2024 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Day 1 is in the books! Compared to the absolute bonkers nature of last year's first round this was relatively mild and predictable. As expected the three Quarterbacks that were projected to be the first three picks went in exactly that order. While the Michael Penix Jnr pick from Atlanta at #8 was genuinely shocking (well done to them for keeping that under wraps.... the first sense that it even might happen was in the half hour before the draft began) it was a team picking at their designated spot and without trading up. Last year saw five draft night trades in the top half of round one. This year saw one and it was just the Vikings doing the old pick switcharoo with the Jets from #11 to #10. So not quite the sense of fun and fireworks in 2024 but let's get to breaking it down...

 

The Bills Pick Trades

Okay so despite some of us across the pond sitting up until it was already light Brandon Beane and co declined to make a pick in the first round of the NFL draft. Before I get onto the actual nature of the two trade downs worth reflecting that Brandon Beane has possessed 8 first round selections in his 7 years as Bills GM (because he inherited two that first year from the McDermott/Whaley trade back with Kansas City that became Patrick Mahomes). On only two occasions has he stood pat and used the pick he had - 2019 on Ed Oliver and 2021 on Greg Rousseau. He has traded up four times (Allen and Edmunds in '18; Elam in '22 and Kincaid in '23) and has now traded out of round one twice (2020 for Diggs in a trade and last night). At this stage I think it is pretty clear to make the assessment that he is not, by his nature, a "let the board come to him" General Manager. He is a guy who has very specific targets and moves around the draft to try and create value at the spots that he selects guys. I don't make any further comment on that at this stage. It is probably a topic that merits further consideration in terms of the effectiveness of that strategy. But I thought it was an interesting angle on this that maybe didn't jump out to me until I reflected this morning. 

 

So onto the trades themselves. Let me say whenever a GM with a pick near the end of a round trades back, and particularity when they do it twice, it tells me their board is out of grades in that specific round. I honestly believe the Bills have no first round grades left. Not just none at receiver. No first round grades. If they had a guy with a true first still on the board I think they would have picked. Even if not at #28 then at #32. You don't give up the extra year of control you get on those first round players if you think you have a guy that is genuinely at that level of talent. But having listened to Beane's presser this was also somewhat about filling holes for them. They think they need to get multiple starters out of this draft it is pretty evident to me and they felt like they have to get more picks higher up than they had. As I said in my compendium thread yesterday the drop off in this class comes between 100 and 120. The Bills had only two picks in that range and one on the fringe (#128). They now have three and still have that fringe pick with the ability to package one or two fifth rounders with that to move inside that top 120 again and get four guys who have a chance to really contribute as rookies.

 

I feel differently about the two trades. The first, which let's be clear was moving BACK with Kansas City four spots in round 1 to move UP 38 spots from the bottom of round 4 to the bottom of round 3 and UP 27 picks from the end of round 7 to the top of it, worked out as a Bills win by the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart - to get up 70 points the Chiefs gave up 82 - but a slight Chiefs win by the Rich Hill chart where to get up 27 points they gave up 25. My take on that trade is I don't like the process but I don't mind the outcome. I do not like the idea of the Bills making it easier for the team that they are chasing in the AFC to build their roster the way they want to build it. I actually had a thought exercise in one of the mock sims where the Chiefs wanted to get up and basically my position was I want your second round pick to be willing to do it (I sent a 4th or a 5th back can't recall). They took Xavier Worthy who was not my favourite fit for the Bills for a number of reasons - ability to get off press, ability to play as primarily an outside guy, lack of physicality given that is what seems to hurt us year after year in the playoffs etc. The fact I think he is a good fit for a Kansas City team trying to rediscover its fastball on offense is neither here nor there for me it is the principle of being open to doing business with the team you are trying to catch. That said, as others have pointed out there was a limited chance that he was going to get picked by the three teams behind us (the 9ers might have been the wildcard given they eventually went Pearsall, I know some people had speculated on Dallas but they were OT all the way IMO) and if we weren't interested in him might as well get the pick value the Chiefs were willing to give you. The second trade, moving back one spot with Carolina who by the Johnson chart gave up 24.5 points to get up 10 points and by the Hill chart gave up 9 points to get up 4 points, was an even clearer Bills win and in principle when you don't have a true first round grade left on your board (and as I explain above I'm certain they didn't) is a trade you should always make. Especially when your mate and former assistant is the GM of the team you are trading with. I all but guarantee Dan Morgan told Beane who he was going to draft there before Beane signed off on it and it wasn't his guy. I didn't like the outcome though. Xavier Legette was my WR4. After the big 3 he was the guy I had the highest grade on. I stood firm on him being a first round talent when after the Senior Bowl there were some well respected guys talking about him as a 3rd round type. I accept that ultimately the Bills felt differently about him. But I think the kid is going to be a stud and if Bryce Young can get him the ball the Panthers are going to be very happy with their pick.

