Buffalo Bills: Good, Not Great

[NORWOODS FOOT]

“If you think you can do better, you should be a GM!” 
 

Right. And if you don’t like the state of the country, you should be president…

 

“You’re being dramatic!”

 

Cool.

 

This is how I’m a fan of the Bills, and I’m not sorry. 😂 

 

Continuing on…
 

The Bills may never win a Super Bowl, but that’s the standard that I’m comfortable holding them to. In my mind, for a GM/coach to be truly successful here during their tenure they need to win at least one championship.

 

This is the NFL, and the margins are razor thin. We keep being edged out by Kansas City. And I don’t think it’s just because they’re lucky. I don’t even think it’s just because of Mahomes. I think it’s for a lot of reasons. And I think I can identify one of the main ones.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs evaluate players in a fundamentally different way than the Bills front office. And then they coach and scheme using those players differently as well.

 

Simply put, the Kansas City Chiefs value special traits higher than we do, and they prioritize using those traits in schemes that creatively leverage and amplify their effect.

 

Let’s dissect the Xavier Worthy pick as the latest example.

 

Xavier Worthy is the fastest player in the NFL. When Xavier Worthy runs a go route he is going to be faster than any man trying to cover him. That puts a huge amount of stress on a defense because he can beat his man on any given play. And it doesn’t matter if he catches or drops the pass, the defense still has to chase him down the field.

 

This is also going to require that the safety on his side of the field keeps an eye on him and takes a deeper drop if he runs a go route or even a deep post.

 

He’s going to open up the rest of the field for all of the other skill position players. His presence alone is going to force NFL defenses to skew their coverage in a way that they don’t have to nearly any other week.
 

If a defense wants to try to counter these wider spaces, they’re going to have to drop linebackers further into coverage. If you have a good running game, and even better a running quarterback, you’re going to have bigger chunk plays, and more success.

 

It doesn’t matter that Xavier Worthy is not a perfect prospect. What matters is that he’s going to put every single defense he goes up against in a bind, and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going to exploit the hell out of it.
 

And this could’ve been our advantage. Stretching a defense’s backend coverage would have had a positive effect for every single one of our skill position players. Even if we have less than optimal players, they would’ve had more space to work with. And it’s this kind of strategic thinking that the Chiefs have shown time and time again to be masters of. 
 

Can you imagine the strain it would’ve put on a defense to have the fastest man in the NFL paired with the quarterback with the strongest arm in the NFL. It would’ve been imposing a nightmare on other teams. Instead of doing that we gave Kansas City that power.

 

I’d love to be wrong about all of this. But I keep watching Buffalo beat their head against the same old walls and I think this philosophical schematic issue is one of the reasons why.

 

This whole Xavier Worthy trade situation puts the issue in high definition. Beane and McDermott looked at this player and said no thank you let’s trade down. Andy Reid looked at this player and says I have to have him we’re trading up. Who are you gonna bet on making the better call?
 

In my opinion this is one of the main reasons that we’re stuck where we are.

 

 

Edited April 26 by NORWOODS FOOT

[Sweats]

Alright, i'm weighing in on this.....

 

You're not wrong with what you're saying about Worthy. Reid is going to scheme the hell out of him and force D's into some bad decisions and positions, we all know that. Now, think of an O with Mahomo, Kelce, Pacheco, Worthy, etc......who does the D cover? They have added a weapon that will make it hard to defend on every square inch of the field and we have to hope that our HC can figure it out.

 

I know that right now it feels like KC is our daddy, however, let's let the rest of the draft play out and see what we're left with, is all i'm saying.

[djp14150]

You realize some run better without equip on, while others with equip on run faster than him.

 

what about all those supposedly dumb GMs thst passed him over if he’s that special……

Edited April 26 by djp14150

[NORWOODS FOOT]

I think Beane is a A- general manager. He’s quite excellent in many ways. But there is a margin of difference between how he constructs this team and how McDermott coaches it and what Andy Reid is doing. And that’s what I’m interested in. What is that difference and why does it seem, so decisive and leading to these outcomes?

