2024 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Two down, one to go. The second day of the 2024 NFL draft has been and gone. Interesting day overall. There was a run on defensive backs and defensive tackles early and a bit of a run on interior offensive line later. And despite there being a few picks that surprised the consensus help up pretty well. In the 100 picks made so far 79 of my top 100 ranked players have been selected. Let's get into who selected them and how they fit, starting of course with the Bills.

 

The Bills Picks...

We entered day 2 with the Bills on the clock overnight and speculation as to whether Brandon Beane might move down a 3rd time. But as things transpired the Bills entered the night with #33, #60 and #95 and they picked at those spots. At #33 they did address the wide receiver position with Florida State's Keon Coleman. It was not, I have to say, my favourite pick. I've been on a bit of a journey with Keon. I watched that LSU game in week one of the college football season and even with the two guys who went last night out there Keon Coleman stood out as the best receiver on the field. If you'd told me then that we would draft him with our first pick of the 2024 draft I'd have said we would have feared it meant Josh Allen had got injured in 2023 and we'd had a down year or we had paid a heavy trade up price. I caught a couple more FSU games in the fall too against Clemson and the U and while he didn't jump off the page the same way I came into the draft process with an indicative first round grade on him and as the 4th receiver. But the more tape I watched, the less I liked. This is NOT about his 40 time before anyone accuses me of that. My concerns about him were made public on this board long before the Combine and I think he is faster than the Combine time anyway. I'm willing to write that off. My concern is he does not separate on the outside. I know his college QB isn't the best but there are way too many snaps where Coleman just cannot shake free of coverage and it results in a lot of contested catches and he just doesn't come up with enough of them. When I see the NFL comparisons people throw out for him - Mike Williams and Drake London - that doesn't assuage any of my concerns because while they are both good NFL receivers both of those are also non separators and neither of them as a result are proper WR1s. The way I see it as an outside receiver Keon Coleman upgrades the Gabe Davis spot. I think he is a tick faster than Gabe despite the 40 time and I think he has better hands than Gabe - but he is your big contest catch guy not your dictate coverage #1 and as we know from Gabe the issue is those guys are a bit feast or famine week to week. Keon had 40% of his 658 yards in 2023 in two games. On the positive side.... I do love him with the ball in his hands (it is his best trait for me he IS a YAC guy) and I actually think he'd be really good as a big slot receiver. FSU used him in the slot close to a third of the time and it helps because he gets more free releases there against zone looks which means that he is able to attack the defensive backs exactly where he wants to and establish leverage early in the route. Outside because he can't break free of defenders he isn't always able to establish himself exactly where he wants to be on the field and that contributes to him not have ideal leverage and thus not winning as many of those contested balls as you'd like. Coleman was my 50th ranked player, the Bills took him at #33. He is still young (he doesn't turn 21 for a couple of weeks) so there might still be improvement to come. But I still worry we lack a #1 WR. 

 

Onto Cole Bishop which was by far and away my favourite pick of the night. He was the 13th best remaining by my board when the Bills took him and while I had more of a high third in terms of grade he went right in the region where I thought he should go in the draft. I listened to Brandon Beane this morning talk about him as being their type because he has some flexibility - he can play deep he can play in the box and he can cope with both man and zone coverage. While I think it is true that he can do both safety roles to me this is your Jordan Poyer replacement. He is at his best in the box where his instincts really show up and his ability to key in on his run fits and make the tackle are impressive. He played deep a bit more in 2023 than in 2022 and while I think he can survive there his timing doesn't quite seem as impressive when he is in that single high look as when he is closer to the line of scrimmage. That is not, however, to say this guy can't cover. Indeed I think the thing that is special about him is his ability to be a matchup weapon in coverage against slot receivers and tight ends. Brandon Beane talked about him telling them he used to get the better of Dalton Kincaid in practice at Utah and I can well believe it. The area where I think he day 1 comes in and upgrades the Bills is in that coverage in the short and intermediate middle of the field. I see him primarily being used the way Jordan Poyer was in 2023.... plays primarily as a box safety but when they go to dime looks on passing downs Bishop plays the dime and is asked to cover a guy 1 on 1 while Rapp comes in and plays the more conventional strong safety. I know some people are miffed that it was safety here and not a second receiver but Bishop makes a ton of sense and immediately upgrades the weakest starting unit on the roster. 