 

My Mock

I set a new personal best for 28 of the 32 correctly mocked in round one. As I said at the start I think it was a reasonably predictable year so that definitely played a part but after hitting 27 the last two years I'm happy to go one better with 28. The four I missed - Bo Nix who I wish I'd stuck to my guns on; Darius Robinson who I knew was a potential first rounder after he was invited to the draft but to me him ahead of Johnny Newton is batshit crazy; Ricky Pearsall who genuinely did surprise me; and Xavier Legette who I had pretty much assumed was going #33 to Carolina and if I'd carried on to cover teams who didn't have a first I'd have made that connection. 

 

I had 6 exact player and team matches which is about my average. The first four were pretty easy, the other two for me were McCarthy to Minnesota and Tyler Guyton to Dallas. I had a further nine right position wrong player - particularly just with the order the tackles, corners and edge guys came off the board. I will score it by the Fantasy Draft Pros scoring formula later (I'd have ranked top 25 last year if thrown in with all the pros) and while I think I'll be high scoring again I think it will be a high scoring year overall.

 

Player(s) I was high on...

So the two guys I was higher than the consensus on all the way through in terms of having first grades on them were Jordan Morgan (who was mocked in the late first range a fair bit as the process went on but a lot of people saw him as more a second round grade) and Xavier Legette. I feel a certain vindication that both went last night. But I do still have three of my first round grades on the board (interestingly all five of my borderline firsts are gone) in Johnny Newton, Cooper DeJean and Kool-Aid McKinstry. I'm most surprised about Kool-Aid of the three even though he was the lowest grade of the three for me. Newton has had injuries and some teams will have size concerns and despite him having outstanding tape the mood music was that he could slip into early day two and Cooper DeJean is also coming off injury and is that kind of hybrid guy who some teams might just struggle to see a fit for. McKinstry in the end I think is just a victim of how late the corner run started. He was the 4th best pure corner and because some of those teams who might have gone corner early went in other directions ultimately it ended up that only three went off the board. 

 

Player(s) I was down on...

The lowest ranked player to be selected last night by my board was JJ McCarthy. My reasons for not being super high on him are set out in my Quarterback evaluations thread and he ended up #84 on my board. But I expected him to go and we will see whether Minnesota were right to take a chance of a guy with a great deal of variance in outcome given the lack of volume as a passer in college. The next lowest was Darius Robinson who was ranked 63rd on my board. I just don't know what he is. At least he got taken by a 3-4 team because I think his best shot is as a defensive end in a three man front - a 5T type role. I give the kid credit he had a great Senior Bowl and a great Combine. He has aced the process. But I don't see a first round player on tape. He has a third round grade for me. Some natural physical ability but a lack of refined technique and no obvious NFL role fit. Let's see if Arizona can make it work out. 

