2024 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Interesting. I see it differently on Franklin (and I'm not as high on him as you) in that I think he might be their type. There is some similarity for me in him and Jordan Addison last years, slight frame, speed, separates even vs man coverage. There are some differences too - Addison's hands are better and he is a much better and more developed route runner, but Franklin can be used more vertically. But they loved Addison and I was told in no uncertain terms if he made it to them he was the pick. I dunno. It's all tea leaf reading at this stage but I think Franklin is their guy. They have done a lot of work with him, met him three times. 

 

I like your idea of trading down once more nor more than 3 or max 4 spots UNLESS their guy is AD Mitchell but I don't think it is. I think if the Bills were into Mitchell, DeJean or McKinstry they'd have pulled the trigger on them last night. All 3 are guys who could be the consensus have gone in the late first area. If any of those are your guy you don't mess about you turn the card in. Which is another thing that makes me think Franklin.... if he is who you have your eye on the risk in the two trades last night was negligible. 

 

Only 7 more hours to wait  

I am definitely assuming Franklin at this point. I am a little averse to trading down because I don't want to risk it, but I'm not totally opposed. The teams needing WRs between 33 and 40 are the Chargers, the Pats, maybe Washington, and maybe TN. But the Pats also don't have a left tackle, which strikes me as a problem. And the Chargers defense was terrible last year. I can see them being all in on Dejean. So maybe we can move down a little and still get Franklin. At a certain point, though, they won't need any more picks. They have 6 between 33 and 144 and 8 between 33 and 163. After that, I assume that the talent falls off a cliff. Anyway, 8 picks is already a lot, so they need to start taking actual players.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I don't know if I see Beane punting on WRs in round 1 to take 2 in round 2.

 

It just makes sense. We lost 4 WRs - Diggs, Davis, Harty, Sherfield. Harty was replaced by Samuel, Sherfield was replaced by Hollins (in competition with Shorter). Our #1 and #2 outside WRs are still missing.

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

Worst Pick

I hate what the Raiders did. Hate it. Okay, they were probably planning to take Penix, thought they were safe to wait until #13 for him and then wham the Falcons gazump them. But for a team with so many major holes to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight is just baffling to me. They have basically one proven player on their offensive line in Kolton Miller but refused to take advantage of the excellent tackle class. Their starting corners are Jack Jones who even Bill Belichick couldn't turn into a serviceable DB and was picked up off waivers from New England and a guy name Jakorian Bennett (no? me neither) and yet they pass on Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. Hell I think wide receiver would have been a luxury pick but at least there you can say well their #1 in Devante Adams turns 32 during next season and might be coming to the end. This is nothing against Brock Bowers. In the 11 seasons I have been doing this he became only the third tight end I had a true 1st round grade on. He is a good player. I wish him well. But for a team with holes at the spots that most impact you winning and losing football games to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight end when the board was as it was? Speechless. Dumb, dumb move. 

 

 

Kinda wild considering they spent a premium pick on Mayer just last season.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

Kinda wild considering they spent a premium pick on Mayer just last season.

 

Hadn't even thought about that. Good point. He was a 2nd wasn't he? Jesus what an awful franchise. 

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Interesting. I see it differently on Franklin (and I'm not as high on him as you) in that I think he might be their type. There is some similarity for me in him and Jordan Addison last years, slight frame, speed, separates even vs man coverage. There are some differences too - Addison's hands are better and he is a much better and more developed route runner, but Franklin can be used more vertically. But they loved Addison and I was told in no uncertain terms if he made it to them he was the pick. I dunno. It's all tea leaf reading at this stage but I think Franklin is their guy. They have done a lot of work with him, met him three times. 

 

I like your idea of trading down once more nor more than 3 or max 4 spots UNLESS their guy is AD Mitchell but I don't think it is. I think if the Bills were into Mitchell, DeJean or McKinstry they'd have pulled the trigger on them last night. All 3 are guys who could be the consensus have gone in the late first area. If any of those are your guy you don't mess about you turn the card in. Which is another thing that makes me think Franklin.... if he is who you have your eye on the risk in the two trades last night was negligible. 