 

In round three the Bills snagged DeWayne Carter, the defensive tackle from Duke. I thought this was something of a reach. He was ranked #137 on my board with a late 4th round grade and the Bills took him at #95. I am not surprised they valued him higher though. He is one of those 5 year guys, slightly older prospect but a good RAS score and high character guy. And the Bills needed to get some long term options into this room. Aside from Ed Oliver all their other defensive tackles are older guys or 1 year rentals. The reason I was a bit lower on him is I think he actually regressed in 2023. Some of that might be on the way Duke used him, they were struggling to outside pressure and tried to use him off the edge in some package but he doesn't really have the body for that or the first step explosion you need. For all his athleticism he is a hustle player rather than a guy who uses that athleticism to win and while his tape was definitely better in 2022 when he was used more conventionally as a 3T the majority of snaps I see his ceiling as a rotational 3 tech who plays behind Ed Oliver. Carter is in theory big enough to play some 1T snaps but I don't like his technique against the run and I think his anchor would need to improve. To me this was something of a need pick. Think everyone knew the Bills were in for a defensive tackle at some point and the run early in the day had left the ice a little thin there and Buffalo simply thought waiting to round 4 and the board might be empty at that spot. 

 

And that is a bit my overall take on this Bills draft so far. It has felt, more than any other Beane draft I have to say, like a draft for need. I think by most consensus the three spots they have attacked here on day 2 were the three spots on the roster that needed some help. They can talk about following the board and pursuing value and I'm sure they did but this looks and feels like it was driven somewhat by being in a tight cap spot and having some positions where they simply had to restock having let vets leave the building, their two starting receivers, their two starting safeties and both of their rotational DTs from the past two seasons are gone. And lo and behold they are the first three spots that they draft for. Not a disaster of a day 2 but I am underwhelmed overall. 

 

What about the other 31...

It starts with Philadelphia and Howie Roseman who ended up remaking the weakest unit on their football team - the defensive backfield - with two of the best five defensive backs in the class in the first two rounds adding Cooper DeJean to Quinyon Mitchell on day 1. He then slid back in round 3 and took one of my sleeper guys Jalyx Hunt the toolsy edge rusher out Houston Christian at the end of the 3rd round and that is a guy I think has an intriguing skillset and in a heavy rotation front like the Eagles this kid can make an impact. I also like what the Rams did. Braden Fiske was my 33rd overall player and they snagged him at #39 to replace the interior pass rush they lost when a certain someone retired this offseason. When combined with their first rounder, and fellow former Seminole Jared Verse, the Rams have made moves to upgrade their pass rush that were much needed. Blake Corum is a nice pickup for them in round 3 as well. For all the Puka Nacu love and Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp etc the Rams is still an offense where the run game HAS to function or else the rest of what they do is difficult to accomplish. Arizona had a million and one picks so of course they picked up some decent players but they were another team who delved into my sleepers list snagging both Tip Reiman an underused athletic freak of a tight end who was mainly a blocker in college but has some potential and Elijah Jones who I think will be a starting corner either outside or in the nickel from Boston College. 

As for teams I didn't like day 2 for.... well the Falcons took some heat for their pick on night 1 but the trade up and reach for Ruke Orhorhoro at #35 was totally inexplicable. I know they had success with a Clemson defensive tackle in Grady Jarrett but he was picked much later. Orhorhoro was my 86th ranked player on my big board. I was probably a touch lower than the consensus on him but the Falcons were way, way higher. They redeemed themselves a bit with Bralen Trice who I think is a good scheme fit and very good value in round three but overall not sure how this draft has made their team better so far. In addition, the new era in New England feels a lot like the old era. Ja'Lynn Polk at #37 was too early for me he is a guy with a lot of commendable qualities but again natural separation isn't one of them and Caden Wallace the offensive tackle out of Penn State was a day 3 guy to my eye and they selected him early 3rd round. Typical high floor but lower ceiling types that Belichick has been drafting for the past decade. On the flip side of the AFC East divide the Dolphins only had one pick on day two because of their forfeited 3rd rounder but they spent it wisely on Patrick Paul the toolsy left tackle out of Houston. Sitting for a year behind Terrion Armstead and then taking over as the starter is the perfect spot for him. That was a really smart pick. 

 

What's left?

I had watched enough tape to grade and put on my board 140 players in this class. As we enter day three 90 of them have been selected and exactly 50 of them remain. The biggest mystery is what is happening with Troy Franklin. I was never as high on him as some here were but he was a low 2nd round grade on my board. Him still being out there is odd to me. It must be more than just an awful showing at the Combine. I wonder if there is a medical red flag that hasn't been reported. I'm equally baffled by Ja'Tavion Sanders still being there. He was the consensus tight end two in the class and if you'd told me my guy Tip would go ahead of him I'd not have believed you. I know he is a little small but as a flex tight end he has a ton of value catching passes to my mind. I also have two more second round grades still remaining in DJ and TJ the corners from Auburn and Iowa State. There were obvious knocks on both of them - speed for TJ and size for DJ - but both have good tape and I am a tad surprised they remain available.