 

Biggest shock of the night

Easily Michael Penix Jnr to the Falcons at #8. I like Penix. He was my QB3 after Williams and Maye. If you want a pure, conventional, pocket passer who throws the ball down the football field and doesn't need a load of gimmicky ways to get the ball out of his hands then Michael Penix is for you. He actually has some Kirk Cousins to his game which is ironic because Kirk Cousins is the guy he will now go and back up in Atlanta. Where it is strange to me is taking a guy who is an older prospect, already 24, and asking him to sit behind a guy you just gave a 4 year $180m deal to. Even if Penix sits for two years (by which time he will be 26) and then they are able to trade Kirk (who by that point will be 38) they will still end up with $25m in dead cap. In a sense I congratulate them for being aggressive at the Quarterback spot. That is the way to play the game when there is a guy there you like and your guy is older than 35 - I said it when the Packers took Jordan Love and it worked out in the end for them. And I certainly don't shed any tears for Kirk Cousins who has played the business of the NFL pretty well himself and has to accept when teams do the same. But overall it is certainly an odd approach to managing the QB position from the Falcons. That said, watching Desmond Ridder try and play Quarterback in the NFL that last two years is bound to give you a sense of urgency at the spot  

 

Worst Pick

I hate what the Raiders did. Hate it. Okay, they were probably planning to take Penix, thought they were safe to wait until #13 for him and then wham the Falcons gazump them. But for a team with so many major holes to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight is just baffling to me. They have basically one proven player on their offensive line in Kolton Miller but refused to take advantage of the excellent tackle class. Their starting corners are Jack Jones who even Bill Belichick couldn't turn into a serviceable DB and was picked up off waivers from New England and a guy name Jakorian Bennett (no? me neither) and yet they pass on Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. Hell I think wide receiver would have been a luxury pick but at least there you can say well their #1 in Devante Adams turns 32 during next season and might be coming to the end. This is nothing against Brock Bowers. In the 11 seasons I have been doing this he became only the third tight end I had a true 1st round grade on. He is a good player. I wish him well. But for a team with holes at the spots that most impact you winning and losing football games to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight end when the board was as it was? Speechless. Dumb, dumb move. 

 

Big Board Check

I know, the Bills haven't picked yet and go into day 2 with the first pick of the night at #33 this is the bit you all care about.... I don't think it is a lock we pick at #33 either based on Beane saying they "have already taken calls" and you do quite often see teams overpay for #33 and #34 when they re=set their boards after day 1 and convince themselves there is a can't miss guy at the top. I actually think Newton IS a can't miss guy as well for any team whose best defender isn't already their 3T.... the question is how much further is Beane willing to move back. Anyway - here is my top 15 remaining as we stand right now:

 

1. Jer'Zhan Newton*, DT, Illinois

2. Cooper DeJean*, CB, Iowa

3. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

4. Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon

5. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

6. Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota

7. Braden Fiske, DT, FSU

8. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

9. Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri

10. Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington

11. Kamarri Lassiter, CB, Georgia

12. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

13. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

14. Payton Wilson, LB, NC State

15. Christian Haynes, IOL, UConn

 

And as a bonus feature.... if I had to predict what the Bills do at #33 it would be select Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon. I'd pick Mitchell but my gut is telling my they are going Franklin. 

 

Enjoy day 2 folks. I'll be back to debrief tomorrow!

 

[Sweats]

So, this draft actually kind of fell just about where everyone thought it would......except the Bills not making a move for a WR, Penix going to the Falcons (still a head scratcher), but regardless, not a whole lot of surprises or teams jockeying for position.

 

I was hoping for the draft of a lifetime..........in my opinion, this day one was a dud.

[Htt2821]

10 minutes ago, Sweats said:

So, this draft actually kind of fell just about where everyone thought it would......except the Bills not making a move for a WR, Penix going to the Falcons (still a head scratcher), but regardless, not a whole lot of surprises or teams jockeying for position.

 

I was hoping for the draft of a lifetime..........in my opinion, this day one was a dud.

A dud…after one round? That’s wild. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

12 minutes ago, Sweats said:

So, this draft actually kind of fell just about where everyone thought it would......except the Bills not making a move for a WR, Penix going to the Falcons (still a head scratcher), but regardless, not a whole lot of surprises or teams jockeying for position.

