Deep dive on 2024 WR class - Beane’s analysis is in line with this

[Big Blitz]

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/pre-nfl-draft-rookie-wr-dynasty-rankings

 

Edited April 26 by Big Blitz

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I think we would all be thrilled to land Franklin anywhere in the second round.

[The Frankish Reich]

23 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

Thanks. Great summary!

[Rad Likes The Bills]

ITS GOING TO BE FRANKLIN🦆

[zevo]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Thanks. Great summary!

 

27 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

Great breakdown. I def think they are targeting Franklin 

[SoonerBillsFan]

26 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

When you look at analytics that matter, Franklin is high on most lists. If he is who Buffalo wants then use #33 and grab him.  There is going to be A run on WR's starting top of 2nd round.

[Logic]

Thanks for this.

Putting aside my irritation over trading with the Chiefs in general...

I said earlier this draft season that Troy Franklin might be the 4th or 5th best WR in this class, and seems criminally underrated. He had a good season as a sophomore and then a REALLY good season as a SR. The numbers you provide back up the idea that he's very underrated and under-discussed.

If the Bills wind up with Franklin, I'll be very pleased. I like him worlds better than McConkey or Mitchell.

Here's hoping...

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

How concerned should we be with Franklin's weight? He's 176 and three inches taller than Xavier Worthy. 

[Logic]

 

[Mat68]

I think most agreed after Top 3 wrs rest are all similar graded players.  5 people have 5 different orders of players.  Wr picked in rd 2 is likley similarly graded or graded higher than the players selected at 28 and 32.  They were favorites but both have lots of questions.  This is the meat of the wr class.  Rds 2 and 3 is the bulk of the class.  

 

 I also heard some nuggets that over 100 draft-able prospects went back to college.   Due to NIL they would be better going back to school instead of being late picks.  With transfer portal and NIL starters make about the same as a low pick but may better their position for next year.  I dont think Beane drafts a player after 160.  Trading those late picks for earlier ones is just as important as getting that 3rd.  I suspect Buffalo have 160ish draft grades.  Rest are priorty FAs.   I suspect those late picks are moved today or early tomorrow. 
 

Buffalo is going value.  I suspect Dejean or Newton. I lean Newton because of a higher position of value vs Saftey.  Than a combo of 2 wrs with the other day 2 picks.  Maybe im wrong and they love Polk, Mcconkey, Mitchell and take them at 33.   These are the same players discussed for weeks at 28 still available now plus a 3rd and multiple late picks improved by 40 spots. 

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

How concerned should we be with Franklin's weight? He's 176 and three inches taller than Xavier Worthy. 

That's the concern, together with the poor combine performance. 

[dave mcbride]

55 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And my hunch is we want Franklin.  Anyway:
 

 

On the class…..

 

The best? Almost certainly not.

 

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

 

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

 

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

 

What metrics are actually predictive at the WR position? Basically, all of the stats I’m using in this article. Generally, the more often a stat is referenced (such as career YPRR), the more predictive it is.
 

 

Worthy:

 

Without getting too deep into the weeds here (we’ll save that for the footnotes), I’ll just say that… Worthy’s 22.8 BMI ranks the 10th-lowest of any WR since at least 2000. Among the 45 lightest WRs, DeVonta Smith (24.1)[16] is the only one to post a 1,000-yard season in the NFL. So, even if the NFL appears to care less about low-weight / thin-frame WRs in recent years[17], the overall track record is pretty abhorrent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s much easier to argue that Franklin has no worse than the fourth-best production profile in this class than to argue that he’s the WR9

 

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/pre-nfl-draft-rookie-wr-dynasty-rankings

 

Also interesting to note that the Bills possess two players who are tied at 13th for the fastest 40 times ever! 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Yeah, Franklin was always in play. People did as they often do and talked themselves into many others due to personal preference and the latest gossip. 

 

They did some work on Roman Wilson as well FWIW. He may be the fallback option or the second of a double dip.

Edited April 26 by BuffaloBillyG

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yeah, Franklin was always in play. People did as they often do and talked themselves into many others due to personal preference and the latest gossip. 

 

They did some work on Raman Wilson as well FWIW. He may be the fallback option or the second of a double dip.

If Franklin is the guy they should just take him with 33. No need to get too cute and risk NE taking him. NE just drafted a potential franchise QB and they have no receivers, after all.

[MJS]

Ladd McConkey is high on those lists as well. I'd be fine with either one.

[Logic]

Just now, MJS said:

Ladd McConkey is high on those lists as well. I'd be fine with either one.

I understand there's more to a prospect's profile than college production, and I understand that McConkey was in a crowded receiver room, but...

Taking a look at the numbers McConkey posted at Georgia certainly doesn't inspire much confidence that he can be an NFL WR1. 

Maybe some big McConkey fan here can explain to me what's so special about him.

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

If Franklin is the guy they should just take him with 33. No need to get too cute and risk NE taking him. NE just drafted a potential franchise QB and they have no receivers, after all.

I agree with that...unless they have Franklin and Wilson or possibly McConkey grades close enough that it doesn't matter to them which they get. Then I can see another small drop back maybe to Washington's spot. 

 

And that's if they pick a WR early tonight at all. As long as DeJean is there when the Bills pick it's a worry.

[TheBeaneBandit]

Josh Allen likes Coleman too.....duck and runs😂😆🤣.

[The Frankish Reich]

27 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

How concerned should we be with Franklin's weight? He's 176 and three inches taller than Xavier Worthy. 

I'm no scout, but this reminds me of what we see when MLB scouts talk about "projectability." Worthy just looks like a guy who will always be skinny, not the guy who may fill out and gain strength/weight as he matures. Franklin seems to have more of a projectable frame. So if they were pitching prospects, I think we'd see something like "Franklin has the frame to fill out and add 2-3 mph to his fastball."

[2003Contenders]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

If Franklin is the guy they should just take him with 33. No need to get too cute and risk NE taking him. NE just drafted a potential franchise QB and they have no receivers, after all.

I agree -- the only caveat I have is that if there is as great of demand for other teams to move up to #33 as Beane claims, he would be hard-pressed to avoid trading down if an offer comes in that is too good to refuse.