 

Anyway, my best 15 remaining are listed below:

 

1. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

2. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

3. DJ James, CB, Auburn

4. TJ Tampa, CB, Iowa State

5. Javon Baker, WR, UCF

6. Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State

7. Jeremiah Trotter, LB, Clemson

8. Christian Mahogany, IOL, Boston College

9. Brandon Dorlus, DT, Oregon

10. Jalen Wright, RB, Tennessee

11. Mason McCormick, IOL, South Dakota State

12. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech

13. Tez Walker, WR, UNC

14. Kris Abrams-Draine, CB, Missouri

15. Austin Booker, EDGE, Kansas

 

Targets for the Bills at #128 (although I expect them to try and move up) I think another receiver, an interior offensive lineman and a running back are all in play but Austin Booker if he makes it to them will be of interest too I'd expect. Enjoy Day 3 folks.... and the usual joy of picks being made by people dressed in ridiculous costumes from all corners of the globe. I'll be back to put a bow on it all tomorrow. 

Edited April 27 by GunnerBill

[SirAndrew]

Great analysis as usual. This draft just isn’t setting well with me. Something about it feels very much like a drought era draft. 

[DCOrange]

Okay our Coleman vs. Legette debates feel a lot more real now @GunnerBill

[NeverOutNick]

100% agree on all 3 of your evals, especially Coleman. Really hope we get a separator like Franklin or Walker day 3. Thanks @GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

Just now, DCOrange said:

Okay our Coleman vs. Legette debates feel a lot more real now @GunnerBill

 

Im sure Keon will put up numbers. He has Josh Allen and Josh Allen has barely anyone else to throw to. 

 

But man... Coleman, Samuel and Shakir. If our aim at the start of the offseason was to upgrade the receiving corps we have gone a funny way about it.

[Kirby Jackson]

Great stuff Gunner. I’m a little higher on Carter than you seem to be. I felt that his senior bowl showing was more indicative of the player that he can be than playing with a bunch of future mechanical engineers at Duke. He is powerful and can get low. To me, he can be a productive rotational guy day 1 and play on important passing downs. 
 

Great summary on Bishop too. I like the player and the fit. I think that the Bills will be okay at safety now. 
 

I didn’t love the Coleman pick either. He feels like more of a role player than “the guy.” The Bills seem to be replicating the 49ers passing game but without the field stretcher in Ayiuk (at least he isn’t a Bill yet). Franklin and Baker are guys that I like moving forward. Jacob Cowing is another guy that I would like a little later if Franklin and Baker are gone. 

[DCOrange]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Im sure Keon will put up numbers. He has Josh Allen and Josh Allen has barely anyone else to throw to. 

 

But man... Coleman, Samuel and Shakir. If our aim at the start of the offseason was to upgrade the receiving corps we have gone a funny way about it.

It's um...a different group of receivers that's for sure lol.

 

Definitely hoping we add more today. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing that we seem to be going with a more balanced target distribution. We'll see if one of these guys turns into a dependable go-to option when things get tight though. I like all of our receiving targets (save Knox who I have never liked) but aside from Kincaid, I don't think any of them are likely to really break out this year. They all have potential though.

Edited April 27 by DCOrange

[Heitz]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Im sure Keon will put up numbers. He has Josh Allen and Josh Allen has barely anyone else to throw to. 

 

But man... Coleman, Samuel and Shakir. If our aim at the start of the offseason was to upgrade the receiving corps we have gone a funny way about it.

Yew we need more in the WR room, but don’t discount Kincaid and (to a lesser extent) Knox. 👍

[DJB]

Bang on analysis. I like the Bishop pick but man to me the Bills have bungled that draft 

[RobbRiddick]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Im sure Keon will put up numbers. He has Josh Allen and Josh Allen has barely anyone else to throw to. 

 

But man... Coleman, Samuel and Shakir. If our aim at the start of the offseason was to upgrade the receiving corps we have gone a funny way about it.

It doesn't look too exciting on paper but we have Kincaid of course who I think by season's end had become Josh's favorite target. He should be far better in year 2. Also think we'll have more throws to RBs this season.

 

I'm not massively worried but I would like to see a field stretcher get added today at some point, just someone capable of taking the top off and keeping the defense honest

[Big Turk]

If we wanted a #1 the only ones that were guarantees were the top 3. Everyone after that is a crap shoot. None of them are coming in as day 1 starters as the #1 WR.

 

Coleman is a big target, makes crazy catches in traffic and is a very good run blocker, something the Bills clearly value. Essentially he fills the Gabe Davis role with more upside and better hands.

Edited April 27 by Big Turk

[No_Matter_What]

It all comes down to Coleman.

 

We had a chance to choose from Worthy, Legette, Mitchell, McConkey, Pearsall, Coleman and to a lesser extent Thomas.

 

We chose Coleman. Not many here like it but that is what the Bills done after discussing it 24/7 last 3 months. We can only hope they did the right thing.