 

I was hoping for the draft of a lifetime..........in my opinion, this day one was a dud.

Just curious, my friend. Are you the kind of person that reads the first paragraph of a book and says "Nope, this book is bad" and tosses it aside? Or watch 5 minutes of a movie and say..."Wow, what a dud" and turn it off?

 

Instead of reaching on a WR or S/CB or DT that they didn't likely have valued at a round 1 pick they used round 1 to set up round 2. Let the day play out today. It could very possibly turn out bad, sure. But where we had 1 day 2 pick we now have 3 and the ammunition to slide as far up as we want at any given time. And I don't think they are done moving back. I don't see them picking at 33. I'm saying they make another small trade back with Washington and increase their pick value even more before unleashing hades on the next 2 rounds. 

[Sweats]

9 minutes ago, Htt2821 said:

A dud…after one round? That’s wild. 

 

 

 

round 1 for me was a dud.........i didn't say the whole draft............round 1

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

round 1 for me was a dud.........i didn't say the whole draft............round 1

 

And I think you were also meaning across the board, right? As an entertainment product not as "this is a dud for the Bills".

[eball]

My overly simplistic analysis of Beane’s moves is that he moved down 5 spots to pick up 124.  Seems like a pretty good deal if he wasn’t sold on picking in the 1st round.  If the Bills keep their picks we’re getting two in the 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th, and then four in the 5th.

 

(edited to correct remaining picks)

 

Edited April 26 by eball

[Sweats]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Just curious, my friend. Are you the kind of person that reads the first paragraph of a book and says "Nope, this book is bad" and tosses it aside? Or watch 5 minutes of a movie and say..."Wow, what a dud" and turn it off?

 

Instead of reaching on a WR or S/CB or DT that they didn't likely have valued at a round 1 pick they used round 1 to set up round 2. Let the day play out today. It could very possibly turn out bad, sure. But where we had 1 day 2 pick we now have 3 and the ammunition to slide as far up as we want at any given time. And I don't think they are done moving back. I don't see them picking at 33. I'm saying they make another small trade back with Washington and increase their pick value even more before unleashing hades on the next 2 rounds. 

 

 

 

 

Dude, i got wicked ADHD and can barely make it through reading the first sentence of anything before my mind goes in 12 different directions (as you may or may not have seen in my previous posts where i begin with one thought and end up completely off the tracks).

 

I have no problem with what our FO did last night. I'm just saying that i was hoping for a little more sizzle in the pan in the first round from any franchise last night.....that's it.

I went into it expecting trades, wheeling and dealing, franchises in shambles, crying, picking up the broken pieces, etc......i saw a predictable 1st round and there's nothing wrong with that.

 

I'm the type of guy that hangs out around the highway overpass, just waiting for 2 cars to collide......it never happens, but it could.......maybe one day, it could. Same thing with the first round of every draft, just waiting for something big to happen......

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And I think you were also meaning across the board, right? As an entertainment product not as "this is a dud for the Bills".

 

 

 

 

......across the board, it was a very safe, predictable first round

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

Dude, i got wicked ADHD and can barely make it through reading the first sentence of anything before my mind goes in 12 different directions (as you may or may not have seen in my previous posts where i begin with one thought and end up completely off the tracks).

 

I have no problem with what our FO did last night. I'm just saying that i was hoping for a little more sizzle in the pan in the first round from any franchise last night.....that's it.

I went into it expecting trades, wheeling and dealing, franchises in shambles, crying, picking up the broken pieces, etc......i saw a predictable 1st round and there's nothing wrong with that.

 

I'm the type of guy that hangs out around the highway overpass, just waiting for 2 cars to collide......it never happens, but it could.......maybe one day, it could. Same thing with the first round of every draft, just waiting for something big to happen......

 

 

 

 

......across the board, it was a very safe, predictable first round

At least you got the Penix to the Falcons pick. That was one heck of a car wreck🤣

Edited April 26 by BuffaloBillyG

[UKBillFan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

And I think you were also meaning across the board, right? As an entertainment product not as "this is a dud for the Bills".

