beane is now in a power position to pretty much get whoever he wants in round 4 if he chooses. 
 

He did say he would wait a little bit to see how the board was playing out though 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

The Lucky Seven Slots StrategyTM

[mrags]

Let’s not stop there. Let’s trade all of our picks next year too. Try and acquire the ENTIRE 5th rd this year. Just think if all the holes we need filled 

Edited April 27 by mrags

[ColoradoBills]

I so hope that whatever 5th rounders Beane actually uses as picks become starters like Milano.

 

Beane has work to do being he doesn't have any 5ths next year!

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, HIT BY SPIKES said:

So my 7 picks in the 5th strategy is not finding favour here.

lol. honestly I’d love it. especially in this draft 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Wonder what they are gonna do with all that 5th round trash they have.  Hard to find anything close to a difference maker at that spot in the draft.  Pile them ALL up and trade for a player.

 

 

Matt Milano

Khalil Shakir

Stephon Diggs

 

Found within the so called trash, is treasure. Increasing your selections statistically raises your chance in finding one. 
 

Packaging them all to move for an extra 4th? Not only is this not statistically accurate, you also have no idea what the board looks like in terms of graded value left. Maybe Beane and company see pick 101 not much different than 141. 
 

It’s impossible to know, but saying it’s trash is just assuming you’ll miss on no basis at all

56 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

As I said last night in a different thread, giving up a 4th and one 5th now will get you pretty far up the board. Basically if we gave up two 5ths we can pick first if the team wants to trade with us. 
 

Beane is now in a power position to pretty much get whoever he wants in round 4 if he chooses. 
 

He did say he would wait a little bit to see how the board was playing out though 

This is exactly right. Its very possible there are only a handful of players he has interest in at the beginning of day 3. If they go quick, staying patient and casting a wide net in round 5 is wiser than trading up for a player you don’t want just because of optics. 
 

Having taken WR, S, DT allows them to purely pick players they like at any position based solely on potential

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 hours ago, turftoe said:

I think we may trade up in round 4.

The teams that are most likely to trade down are NYG at pick 7, Pittsburgh at pick 17 and Chicago at pick 22. I think these 3 teams would like to add some picks, especially Chicago. 

I'm wondering if the Giants stick and pick a QB early today. Rattler still on the board. 

[Gunney]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Wonder what they are gonna do with all that 5th round trash they have.  Hard to find anything close to a difference maker at that spot in the draft.  Pile them ALL up and trade for a player.

 

 

There are gems to be found amongst the trash! Besides the GOAT consider these late draftees:

 

1. Shannon Sharp 7th Round, Overall 196. Hall of Fame, 8 Pro Bowls, 3 Super Bowl Rings

2. Terrell Davis 6th OVR 196. HOF, Twice Offensive Player of the Year, 2 SB rings, SB MVP

3. Zach Thomas, 5th OVR 154. HOF, 7 PBs

4. Antonio Brown, 6th OVR 195. 8 PBs

5. Richard Sherman, 5th 154. 5 PBs, 1 SB ring, 3 SB appearances

[HIT BY SPIKES]

Can we get two 5th round picks for our 4th round pick?

 

Which teams have two or more 5th round draft picks this year?