2024 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, NY Nole said:

I like alot of this analysis - but the “lacks separation” thing is a knock you can apply to every draft eligible receiver when talking about moving to the NFL. Worthy runs a helluva forty time and is bound to separate in a straight line or track oval - but may not always catch the ball which is pretty important for a receiver. For all the separation skills that Malik Nabers seems to possess - he didn’t get much separation against the two FSU defenders that were day 2 draft picks this year. When healthy Keon was a different dude on the field vs. the competition. He was simply at another level. He started the season as impressively as anyone I can remember and I was at the game against LSU. He was the best receiver on both sides of the ball - INCLUDING both LSU receivers drafted in round 1. He was plenty quick in that game regardless of forty time.  His other first half of the season games were plenty impressive too, as FSU probably doesn’t beat Clemson without him. He gets hurt in the Wake Forest game and was clearly not the same player . That is my knock on him - hope he can stay healthy with all the soft tissue type injuries (also had those at Mich State). In my opinion, he already is an upgrade from Gabe Davis. Anyone thinking he (or any college prospect) upgrades from loss of Steph Diggs this year is fooling themselves. Noone (even Harrison Jr.) would’ve done that - at least not in 2024 season. I think Bills will have a better offense in 2024 than 2023. For those that love to B word - relax and let this play out. You just might like the player Coleman turns into.

The difference is that all receivers don’t look like this coming out:

 

Obviously, as a Noles fan you’ve seen more of him than most of us. You certainly have a bias towards him (mine is similar for Curtis Samuel as a player). I hope that you’re right and the injuries were a factor. The Bills need Coleman to produce now. They backed themselves into a corner with how they’ve built the WR room. 

[MrEpsYtown]

@GunnerBill what do you think about doubling down with Hicks? You have to young guys who I think could be your tandem group for the next 4 years. I feel like their game has some crossover, but they can certainly play together in my mind. 

[NY Nole]

12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Obviously, as a Noles fan you’ve seen more of him than most of us. You certainly have a bias towards him (mine is similar for Curtis Samuel as a player). I hope that you’re right and the injuries were a factor. The Bills need Coleman to produce now. They backed themselves into a corner with how they’ve built the WR room. 

Agreed. Anyone who watches FSU knows that Norvell loves his Bubble Screen passes and Flat Routes. Coleman did what he was asked. I think he will be productive - and I am bullish that the Bills Offense will be even better than last year. In my opinion Gabe couldn’t catch and Diggs couldn’t shut up. Both problems have been remedied.

Edited April 27 by NY Nole

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

One of my sneaky favorite things about Coleman is that at 6'3" and 210+ lbs FSU decided to make him their punt returner. That's crazy to me. How many punt returners at the collegiate and NFL level are over 6'2" and 200lbs +? I don't envision the Bills asking Coleman to return punts but just the fact that he has and did do it I think shows the guy has some natural athletic ability beyond just being a tall and big bodied WR. 

Why wouldn’t the Bills have Coleman return punts?  It’s not like they have anyone else who can do it, although Shakir did manage to field a few last year…

[Einstein's Dog]

The draft did hit needs but the trade downs made it feel controlled and not panicked.  And the trades down look like they knew exactly who was intended as the target and they didn't want them (Worthy at 28, Legette at 32).   So the moves down look well thought out.

 

I agree with most everyone else that the WR spot is at a huge downgrade year over year as it stands now.  If K Coleman is the G Davis replacement and C Samuel is the Sherfield replacement the WR room could be upgraded.  But that means getting a Diggs replacement and that is not a rookie- so it will be interesting to me to see if they go full rebuild mode by drafting Franklin or keeping the spot open to fill with a veteran.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But that means getting a Diggs replacement and that is not a rookie- so it will be interesting to me to see if they go full rebuild mode by drafting Franklin or keeping the spot open to fill with a veteran.

 

We need to remember how much Diggs was being phased out of the offense when Brady took over. I really don't see us missing Diggs targets and receptions from the last half of the season and playoffs. Shakir was our leading reception and yardage receiver for the last half of the season. I was at the Chargers game, okay a game the offense struggled but that had more to do with three really bad turnovers two of which were fumbles by Cook and Harty. But it was amazing to be how many times Diggs was on the sideline for multiple plays in a row and some crucial third downs as well. Despite the phase out of Diggs the Bills won like 6 games in a row towards the end of the season. 

 

The big question is whether or not the presence of Diggs on the field, when he wasn't being phased out completely on the sideline, helped the other receivers get open. And will we miss that? That is hard to gauge. 