Edited April 26 by NORWOODS FOOT

[JGMcD2]

Considering Andy Reid has struggled to find a productive WR in KC outside of Tyreek Hill, I’m going to say I don’t care. 

 

Also, Worthy may have the fastest 40 time, but it doesn’t guarantee he plays fast. He’s going to get beat to hell… he’s not Tyreek. Tyreek’s speed isn’t what makes him so unique - despite everyone wanting to boil it down to that. 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

1 minute ago, djp14150 said:

You realize some run better without equip on, while others with equip on run faster than him.

 

what about all those supposedly dumb GMs thst passed him over if he’s that special……

A fair point. But his speed is special. And if you prepared to leverage it schematically, it can have a huge effect on the rest of your offense. That’s my projection anyway, and I’m gonna be watching to see if that’s how it actually plays out.

[Brandon]

We'll see over the next few years,  but if I'm just looking for a guy to run off the deep coverage, I like Franklin better than Worthy.  BTJ was the best pure deep threat of the top prospects,  but Franklin was damn close from what I saw.  I have significant concerns about AD Mitchell,  but he's still available.   And I like McConkey in that role as well,  though I do think he's a step down from those.  

[NORWOODS FOOT]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

We'll see over the next few years,  but if I'm just looking for a guy to run off the deep coverage, I like Franklin better than Worthy.  BTJ was the best pure deep threat of the top prospects,  but Franklin was damn close from what I saw.  I have significant concerns about AD Mitchell,  but he's still available.   And I like McConkey in that role as well,  though I do think he's a step down from those.  

i’ve heard about some nebulous character concerns with AD Mitchell, and that he has diabetes type one and does not manage it well.

 

I hope that if we select one of the other two guys, you mentioned, they can help stretch that spacing for us. Hell, maybe Franklin will end up being able to do it better than worthy. That would be fantastic and I’d be happy to eat my words.

[RiotAct]

I hope you’re wrong, but I have a sinking feeling you’re going to be right about how they use Worthy.

[nedboy7]

Not much correlation between elite speed and production according to Marino. 

[djp14150]

1 minute ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

A fair point. But his speed is special. And if you prepared to leverage it schematically, it can have a huge effect on the rest of your offense. That’s my projection anyway, and I’m gonna be watching to see if that’s how it actually plays out.

it’s not hard to get 4.4 and under speed.

 

IIRC buffalo signed KJ Hamler who has 4.4 speed.

[NORWOODS FOOT]

Just now, nedboy7 said:

Not much correlation between elite speed and production according to Marino. 

that’s what I find so intriguing about Xavier Worthy. I think his production may not show up as much in the stat sheet at least not under his own name.

[nedboy7]

2 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

that’s what I find so intriguing about Xavier Worthy. I think his production may not show up as much in the stat sheet at least not under his own name.

He will be their own special Gabe. 

Edited April 26 by nedboy7

[Brandon]

Just now, NORWOODS FOOT said:

i’ve heard about some nebulous character concerns with AD Mitchell, and that he has diabetes type one and does not manage it well.

 

I hope that if we select one of the other two guys, you mentioned, they can help stretch that spacing for us. Hell, maybe Franklin will end up being able to do it better than worthy. That would be fantastic and I’d be happy to eat my words.

 

My gut feeling as of this morning is Franklin/McConkey with the 1st 2nd round pick to be the versatile, all-around guy,  then Devontez Walker with one of the remaining picks.  

[Cray51]

If worthy makes such an impact, he isn’t the pick at 28, he is going top 10.  Frankly the guy can run fast at the combine.  I don’t see the separation on film, I don’t see plus hands.  They will scheme him all over the field I’m sure, but worthy was not a top 40 prospect in this draft for me.

[Dillenger4]

22 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

“If you think you can do better, you should be a GM!” 
 

Right. And if you don’t like the state of the country, you should be president…

 

“You’re being dramatic!”