[SectionC3]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

If we wanted a #1 the only ones that were guarantees were the top 3. Everyone after that is a crap shoot. None of them are coming in as day 1 starters as the #1 WR.

 

This.  I'll qualify it by saying that maybe it was possible to convert some of the draft capital into a veteran upgrade at the position.  But otherwise it's a guessing game.  

 

The Coleman pick has grown on me.  I'd still like them to add another body to the WR room, if for no other reason that it may increase the odds that they hit on a WR pick this year. 

[LEBills]

46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And that is a bit my overall take on this Bills draft so far. It has felt, more than any other Beane draft I have to say, like a draft for need. I think by most consensus the three spots they have attacked here on day 2 were the three spots on the roster that needed some help. They can talk about following the board and pursuing value and I'm sure they did but this looks and feels like it was driven somewhat by being in a tight cap spot and having some positions where they simply had to restock having let vets leave the building, their two starting receivers, their two starting safeties and both of their rotational DTs from the past two seasons are gone. And lo and behold they are the first three spots that they draft for. Not a disaster of a day 2 but I am underwhelmed overall. 

 

Underwhelmed is the right word. I like Keon, but feel more than most of the receivers he needs more development. The talent is there but he is very young thus inconsistent. That we left day 1 and 2 with him being the only offensive help for Josh I feel is putting too much on him and eventually Josh to pick up the slack.

 

While I like Bishop and even Carter as players in a vacuum - and Bishop likely will be very good in our defense - I think adding more talent at WR, OL or even RB would have made me feel better about the teams support of Josh. I’m sure we will add more offensive players on day 3 but until then underwhelmed is the right word.

[Big Turk]

15 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

It all comes down to Coleman.

 

We had a chance to choose from Worthy, Legette, Mitchell, McConkey, Pearsall, Coleman and to a lesser extent Thomas.

 

We chose Coleman. Not many here like it but that is what the Bills done after discussing it 24/7 last 3 months. We can only hope they did the right thing.

 

The one thing that stands out is that Coleman reached the top speed of any WR in the last 2 years in the gauntlet drill at 20.36 mph. 

 

That's situational speed which is more important than 40 times. 40 times are so dependant on your start and with bigger guys sometimes they don't have the right technique. That can cost them .1-.2 seconds right there.

 

Look at Josh Allen...he didn't have a great 40 time but he runs away from DBs in the open field. The dude is fast...not just fast for a big QB, fast period.

 

UPDATE:

 

Just as I thought... Coleman's technique coming out of the starting blocks is among the worst I've ever seen. He almost stands straight up and kind of lunges which slows him down and almost gives him a weird hitch before he gets going.

 

You are supposed to stay low and drive your lower body coming out of the blocks and Coleman doesn't do this at all...

 

If you want to see terrible technique on how to run a 40, watch this video over and over again...

 

 

 

 

Now, compare that to Xavier Worthy and watch how he basically uses the start to accelerate thru to an upright position gaining speed...Coleman LOSES speed while going upright and has to restart from zero almost after 2 steps while Worthy is already halfway to top speed...

 

 

Edited April 27 by Big Turk

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The one thing that stands out is that Coleman reached the top speed of any WR in the last 2 years in the gauntlet drill at 20.36 mph. 

 

That's situational speed which is more important than 40 times.

 

That isn't a surprise because he looks at his fastest to me ball in hand dodging traffic. My worry is not about how he timed or tested. It is about the lack of separation outside on the film. 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That isn't a surprise because he looks at his fastest to me ball in hand dodging traffic. My worry is not about how he timed or tested. It is about the lack of separation outside on the film. 

 

That's fair but if they plan on using him down on fade routes and as a big Red Zone target, that wouldn't be too important since he would be going up to get it like he was back playing basketball and boxing out the DB.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's fair but if they plan on using him down on fade routes and as a big Red Zone target, that wouldn't be too important since he would be going up to get it like he was back playing basketball and boxing out the DB.

 

Sure. I am not saying for a minute Keon can't play. Of course he can. But I think someone else said it above he is a complimentary piece rather than a feature piece. To me if we had drafted him a year ago when we had a bona fide 1 and we were asking him to be an upgrade on Gabe I'd be very happy with that. That is what I think he is. I just worry we don't have a #1. 

[FireChans]

If this is the “offensive overhaul youth movement” Brandon Beane envisioned when he traded Diggs, I think he should be fired. 

 

That’s my debrief. 

[TFBillsfan]

Along with the Bears and Philly, I’ve liked what Pittsburgh has done. Thus far the Bills draft feels meh for me thus far. Hopeful Beane is aggressive in round four and goes and gets the players they like. Braelon Edwards, RB, Wisconsin would be a nice youthful power back to add to the offense. Still need to look at WR, IOL, CB and P today.