 

Only 7 more hours to wait  

Yep, I think that all makes sense. You know I'd be very happy if Franklin is the choice haha. Hope I was on the right side of the Legette debate, but I feel a little relieved knowing we're almost certainly taking a WR today and two of the WRs that worried me the most are now off the board for us.

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

Kinda wild considering they spent a premium pick on Mayer just last season.

Was my first thought when it happened too. I wish we knew what their QB board looked like. Kinda wonder if the only one they had real interest in was Daniels and once Washington made it clear he was their guy, they just decided to try to add weapons any way they could.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

Yep, I think that all makes sense. You know I'd be very happy if Franklin is the choice haha. Hope I was on the right side of the Legette debate, but I feel a little relieved knowing we're almost certainly taking a WR today and two of the WRs that worried me the most are now off the board for us.

 

If Carolina can get the Quarterback working Legette will eat. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hadn't even thought about that. Good point. He was a 2nd wasn't he? Jesus what an awful franchise. 

#35 overall

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I am definitely assuming Franklin at this point. I am a little averse to trading down because I don't want to risk it, but I'm not totally opposed. The teams needing WRs between 33 and 40 are the Chargers, the Pats, maybe Washington, and maybe TN. But the Pats also don't have a left tackle, which strikes me as a problem. And the Chargers defense was terrible last year. I can see them being all in on Dejean. So maybe we can move down a little and still get Franklin. At a certain point, though, they won't need any more picks. They have 6 between 33 and 144 and 8 between 33 and 163. After that, I assume that the talent falls off a cliff. Anyway, 8 picks is already a lot, so they need to start taking actual players.

 

Yeah I don't want to trade down again. Stick and pick the best WR on your board. We don't need more picks. If anything we need to part with some of our day three picks. No way we are making four picks in R5. I expect us to draft two players by #55, pick another player in the mid-80s(ish), and ultimately make something like four total picks on day three. Last year we picked 6 players so picking 7 this year sounds about right, and we have 10 total picks to use to move up the board and make sure we get guys that we like.

 

Edited April 26 by HappyDays

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah I'm good on trading down again. Stick and pick the best WR on your board. We don't need more picks. If anything we need to part with some of our day three picks. No way we are making four picks in R5. I expect us to draft two players by #55, pick another player in the mid- 80s(ish), and ultimately make something like four total picks on day three. Last year we picked 6 players so picking 7 this year sounds about right, and we have 10 total picks to use to make sure we get guys that we like.

I assume you mean "good on not trading down again"?

[Cash]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah I don't want to trade down again. Stick and pick the best WR on your board. We don't need more picks. If anything we need to part with some of our day three picks. No way we are making four picks in R5. I expect us to draft two players by #55, pick another player in the mid-80s(ish), and ultimately make something like four total picks on day three. Last year we picked 6 players so picking 7 this year sounds about right, and we have 10 total picks to use to move up the board and make sure we get guys that we like.

 

 

Agree Beane will be trading up at some point, quite possibly tonight. Could be from 60 (if we don’t go WR at 33, I’d almost bank on this). Could be from 95. Maybe even trade up from the 4th into the end of the 3rd? I don’t know the comp values well enough to say if that’s plausible; it might not be. 
 

Based on his presser, I think Beane is going to seriously listen to offers for 33. But I also think he won’t take any unless it’s a significant overpay. That’s what I hope, at least. 
 

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I assume you mean "good on not trading down again"?

I think it’s like, “I’ve had enough of this, thanks. I’m good.”

[dpberr]

I think Atlanta's move for Penix was 100% stupid.  That move puts a lot of misplaced faith IMO in Raheem Morris (and his 17-31 head coaching record) being there even two years from now. 

 

 

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If Carolina can get the Quarterback working Legette will eat. 