 

From a personal point of view I think the Bills actually made it interesting with the trade backs. And I feel far better about this compared to at the time, when the Chiefs chose Worthy. It's clear the downside didn't suit the offense the Bills are trying to build and it's highly likely Worthy would have got the Chiefs anyway, dependent how the 49ers valued him compared to Pearsall. The latter is 40kg heavier so it's possible they wanted someone with more bulk from the off, and Worthy would have been passed on. Instead, the Bills get a return to the 3rd round out of it.

 

I never felt the Bills were in for Legette. My only wish there was we had extracted slightly more from Panthers considering the only reason they'd swap is for the fifth year deal. Otherwise they could have sat at 33 and took him. 

 

Interesting what happens now, and even if I wasn't a Bills fan, I'd say their next move is the most intriguing one. Do they draft, do they trade back or does Beane have a player already in the NFL in mind? Aiyuk? Sutton?

[GunnerBill]

2023 was always going to hard to top. That was possibly my favourite first round of all time for drama, unpredictability and excitement. 

 

I wonder if there is something that correlates strenght of class and drama. In a stronger first round like this teams a lot more willing to wait and let the board fall. Not the same urgency to get up for a specific guy. Whereas in a weak class like last year where everyone agreed true first round grades were scarce teams were much more aggressive in trying to get "their guy" and maximise the impact of that premium asset in a shallow pool.

[Htt2821]

30 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

round 1 for me was a dud.........i didn't say the whole draft............round 1

Fair…I’m more of a big picture guy so seeing gut reactions on here is always facinating. 

[Coffeesforclosers]

I wouldn't be shocked if Beane goes IOL here. Unless this class is historically weak, the best Cs and Gs in the draft are still on the board.

 

 

[Dave_Bills]

Thanks for this. Great stuff. Is there any possibility Beane goes corner? 
 

I don’t think they do but I don’t think the probability is 0%

[MJS]

Hoping for Ladd McConkey now, or Troy Franklin. I got too attached to the idea of Xavier Legette. I'll be following him to see what he actually does in the NFL, especially since it surprised me how so many people were down on him. He looked pretty good to me.

 

I'm sure he would have rather come to the Bills than the Panthers, though...

[HappyDays]

As I've said a dozen time my #1 preferred outcome was trading out of the 1st to recoup a 3rd, then double dipping at WR in the 2nd round. We are on track to do exactly that. So I find myself one of the only Bills fans that is not just okay with what we did but elated. I just can't bring myself to care about the Chiefs getting Worthy when I'm very confident they would have gotten him one way or another if he was their guy.

[DCOrange]

I think if it were me, I'd be willing to move down to 35 or 36 and see which WRs come off the board again, but I'm guessing Beane feels like his mission to get some better Day 2/3 picks was accomplished and doesn't want to wait any longer to get their guy. Whether that's a WR or not is anyone's guess. My gut feeling right now would be that we take a WR at #33 (assuming we don't trade the pick for a veteran).

 

Hoping for Franklin or Coleman and my gut feeling is it's Coleman.

 

My sort of read of the remaining WRs:

• Mitchell is the best available in most people's eyes. Not for me personally, and I question if Beane views him as a fit for us, but in terms of the X WR skillset, Mitchell has the potential to be everything you're looking for.
• Coleman, Polk, McConkey, and Roman Wilson feel like Bills-types. I don't think Wilson really fits what we need and I question it a bit with McConkey as well, but he is a little more positionally flexible.
• I like Franklin a lot. Struggles with getting jammed at the line of scrimmage, so not sure how well he'll fit as an X, but he can really turn DBs around with his releases when they don't get their hands on him. He could be an X and could be a great WR IMO. He's sort of the analytics darling though and that's not usually what Beane chases.