 

Cool.

 

This is how I’m a fan of the Bills, and I’m not sorry. 😂 

 

Continuing on…
 

The Bills may never win a Super Bowl, but that’s the standard that I’m comfortable holding them to. In my mind, for a GM/coach to be truly successful here during their tenure they need to win at least one championship.

 

This is the NFL, and the margins are razor thin. We keep being edged out by Kansas City. And I don’t think it’s just because they’re lucky. I don’t even think it’s just because of Mahomes. I think it’s for a lot of reasons. And I think I can identify one of the main ones.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs evaluate players in a fundamentally different way than the Bills front office. And then they coach and scheme using those players differently as well.

 

Simply put, the Kansas City Chiefs value special traits higher than we do, and they prioritize using those traits in schemes that creatively leverage and amplify their effect.

 

Let’s dissect the Xavier Worthy pick as the latest example.

 

Xavier Worthy is the fastest player in the NFL. When Xavier Worthy runs a go route he is going to be faster than any man trying to cover him. That puts a huge amount of stress on a defense because he can beat his man on any given play. And it doesn’t matter if he catches or drops the pass, the defense still has to chase him down the field.

 

This is also going to require that the safety on his side of the field keeps an eye on him and takes a deeper drop if he runs a go route or even a deep post.

 

He’s going to open up the rest of the field for all of the other skill position players. His presence alone is going to force NFL defenses to skew their coverage in a way that they don’t have to nearly any other week.
 

If a defense wants to try to counter these wider spaces, they’re going to have to drop linebackers further into coverage. If you have a good running game, and even better a running quarterback, you’re going to have bigger chunk plays, and more success.

 

It doesn’t matter that Xavier Worthy is not a perfect prospect. What matters is that he’s going to put every single defense he goes up against in a bind, and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going to exploit the hell out of it.
 

And this could’ve been our advantage. Stretching a defense’s backend coverage would have had a positive effect for every single one of our skill position players. Even if we have less than optimal players, they would’ve had more space to work with. And it’s this kind of strategic thinking that the Chiefs have shown time and time again to be masters of. 
 

Can you imagine the strain it would’ve put on a defense to have the fastest man in the NFL paired with the quarterback with the strongest arm in the NFL. It would’ve been imposing a nightmare on other teams. Instead of doing that we gave Kansas City that power.

 

I’d love to be wrong about all of this. But I keep watching Buffalo beat their head against the same old walls and I think this philosophical schematic issue is one of the reasons why.

 

This whole Xavier Worthy trade situation puts the issue in high definition. Beane and McDermott looked at this player and said no thank you let’s trade down. Andy Reid looked at this player and says I have to have him we’re trading up. Who are you gonna bet on making the better call?
 

In my opinion this is one of the main reasons that we’re stuck where we are.

 

 

WTF are you crying about?!?? He is known to get handled at the line of scrimmage. He is small and light. Fast, yes for sure. But he is bumped easily and can be covered. Also not a great route tree runner. That's his jam. We fleeced the Chefs. Now if we can manage to get the deal done with SF for Ayouk (two 2nr round pix) will you be happy. Cause its happening.

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

A fair point. But his speed is special. And if you prepared to leverage it schematically, it can have a huge effect on the rest of your offense. That’s my projection anyway, and I’m gonna be watching to see if that’s how it actually plays out.

Same with John Ross, but he never amounted to anything in the NFL. Speed is not everything. And to weigh only 165 lbs is a big obstacle to overcome.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

it’s not hard to get 4.4 and under speed.

 

IIRC buffalo signed KJ Hamler who has 4.4 speed.

 

They already signed hollywood brown.  MVS before that.  Toney.  Hardman.  All of these guys run in the 4.3's.  They drafted him because they think he is better at WR than any of them, in addition to superior speed.  But lets not act like they were slow or something.  

[HOUSE]

And I thought this morning would be boring 

[Bangarang]

People also thought Reid was going to get a ton of production out of Kadarius Toney. You just never know.