He went to about the worst possible situation possible. QB who looks like a bust, he’ll be asked to be the # 1 immediately. His only saving grace is if Canales can turn around Young 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

He went to about the worst possible situation possible. QB who looks like a bust, he’ll be asked to be the # 1 immediately. His only saving grace is if Canales can turn around Young 

 

Yea. Every WR needs a Quarterback to throw them the ball ultimately. Let's see what Carolina looks like this year. I don't know much about Canales but I accurately predicted Reich would be a disaster.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

As I've said a dozen time my #1 preferred outcome was trading out of the 1st to recoup a 3rd, then double dipping at WR in the 2nd round. We are on track to do exactly that. So I find myself one of the only Bills fans that is not just okay with what we did but elated. I just can't bring myself to care about the Chiefs getting Worthy when I'm very confident they would have gotten him one way or another if he was their guy.

 

I have been saying here for weeks that I wanted them to do this as well - slide down and double-dip.  But I do care about what the Chiefs are getting.  Maybe they're in my head but it's not just their coaches who have been running circles around ours (as you've been saying), it's their pro personnel dept. too.  Two years ago both the Bills and Chiefs needed a corner - the Chiefs traded ahead of the Bills for McDuffie (whom the Bills may or may not have wanted) and we got the worse player in Elam.  Last night the Bills and Chiefs again shared a premium need and again the Chiefs maneuvered ahead of us to take their pick at that position - and we helped them do it!  And given the new ST rules, Worthy's floor is already an elite returner.  The trade value chart does not include the negative value of helping your key rival get the player they want.  Yes, maybe they would've gotten him anyway but maybe they're just better at all of this than the Bills are - they certainly have the receipts for that idea.

 

Not that I was nuts about Worthy.  I think he'll be a great ST'er at minimum and will probably excel in Reid's offense.  And the Bills tried and failed last year at incorporating a small fast guy into their offense (Harty) and couldn't do it.  But I just cannot believe that Beane would risk trading with the Chiefs and letting them get their guy - if Worthy wins Offensive Player of the Year, how does Beane account for himself to Pegula?  Or maybe he doesn't have to - that was the worst feeling I had last night, the notion that a move like that proves that no one is actually holding Beane accountable.  In a highly competitive business like the NFL you just don't see those kinds of deals because the ramifications of being wrong aren't worth the upside (a Day 3 pick).

Edited April 26 by Coach Tuesday

[HappyDays]

39 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

But I do care about what the Chiefs are getting.  Maybe they're in my head but it's not just their coaches who have been running circles around ours (as you've been saying), it's their pro personnel dept. too.  Two years ago both the Bills and Chiefs needed a corner - the Chiefs traded ahead of the Bills for McDuffie (whom the Bills may or may not have wanted) and we got the worse player in Elam.  Last night the Bills and Chiefs again shared a premium need and again the Chiefs maneuvered ahead of us to take their pick at that position - and we helped them do it!

 

Yeah I get it. But I agree with what Beane said last night - you stick to your board and make the best decision for the Buffalo Bills. I don't want him flinching and making a wrong decision because he's scared of KC.

 

If we had stuck at #28, I think by far the most likely scenario is we would have taken whoever we end up taking at #33 tonight, and then the Chiefs would have traded up to #29 or done whatever they needed to get Worthy. In that scenario they'd still get their guy and we wouldn't have a 3rd round pick. There's just no reason other than irrational anxiety not to take the free 3rd round pick at that point.

 

And I come away respecting Beane for willing to make a move that LOOKS crazy to everybody, but logically makes a ton of sense. He didn't flinch, like he did when he traded up for Elam for example.

 

Edited April 26 by HappyDays

[BuffaloBaumer]

5 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

I wouldn't be shocked if Beane goes IOL here. Unless this class is historically weak, the best Cs and Gs in the draft are still on the board.

 

 

I would love that move.

[section122]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah I don't want to trade down again. Stick and pick the best WR on your board. We don't need more picks. If anything we need to part with some of our day three picks. No way we are making four picks in R5. I expect us to draft two players by #55, pick another player in the mid-80s(ish), and ultimately make something like four total picks on day three. Last year we picked 6 players so picking 7 this year sounds about right, and we have 10 total picks to use to move up the board and make sure we get guys that we like.

 

 

There are 4 WRs I still am comfortable with.  McConkey, Franklin, Coleman, and Mitchell.  Therefore I could tolerate another trade back to 36 and still guarantee to get one of the guys I am happy with.