[Einstein's Dog]

15 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

We need to remember how much Diggs was being phased out of the offense when Brady took over. I really don't see us missing Diggs targets and receptions from the last half of the season and playoffs. Shakir was our leading reception and yardage receiver for the last half of the season. I was at the Chargers game, okay a game the offense struggled but that had more to do with three really bad turnovers two of which were fumbles by Cook and Harty. But it was amazing to be how many times Diggs was on the sideline for multiple plays in a row and some crucial third downs as well. Despite the phase out of Diggs the Bills won like 6 games in a row towards the end of the season. 

 

The big question is whether or not the presence of Diggs on the field, when he wasn't being phased out completely on the sideline, helped the other receivers get open. And will we miss that? That is hard to gauge. 

True, but I think the Bills need another good player at the WR spot.  It's an area where I believe you should have talent.  Now with Samuel/Shakir/ and Coleman they can use one more major contributor.  And I think having 2 rookies out of those key 4 WRs would make it a rebuild year.

[Chandler#81]

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I know some people are miffed that it was safety here and not a second receiver but Bishop makes a ton of sense and immediately upgrades the weakest starting unit on the roster. 

 

I don't mind that it wasn't a WR. The league told us Troy Franklin is a day three prospect, I accept that. I mind that it was a safety. Taking a safety in the first 2 rounds was the main thing I didn't want Beane to do. It is almost equivalent to taking a RB that high.

 

Beane has a history of filling short term needs in the 2nd, and Torrence so far looks to be his only hit with that philsophy. I would have much rather taken OL. Kingsley Suamataia got snatched by the Chiefs the very next pick. Next year when Spencer Brown gets priced off the team we'll be scrambling for a RT replacement at the last second because we took the short term need at a less valuable position the year before.

 

And once again we have spent two top 100 picks on the defense. As of right now our offense is clearly worse off than it was last year. On paper Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter is our #2 outside WR. Our OL was remarkably healthy last year and doesn't appear to have much leeway for injury. But we have safety and defensive line depth!! This regime just can't help themselves, unfortunately.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

@GunnerBill what do you think about doubling down with Hicks? You have to young guys who I think could be your tandem group for the next 4 years. I feel like their game has some crossover, but they can certainly play together in my mind. 

 

Wouldn't hate it.

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't mind that it wasn't a WR. The league told us Troy Franklin is a day three prospect, I accept that. I mind that it was a safety. Taking a safety in the first 2 rounds was the main thing I didn't want Beane to do. It is almost equivalent to taking a RB that high.

 

Beane has a history of filling short term needs in the 2nd, and Torrence so far looks to be his only hit with that philsophy. I would have much rather taken OL. Kingsley Suamataia got snatched by the Chiefs the very next pick. Next year when Spencer Brown gets priced off the team we'll be scrambling for a RT replacement at the last second because we took the short term need at a less valuable position the year before.

 

And once again we have spent two top 100 picks on the defense. As of right now our offense is clearly worse off than it was last year. On paper Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter is our #2 outside WR. Our OL was remarkably healthy last year and doesn't appear to have much leeway for injury. But we have safety and defensive line depth!! This regime just can't help themselves, unfortunately.

 

While I understand your point, and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I'm not super high on Suamataia as a prospect. But if you wanna talk about the Yale kid then I certainly would have been on board with that pick. But I do think safety was by far the biggest weakness on the roster and they got a really good player there. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

My brother is convinced that the Bills are sort of evolving the passing game towards the 49ers scheme. Curtis Samuel is basically a poor man’s Deebo Samuel. He will be used to do a variety of things but isn’t a high volume target that Diggs was. Samuel is absolutely filling more of a Harty/McKenzie role than a Diggs role. He’s just a much better player than those 2. 
 

The biggest problem at the moment with copying the 49ers is that they have a guy that the Bills don’t. Ayiuk average 18 YPC last year!! For perspective, Tyreek Hill has never averaged more than 17 YPC. Ayiuk is an elite WR that commands attention and gets down the field. It would be like copying the Chiefs offense without having a tight end.

 

Know who had the highest yards per target of anyone with 45 or more targets?

 

Khalil Shakir. Aiyuk was 2nd. Don't sleep on Shakir...expecting big things this year and he is going to catch a lot of people sleeping 

[DuckyBoys]

Keon wins on contested catches and catches everything. something Josh has not had.  At worst he's a upgrade at #2 Gabe Davis .   Samuel separates extremely well  Think were fine.  Offense will be less focused on one guy with Stef out and to me harder to plan for.   Shakir is ascending and we certainly haven't seen the ceiling for Kincaid . Joe Brady knows how to get 4-5 guys target per game  Wont be bad to have a 160 target forced to one guy and depend on it and honestly we saw in the playoffs it was not sustainable 

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wouldn't hate it.