Edited April 26 by DCOrange

[BuffaloBillyG]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

As I've said a dozen time my #1 preferred outcome was trading out of the 1st to recoup a 3rd, then double dipping at WR in the 2nd round. We are on track to do exactly that. So I find myself one of the only Bills fans that is not just okay with what we did but elated. I just can't bring myself to care about the Chiefs getting Worthy when I'm very confident they would have gotten him one way or another if he was their guy.

Agree that may well be what we do. The fact of Cooper DeJean still being there is a real threat to that plan, however IMO. 

 

I don't know if I see Beane punting on WRs in round 1 to take 2 in round 2. Could just as easily see him going: DeJean -> Franklin/Wilson -> mid level FA vet (A DJ Chark level) in the next few days.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

My only wish there was we had extracted slightly more from Panthers considering the only reason they'd swap is for the fifth year deal. Otherwise they could have sat at 33 and took him. 

 

It's not about the 5th year option at all. When teams move one slot up the board, they are making sure another team doesn't jump them for the same player. Beane said in the presser he had calls to go back to the 40s or 50s. Moving up 59 spots on mid-day three is a very good deal that we got for basically nothing, unless of course Leggette becomes a star in which case we'll regret it. But if they didn't value him in the 1st round it was a no brainer.

 

Edited April 26 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think if it were me, I'd be willing to move down to 35 or 36 and see which WRs come off the board again, but I'm guessing Beane feels like his mission to get some better Day 2/3 picks was accomplished and doesn't want to wait any longer to get their guy. Whether that's a WR or not is anyone's guess. My gut feeling right now would be that we take a WR at #33 (assuming we don't trade the pick for a veteran).

 

Hoping for Franklin or Coleman and my gut feeling is it's Coleman.

 

My sort of read of the remaining WRs:

• Mitchell is the best available in most people's eyes. Not for me personally, and I question if Beane views him as a fit for us, but in terms of the X WR skillset, Mitchell has the potential to be everything you're looking for.
• Coleman, Polk, McConkey, and Roman Wilson feel like Bills-types. I don't think Wilson really fits what we need and I question it a bit with McConkey as well, but he is a little more positionally flexible.
• I like Franklin a lot. Struggles with getting jammed at the line of scrimmage, so not sure how well he'll fit as an X, but he can really turn DBs around with his releases when they don't get their hands on him. He could be an X and could be a great WR IMO. He's sort of the analytics darling though and that's not usually what Beane chases.

 

Interesting. I see it differently on Franklin (and I'm not as high on him as you) in that I think he might be their type. There is some similarity for me in him and Jordan Addison last years, slight frame, speed, separates even vs man coverage. There are some differences too - Addison's hands are better and he is a much better and more developed route runner, but Franklin can be used more vertically. But they loved Addison and I was told in no uncertain terms if he made it to them he was the pick. I dunno. It's all tea leaf reading at this stage but I think Franklin is their guy. They have done a lot of work with him, met him three times. 

 

I like your idea of trading down once more nor more than 3 or max 4 spots UNLESS their guy is AD Mitchell but I don't think it is. I think if the Bills were into Mitchell, DeJean or McKinstry they'd have pulled the trigger on them last night. All 3 are guys who could be the consensus have gone in the late first area. If any of those are your guy you don't mess about you turn the card in. Which is another thing that makes me think Franklin.... if he is who you have your eye on the risk in the two trades last night was negligible. 

 

Only 7 more hours to wait  

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Agree that may well be what we do. The fact of Cooper DeJean still being there is a real threat to that plan, however IMO. 

 

I don't know if I see Beane punting on WRs in round 1 to take 2 in round 2. Could just as easily see him going: DeJean -> Franklin/Wilson -> mid level FA vet (A DJ Chark level) in the next few days.

 

If they wanted Cooper DeJean would they risk trading back? He is a kind of unique hybrid type in this class. If he was your guy you don't risk someone else taking him because there isn't another guy with that skillset you can just fall back on. I might be totally wrong but after the trade backs I am confident it is not DeJean. I thought he could be in play at #28. I don't now.