 

While I understand your point, and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I'm not super high on Suamataia as a prospect. But if you wanna talk about the Yale kid then I certainly would have been on board with that pick. But I do think safety was by far the biggest weakness on the roster and they got a really good player there. 

 

I'm definitely not tied to any one player. Suamataia, Rosengarten, Coleman, Wallace, Adams, Beebe, Amegadjie, Glaze, Goncalves, and Haynes all got selected over the next 20 picks after we took Bishop. So half of that next batch of players was OL. The league told us that's where the value was and we punted on it for a safety.

 

All along I have considered safety in the 2nd round as dangling bait and I hoped that Beane was smart enough to avoid falling into that trap, but instead he proudly admitted that he was trying to trade up for Bishop. So he didn't just take the bait, he was going out of his way to take it. Oh well. At least he didn't take Kam Kinchens, which was my realistic nightmare scenario. Bishop seems like he has a good chance to be a good player. I just don't agree with the value.

 

Edited April 27 by HappyDays

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I'm definitely not tied to any one player. Suamataia, Rosengarten, Coleman, Wallace, Adams, Beebe, Amegadjie, Glaze, Goncalves, and Haynes all got selected over the next 20 picks after we took Bishop. So almost half of that next batch of players was OL. The league told us that's where the value was and we punted on it for a safety.

 

All along I have considered safety in the 2nd round as dangling bait and I hoped that Beane was smart enough to avoid falling into that trap, but instead he proudly admitted that he was trying to trade up for Bishop. So he didn't just take the bait, he was going out of his way to take it. Oh well. At least he didn't take Kam Kinchens, which was my realistic nightmare scenario. Bishop seems like he has a good chance to be a good player. I just don't agree with the value.

This. I felt Round 4-5 was where safety made sense 

6 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

Keon wins on contested catches and catches everything. something Josh has not had.  At worst he's a upgrade at #2 Gabe Davis .   Samuel separates extremely well  Think were fine.  Offense will be less focused on one guy with Stef out and to me harder to plan for.   Shakir is ascending and we certainly haven't seen the ceiling for Kincaid . Joe Brady knows how to get 4-5 guys target per game  Wont be bad to have a 160 target forced to one guy and depend on it and honestly we saw in the playoffs it was not sustainable 

we’ve gotten worse on offense and Beane is OK with it until further notice

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Know who had the highest yards per target of anyone with 45 or more targets?

 

Khalil Shakir. Aiyuk was 2nd. Don't sleep on Shakir...expecting big things this year and he is going to catch a lot of people sleeping 

Not sleeping on him. I like him a lot. I hope that it translates with more volume and attention.

[Chandler#81]

Joe Marino chimes in

 

[Process]

Curious what you would have done at WR, @GunnerBill, given how it played out. I know you were high on Leggette, would you have stayed at 32 and taken him? Stayed at 28 and taken Worthy?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

Curious what you would have done at WR, @GunnerBill, given how it played out. I know you were high on Leggette, would you have stayed at 32 and taken him? Stayed at 28 and taken Worthy?

 

Personally I'd have drafted Legette at #28. I'm not saying they were wrong to not do that though. I just worry about Coleman for the reasons I set out. 

[aceman_16]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

But I still worry we lack a #1 WR

Outside of the first 3 WRs...the worry would have still been there.

[FLFan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sure. I am not saying for a minute Keon can't play. Of course he can. But I think someone else said it above he is a complimentary piece rather than a feature piece. To me if we had drafted him a year ago when we had a bona fide 1 and we were asking him to be an upgrade on Gabe I'd be very happy with that. That is what I think he is. I just worry we don't have a #1. 

I think this is spot on.  Coleman is an upgrade to Davis and that was clearly a need.  I was not expecting a number 1 with this pick, and never thought Legette was that guy but he might develop into it I suppose.  When they dumped Diggs they set up this dilemma.  Perhaps since my expectation was not to come out of this draft with a true number 1 unless they somehow magically traded up for a top 3 guy or got very lucky, it explains the lack of desperation I feel over the Coleman pick.  They were always going to have to approach this differently this year.  I think if they can manage to add a guy today with some speed and Z receiver developmental upside they should be OK for this year.  They may still sign a FA who can fill that role temporarily.  In the meantime, Coleman is an upgrade at the X spot for sure.